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tinecu

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Posts posted by tinecu

  1. When you say most of the action is behind us it really depends on how you expect the two markets to move.

     

     

     

    Moves since ratio at high in 2000,

    Gold $250 / Dow 10000 (not sure if these are exact?) , this represents a 277% increase in Gold and only a 34% decrease in Dow to todays levels ie a net profit of 243% if you were long equal amounts of both

     

    Let's say you expect the Gold/Dow ratio to move to 1:1 at some point. From todays two levels that ratio can be acheived with many permutations, but jsu looking at two;

     

    Gold $5000 / Dow 5000 , this represents a 432% increase in Gold and a 23% decrease in Dow

    ie a net profit of 409% if you were long equal amounts of both

     

    Gold $2500 / Dow 2500 , this represents a 166% increase in Gold and a 62% decrease in Dow

    ie a net profit of 104% if you were long equal amounts of both.

     

    Nice illustrations. Given a 1:1 ratio in the future the actually figures depend on how inflationary things become.

    Those betting on hyperinflation would do well to be long Dow as well as long Gold, but when do you jump in? Where's the bottom?

     

    Deflationistas should be shorting the dow (and long Gold unless they really think that the Dow will go sub 1000!!)

     

    Either way gold looks good, except for the ultradeflationist view.

  2. My observation of London SW :

     

    - transactions are down hugely

    - properties are sitting unsold ; when they don't sell they're letting them out

    - sellers still believe that 2007 prices or similar will come back in a couple of years

    - buyers are unsure what to believe so they're watching and waiting. Some still think this is not a major collapse

    - there are very few forced sellers as yet (will these come as interest rates sky rocket - 1 year or so away?)

    - a lot of people on tracker mortgages feel quite well off because their monthly payments are down. (For how long?)

    - there is fear and lack of understanding everywhere

    - estate agents are not earning any commission

    - family homes - once the invulnerable sector - have been hit

    - prices are down but not have collapsed - we are the road down to the cliff but have not fallen off

     

    More when I think of mre

     

    you're not kidding:

    http://www.home.co.uk/company/press/time_o...or_uk_homes.htm

  3. I am not really knowledgeable, but I bought some already having had a look at the last 40 years palladium prices. I think the car disaster is largely priced in already. However, it is a highly speculative play. So, I have very little and will stay a small part of my portfolio.

     

    Well done. I'm looking to buy some too.

  4. Don't rejoice, you fool.

     

    The international monetary and banking system is blowing up.

     

    Any gold you hold will only be useful if you manage to hold on to it and survive until the dust settles.

     

    I can guarantee the world will look a very different and hostile place then.

     

    Hmm I know what you mean.

    However, I think its OK for folk to let off some steam.

    For many of us Gold purchases were a brave new step in a very uncertain world.

    Most regulars on this board are simply glad they 'protected themselves'.

     

     

     

  5. Copied from the inflation thread:

     

     

     

    But why did it fall ?

    One of the fundamental drivers of the gold price is Real Rates of T-Bills. Look at what happened back in the 1970s.

     

    Zeal_Real_Rates_1970to2008b.gif

     

    Now look at Real Rates now. The Red Arrow shows where the gold price is heading.

     

    Please read all 3090 words:

     

    Real Rates and Gold 10

    Adam Hamilton December 5, 2008

    http://www.zealllc.com/2008/realgold10.htm

     

    The last decade has similarities to the 1970s. But we have already had the positive Real Rates spike. The result was 2006/2007.

    We are now past that, on the 1976 to 1980 phase.

    +1

     

  6. I think we are more likely to see a long drawn out grinding deflationary process... with the odd banking shock.... rather than a sudden hyper-inflationary event. The hyper-inflationary event may come at the end, with a currency crisis, like an exclamation mark punctuating the complete collapse of the economy... or maybe not. In the meantime, we have a great opportunity to trade a portion of our metal on the coming peaks and dips.

     

    Why spend all those hard-earned wages when you can use the volatility to add to your position. As for dry powder, I plan to accumulate and then spend on mining stocks and emerging markets when the markets slump next.

     

    Careful. Trading this situation could go horribly wrong. Narco too seems tempted to play with fire.

  7. So, when the market goes up, these MoFos are happy to predict +15% a year. When the market goes down, these bastewards refuse to predict -15%. Bloody VIs.

     

    Low house prices are good for everyone. Free houses would be paradise.

     

    Halifax and Nationwide decide not to publish annual house price forecasts

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...-forecasts.html

     

    EDIT: I think these guys should be prosecuted for market manipulation. This can't be legal.

     

    I agree totally. Its criminal. Their property ramping reports in 2002/20003/2004/2005/2006/2007should be enough to make them party to the mass fraud that we have witnessed. The FSA should ask them 'do the contents of these reports suggest you possess sufficient financial insight to handle other peoples money?'

     

     

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