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kernull

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Everything posted by kernull

  1. The palladium seems to be read for next run http://www.growthstockwire.com/archive/200...2008_may_13.asp but is it up or down?
  2. kernull

    GOLD

    Hi guys, I am calling for 500 buck gold this time. These are the technicals: http://seekingalpha....erm-update-2011 I am short, and this is going to be my killing trade. Bears, wish me luck. Regards
  3. kernull

    The Euro, to Hell in a handbasket?

    I am sorry, where is the old thread on USD ? Can't find it but, here is my call for 0.80 EUR/USD http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/481054-ker-nulov-gmail-com/160007-eur-usd-monthly-update Regards
  4. kernull

    GOLD

    Hi again folks, good setup to short gold right now: http://seekingalpha....h-setup-is-here p.s. I see you have got new design of the website, cool!
  5. bears won't do anything against major bull market in the dollar. it is going to ignore all the bearish techincals. I am seeing another deflationary wave coming this week, time for the dollar to rally again.
  6. this is my target for the end of the month; http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/481054-k...date-for-24-aug
  7. I believe the pullback is over now and we are ready for the third of a third. Of course there is risk of extending the trading range for more time, but it is less likely.
  8. the yen should go up for about 1 and half or 2 years more. it is used as carry trade currency and a lot of folks buy commodities with it. with collapsing commodities yen should go up until commodities deleverage again. it is in its last wave up though and going to collapse big time. I am timing it. this is the last channeling but need to be updated because the channel is wider than i drew it (the median line should be crossing at 1.0 in year 2000, this makes final top above projected 1.30) http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...yenlongterm.png
  9. ok folks, there is still few hours to the close, but the picture is pretty clear now. the dollar has broken above 82.50 an important support level, the week is closing as a strong up candle with a very short tail at the top, good sign. The stuff is selling off confirming that deflationary wave is rising. Now we are in the trading rage of 82.50-85.50. For next week I am projecting another full weekly candle up, to end around 85.50 and with the high above the range to probably 86.
  10. I was also puzzling my brain for weeks of which would be the most probable trading path for the dollar. I thought of if it would go higher than 97 , for example to 102 (as the 61.8% fo the move from 120 to 72) , but the problem is that 92.50 is 6 year old support/resistance. See what hapened right now, the dollar hit 80 falling from 89, how could this happen? Well, it had to techincally test this 30 year old support line. Now it is headed to break 92.50, it is very low probability it will leave it untested before ralying above 100. And even if it does, it would go back to 92.50. So, the most logical trade looks like a break above 92.50, then market should take a little rest and slow the volatiilty, this would match perfectly the range of 92.50-97.50 and after that another wave of upside. If it matches QE or any other stimulus attempt it would be a perfect setup. The only thing about stopping for a trading range 92.50-97.50 I don't like is that during the great depression we had no trading ranges. So, the only justification for a trading range in the middle of current depresion is that this is a bigger depression and that electronic trading and large amount of participants would allow the range to happen. i think today we are going to be flat or advance little on the dollar, and friday it should be volatile, we could make a low a the opening and then rally. Right now I think of the dollar to go to around 88 in straight line (i mean, relatively, in about 3 weeks) and then stop for a few weeks of trading range.
  11. the great dollar rally to 97.50 target has been confirmed on the daily today. Now we need to close this week as good as it started and we are going to confirm the next deflationary wave where everything should sell and the dollar rocket. This deflationary wave (according to my count) should be in 2 stages. Stage one with the dollar going to 97.50, then a pullback to 92.50 for about 6 months, and then another deflationary wave of 6 or 8 months. (I am basing on dollar channels, resistance/supports and long term trends)
  12. neither I do follow them. Only when my own calls concide. Right now I am going against Sive Morten, he thinks we can do more upside, but dollar is at 80, this is the 30 year support line, will be really surprised if it is broken. tell me about it. It have been a year since I started to work on my automatic trading system. I am sick of these artificial neurons, genetic algorithms, brains and etc.... hope some day it will be done and I will have a personal daytrader to trade for me 24/7 like goldman sachs does.
  13. folks, i think this is it, dollar has put the bottom. now the rally is calculated as 15 week long with the same target, 97.50 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/481054-k...d-timing-update
  14. I have the feeling that a big storm is coming. Markets are so slow today, on thursday. In a rising wedge with euro topping, ahead of unemployment report release. Hmmm....
  15. have you seen Sive Morten analysis i posted earlier? these guys at forex peace army, SirPipsalot and Sive Morten are true forex hackers, i recommend checking their calls.
  16. because amateurs buy/sell early in the week, professionals check how it was on monday an decide where to go on tuesday. every instrument is different. you can find it out yourself if you do some statistics, the difference between opening and closing price is the amount of professional trading, the difference between high and open + low and close is the amateur trading. you sort the data by the day of week and you get the days when professionals are more active
  17. any time, any time. I listened to Bud Rolfs monday's show at TFNN, he also expects the dollar to start a huge move up, and a big fall in commodities, this very much matches my counts. The dollar is now testing 80, the 30 year support, before breaking 92.50, the last 6 y/o resistance.
  18. stopped out last week for a 10 point profit. now put it again @ 10631. stop @ 10676, looking for tuesday to be trend reversal day. maybe i am a bit earlier here, you might want to try tomorrow at NY opening
  19. Nobody guessed the dollar bottom. I will give it last chance to start an uptrend at RBA interest rate anouncement tonight
  20. updated calculations: dollar bottom: 81.56 euro's top: 1.3107 (unless sunday we have another top by 15 pips higher or so) 97.50-81.56=15.94 15.94*173=2758 pips 1.3107-0.2758=1.0349 <- new roughly estimated euro bottom This bottom should be put before december begins, because last year we started in december, i mean, the yearly trend for 2010 was offset by one month (earlier).
  21. Sive Morten's analysis for next week: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/...ust-2010-a.html
  22. trust me you can't go against a secular trend (I mean yearly). you will see all the bearish technicalls and then sudenly out of nothing they turn bullish and market makes a new high. that happend to me with gold (until secular uptrend topped out at $1266) I agree , dollar looks bearish, and actually can go lower, but at some point and who knows when it has to reverse and put a new high.
  23. pull up the weekly chart for the dollar index from July 2008 to today. watch carefully do you see the inverted head & shoulders pattern with the head bottoming at 74.50 and neckline at 89? of course it won't tell you if the bottom is in today, but you could estimate how high the right shoulder would go
  24. i have downday on the calendar for tomorrow (on stuff, so it is dollar bullish). maybe euro will make this break above 1.3050 false? we will see.
  25. tryed it at the beginning, and no, it will never work. now I am kicking gold bugs a**es and I am happy with it.
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