tinecu

http://www.google.com/trends?q=oil%2C+mort...=all&sort=0

google trends doesn't suggest 'gold mania' is with us yet.

I think the bullion market was expecting an emergency rate cut - which never happened - instead they decided to soak up 200BN in mortgage paper. This is like plugging the hull of the titanic with a band-aid.

Indeed, the PoG is probably waiting for something more overtly inflationary.

Wow, just got back in and looked at the charts. Hell of a bad day for silver to be honest and I can see the commodity bears clawing their way back into the picture.

 

In fact I'd say my sentiment now is downright negative and I'm fearful of a significant correction.

 

 

This tells me one thing - time to buy more gold and silver.

 

The bears have been suckered in and the bulls have money on the sidelines, a few more days and we'll be at new highs.

Perhaps a few days consolidation and then a further breakout north....in what is becoming a familiar pattern.

The dollar will end up being the new carry trade if this goes on for much longer. Would you believe a reserve currency could up being a carry currency.

It certainly was a carry trade currency when US IRs were 1% and it may be becoming so again.

Quite frankly, the fact that Japan has had IRs so low for so long 'does my head in'....

 

But seriously....the chart to watch is possibly Gold/JPY...if gold starts to founder against the No1 world creditor's currency then gold will loose its lustre and global deflation will occur. Since Aug07 the Yen has not been repatriated to the extent one might have thought. Instead this hot money has moved into commodities where it is yielding well....so far.

Sorry to bump my own thread, but what are your thoughts on the Yen and the Carry trade with respect to the PoG?

More talk of deflation:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080309/bs_nm/...ine_retail_dc_1

But seriously....the chart to watch is possibly Gold/JPY...if gold starts to founder against the No1 world creditor's currency then gold will loose its lustre and global deflation will occur. Since Aug07 the Yen has not been repatriated to the extent one might have thought. Instead this hot money has moved into commodities where it is yielding well....so far.

It's all there: 2nd chart from top: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php

Thanks and this is worth a look....

http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b...00779fd2ac.html

Another HPC refugee here. To be honest, the house price crash is underway, and the macroeconomic stuff (including gold price) is much more interesting now. On the subject of which, I came across this on FT Alphaville:

 

Short View: Things are very bad, or very exaggerated

 

 

 

While I still see gold going up further (on speculation and as a hedge against inflation), has it now gone above its long term price (in dollars)?

Sounds like we need a Goldfinger POG/US house prices graph to assess this better....

Hi

 

What a 24hrs in silver!

 

Very interesting to see Sooo much commentary form you all on here. I've been swapping some rudimetary comments here for a few weeks, but like many others feel my knowledge is also reasonably rudimentary when compared with some of the levels of analysis on GEI. However, as someone who's been doing a lot of reading for the last 3 months I get the jist of lost of the macro (and micro) issues seemingly at play in gold and silver right now.

 

I've had a degree of success with spreadbetting silver and gold futures in the last 2 months and had built a significantly leveraged position by yesterday afternoon before silver tanked yesterday pm (GMT). Due to my level of leverage the tanking made me very nervous (as Jim Rogers says "you don't want to be that man". Thankfully I was able to keep my positions open until the price rebound THIS pm to around $20.20 and then closed half my positions to minimise risk (and avoid the next haart attack!) in the belief we were seeing a "see-sawing" downwards correction; only for the price to then motor onwards to the $20.89!

 

I've now had a chance to try and digest the masses of info on this post from the last 48 hours. Question is how real do people here believe any "commercial signal failure" to be and have I sold out too much of my position too soon? Will there be pullbacks to in the very short term to re-enter...?

 

Also, any likemind spreadbetters out there feel free to PM me to swap thoughts, share concerns...!

 

Opinions greatly appreciated.

Sounds like you've really been through it

Buy physical and relax more.

These corrections are what is required to the PMs into orbit. The short sellers that pile in for the "big one" and nervous nellies all end up buying back in at higher prices - adding rocket fuel at 1000 octane.

Yep. Like trying to pacify a hornets nest by hitting it with a stick!

Hi GF et al,

Great to have caught up with you lot. I think we'll have more fun here!

Quite a smackdown....

Cheers

Tinecu