tinecu
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Posts posted by tinecu
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home
Congrats everyone. Especially to the BoE. Well done!
Deflation anyone?
But seriously this looking very like the 1970's picture to me....
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By the way, check out the iTulip thread I started. Some great responses already.
I'm getting the impression that '-ve lease rates' be they real or implied are rather bullish for gold...IMO it means there is very little demand to short gold. Suggesting a widespread belief that gold will rise from here?
edit:spelling
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this is worth a read.
Note. The 'Cash and Carry trade' and the final example cited of a central bank in need of liquidity at the bottom of the page.
Ooops forgot link:
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ChumpusRex & tinecu,
Thanks, I think I'm finally starting to get it.
It looks like this week could be interesting.
(PS I was a long day the other day, and I think I swapped rise & fall over. Feel free to ignore me
)this is worth a read.
Note. The 'Cash and Carry trade' and the final example cited of a central bank in need of liquidity at the bottom of the page.
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I'm a little concerned about Clive Maund since I read about his connection with Garry North.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpost.php?...mp;postcount=24
I guess any technical analysis is coloured by ones views.
I wonder if they both hold Gold shorts by any chance?
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Hmm so lots of borrowing of gold took place over the last two months....probably to sell high and buy back low as everyone and their dog expected a correction post $1000. So now they want to give it back....but the banks aren't keen as this means handing out their precious liquid funds in a credit squeeze.
So this could go several ways...here's two...maybe
1)Gold borrowers decide to enjoy being paid to keep it (like fiat)..gold price goes up?
2)Investors don't want the risk of further falls and force the banks to take it back...banks have to borrow or sell their remaining gold or other assets to cover the USDs needed to repay the loan. The outcome of this depends on how much the gold the gold lenders have left in their vaults.
Re point 1...if investors can get Libor + the lease rate return on their money in a 'safe haven' won't they rush to it and create a shortage of supply in Gold? Or is this too optimistic?
CGNAO's take in the lease rate move...
"Central banks dumping gold like it's going out of fashion.
They desperately want to hold it back, but they can't. "
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1) Something has scared the shorts off, and they have been panic covering. The bullion banks are now getting their gold back and will have to return USD, and they are trying to stem the flow - either they don't want the gold back so quick (unlikely), or they're struggling to get the USD together (more likely).
2) There is a massive glut of gold on the spot market. The recent rise in price may have encouraged hoarders and hedged producers to start emptying stockpiles.
3) Possible asymmetric manipulation of the LIBOR rates. E.g. The FED's new liquidity injections have helped lower LIBOR, but not all institutions may be eligible for them. If bullion banks can't get hold of the USD liquidity then they may be forced to pay a higher USD rate in order to improve their balance sheets.
Hmm so lots of borrowing of gold took place over the last two months....probably to sell high and buy back low as everyone and their dog expected a correction post $1000. So now they want to give it back....but the banks aren't keen as this means handing out their precious liquid funds in a credit squeeze.
So this could go several ways...here's two...maybe
1)Gold borrowers decide to enjoy being paid to keep it (like fiat)..gold price goes up?
2)Investors don't want the risk of further falls and force the banks to take it back...banks have to borrow or sell their remaining gold or other assets to cover the USDs needed to repay the loan. The outcome of this depends on how much the gold the gold lenders have left in their vaults.
Re point 1...if investors can get Libor + the lease rate return on their money in a 'safe haven' won't they rush to it and create a shortage of supply in Gold? Or is this too optimistic?
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Silver looked cheap to me at $17.7...so I bought.
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I was looking into this last year after one of my friends stated up a recovery business and told me how much the price of scrap cars had gone up, the cats made upto one third of the price of the scrap car. Last year the price of a cat at a scrap dealer was around £35 if it contained both 'bricks'.
Sadly I lost the links and information I had on this when I last formated my PC but I can still vaugely recall the data.
As I understand it there are two basic types of catalytic converters, the ones for petrol engines can use either platinum or palladium whereas the converters for diesel engines must use a combination of platinum and palladium. There are two 'bricks' in a catalytic converter and sometimes the second brick can 'blow out' and only be worth half the scrap price, scrap dealers can check this by the scientific method of poking a stick up one end to see if the second brick is intact.
You can do an Internet search for the price of a new catalytic converters at car parts dealers to see the difference in prices between diesel and petrol cats. You also will find when you go to a exhaust specialist to have your car exhaust repaired or changed that they will keep your old exhaust/catalytic converter as part of the deal. Some unsrupulus car parts dealers could charge you the price of a platinum/palladium diesel cat for your petrol car when you petrol car uses the cheaper palladium cat. I remember reading about how attempts are being made to replace the platinum/palladium with gold or even silver, but I have no information about how thats progressing. (Who knows maybe Realist Bear will create a particle accelerator and make platinum out of thin air)
That amount palladium/platinum varies depending on the engine size of the car, I am not quite sure where I heard it but I think that it may have been Nick Barisheff who said in an interview that cars can contain upto a 7 gram combination of palladium/platinum and catalytic converters for large trucks/ buses could contain upto 20 grams.
The problems begin when you attempt to reclaim the metal from the catalytic converter as cutting them open will give a of carcinogenic dust. Strong acids are used to reclaim platinum from ceramic bead catalysts and these acids will give off very hazardous vapor.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/catalytic-converter2.htm
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2007/0330.html
A more interesting mover in the palladium and platinum price could be if the US starts to change its automobile infrastructure towards the more efficient diesel engines, above Nick Barisshef writes that the vast majority of cars in the US run on petrol. Imagine what it could do to the price of diesel and platinum if the US were to diversify just a small percentage of its automobiles into diesel.
Great post. Methanol and hydrogen fuel cells also use platinum.
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They don't want anyone telling them their strategy of hoarding their STR funds in the Bradford and Bingleys of this world is flawed. They want to blame estate agents and property porn shows for their suffering, when in reality the fault lies squarely with the government agencies that are supposed to oversea banking regulations. They want to feel warm in the fact they are all in it together, when at the same time they are all running around rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic in a mad panic.
Most of all they want everyone to stop talking about gold, which is really about inflation, as deflation is what they are all hoping and praying for.
There are some posters that get it, but they are few and far between.
Well put. They'll all get it eventually.
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Is it me or did someone just turn the Yen carry trade on full monty today?
Is that the G7 plan to avoid catastrophy?
Oh dear...
Short term= recovery
long term = inflationary collapse
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We don't really believe this silver (and gold) prediction, do we?
I mean, I'd like to be rich as much as the next person, but... this sort of thing appeals much too much to my innermost desires for money for nothing...
Yeah the guy seem rather optimistic!
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Gold is gaining against all fiat tonight
even the JPY! -
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
Now it must be big if we are quoting Churchill
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15 dolla in 60 mins
No,Silver is vertical
but Pt and Pd are heading down
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I see it on Kitco. My forex screen and BV has it at 499.00. Strange
£500+ on BV
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Who thinks Gold is going to break the 500 pound sterling today? I do.
Yup, but first 16K/kg
GBP=toast
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Does anybody know to what extent gold (and silver) ETFs are bought on margin?
Do you think many retail gold and silver investors borrow to buy bullion?
1) Loads
2)Yes (and this will increase in the mania phase)
Hence the chance of a sharp correction...but after the shake-out Gold will rise again IMO
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Gold Maples are a very nice coin, as are the Philarkmonikers.
You should probably expect delivery on Thursday via UPS.
I like the 1kg 'coins' ...saves hours of counting
The Times says 'Hoard Gold' today!! The masses are wising up at last.
Return to the 1970s: how to reap a profit in the downturn
With the rocketing price of oil, gold and many other commodities reminding investors of the turmoil that Britain faced 35 years ago, we asked the professionals to outline the best ways to profit from the current chaos raging in the world’s markets
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3558728.ece
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Has anyone here had experience with coininvestdirect.com, i have always been a bit worried about them as they are not BNTA members and you have to transfer funds direct into there account.
What quality are there bullion coins, are they all scratched and dinged or in good condition ???? How long till delivery ???
They gave me good and quick service.
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Two gold articles on the front page of the BBC website today (Ethiopia's gold is the other). If I were the cartel I'd try to hold it below 1000 for a while longer, then let it go up to 1040, say, and then keep smacking it down below 1000. Plenty of headlines "Gold Back under $1000" and frighten people into thinking it's a top.
In euros and yen it didn't make a new record today.
Nor in Pounds or far from it in terms of CHF
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Like a ten dollar mexican Lolita on the border town of El paso, we were teased by the market for the spot price of gold of 1,000. We did not make it, close, but no cigar.
Still this leaves a little gunpowder for next time, when we will blast through. This will be the real shock and awe.
Stay tuned peeps.
Plenty of 'shock awe' today in the UK. $1000 Gold all over BBC Radio4 and in Parliament (the 'Brown bottom' :-))!
So the word is out....the 'anti-dollar' is on the march.
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The cartel must run out of ammo soon in this dog-fight for the big $1000....we shall see
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Yes, although the simple term "gold" is unhelpful because it's used in so many other contexts.
Here's the same graph with "gold investment"
Now with gold investment and gold etf (the best terms I've managed to think of):
Indeed the term gold is very general...
Gold price is a better search term:
Try http://www.google.com/trends?q=buying+gold...=all&sort=0
note "buying gold" is not surging.
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even the JPY!
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
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Beautiful stuff. My gran used to quote that to me, bless her soul. "Never a borrower or lender be" Wise words.