dietcolaaddict

I'm not sure about that, but I did find this

 

http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/SilverVAT/

"We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Abolish VAT on Silver Coins and Bullion to bring equality with the No-VAT position on Gold"

Deadline to sign up by: 03 June 2010 – Signatures: 27

 

 

Boy, has silver NOT gone mainstream!

I agree, silver is not mainstream. Neither is gold until people are buying, rather than selling, at 'Del Boy's gold bullion stall' at the local marketplace or until Moneysavingexpert/ThisIsMoney/WakeuptoMoney are championing it as a buy-and-hold investment.

However, that petition is a trap. How many PM holders are going to give their name and address? Especially Silver holders given the bulk of holding a decent monetary amount - you can't keep that bulk in a safety deposit box, and since you want VAT removed, you have presumably taken delivery. Its a list of people who have silver stored at home, surely........

Quite possible that we may have a new USD all time high by end of play today.............

Significant fall on Nationwide Index.......

Average Price £166,507

MINUS 0.9% MoM

For those in the UK :

Nationwide house price average - today £166,507 (thats down 0.9% MoM, further falls likely)

Price of gold in sterling - £811.19 (and looking bullish)

House price to gold ratio = 205.26

Is this the 200 mark about to be broken through for good?

I've started my own blog in the appropriate GEI section containing lots of PM-orientated charts

See:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry181049

One thing I have looked at is the price action in days leading up to, and after, an options expiry date. This is for the past 3 and 10 years.

future dates:

Daily change in USD gold price around options expiry date - past 3 years and 10 years

I wish there was more of a pattern here - but alas not. It appears any manipulation around the expiry date is only occasional (and thus, produces a random pattern when averaged over years), with no systematic takedown obvious.

Like a polar bear before winter, this time of year I intentionally get as overweight as I dare to on PMs. It's the best practice IMHO to take advantage of the seasonality trends. Paycheques for the rest of the year are to restore some cash savings and to pay for the festive season, which is always expensive for me. I can then build a new savings pot from the new year onwards, either for more PMs in the autumn or for stocks should there be a nice crash to make them cheap again. I'd like to diversify more into some boring, safe blue chip stocks, but will only do so following a stock market crash, which I think may be a real possibility In my (non-expert) opinion. .

My holdings:

75% Gold

5% Silver

5% Platinum

15% GBP-based assets (I do want more equities here, but only post-crash)

I prefer holding gold through the doldrums season (less downside), so may swap my Pt and Ag for Au next year, as I have done in previous years. I don't consider a once-a-year swap of metals as trading, I see it more as a PM equivalent of "switching fiat money from one bank account to another", something people do to improve potential returns, or indeed to reduce risks or to improve access/liquidity of savings.

I've completed my averaging in for 2010 doldrums season - now over 80% PMs in my portfolio.

Things looking quite bullish for PMs in the months ahead IMHO, including silver, something I have not always been keen on.

Gold looking bullish and on for a test of its dollar high, perhaps even in the week ahead......

I'm very unsure if it will get through or alternatively fall back before another test then follows in due course - and I am averaging in accordingly.

I agree with other posts on here - we have not seen much of a doldrums fall over the summer and the seasonal price increases are already here and seem early. Lots of uncertainty also regarding what will happen to gold following a possible stock market crash, the possibility of which is now being discussed everywhere in the financial news.

Interesting that the red bar on the left is the highest.

Why isn't the blue one? You would have thought that the largest difference in interest rates (in gold's favour) would have had the largest change in gold price.

Good Question, A.Z.

There are not an equal number of months for each of the bar regions:

less -2 24 months

-2 to -1 52 months

-1 to 0 59 months

0 to +1 70 months

The uncertainty of each value will depend on two variables for a "standard error" error bar - proportional to standard deviation and inversely proportional to square root of samples numbers N. (to be precise, SQRT(N-1 ) )

So with less sample numbers the very left hand column can only give a more uncertain result than those around it, all other things equal. Hence the exact pattern you expect at very negative interest rates is hidden by uncertainty in the relatively small sample size.

Yes, the problem with buying in pounds is the pound is more volatile than gold these days.

 

This is why I've always advocated holding dollars if you were holding off from buying gold [the US dollar being a stronger central currency].

 

Now that gold is monetized and more stable than the pound, the long term trend line shows where to buy in pounds. As you say, now looks a good time to buy.

I'm split USD, GBP and CHF with my buying pot.

USD for the reason you state, GBP because thats what I earn/spend in (and have this as my emergency cash) and CHF as a sensible third currency for a bit of a hedge against the unexpected.

Here is a recreation, from my own datasets, of the most convincing gold graph I have seen. I think the original was a post from Steve Netwriter a couple of years ago, and it impressed me so much I have wanted to rework the data.

It shows the monthly change in gold price against real interest rate (Fed rate - US CPI), geometrically averaged since 1970. The moral of the story is that:

+ Gold is the place to run when real interest rates are negative, offering a positive return.

+ This bull market may well end only when real interest rates are above +3% (+1 % for a cautious outlook)

+ The error bars (one standard error) show how good a bull market this is - that increase for negative rates is most likely statistically significant p< 0.05 over 40 years.

Case for this strengthening as GBP continues to weaken vs USD

Its worth starting the averaging in process in GBP in my opinion. I'm expecting gold in GBP to touch the 50 MA to complete the seasonality trend of recent years, but it's not really worth the risk of missing a bottom by holding out any longer.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p35504570828

Just when it was feeling good to be a housing bear again...

"UK house prices rose 0.6% in July, Halifax says"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10863152

The annual house price inflation rate fell from 6.3% to 4.9%, with the average property now costing £167,425

I guess the first point is that YoY is still falling and the cyclical pattern from the (very clear and nicely presented) BBC chart is still holding. But in a few months time, should prices fall as I and many others expect, this July value will really help support the YoY at above zero. Its only when this goes negative that, IMHO, we will start to see 'Ordinary Joe' panic and any large future falls materialise.

......

Brilliant pics!

Great stuff chris ct, really impressed and fancy trying this myself sometime!

(for recreation, not great monetary reward!)

Still quite clear over a 40 year timeframe......

Options expiry on the 26th looks like a good time to be considering a purchase

Here's a clear look at the seasonal dip ahead.....

Over the last ten years, August 28th has been the sweet spot for this time of year.

It will be more electable at the next general election if the pain comes quickly, so that the figures have a chance of being positive when electioneering starts. If it delays the pain for 2 years then it stands no chance of getting back in.

Totally true. Notice that the coalition government have agreed on a full five year term in advance of the pain being dished out. So they have scketched out a timetable for a pain-and-recovery process. The recovery need not be complete by ballot box time, just nicely gaining momentum.

Because I currently have no job and no income, and the kind of fall Bonner is mooting will slash my nominal wealth drastically if I remain heavily invested in gold. Periodically loading up the truck isn't an option for me because I don't have any money coming in!

Physical gold is a great way of protecting your hard earned savings from means-testing.

If you need to sell physical to provide income - and I have been there - keep dealer transactions under £5k each (and, for completeness, less than £10k per dealer per 365 day period)

Well, now Halifax index is negative as well as Nationwide.

Down by 0.5% in July

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/

Its great to see the bull trap end!

:D

The seasonal dip is now upon us, for sure!

I'm looking to average in from my reserves of USD, GBP and CHF squirreled away during 2010. It looks like GBP is going to be the first to bottom IMHO.

Things I am looking for before 'averaging in' on GBP :

a prolonged test of 50 DMA

RSI under 50

Lower half of Bollinger bands

Mid-range slow STO with upwards trajectory

Histogram zero in MACD with upside ‘black-over-red future’ move likely

Comments?

Nice to see my own work being quoted back on the forum ! I've looked into price manipulations around these dates and found only a weak trend - it seems to be a pattern of only the last year or so. I will show thedata on the forum once i get it into a more presentable form.

U.K.’s OFT Completes Review of Postal Gold Companies

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-2...-companies.html

The authority had requested gold buying companies to provide details on business practices and explain claims made in advertising. OFT had said it wanted to consider whether the companies were complying with consumer protection legislation, such as whether customers’ rights to reject an offer for their gold and receive the metal back were being honored in all cases

Who cares about the numpties selling their gold far below spot price, just tell us the real interesting thing please - where is it all ending up

(China/russia/india/ all of the above)

Here's what's vexing me currently. We sold out all bar 5% of our gold & silver (that's in sov's & brits) pre Emergency budget because of the potential changes to CGT & to bank gains. We are now predominantly in cash - UK sterling (in 2 UK ethical banks so hopefully safer than the average bank). I'm watching the stock markets and the gold market and trying to figure out where we go from here and therefore how to invest again - the never ending inflation vs deflation debate

 

I keep reading about the imminent stock market crash and am beginning to form the view that if that is the way things play out that we will see a correction in Gold back sub $1000 Sept/Oct before the US fire up the presses for one last time following their Elections & we'll get one last leg up in Gold before we see Prechter's predictions start to look more realistic (edited to say: for a while maybe 12-18 months before it goes parabolic). I'm not looking to get flamed for this view I'm just sharing my limited opinion and looking for other views before I decide to hop back on the Gold & Silver train over the winter/spring once more.

 

Would love to know what you think particularly Dr B

 

Lou

Just to add my thoughts.......(not wanting to get into trading vs investing, or claim to know more than others)

I'd advocate being conservative and 'mulling things over' before either a purchase, sale or swap of PMs. Be aware of the temptation, when reading a daily comments forum, to overreact to small news and noise , and thus overtrade or dive in too early. Time in gold-land is measured in months not hours.

Gold moves IMHO in a seasonal cycle and in lengthy multi-year cycles, so I try not to rush any decision or act on the spur of the moment news - I always mull things over.......

My strategy, which I have said before, is to buy big once a year around end august time, averaging in over a month or so. I choose gold, silver or platinum or a bit of all depending on the G-to-S ratio, and the G-to-P and S-to-P ratios, which at the moment are a bit uninteresting and neutral (see my post a couple of pages before with the octopus for my chart !) I ultimately want only to own gold, but will buy the others if undervalued to increase my potenitial gold ozs. I also diversify into several currencies as I build my fiat pot over the year.

Last thing of all, I hate buying into strength, as it usually means Im buying at an interim top, and end up underwater until the bull market eventually rescues me

If your "averaging in" with some funds for the year, you'd want to be buying gold wouldn't you?

 

Silver is a better buy on the big dips should they come.

 

This coming purchase, in the next couple of months, will be my last purchase of gold. Henceforth, if I want more, I'll go fossicking for it.

Hi RH

G-to-S ratio is 66, which is in my 'buy gold' region (just).

I'd be more pro-silver if this ratio was a tad higher and at least edging into my 'buy silver' region - which starts from 67.5 and above. I agree that silver is riskier (but potentially more rewarding) but I'd be more of a silverphile if the ratio at least got into the silver zone before late August to provide more reward for the risk it carries.

(see my interpretation of playing the G-to-S ratio)

PS. Why your last purchase?

Well, its now doldrums season for sure and lets not forget that seasonality trend........favours getting your PMs purchase in by early september

But what to buy for September, gold or silver?

Perhaps you listen to Armstrong, Crawford, Turk or Sinclair for your PMs advice. I'm going with the only commentator with a 100% record to date....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_%28octopus%29