Jump to content

warpig

Members
  • Content Count

    3,102
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

0 Neutral

About warpig

  • Rank
    Tri-Millennium Guru
  1. Interestingly Martin Armstrong has been saying when the bond bubble bursts, money will flood in to stocks which `could` push it up to 30K. Quite a bold call if you ask me.
  2. warpig

    SILVER

    Controlling the price of gold was part of the plan, it wasn't a conspiracy, it was an open secret. Yes at some point the game stops, it doesn't go on for a generation or even another decade, the system will collapse under it's own weight. They know they can't fix it, the best they can do is stall for time. Hyperinflating the currency would cause more problems than it solves, they won't do it.
  3. warpig

    SILVER

    Thanks for the reply. Yes you can use the ratios to swap from one asset to another, but that doesn't guarantee you're getting the best price for either. What if when you sold your silver you stayed in cash and bought gold now, you'd be significantly better off than playing the gold:silver ratio. If you've been in precious metals for the last 3 years, you've suffered a significant loss of profits the same as the rest of us. If you look at the CCI since late 2011, the decline in commodities is unmistakable and yet to this day, I've barely seen it mentioned let alone discussed on any of the goldbug sites. It seems to me that gold-[bulls|bugs] refuse to accept gold can still act as a commodity, yet the last 3 years clearly prove this wrong. My mistakes were believing gold would "only" act as a monetary asset since 200[7|8] and not having a full appreciation for money cycling in and out of asset classes depending where we were in the business cycle, I drew some wrong conclusions. It's not that I don't believe there's manipulation, after all that's what the anonymous HFT bids and dark pools are, it's just I don't think long term market trends are surreptitiously manipulated, although in the short term everything is. I accept the impact of loose monetary policy, but this isn't manipulation, it's mismanagement. The London Gold Pool and gold leasing were open secrets and were clearly connected with the gold standard, so this was "different..." IMO. I also don't believe in the hyper-inflation thesis anymore, so I "may" consider going to cash when gold peaks next. Clearly inflating the debt away isn't working and I am confident they won't try and push the string much harder, because they'll sacrifice the currency if they hyper-inflate. Having said that I reserve the right to change my mind as conditions change!
  4. warpig

    SILVER

    Conspiracy theories haven't been able to predict the price of gold for the last 3 years. I'm really pissed off with myself for not seeing the top in 2011 and I'm prepared to admit a lot of what I described as sinister shadows controlling the gold market, was actually a lack of knowledge and putting too much "faith" in others. I'm of the opinion that unless we work out where we all went wrong in 2011, we're likely to make the same mistake at the next peak. Doesn't that worry you?
  5. warpig

    GOLD

    It absolutely isn't reflected in the price and you should be concerned.
  6. warpig

    SILVER

    I agree, silver rose about 14% compared to gold which rose about 9% since the beginning of the year, margins are expected to rise as the price rises. Isn't it about time we stopped seeing conspiracy in absolutely everything..?
  7. warpig

    GOLD

    I agree, I've been an idiot too. It's now clear to me commodities are in a significant bear market and since 2011, gold has been acting as a commodity not as the money of last resort. I think it's very healthy to acknowledge your mistakes or you're bound to repeat them. The dollar is going to rally much higher from here and it could push gold down in dollars to $680, in Martin Armstrong's own words, "This is the extreme target we have to respect is possible." He believes gold won't resume it's bull market until 2016, I believe he's said Q1 in the past. However it should then rally until 2020. He says this is all about the dollar and it's the process of repatriating the dollars that will cause the system to fall apart. I suppose it should also be said, this doesn't necessarily reflect the price of gold/silver in local non dollar currencies. As the dollar strengthens, presumably other currencies are in decline which will cushion gold/silver. Non of this is what I want to hear either, but I can't help but feel it's going to come true.
  8. warpig

    GOLD

    This chart paints a clearer picture IMO.
  9. warpig

    GOLD

    Pixel8r spotted this today, see if you can spot Brown's bottom.
  10. warpig

    GOLD

    Fundamentally there's every reason to be a permabull in gold, but that doesn't reflect the real world. People don't always make the right logical decisions, there are other influences. Having said that, what perplexes me is how the price can decline for 2 years and yet inventory levels are so low. I think it shows the gold market doesn't reflect the underlying commodity any more, it's more about the wallstreet casino than hedging genuine production and that sort of mentality is exactly what put the financial world in it's current predicament. The western economies must go back to manufacturing, where real things have real value. Trading is just educated gambling, it's distorting all of the markets everywhere. I think history will look back at precisely now and label western governments naive for sending all of the western gold east, in exchange for paper promises that we all know are going up in smoke. Countries were invaded for gold in times gone by and now we vilify gold in a brazen effort to promote fiat currencies. What madness... BTW - I think the (double) bottom is in.
  11. warpig

    GOLD

    We'll see what happens, but I'd rather know it's a possibility and mentally prepare to sit and wait longer.
  12. warpig

    GOLD

    Latest from MA's blog: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/15/time-price/
  13. warpig

    GOLD

    This is an interesting chart.
  14. warpig

    GOLD

    Full circle... I've just reread it and I think I agree with his closing sentiment: QEIII has been slated to end mid 2014, is gold going to trend lower until then?
  15. warpig

    GOLD

    I should have refreshed the page before I replied to Jake. Yes I guess that's mainly it, but why didn't we see it coming? We should have IMO...
×