Chubbs

I miss the old days of lots of charty predictions, so here's my tuppence-worth :-) Working off the GBP price, on the 5-year chart there looks like 3 major channels. Taking a look at the patterns in each one, it seems all three line up for a forecast that prices increase to £1050 over the next 12 months, before consolidating to £920-950 in the winter of 2011 (Dec/Jan). For the full analysis (separating the channels into separate charts), see linky: (or I can try to get to grips with imageshack and move them over here if preferred...) <puts crystal ball away>

I'd like to start buying physical silver, but the VAT has so far put me off - interesting to see how this site deals with it ("All items packaged and posted individually and under the value of £18 are VAT free under the UK VAT rules.") I've not seen this before - is it something that some of you larger investors would be comfortable doing? (besides having dozens of envelopes of single coins arriving in the mail...!)

While there's cause for a price fall, I'm much less worried about it this time than previous - maybe because I've been accumulating for >18 months now. As has been said, nothing goes up in a straight line. In fact, it's par for the course to have a dip on the leg up. Think of this as a lochan halfway up a mountain. Somewhere to take in the view, consider the path that's been taken so far, and the remainder of the climb ahead

Good to have all this in one place - just a few comments (these aren't meant to be criticisms!) - The fixed width design, although giving you control over how the page lays out, requires scrolling left/right (and I'm using a relatively high resolution setting) - The screen is incredibly busy - As mentioned, Gold/Silver in GBP would be great. Is it a lot of effort to have a duplicate page will all prices in sterling (or have a drop down menu at the top for common currencies on key charts)?

Having manged to buy in to gold just prior to the two ($) peaks, I've sold out my stake at a loss of 11% (buy high, sell low, I say ). I write this to provide justification, should the price suddenly jump up above $1000 in the next few weeks and I feel myself asking what the hell I've done :-) Five year charts below, in £ and $: It's clear that over the last month there a been a huge divergence in PoG between the currencies, as the GBP has fallen in value against the USD from $2 to $1.75. This has meant the dramatic fall in PoG from ~$980 to $740 (25%) has roughly correlated to only £490 to £420 (14%). Reasons for the fall in gold price appear to be the fall in price of oil (from $146 to $100), perceived reduced inflationary pressure from this and oncoming recession, and a stabilisation of the dollar through intervention in the run up to the US general election in the first week of November. Fortunately the corresponding 25% fall in PoG (dollar) has been buffered in sterling by the latter. The near future (<3 months) is thus dictated by two major factors – the decrease in dollar value as it becomes clear the US is entering a deep depression along with the rest of Western Europe; and gold being seen as a store of wealth during these financially unstable times. Looking at the 5 year charts, Gold is rapidly reaching some serious support lines in USD, with both the March 2006 peak, and the 2006-8 base trend line. However, there is still a major discrepancy in GBP, which potentially still has 24% to fall from peak (from £420 to £380) or 30% (to £340) My instinct is that gold will fall further, and remain in the $650-$740 range until November. Dollar trading in the region $1.65-$1.80 in this time will still partially buffer the price in sterling, but I believe the devaluation of the dollar w.r.t. Sterling after the election will be much more rapid than the bounce back in gold. USD/GBP would only have to move by 20 cents to drop PoG by 10% sterling. So, to justify selling out – my short term belief is that PoG has further to fall – around 10% in USD. This will be accompanied in the next 2 months by a fall in value of the dollar, which will cause the - thusfar cushioned – price in sterling down by by 20%. This more than makes up for trading cost losses of a couple of percent. It is my intention to re-evaluate in mid-November to assess the rate at which the two opposing forces – sterling “recovery” and gold recovery – are playing out. While I believe in the long term value of gold as an investment, I don't see the value in holding a falling asset short term, which has a high risk to the downside during that time, worsened by currency fluctuations. Note – My position in gold is an investment rather than a store of wealth - I hold gold in BV rather than physical - because I believe if things get bad enough that people are having to sell gold to dealers to raise cash then there's more things to worry about, with 95% of the people rioting...

Going back 2 years, the chart shows nicely the $ and £ have been falling together relative to the euro - now the dollar is rising against the euro and the pound falling relative to the dollar Probably now need to compare the three of them relative to a more stable currency, but afraid I've got work tomorrow so it'll have to wait! <edit> and yes, gold has indeed seemed to gain in value (£) thanks to the currency tanking - hence the temptation to bail out!

Been doing the same thing tonight :-) You can download forex exchange rate data free here: http://www.forexdata.biz/index.php?action=free

Some earlier comments and charts have got me seriously thinking - since mid July we've seen a fall in PoG from ~$980 to 800 (19%), but thanks to the weakening £, only £490 to £450 (8%). What are your thoughts for the following: short term (pre-Nov election) price of Au and oil (in $) and $/£ ratio? My feeling is the fall in £/$ has been too quick, and over the next 2 months will stabilise or go to $1.65 and head back up. This is going to be a global recession, but at the moment it seems to be reported as the EU going into recession and the US already recovering. After the election I think sentiments going to change and the $ is going to return to it's downtrend, just at a similar rate to the £ (and euro), so after an adjustment we'll all head down together. Concurrently, I think gold (and oil) is going to be held down til after the election before it heads up again. The question is getting the balance right - if the sterling recovery begins before the gold recovery, then there's the potential to lose 10-20% due to £/$. If the gold recovery begins before sterling then it's evens. Personally, I've only lost a few % on my gold investment thanks to the falling £, and I'm very tempted to cash out for a few weeks to watch the market...

I'll be honest - I felt complete empathy with Wren's idea last week that it would be good to go all in and not have to worry about prices every day - and was more than happy to do it on the pullback to 950. I should have expected it to cause me stress so quickly :-) I just wished HBOS would transfer some more money quickly out of some otherwise-not-destined-for-gold-savings so I could buy into this awesome dip!

Poor planning with moving funds about means I'm hoping for one more pullback to $900... liking the action anyway - a great week!

What would this actually entail? If gold was stored with BullionVault I could see trading being suspended, but can it actually be seized from the small holders that also use this system? Was there any compensation in 1933, or was any investment just lost?

It's been a month since I posted some charts, so I thought I'd check them and see how far I was out :-) http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....amp;#entry37665 Updated below for 1 year and quarter: I'm still aiming for channel break-out at around $840-850 - brought forward to mid-July from original prediction of July/Aug - with a potential low of $810-$820 in the next week or two. Following Steve's link in post 633 about the theory of banks looking for the next pressure valve, if oil starts heading sharply down in 2-3 weeks and Gold's below $850 then I'm going in. If oil's still holding then I'm planning to wait til early July to see if Gold goes tests the $815. It struck me earlier though - with PoG it going to shoot up as anticipated, why am I hanging on for this last 3-4% profit anyway?!? Is it bargain hunting, or greed?

Apologies for the laziness in counting the dots - what period of time does each colour reference? Any graph/computer guys able to do some sexy animations to show each dot appearing over time?

I'm still going for one more down trend before the upswing... Anyone for Friday afternoon plunging?