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Methinkshe

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  1. ...................and still I haven't bought any gold! I'm either the last of the idiots on GEI or the first of the sane! And I know without waiting for a reply which category most are going to put me in. And still I cannot put my finger on why I am so reluctant to buy gold. Something, somewhere doesn't add up. But I'll keep listening to the gold-bugs and gold-buyers in the hope that one of these days the penny will drop or I'll work out why I have been so reluctant to allow the penny to drop. Either way, thanks for all the input.
  2. I can't speak for other posters but I am of the opinion that his balanced views bear repetition - they act as an antidote to excesses in either direction. And since such excess is freqently demonstrated, it is always useful, imo, to be brought back to balance. But perhaps that's just me...... In any event, I very much appreciate RH's posts and have never found any repetitiveness irksome - rather it helps me to maintain a balanced view and not to be caught up by excess emotion in either direction.
  3. I'm sorry, but I have to strongly disagree with this. RH is one of the posters that keeps me returning to this site. His posts are always informative and balanced and his knowledge is wide-ranging. I am always glad that he is prepared to share it with those of us who are less knowledgeable. What you consider "waffle" is, in fact, essential background information for any investor. I am always more than pleased to explore the wider view that RH so generously takes the time to present - it is only by so doing that one can get a sense of where we are at any particular point in time. He who refuses to learn from history etc........... I have to say in all honesty that whereas I would miss RH's posts and would consider him a real loss to this board were he to leave, I wouldn't miss your posts - and that's just an observation, it is not intended as an insult. Therefore, please exclude me from the "many posters" that you mention.
  4. No, I don't find the posts of those who are pro-gold unpleasant - at least, not in the main. The thing is, I'm not prejudiced against gold per se; in fact, I am very open towards the idea of holding gold and even more so of holding silver. But I find myself very put off by the "lift-boy" mentality that now prevails. What with gold-bugs and ads on tv and Ebay and the rest, I'm inclined to believe that we've got to the blow-off phase of a bubble. Hence my refs to lift-boys and shoe-shine boys.
  5. GOM It may well be the case that the stock markets crash, if not next week then some time later this year. But that doesn't equate, in my mind, to a necessary rise in the P o G. The strange thing is, the more I read of your posts (and the posts of other gold-bugs) the less inclined I am to invest in gold. I am constantly reminded, by you and your ilk, of tulip mania and lift-boys! Meanwhile, I've got a pair of shoes that need shining.......
  6. I watched a youtube video (can't remember what it was called or where I got the link from) about a reporter trying to sell to anyone on the street a 1oz Canadian Maple worth $1000. No one would take it - not even for $20!
  7. Hyperinflation when it occurs is always very short lived - it is the final blow-out phase before the search for equilibrium results in an opposite move. And if the opposite move cannot be found then there is a self-destruct. Within an oscillation there is an up and a down move. Those that catch the up do well - unless they believe that the up will continue exponentially toward infinity. The trick is to ride the up and bale out before the reverse swing. The difficulty is to identify the tipping point. The only certainty is that the tipping point and consequent reversal WILL occur. I just think that gold has reached a tipping point and will reverse. Psychologically, which is the more immediate/greater fear in the mind of an investor? Immediate losses or losing out on potential gains? My bet is that the immediate fear of losses due to a large correction will cause its own positive feedback loop downwards until equilibrium is reattained.
  8. I'm not convinced that the base-line measure against which a parabolic rise is measured is very important. It may have a short term importance (Weimar germany, for instance) but the correction toward balance will always be the over-riding driving force.
  9. Lol! Sorry, perhaps I shouldn't laugh, but this one-liner drew an instant chuckle for its brevity and perceptiveness.
  10. I don't get the impression that Prechter is trying to buy gold at $300/oz. I think he's just telling what he sees - a bit like I am attempting to do. Prechter does it from a financial background and I do it from a background of 5 decades of keen observation of people, the natural world, psychology etc. My observations and experience lead me to believe that Prechter is correct in his forecast - simply because I "feel in my bones" (shorthand for some kind of sub-conscious distillation of knowledge and experience) the constant tug toward balance. Gold is NOT going to go parabolic - the equal and opposite reaction that attends all systems will click in before that.
  11. Markets are"part of nature" inasmuch as they reflect the actions of people. Markets always seek balance - they don't like parabolas and always correct. If that were not the case then the POG would by now be in the £millions/oz! I just see these moves more as oscillations (as per the graph I linked) than one way parabolic moves toward infinity, and with a constant search for equilibrium. As RH and I touched upon in another thread (or maybe it was this one - can't remember) the search for balance underpins all existence with wild swings in one direction compensated by excessive swings in the opposite direction until momentum declines and a position nearer to balance is achieved - think of a pendulum. I think this 10+ year bull run in gold may have a little further to go but not much - I expect to see an equal and opposite move in the not too distant future. I think Prechter is right.
  12. Predictions of exponential growth always makes me feel uncomfortable. Positive feedback loops are inherently unstable and nature abhors instability and always seems to self-correct at the blow-out phase. I think the graph to be found on Page 35 here: Unexpected Behaviors in Higher- more accurately represents real world systems. Graph of Sustained Oscillations Sorry, I cannot copy it to here - don't know how to. .
  13. Still testing the underside... Let's see if it bounces back through 1125 before we dismiss this correction. There could still be more downside to come......
  14. "siv"??? Lol! Did you read that Willem Buiter article I linked. I found it very interesting. Edited to add: Re "siv"... Perhaps that was a very clever reference to SIVs and nothing to do with them there mesh thingies....!
  15. Hey, C.J., Look, I don't think there is any point in your getting paranoid. I haven't a clue who reported your post, but it is possible that it had more to do with your allegations of trolling than your derogatory references to paper money. Either way, so what? I like to read your posts - I like to read everyone's posts - so why bother so long as you can continue to post? Just ignore it..... ...and keep posting. All the best and I hope your strategy works for you in the long run. As you may have discerned from my posts, I'm still undecided re gold, at least, anything above a diversification style 10% of portfolio. But I'm open to being convinced - which is why I like to read both pro and anti gold-bug posts. So just keep posting......! Edit: diversifaction???!!! Good lord, my typing gets worse by the day! Substitute diversification.
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