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tinecu

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Posts posted by tinecu


  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/greenwich-s-priciest-homes-languish-with-four-years-of-inventory-on-market.html

     

    The high end will never be affected... yaddayadda... oil sheiks yaddayadda... :rolleyes:

     

    Not so in Greenwich UK

     

    http://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_market_report.htm?location=greenwich&all=1

     

    I wonder how long it will be before this market comes to a grinding halt. When mortgage interest rates soar I suppose and the first signal of that has come from Moody's.

     

    Are UK banks still getting funding from the BoE 'on the cheap' so to speak?


  2. How much have UK house prices fallen in real money?

     

    Once they started down the road of securitization, let alone QE, measuring house prices in Sterling means nothing. They should be on the floor by now but a big fiddle was done.

     

    So, we had an initial fall of some 30%??? Further subtract the fall in the Pound, another 30%. In reality they're already 60% down.

     

    Does any of that make sense?

     

    Yup. See page 8 in this report.

    http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_NOV10.pdf


  3. So, is this the start of the Great Yen Carry Trade unwinding then?

     

    I doubt it as we have already had a dose of that and the respons each time is massive printing by the BoJ. (And swaps with the Fed)

     

    I think it may be:

    1 a rush of foreign bargain hunters looking to pick up cheap stock.

    2. burnt longs from overseas needing to fulfil their margin obligations..

     

    I don't see this as long term trend.

     

    I wonder what SteveNetwriter has to say?


  4. Bo Peng has a few things to say.

    My last crystal ball reading of market aftershocks from the tragedy in Japan has been mostly correct, in retrospect, with one big mistake: the Yen keeps surging. Apparently I underestimated the extent of Japanese repatriation, which has probably been sustained by the worsening of the nuclear situation.

     

    FT Alphaville just posted a table listing overseas holdings by Japanese investment trusts. It doesn't provide any direct trading guidelines. For example, Japanese investment trusts own 7% of the Vietnam stock market, which has barely budged since the earthquake. But at least it provides a partial picture of the potential extent of the ongoing Great Japanese Unwind. Nobody knows how big the carry trade unwind by Mrs. Watanabe is. But it's prudent to assume that, given the high savings rate in Japan, repatriation may continue for awhile if the nuclear situation keeps worsening. Too bad for Japan Inc., since a strong yen is exactly what they don't need.

     

    This changes the short-term (days) trade. If the situation improves, stocks would rebound strongly while the yen may drop; otherwise more of the same -- tanking stocks and surging Yen. Whether this will impact U.S. Treasuries or not remains to be seen.

     

    But it doesn't change the longer-term outlook. Japan will surely go into recession, possibly a severe and painful one. And, since central bankers all over the world are 100% confident they can eliminate business cycles that are the healthy, evolutionary mechanism, self-correcting the fundamental flaws of the free market system, much like a forest fire, BoJ will continue printing their way into disaster. Where JGB has been at the peripheral of the bond vigilantes' radar so far, it will be at the center soon (could be in months). On this side of the pond, the Fed will of course continue printing as the economic fallout trickles in.

     

    A big question is whether this unwind will be contagious and trigger a global one comparable to the panic in 2008. My answer is no. It is very unlikely that a nuclear meltdown, as terrible as it may be for Japan, would cause much global direct damage. A Japanese recession would have global implications, but it would come later and slower. Precious metals and commodities will enjoy strong support by the suicidal central bankers. Granted, commodities inflation driven by excess money will kill all economies; but that's of no concern for central bankers since their goal in life is to create inflation, and their inflation detector is designed not to detect any until too late.

     

    A commodities rebound may be delayed compared to precious metals, though, because the supply-demand argument may cause some hesitation. But people have no choice other than to continue on the moronic, suicidal path of commodities inflation, driven by moronic central bankers around the world. No doubt central bankers are very intelligent people. Problem with very intelligent people is that they can screw up much bigger and for much longer than others are capable of.

     

    And a few things we can say are not:

    The earthquake/tsunami/nuclear-meltdown triple whammy is not bullish for Japan nor the world at large. It's hard to imagine a more idiotic argument.

    The commodities market is not driven by supply-demand at the time-scale longer than days at most.

    The yen's surge is not because it's a safe haven.

     

    Disclosure: I am long GLD, PHYS, SLV, DBA.

     

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/258629-the-great-japanese-unwind-and-how-it-will-play-out-globally

    great post LB :)


  5. http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/

     

    Summary

    The mix-adjusted average Asking Price for homes on the market in England

    and Wales has risen by 0.4% since last month.

    Monthly asking price rises in all English regions and Scotland but prices fell

    0.5% in Wales.

    The number of properties reduced in price has increased further to 76,075

    for the month of February, 76% more than in February 2010.

    Typical time on market has fallen 9 days to 141 days (median).

    Properties new to market in Feb 2011 was 40% higher than in Feb 2010

    Annual change in asking prices: -0.8%

    6-month change in asking prices: -0.7%

     

     

    also some comment on BTL and inflation...


  6. I am thinking about starting a new thread:

     

    Falling food and energy prices causing riots all over the world

    Hyper-deflation threatens to make everyone insanely rich

     

    The reason is that I don't want to spoil this thread or other people's with sarcasm, but on the other hand it would be a nice vehicle to let off some steam and lead the deflation arguments ad absurdum. What do people think?

     

    The thought is to be a little like John Stewart's Today Show - the comedy stuff is often having the more accurate news (or general message) than the mainstream.

     

    General topics could be:

     

    - "Let them eat cake"

    - "If you can't afford rice, by a yacht!"

    - "Ben is NOT printing money"

    - "People have no money in their hands"

    - "One billion Chinese don't matter"

    - "Money always sleeps"

    - "This is totally unexpected"

    - "Gold approaching $200"

    - "People now using silver to wire their homes"

    - ...

     

    Comments are welcome.

     

    Ha ha

     

    another topic could be

    "Property is safe haven""


  7. Some shocking figures here. Merv better get printing pretty fast before we have mass bankruptcies ....

     

    http://www.debtmanagementtoday.co.uk/newss...panies_owe_53bn

     

    Final comments excellent:

     

    "Alongside weak growth, we now have the very real prospect that more money will be printed, which will further dilute Sterling. Stagflation is now a real and imminent threat. Although the extreme weather conditions would certainly have contributed to the shock performance of the economy in Q4, the real reasons for its continued stagnation are far more fundamental.

    "Consumer spending and demand have been decimated by rising unemployment, rising living costs and the prospect that rates could rise sooner rather than later as inflation runs out of control.”

     

     


  8. Yes.

    You may have noticed the detail from my data grid:

     

    Year-on-year figures...

     

    Mon.: Rt'move : London :

    2009

    D : : 221,463 : 398,426 :

    2010

    D : : 222,410 : 408,248 :

    Year on Year:

    yoy: +0.42% : +2.47% :

     

    London was up 2% more than UK-wide for Rightmove.

    But both were down almost -3% in December.

    It will be interesting to see whether this rapid rate of collapse continues into 2011.

     

    The rightmove index is so volatile its really just noise.

    Hometrack and Home indices are better IMO

     


  9. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...l-runs-low.html

     

     

     

     

    An estimated two million homes, schools and hospitals face fuel rationing over Christmas after MPs warned that supplies of heating oil would hit ‘crisis’ point during the cold snap.

     

    As snow began falling again across the country, the Government confirmed that the situation could become “very serious,” with some households already facing waits of up to four weeks before they can receive supplies.

     

    The Office of Fair Trading announced that it was monitoring allegations of price fixing among suppliers, as the average cost of a litre of oil leapt to more than 70p from just over 40p a month ago.

     

    Around six per cent of households rely on heating oil, many in remote areas away from mains supplies. Six out 10 families in Northern Ireland, 505,000 homes, are dependent on oil deliveries.

     

    There are another 828,000 users in England and 155,000 in Scotland. Figures are unavailable for Wales, but are likely to be significant due to the high levels of households outside of towns and cities.

     

    Across the United Kingdom, a number of public bodies, including rural schools and hospitals, also depend on oil for heat.

     

    More money chasing less goods?

     

     


  10. EDIT: I guess if Germany took on the PIIGS and the ECB would just print it all up to paper over it, Eurozone as a whole could end up where Britain is today (a phony economy with lots of people holding huge entitlements, plus a zombie banking sector). A thought many Germans are quite afraid of.

     

    Germans may be afraid of it but IMO it is inevitable.

     

    However, the comparison you draw with Britain is not so. Britain will still be deeper in the $hit.

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