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Posts posted by dietcolaaddict

  1. I'm not sure about that, but I did find this



    "We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to Abolish VAT on Silver Coins and Bullion to bring equality with the No-VAT position on Gold"

    Deadline to sign up by: 03 June 2010 – Signatures: 27



    Boy, has silver NOT gone mainstream!


    I agree, silver is not mainstream. Neither is gold until people are buying, rather than selling, at 'Del Boy's gold bullion stall' at the local marketplace or until Moneysavingexpert/ThisIsMoney/WakeuptoMoney are championing it as a buy-and-hold investment.


    However, that petition is a trap. How many PM holders are going to give their name and address? Especially Silver holders given the bulk of holding a decent monetary amount - you can't keep that bulk in a safety deposit box, and since you want VAT removed, you have presumably taken delivery. Its a list of people who have silver stored at home, surely........

  2. I've started my own blog in the appropriate GEI section containing lots of PM-orientated charts





    One thing I have looked at is the price action in days leading up to, and after, an options expiry date. This is for the past 3 and 10 years.


    future dates:




    Daily change in USD gold price around options expiry date - past 3 years and 10 years






    I wish there was more of a pattern here - but alas not. It appears any manipulation around the expiry date is only occasional (and thus, produces a random pattern when averaged over years), with no systematic takedown obvious.

  3. Like a polar bear before winter, this time of year I intentionally get as overweight as I dare to on PMs. It's the best practice IMHO to take advantage of the seasonality trends. Paycheques for the rest of the year are to restore some cash savings and to pay for the festive season, which is always expensive for me. I can then build a new savings pot from the new year onwards, either for more PMs in the autumn or for stocks should there be a nice crash to make them cheap again. I'd like to diversify more into some boring, safe blue chip stocks, but will only do so following a stock market crash, which I think may be a real possibility In my (non-expert) opinion. .


    My holdings:

    75% Gold

    5% Silver

    5% Platinum

    15% GBP-based assets (I do want more equities here, but only post-crash)


    I prefer holding gold through the doldrums season (less downside), so may swap my Pt and Ag for Au next year, as I have done in previous years. I don't consider a once-a-year swap of metals as trading, I see it more as a PM equivalent of "switching fiat money from one bank account to another", something people do to improve potential returns, or indeed to reduce risks or to improve access/liquidity of savings.


    McHugh again, this time from 2008, listing previous HOs:




    (1) In September 2005, the Fed pumped $148 billion in liquidity from the first week in September, just before the Hindenburg Omens were generated — to the third week of October, an 11 percent annual rate of growth in M-3 (2.5 times the rate of GDP growth and 5 times the reported inflation rate), to stave off a crash. The liquidity held the market to a 2.2 percent decline from the initiation of the signal.


    (2) In April 2004, the Fed pumped $155 billion in liquidity from the last week in April — right after the Hindenburg Omens were generated — to the third week of May, a 22 percent annual rate of growth in M-3, to stave off a crash. Even with the liquidity, the market still fell 5.0 percent.


    (3) The 12/23/1998 signal barely qualified, as the McClellan Oscillator was barely negative at –9, and New Highs were nearly double New Lows. Had this weak signal not occurred, condition # 5 would not have been met. This skin-of-the-teeth confirmation may be why it failed. It says something for having multiple, strong confirming signals.




    The italian site that Perishabull listed on page one is clearly not updated for new HO occurances. I do wish there was a way of using market data to confirm the occurnces myself, but I cannot find all the data I need online!



  5. McHugh again, this time writing for market oracle:




    We got a second official confirmed Hindenburg Omen observation Friday, August 20th, 2010 after getting a first observation Thursday, August 12th, 2010


    It seems that HO's need to strongly pass through the criteria and to be of value. HOs that scrape through or that pass through due to rounding need to be ignored. Both Aug 12th and Aug 20th got through comfortably.


    We did get a "rounded" third Hindenburg Omen observation Thursday, August 19th, 2010, where the lower of New Highs and Lows came in at 2.18 percent, which is just shy of the required 2.2 percent level, but rounds up to 2.20. Rather than include this as an observation with an asterisk, we are just counting the two from August 12th andAugust 20th to avoid controversy. The point is, we have an official confirmed Hindenburg Omen with at least two observations at this time, and no asterisk.



  6. I have given up on the idea of wishing any violence upon Gordon... now that he's out of power.


    Ridicule, frequent and excessive amounts of ridicule, will surfice


    The loss of power is the most devistating thing that can happen to someone like Brown. There is no need to wish pain or misfortune on him. He is a broken man without the power he so craves.

  7. Gold looking bullish and on for a test of its dollar high, perhaps even in the week ahead......


    I'm very unsure if it will get through or alternatively fall back before another test then follows in due course - and I am averaging in accordingly.


    I agree with other posts on here - we have not seen much of a doldrums fall over the summer and the seasonal price increases are already here and seem early. Lots of uncertainty also regarding what will happen to gold following a possible stock market crash, the possibility of which is now being discussed everywhere in the financial news.


  8. Interesting that the red bar on the left is the highest.

    Why isn't the blue one? You would have thought that the largest difference in interest rates (in gold's favour) would have had the largest change in gold price.


    Good Question, A.Z.


    There are not an equal number of months for each of the bar regions:


    less -2 24 months

    -2 to -1 52 months

    -1 to 0 59 months

    0 to +1 70 months


    The uncertainty of each value will depend on two variables for a "standard error" error bar - proportional to standard deviation and inversely proportional to square root of samples numbers N. (to be precise, SQRT(N-1 ) )


    So with less sample numbers the very left hand column can only give a more uncertain result than those around it, all other things equal. Hence the exact pattern you expect at very negative interest rates is hidden by uncertainty in the relatively small sample size.




  9. Yes, the problem with buying in pounds is the pound is more volatile than gold these days. :lol:


    This is why I've always advocated holding dollars if you were holding off from buying gold [the US dollar being a stronger central currency].


    Now that gold is monetized and more stable than the pound, the long term trend line shows where to buy in pounds. As you say, now looks a good time to buy.


    I'm split USD, GBP and CHF with my buying pot.

    USD for the reason you state, GBP because thats what I earn/spend in (and have this as my emergency cash) and CHF as a sensible third currency for a bit of a hedge against the unexpected.


  10. Here is a recreation, from my own datasets, of the most convincing gold graph I have seen. I think the original was a post from Steve Netwriter a couple of years ago, and it impressed me so much I have wanted to rework the data.


    It shows the monthly change in gold price against real interest rate (Fed rate - US CPI), geometrically averaged since 1970. The moral of the story is that:


    + Gold is the place to run when real interest rates are negative, offering a positive return.

    + This bull market may well end only when real interest rates are above +3% (+1 % for a cautious outlook)

    + The error bars (one standard error) show how good a bull market this is - that increase for negative rates is most likely statistically significant p< 0.05 over 40 years.



  11. Hindenburg Omen thread

    This signal may warn of coming crashes


    "The Omen occurs when an unusually high number of companies in the New York Stock Exchange reach 52-week highs and lows at the same time."




    I found a GEI thread on this here, but it is a little old now. I want to look out for this technical indicator in the months ahead and test its ability to serve as a marker for a market crash (which I believe is a possibility)




    I believe Bubble Pricker may have some authorship of the Wikipedia entry, if so kudos to him.



    The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen has five criteria:


    1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.

    2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than 75. This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.

    3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.

    4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.

    5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.


    These measures are calculated each evening using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. The occurrence of all five criteria on one day is often referred to as an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen occurs if a second (or more) Hindenburg Omen signals occur during a 36-day period from the first signal.

  12. Just when it was feeling good to be a housing bear again...


    "UK house prices rose 0.6% in July, Halifax says"



    The annual house price inflation rate fell from 6.3% to 4.9%, with the average property now costing £167,425


    I guess the first point is that YoY is still falling and the cyclical pattern from the (very clear and nicely presented) BBC chart is still holding. But in a few months time, should prices fall as I and many others expect, this July value will really help support the YoY at above zero. Its only when this goes negative that, IMHO, we will start to see 'Ordinary Joe' panic and any large future falls materialise.



  13. It will be more electable at the next general election if the pain comes quickly, so that the figures have a chance of being positive when electioneering starts. If it delays the pain for 2 years then it stands no chance of getting back in.


    Totally true. Notice that the coalition government have agreed on a full five year term in advance of the pain being dished out. So they have scketched out a timetable for a pain-and-recovery process. The recovery need not be complete by ballot box time, just nicely gaining momentum.