ziknik

Yes, I agree. I say the Right Move survey is not meaningful every time I comment on it. I do accept it as a useful indicator of sentiment (more so on the way down), but nothing more than that. I’m aware that September/October is a usually an UP month, but we are also seeing YoY gains from 2009 to 2010. This YoY has grown in October when compare to September. As you know, YoY takes out all the normal seasonality so it’s not enough to use seasonals as an excuse to knock down the indicated sentiment. From your table: Sep 2009 £223,996 Sep 2010 £ 229,767 =2.6% YoY Oct 2009 £ 230,184 Oct 2010 £236,849 =2.9% YoY

Rightmove UP 3% today, London UP 5%.

I don't agree. Most people didn't work it out in the 70's. Why is it different this time? 'Real' can be calculated in many ways. C/RPI or gold or M4 or other money/credit supply measure. I'll need the gold prices to work out the real value of 'x'

Yes, you would certainly get a dis-believing-type-reaction from me if you claimed houses would fall 80% in the next couple of years. BUT, I don't completely rule it out. It's not impossible I suppose. However, I think it is less likely than a 30% fall over the next 2/3 years

Yes I agree. A negative RM index shows more than a positive one. Are the Haliwide indexes time shifted on them charts?

I believe* the CML data includes re-mortgaging and therefore it should come as no surprise that people don’t want to re-mortgage on less favourable terms. The headline should read “People not dumb enough to pay more for the same thing”. * I can’t check to be 100% certain atm.

RightMove is the ‘delusion’ index that ignores all the properties which have been on the market for more than 30 days. If you were designing an index of asking prices, would you ignore most of the asking prices? I accept it is an indicator of sentiment but nothing more than that. The Daily Mail is a better indicator of sentiment. In my experience of buying a house last year, a lot of properties did not have a HIP. Now that the HIP law has been pulled, most of these properties are being re-listed as ‘new’. Considering all the price cuts over the past year, this will pull the RightMove index down without any change to the asking prices of ALL the properties on RightMove. I accept your point about the RICS survey. This one is actually a reasonable piece of evidence. BTW, Have you seen my RightMove survey? http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=183870

Did you get any dividends payments in the 1/2 year(s) you held? http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6192

I love the way RightMove is seen as a flawed survey on the way UP and gospel on the way DOWN.

Are Kirsty, Phil & the Location team registered with the FSA to give investment advice? They are clearly dishing out investment advice week after week but I can't find them on the FSA register. Anyone know if they are breaking the law?

Given that they are selling one for a similar price, it makes sense to put in an offer just below stamp duty and allow theirs to sell at the same price. Waiting for a 20% drop will mean theirs will drop 20% too so they’ve not got anything to gain by waiting. Get it over and done with.

No, Wren hasn't been on 24K for nearly 2 months

OFF TOPIC: Does anyone know why/where Wren has gone?

If things stay as they are now, the SLS can probably be closed as a lot of the dodgy assets have increased in price over the last 10 months.

You'd need total panic in the bond market to cause the price of SVR mortgages to go up. Bond prices are normally linked to fixed rate mortgages, rising bond prices lead to rising fixed rate mortgages (for new customers) fairly quickly and directly.

Yes that's right. It tells us that the first base rate rise will be 0.1% or 0.05%. Anyone expecting a 0.25% rise (50% increase) is living in dream land.

You made your decision to sell using the best information available at the time and you were probably right to do so. You couldn’t have known the scale of fiscal stimulus and the slashing of interest rates. Even the people who predicted interest rate falls have been surprised at the way they’ve been kept down while inflation is (and forecast to be) over the BofEs target. If I was you, I would forget about the old house. You cannot change the present situation and you probably cannot learn anything from it either. Instead, I would have a good review of my investment choices, pick out successes & failures and examine the reasons for success & failure. Judge whether success or failure will be realised on your existing investments. There’s a lot more to be gained from this exercise and it will help you going forwards. I’m someone will come along in a bit and mention the horrific crash that’s coming round the corner. The truth is it might not come for some time yet so you have to work hard and make your investments outperform housing whether HPI is positive or negative.

While checking I noticed AEI is going to be scrapped. You might want to pick out a new measure and start updating your charts. The Average Earnings Index (AEI) is an indicator of how fast earnings are growing in Great Britain. It is no longer the lead measure of short term changes in earnings, having been replaced by the Average Weekly Earnings Statistic in January 2010. The Average Earnings Index will be discontinued after September 2010. EDIT Link http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=304

I've double checked. It does include bonuses. AEI: Whole economy SA inc bonus: Index 2000=100: GB Seasonally adjusted 2000 = 100 Industry: 01-93 Updated on 18/ 6/2010 I am surprised to see the rate of growth reducing,

Does LMNQ exclude bonuses?

(This is actually a very bearish story if you pick through it) U.K. house prices edge higher in May: RICS ... The RICS survey found a net balance of 22% of surveyors reported a rise rather than a fall in house prices in May, up from 17% in April. ... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-house-...nk=MW_news_stmp

House price inflation back to 10%, government says Annual house price inflation is back in double-digits, according to government figures. The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) said prices in April were 10.1% higher than a year ago. ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10317283.stm

^^^ Further reading http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....t=0&p=87810

Gordon didn’t remove mortgage interest from the inflation target… they were never included in the first place. Historically, the BofE/Treasury used RPIx (that’s RPI excluding mortgages) Including mortgage interest in price inflation target causes a positive feedback loop. Interest rates increase => mortgage prices increase => increase in RPI => interest rate increase. The same is true the other way round Interest rates decrease => mortgage prices decrease => decrease in RPI => interest rate decrease. Gordon replaced the RPIx target with CPI…. And TBH, I don’t know if this is as big an issue as people make out. As for holding down rates – globalisation held down rates more than Gordon could have. It was the cheap goods from China (etc) that held down our C/RPI EDIT: there’s a lot more to this that I haven’t really touched upon for simplicity. I’m sure someone will fill in some of the missing bits later.

Everyones' input is most welcome I agree with what you have written. Things will be tough for many people..... however, this could lead to interest rates being held low and anyone with a disposable incomes may sail through the though years. In any case, you have to live somewhere and I hope everyone is sufficiently insulated from the potential of rent increases EDIT: It's also worth remembering that prices are actually increasing at present.