tinecu
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Posts posted by tinecu
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It's lengthy but well written and explains nearly everything you need to know.
Oxford Economics's - "The impact of inflation and deflation on the case for gold"
A fairly rigorous report but weren't Oxford Economics the guys that said that UK house prices were NOT over valued back in 2006/7? How on earth do they see house prices outperforming gold in a stagflationary environment? Thus far it has been the contrary.
They fail to see the potential hyper-inflationary scenario. Moreover their 'baseline scenario' is a 'return to normal'! How naive!
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It has sod all to do with the politicians. Interest rates have fallen and the market has priced in ZIRP for at least another 2 years, and this should be enough to sustain current prices and maybe even see a 5-10% rise imo. Mortgage rates are a lot lower now for 85-90% LTV deals than they were a year ago. Eg, you can get 3.99% for an 85% LTV from many lenders, which is around a full 1% cheaper than you could get a year ago, so the relative cost of buying has fallen significantly vs renting.
I don't buy the whole financial armageddon scenario - although if that did happen we'll have a lot more to worry about that just overpriced houses. You've been spending too much time listening to the goldbugs.
Perhaps you should take at the comment section in the Home.co.uk report.
http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/
Inflation is destroying house values in real terms.
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More figures looking gloomy
Yet, as we keep saying, it is a market of many sub-markets
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14885963
infinitely better!
EA's, gotta love em 
Then there's the home.co.uk asking price index...
http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/
See the comment section on negative equity.
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Recently at the Chavez mansion.
Secretary: Mr President, a phone call for your excellency.
Chavez: Who could it be?
Secretary: The JPMorgue, your excellency.
Chavez: The JPMorgue! Always nice talking to them, put them through.
JPMorgue: Hello Mr President. How are you doing?
Chavez: Fine, fine. What's up?
JPMorgue: Mr President, regarding your gold...
Chavez: Oh, yes, yes. Just ship it back to us as soon as you can.
JPMorgue: Errh, Mr President, the gold...
Chavez: Is there a problem with our gold?
JPMorgue: Mr President...
Chavez: This is the gold of the people of Venezuela. I want you to ship it back to us right now.
JPMorgue: Mr President, the gold...
Chavez: You still have it, right? You have it right there in your vault in Manhattan, right?
JPMorgue: Mr President...
Chavez: You gross little bastewards, you immense morons, are you trying to tell me that the gold of the Venezuelan people is not there anymore?
JPMorgue: Errrh, Mr President, let us explain...
Chavez: I'll sent my agents over with the next flight!
JPMorgue: Mr President...
Chavez: I can't fudging believe it. What have you morons done to my people's gold?
JPMorgue: Mr President, your gold is still on deposit with us.
Chavez: Good, good. Just ship it on the earliest flight tomorrow morning.
JPMorgue: Mr President...
Chavez: I know that I am the President. Just ship the gold, okay?
JPMorgue: Mr President, "on deposit" does not mean that it is immediately available for physical delivery.
Chavez: WHAT? Who do you try kidding here? I'll sent my agents over!
JPMorgue: Mr President...
Chavez: I knew it, you bl00dy morons have sold it! You simply SOLD the gold of the people of Venezuela?
JPMorgue: Mr President...
Chavez: Admit it!
JPMorgue: Mr President, it is not...
Chavez: Admit it, or my agents will visit you tonight!
JPMorgue: Yes, but, ...
Chavez: What BUTT? I will spank your butt! Give us back our gold NOW!
JPMorgue: Errh...
Chavez: Why have I paid all these storage fees to you crooks?
JPMorgue: Mr President, errh, the JPMorgue would like to offer you a deal.
Chavez: A deal?
JPMorgue: Yes, a deal.
Chavez: WHAT deal?
JPMorgue: Mr President, we offer you to pay back the gold in freshly printed U.S. Dollars. Professor Bernanke is down in the basement right now, cranking up the press for you.
Chavez: You bl00dy morons, I want my GOLD!
JPMorgue: Mr President...
Chavez: You better give me the gold soon, or...
JPMorgue: Mr President, why would you not take our freshly printed Federal Reserve Notes?
Chavez: You insane morons, because I want gold!!
JPMorgue: Mr President, we don't have the gold.
Chavez: Then buy it back!
JPMorgue: Mr President, this would cause a huge price spike in the market, since there is not much physical gold around these days.
Chavez: I don't care. You idiots buy it back for us, no matter what the price is.
JPMorgue: Mr President, are you sure you would not like to take our freshly printed Greenbacks? You would not even have to take physical delivery, because we would store them electronically for you at the Federal Reserve...
Chavez: You IDIOTS!
JPMorgue: Mr President, please...
Chavez: BUY BACK THE GOLD NOW, OR...!
JPMorgue: Mr President, this could mean a huge financial loss for the JPMorgue, a massive upward correction in the price of gold, and a further weakening of confidence in the global financial system and the U.S. Dollar.
Chavez: YOU IDIOTS, I WANT MY GOLD!
JPMorgue: Mr President, please...
Chavez: Anything else?
JPMorgue: Mr President...
Chavez: HASTA PRONTO!
JPMorgue: Mr President?
Secretary: Can I help you...?
Excellent. Thanks GF
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Perhaps she thinks she is doing her job by lying thru her teeth
Rightmove today (Monday) announced a 3.4% drop in London asking prices.
And that's 3% down / -GBP 14,400 in a single month.
It looks like Crash Cruise speed is coming back... and in a hurry
That's odd as Home.co.uk reported prices ticked up in London this month
http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/
the rightmove index is rather noisy month on month
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Got it -
The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
Yup that's the one!
Pure prose.
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Can anyone help?
I'm looking for the famous Mises (is it? Maybe Rothbard) about piling on more debt leading to the collapse of the currency itself.
Thanks in advance
I think that's where Mises refers to the 'crack up' boom.
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Like it or not, (I don't) more people are renting and rents are still rising. That will only lead to more BTL
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14135553
And it's not just the VI's
I mean, seriously, with a yield of >6% and a fixed rate 10 year mortgage of less than 5% (with inflation expected over the period) it's not rocket science to think that BTL'ers will increase, is it?
You don't get that (gross) yield everywhere:
http://www.home.co.uk/company/press/the_uks_best_buy_to_let_locations.htm
Take out management costs, capital losses due to falling house prices and maintenance and it looks like a dreadful investment.
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By the looks of it UK house prices will be headed south for a while before the grand recovery (in nominal terms!) by 2020
See:
http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/
http://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_market_report.htm?location=london&all=1
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We'll almost certainly retest the dollar highs in the next couple of days, then it gets interesting.
I expect the main rises to be in terms of GBP and EUR until the Autumn
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If the cube is 20x20x20m then I calc there is 25grams per person on the planet (6 billion people).
if the cube is only 20m3 then a lot less....
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The high end will never be affected... yaddayadda... oil sheiks yaddayadda...
Not so in Greenwich UK
http://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_market_report.htm?location=greenwich&all=1
I wonder how long it will be before this market comes to a grinding halt. When mortgage interest rates soar I suppose and the first signal of that has come from Moody's.
Are UK banks still getting funding from the BoE 'on the cheap' so to speak?
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Home asking price index up 0.4% MoM but down Yoy 0.9%
Interesting comment on the 'hidden' losses associated with investing in property when it doesn't keep up with inflation. Quite alarming.
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How much have UK house prices fallen in real money?
Once they started down the road of securitization, let alone QE, measuring house prices in Sterling means nothing. They should be on the floor by now but a big fiddle was done.
So, we had an initial fall of some 30%??? Further subtract the fall in the Pound, another 30%. In reality they're already 60% down.
Does any of that make sense?
Yup. See page 8 in this report.
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Anyone on here know of a supplier of gold dust/dore (normally 92%)?
200+Kg/month needed.
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http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/
Summary
The mix-adjusted average Asking Price for homes on the market in England
and Wales has risen by 0.4% since last month.
Monthly asking price rises in all English regions and Scotland but prices fell
0.5% in Wales.
The number of properties reduced in price has increased further to 76,075
for the month of February, 76% more than in February 2010.
Typical time on market has fallen 9 days to 141 days (median).
Properties new to market in Feb 2011 was 40% higher than in Feb 2010
Annual change in asking prices: -0.8%
6-month change in asking prices: -0.7%
also some comment on BTL and inflation...
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This won't help prices go up...
http://www.home.co.uk/guides/news/story.htm?uk_mortgage_rates_rise_to_highest_level_in_6_months
Although some fools will read it as "better get a mortgage now while rates are low"....
Then negative equity will plague them for years.
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Yep Great charts Gf n Pix
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Gold broke 1350! Not happy
.That's some serious buying
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http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_JAN11.pdf
Home.co.uk figures show Dr Bubb may be correct about the next leg down.
How far down they go depends on supply though....
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Yes.
You may have noticed the detail from my data grid:
Year-on-year figures...
Mon.: Rt'move : London :
2009
D : : 221,463 : 398,426 :
2010
D : : 222,410 : 408,248 :
Year on Year:
yoy: +0.42% : +2.47% :
London was up 2% more than UK-wide for Rightmove.
But both were down almost -3% in December.
It will be interesting to see whether this rapid rate of collapse continues into 2011.
The rightmove index is so volatile its really just noise.
Hometrack and Home indices are better IMO
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Confirmation of the continuing bull market.
Confirmation and promulgation of the continuing bull market.
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Quite an attack on the gold price from NY open.
$18 down and then a strong bounce.
Still plenty of dips to buy in
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It actually was back in 2004.
http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/UK_H...es_in_Gold.html
People who sold their house in 2004 and bought silver from the proceeds can now buy 5.5 houses back!
Anyone? And silver is NOT done here, that's for sure!
http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/UK_H..._in_Silver.html
Nice graphs GF
EA's, gotta love em 
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UK House prices: News & Views
in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Posted
I see there is not alot of volume in rental accomodation near you.
http://www.home.co.uk/for_rent/driffield/current_rents?location=driffield