surfdude

Which developers are you interested in particular - Henderson, Cheung Kong, Nan Fung? Do you think the slow moving train wreak called the Euro zone will bring world indices down further? I can see a deeper slide throughout October as Greece and others stumble.

From the recent Martin Armstrong thread: The thing I like about Martin Armstrong is that he can explain sophisticated problems in a clear way that is easy to grasp. His commentary on the doomed Euro was enlightening. Of interest were his scenarios for gold: 1. gold blasts off to new highs in a parabolic move that exhausts itself prematurely followed by a severe correction after next year. 2. gold continues to correct to key support in the $1400-1450 area and consolidates over the next 6 months into July when a reversal comes. He sees the final highs coming in 2016 and could reach $5000 (or higher). How to spot the blow off top: a doubling that occurs within a short period of time (weeks) like what happened in 1980 when it went from 400 to 800.

Even Cheaper today - HSI down by 4.5% I think we could be testing 15,000 - 16,000 this week.

It will be interesting if anyone will buy at those prices. Perhaps they will have a "soft" opening where they limit the number of flats available allowing them to test the waters. If the sale is a failure it could be a turn is in place. Another catalyst could be the global economy which seems to be turning downward. Global indices hugely down and I could see it tracking this way into August as the US deals with its debt ceiling issue - not alot of confidence with that overhang.

Fred Harrison has written a detailed book showing how property cycles around the world generally follow an 18 year period. The top in Hk during the last cycle was July 1997, the real bottom was the SARS low in 2003. The Take-off phase started from there. I agree there could be a few more growth years before we hit the blow off top but we are not far away. People buying in now are taking on a lot of potential risk as we are getting late in the cycle. I believe patience is the order of the day. Read in the paper today that many Chinese firms can't get financing from the Mainland and are turning to Hedge Funds to help them meet margin calls. Some are borrowing at the extortinate rates of 60% per annum.

I am also amazed at how people line up for hours and spend their life savings on tiny apartments on offer from SHK or Cheung Kong but HK is ruled by the herd mentality. I wonder if these people will be buying high and selling low as many did in '97 and then in '02-'03. Perhaps we are entering the delusional stage where people are still chasing profits. Personally I thnk it is bad to enter a market which has been going up for some time with the thinking of not wanting to miss out on the potential gains - seems just mad to me. Better to wait for a healthy correction and then enter the market when it stabilizes.

Many good points raised and I am enjoying the discussion. Not sure if you noticed the editorial on page 2 of today's Standard but guess who was pictured - none other than Tung Chee-hwa and the topic mirrored the aticle Thelliand's posted yesterday. Indeed, Property is cyclical and we are approaching that part of the cycle when government are taking actions to meet the housing needs of the populace just like back in 1997. Yes, property developers are buying at sky high prices but I think they hold a more long term view for their business and they will happily increase their land bank and sit on it if there is a correction until we are back in the sweet spot of the cycle. They will continue to sell their existing built property inventories at these sky high prices for as long as they can. Given a long enough time horizon they will make money on the land deals they are brokering now. IPO's could also be a good bell weather with a multitude of them listing during exuberant times - many recent IPO's have been opening poorly though - Glencore, Hui Xian property Reit... Wish I had bought into Milan Station though... Certainly, there were plenty of IPO's in 2008. A glut you could say and few to none in 2009. China indeed could be the catalyst. Did you notice Joseph Yam's comments that China will make a determined fight against inflation and return to positive real rates of interest by year's end? They will continue to raise interest rates along with other measures to reach this goal. The easy money could be drying up in China resulting in lower bids on property.

Another indicator could be if this thread goes hot. The old HK property thread went dead for over a year during the boom. I guess there is nothing to talk about when property was chugging along and making new highs.

Thanks for adding your perspective Thelliand and agree that article from 97 is just as appropriate today. Developers are indeed a bellweather for property and Dr. Bubb likes Henderson in particular. I also remember him saying that first sales volume drops and this is followed by price. I think the debacle happening in Europe, specifically debt pressures, could be the catalyst that begins the correction in HK property (that I believe is due). There could be big drops in property offer prices by the fall.

I live in TC and have been there for going on 7 years now. It is a great place for families and the outdoors. Lots of joggers, hikers and cyclists. The commute to Central on the train is about 30 minutes to IFC - not bad by my standards. There are some decent restaurants (novotel) and the golf course at the airport is close. I looked at LB2 when they were showcasing it - the build quality looks quite good and the appliances were flash but I wouldn't pay the premium over the other estates. Best to go have a look.

That we believe that there is still a lot of life in the property market and buy back in at these levels...

Congratulations Yellow Tip on booking a very healthy profit. I agree with desertorchid and believe we are in the mania phase and many people are feeling priced out of the market. Hk property market can be quite fickle and a catalyst could bring a significant correction to the market - which I think would be healthy to the market. I think we are in the greed stage.

HK only gets 1-4% of its food from Japan. Alot of this will come from Kyushu, Southern Honshu and will be fine but I suspect people may be reluctant to buy it. Food supplies will continue to flow from China (maybe not salt), thailand, philipines,Brazil... I am not sure a food crunch will come to HK. However, it may be prudent to have on hand some supplies in case of emergencies (black swan event). Drinking water, sack of rice, pocketknife, flashlight...

Here's more from the same blog: HK Property, beginning of the end Major banks in Hong Kong increased mortgage rates last week, and some other banks followed this week. Interest rates hikes by these banks have nothing to do with interest rates in the United States. Even with the currency peg, the belief that interest rates in Hong Kong will follow that of the United States is simply a fallacy, so it should not be surprising to see rates going up before the Fed. There is no major indication that funds are flowing away from Hong Kong despite the apparent weakness in Hong Kong dollar: HIBOR is still very low, and money supply actually rose back slightly in January. Some feared that Japan’s earthquake may cause funds to flow out of Hong Kong. Hong Kong Property Market is definitely a bubble being inflated by monetary expansion and the illusion of low supply, what it needs now is something to trigger the burst of it. Although such a rise shouldn’t be a great concern (for now), the fact that real estate prices have risen so much in the past 2 years makes Hong Kong property a very risky investment indeed, and such rise in interest rates weighs on sentiment. Together with the impact of Japan’s earthquake, market sentiment dropped over the weekend and transaction volume fell, and the stock market crash in Japan does not bode well for the property market sentiment even though the aftermath of Japan’s earthquake has very little to do with Hong Kong. Overall, these may mark the beginning of the end of the epic Hong Kong property bull market 2009-2011. Although I don’t expect any immediate huge drop in property prices, I believe the property market is now reaching its peak with very limited upside. Many salient points raised on the blog and I agree with most of them. If I were debating whether to sell or not at this time I know which way I would lean towards. I suspect the correction will come sometime in mid-year but I am not convinced that this will be the end of the bull run but rather a pause but the end could be soon if HK runs on a 14 year cycle but I believe the previous work done on this indicates a 18 year cycle. Of course these are only guidelines that are sensitive to macro events like a debt crisis.

Most of the major banks have increased their rates for HIBOR linked mortgages, albeit by a nominal amount. HIBOR rates expected to increase this week by upwards of .5%