bitbigt

Thanks!

I think this is wise and accommodating. Thank you

Keeping good long term relationships is difficult even when people meet face to face. Its even more challenging when interactions are only via the written word (I know this, as its a large part of my day job!). I think that is what's behind most tensions here at GEI. The onus must be on the 'leaders' to have thicker skin than a rhino, the forgiveness of Ghandi, and the generosity, patience and diplomacy of an angel. Dr B, you might like to try a bit harder to be this superhuman ...or to put that another way, the users are being honestly and understandably frustrated about a number of your decisions and the way you execute them. But who knows whether I or they would do any better than you at genuinely listenning and being smpathetic to the 'complainers' point of view. I know that you have previously deflected many of my own efforts to be constructively critical, which is why I also spent some time 'elsewhere'. But there's usually just too much good stuff at GEI to disregard it completely

=== moved to another thread ===

...hard to argue against that!

Perhaps Pixel8R should get a 1 banning credit Personally, I think bans are handed out far too readily. [wonder if I'll be banned for saying that?? ]

+1 (yes, I know I'm late. But I've been otherwise occupied, and wanted to support the many good and IMPORTANT points made here by CJ)

oh yes!

You were probably reported by a paper troll because your were getting too close to revealing him/her But these bans are becoming like ASBOs, some of us are feeling left out because we haven't yet had one

Yanks just getting down to business. Check out the action in oil and gold. This could be a very nasty afternoon. Glad I sold all my oil recently

Wow! And same happened to oil as well. Glad I sold ALL my oil ETF shares last Thursday [RH has nothing on me!!!!]

Gold up in all currencies. But also oil jumped similarly. It is strange because the rise started and ended so suddenly.

Me - once upon a time. But now I'm not so sure!!! Everyones paying off debt, to a massive extent, and that is extremely deflationary If QE were to push up the overall money supply dramatically, then I 'd expect near term inflation. But it isn't (QE is just compensating for the drop in money supply caused by debt repayments), so I don't. If countries other than US and UK get back into growth, then they'll push up commodity prices, and when you couple this with weaker USD and GBP then we'll get uncomfortable inflation. And that's what I do expect, but not for a few years yet. If government debt, and enduring QE policies, were to cause a complete loss of confidence in the USD (or GBP), then I'd expect a run on the currency and hyper-inflation. That could well happen, but of so (and if no plan B is pulled out of the hat) then it's still probably 10-20 years away. ...and gold could fall quite a lot before then! That's what I'da thunk anyway

No, they want the USD and the GBP to depreciate in a controlled manner. Both are about 25-30% down from their longer term levels, and I think there needs to be the same fall yet again over the next few years to give these nations a fighting chance of paying off their debt. Any short term bounce in the USD is a consequence of increasing risk aversion. Instead, the PPT probably wants gold to fall in value from its current levels. From USD 950 to USD 1050 the rise in gold was just a reflection of the falling dollar (as I kept pointing out, the same was happening for oil). But from USD 1050 to USD 1150 the rise in gold has been a genuine rise in PMs, whilst oil has been stable or falling. Today seems like a deliberate smack down in gold and oil, and not a rise in the dollar. If the dollar rises in parallel, that will just help the PPT in the attack on PoG.

I can imagine (50% confident) gold hitting a low of between GBP 500-600 over next 6-12 months. So 10-25% down from here. I am more confident (80%) that we've just seen a short term top. I made the rather strong prediction 2 weeks ago, when gold was at USD 1120 and GBP 675. The 6-7% further increase we've had since then really feels overdone to me (was that the commercial signal failure?). It seems that after Dubai and the options expiry, the PPT are now choosing today to start their fight back. They've even taken a big chunk out of the oil price early this morning. I suspect we'll see even stronger downward pressure when the Yanks wake up. Mrs BigT and I decided today, however, not to sell, but ride it out and buy more if/when we get down to sub-GBP 600 again.

I'm also not there yet - but trying to get there :-) I've never fired gun, and know nothing about farming. But hey - its fun to learn.

Nothing is impossible - but you are painting a very dramatic picture of the next several years. Developments on that scale would probably also bring global wars (economic and military, perhaps even nuclear). In that scenario, having or not having X kg of gold won't matter. I'd still rather have a safe home with a fair chunk of agricultural land [...plus a 2-year foddstock, windmill, livestock, water purifyer, and big set of guns!!!].

...against all currencies, just as after 1982! At some point gold will peak, and then correct. If left to its own devices it might well peak at a few thousand USD in a bubble/mania phase some time this next decade. After that, it will fall dramaticall;y. But equally the PPT and CB's don't want such high prices to be reached, and are much more able to restrain the price than ever before. So its not at all impossible that gold will not exceed USD 1500 these next few years (i.e., no mania phase occurs), after which global economies get back on track and gold consequentially falls in price. I think people place too much emphasis on the USD 850 price seen in 1982 as some kind of 'normal high' that we're again certain to reach in inflation adjusted terms. That 1982 high was without todays extreme government/CB intervention in markets, and very much exagerated to the upside due to an attempt to corner the silver market (which caused a spike in all PMs)

My goal is to preserve my wealth [which is what we keep hearing gold is about], not to get rich! [which is what many here seem to actually be hoping for]. My past buying/selling of gold has already significantly increased the number of GBP I own (doubled my investment after tax: equivalent of 15 years of max-capacity saving), and so that means I have already secured a future 'preservation of my wealth'. So now its time to reduce the risk profile of my GBP allocations. For that reason, 90% of my fiat is going into property (UK and Switzerland), plus extending this with ~25% mortgage. Over the next 20 years, this asset class will preserve its real value and bring a considerable income (BTL components). Any nominal value change from here will be minimal (20% down), slow (taking years), and transient (within 10 years prices will be higher - especially Switzerland). So risk is absolutely minimal. Given the future I am expecting (deflationary pressures for 2-4 years, followed by significant global inflation, especially in UK), this plan will work fine, whilst fiat gets undermined. Meanwhile, I might miss out on a 50% further gain in GBP gold from here, but for this to have a massive impact on my overall wealth I'd have to have 50% of my GBP in gold, and that would mean I couldn't hold these properties and the benefits they bring. Furthermore, gold will drop by 50% in a year at some stage - and one can never be sure of getting out before that drop occurs ...i.e., big risk! Finally, if we do enter some hyper-inflationary period (I do not think this is at all likely), I still have 6% of my wealth in gold and 8% in energy investments, and could divert additional cash from my offset mortgage savings to add to this. So I have that backup. Plus the house prices will soar in nominal terms. Most critically of all - I sleep well feeling financially secure and pretty much immune to whatever happens, I have a safe job, and I will have a lovely home for the family. Beyond that, my financial dabblings are just a casual hobby - which is why I post less often on GEI these last several months.

Yes. I sold it all at GBP 660 in March. (Half of the GBP then went into CHF a few months later, and this has since gained me another 8% as GBP weakened) Then bought back into gold with 20% (of what I wanted to put into gold) about 2 months ago at GBP 570, so up 16% on that. If I had put all 10% in at GBP 570, I'd be selling quarter to half now. But with only 20% in I'm just sitting tight. I can imagine (50% confident) gold hitting a low of between GBP 500-600 over next 6-12 months. So 10-25% down from here. I am more confident (80%) that we've just seen a short term top. Not easily in a few lines of text. Its about reading widely, and baking in experience and intuition. Its the 'art' of investing, not the science! Hence, everything is with a masive ...IMHO

Hi Guys and Gals At the risk of irritating some of you, I'd like to say that my take on all the recent action (global politics, economics, gold news, UK/sterling news, chart patterns...) leads me to a fairly strong suspicion that now would be a good time to lighten up on GBP gold holdings (not sell it all, just ease off a little) - IF you want to play that game at the edges whilst keeping a substantial core holding. Replies with more that 5 swear words will be ignored :-)

China's and India's recent gold purchases are being taken as a sign that gold is sure to go up in price. I.e., raising expectations that golds price in all currencies will rocket. But this is wrong. These country's gold purchases are motivated by those country's thinking the USD may fall in price relative to other currencies. Gold may not rocket in other currencies. So in short, recognising this key difference means that if you live in a USD based country and hold USD cash, then you can protect yourself by getting out of USD and into something else (not necessarily gold, but including gold). If you live in some other country and hold EURO, YEN, etc, then it may not pay off to buy gold. Personally, I think USD and GBP will share the same fate of significant devaluation. But they are already down 30% over last two years compared to other currencies, and so how much fiurther will they fall and over what time frame. Perhaps their collapse from here will be long and drawn out, taking up to a decade?

+1

Why all this ganging up on RH? He (and everyone) should be allowed to post whatever he likes, so long as it is not rude nor insulting (which he never is!!!). Heck... if people don't like his content or expressed views/arguments, then just discard or ignore his posts. Please don't start telling him or others what style of post/reasoning is acceptable.

True, but its important to start planning how we'll spend out gold fortunes, no? But OK. I'll get serious now (no more 'bike or distracting postings, promise), before Dr B complains about me on his own complaint thread.