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tinecu

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Posts posted by tinecu

  3. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Up to 1190... then straight down to 1168. Silver back to 17.90

     

     

    Paper gold sold to try and cool things off.

     

    I wonder if this could morph into something bigger here with investors increasingly nervous about sovereign debt.

     

    Of course it will! :lol:

     

     

  5. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

  6. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    gglllaaa.gif

     

     

    So far the price action in gold looks remarkably similiar to what was seen in early 2008. Following that precedent, gold should bounce of 1080 odd here, go up to 1180 odd, before turning back down to revisit triple digit prices. This might also co-incide with a general sell-off in the markets [a few months out]. The big price rise in gold would then follow in the latter part of the year on a new spike.

     

    Strong dollar today: 80.70

     

    Hard to agree with you when I look at the 5 or 10yr charts....

     

    Its looks parabolic to me.

     

     

  7. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    I'm hoping to buy back in and make more money when they realise that there isn't any more money :) I just need the heads of states to keep talking positively long enough for gold to drop about 10% then I'll buy back in.

     

    No, I am not sure. I actually don't know what I am doing at all. I am just trying to go with my gut for once. I still have some money in, so if I'm wrong I still make a little more.

     

    Since goldfinger isn't around just now (sob) I must reiterate his sage advice....

     

    DON'T TRADE GOLD!

  8. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Nice chart. So gold mining stocks have been in a 5 year bear market relative to the price of gold. As I see it there's more potential for a bigger percentage move in gold mining stocks than physical/ETF's.

     

    I guess that's a more positive way of looking at it and perhaps more realistic.

     

     

  9. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    It's a chart of the goldminers index priced in gold. It could portend a slump in gold whilst equities stay where they are.

     

    Ahem. so I got the ratio the ratio the wrong way round.

     

    So golds going to $400 (approx) if paper stays the same?

     

    Seems unlikely.

     

     

  10. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Fun with fractals - looks like the rocket is off

     

    HUItoGoldratio11yearchartthru2-26-1.png

     

    Chart from Gold versus Paper

     

     

    mmm. Nice work.

     

    So reading from your chart... if paper stays the same, gold goes to $3000/toz over two years if the same move is repeated in the same time frame?

  11. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...x_gAo&pos=3

     

    Oops, and all of a sudden it would be 5% cheaper for 1 billion Chinese to buy gold, oil, copper, silver, whatever. Darn it!

     

    OK, now imagine they do 50%. :)

     

    And then 100%.

     

    And then 200%.

     

    Some more on this...http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1712559220100217?type=usDollarRpt

     

    "Many Western economists maintain that China's currency is undervalued by 25 to 40 percent, giving Chinese companies an unfair advantage in international trade."

  12. UK House prices: News & Views

    in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond

    Posted

    Beginning to doubt whether this is just a dead cat bounce, maybe we have underestimated the British obsession with property. Could the property cat have ten lives?

     

    Spoke to a friend who is a small time property developer/landlord in Wimbledon, and he says property around there is selling at an all time high, higher than 2007/8 and very quickly.

     

    He reckons anyone who had the guts to buy last winter would have made 15 to 20% in a matter of just a few months

     

    Where the hell are people getting all this money from? house in SW19 are not cheap. A small terrace will set you back £600k

     

    Not sure Wimbledon is representative of the UK

     

    According to this report, prices are retreating after the bounce, perhaps the beginning of the next leg down.

     

    http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_SEP09.pdf

     

    Also note time on market for Wimbledon beginning to rise again despite limited supply.

  14. UK House prices: News & Views

    in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond

    Posted

    And so the dead cat bounces on...

     

    http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_JULY09.pdf

     

    A Wall of Unemployment

    The effect of the credit crunch on the wider economy has been devastating. UK GDP

    is now 4.9 per cent lower than the first quarter of 2008, the largest fall on record

    and jobs are disappearing. According to the office of national statistics, the last three

    months to April saw “the largest quarterly fall in the number of people in

    employment since comparable records began in 1971”. Clearly, this is not the sort of

    economic data that would support rising house prices and it looks set to worsen

    before it improves. The nascent recovery in property sales appears too weak to

    counter such economic headwinds.

  16. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Well 4 out of 5 aint bad....well after having a closer look, yesterday's close was 926.30, today's open was 926.

     

    5pj2uw.gif

     

    So there you have it 'technically' I am right! So it is 5 out of 5!

     

    The fisherman's also just posted some lovely TA...cheers jesse - I thought I was the only one on here who liked pnf charts!

     

    Nice ;)

  17. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Nice analysis here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/146132-no-...cle_lb_articles

     

    This chart features the gold to the UDN ratio. The latter is the symbol for PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund, which moves in the exact opposite direction of the USD Index. Since the USD Index is a weighted average of the dollar's currency exchange rates with world's most important currencies, we may use the gold:UDN ratio to estimate the value of gold prices in "other currencies".

  21. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    I think what are talking about is dollar cost averaging down (DCAD). I think this is a good way to buy volatile stocks, but you need to have a firm plan before you start. For example, lets say you have approx $10,000 you want to invest. What you should do is this:

     

    Month 1 - invest $100

    Month 2 - invest $200

    Month 3 - invest $400

    Month 4 - invest $800

    Month 5 - invest $1600

    Month 6 - invest $3200

     

    Now all that adds up to $6,300. You can of course use the 3,700 as a rainy day fund or just buy and hold. Of course if you can do this for the full 12 months then I personally think that you will be in the money!

     

    This can be dangerous though, it can be like throwing good money after bad. However, as each month passes you buy more than your existing holding. This is why you need to have a plan and stick to it regardless of the price or any news.

    Reminds me of a system for roulette (that works! you just have to more than double to cope with 0 and 00).

  22. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Of course I put my money where my mouth is. Indeed I already have done a Gold Short today. In the end I didn't look for confirmation from gold bugs like your goodself as invariably I would get the sort of response like you provided. I just wanted to share some views. So I apologise for doing that.

     

    The fact remains that you can not answer why RSI and CMF is so high. I had read the posts - please show me which one answers this - or can't you be bothered "bla, bla bla".

     

    Careful with your 'Shortz' :unsure:

  24. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Not sure - it could work differently this time, but I would expect there to be a corresponding rise in house prices along with gold if they reach a bottom sometime between late 2011 and late 2012 and there is significant inflation. The pattern of a mini-boom like this could occur again where house prices peak at around the time that gold makes it's peak in 2014/2015? - the point I was trying to make is that you might not even need that much gold to buy the average house outright, so long as you buy the house at the bottom of the market with mininal money down and hold onto your gold positions.

     

    Obviously you still have to make the interest payments, but if you've bought near the bottom then it's likely that this is going to cost the same or less than the cost of renting anyway so it's still a winner. Any spare money could then be invested in the stockmarket at around 2017/2018 which would likely be the absolute low point in price earnings valuations from where a new 17/18 year secular bull market in stocks might begin.

     

    Great investment overview and one that I broadly agree with.

     

    Is see the rent vs. interest payments as good for the owner occupier but I suspect the deposit will still need to be rather large even at the bottom.

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