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tinecu

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Everything posted by tinecu

  1. tinecu

    MAJOR DERIVATIVE MELTDOWN ALERT

    Seeking alpha article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/94314-the-...nk-intervention worth a read.... Liked these bits: "The end game is a hope, on the part of the central banks that, in a matter of a few months, market psychology can be materially altered. Losses to the innocent third parties is considered inevitable “fallout” of war – something like friendly fire and collateral damage in real war. This mentality is fundamentally flawed. The lessons taught by Adam Smith, in his Wealth of Nations, are ignored, in favor of a type of financial “fascism”. Central bankers are essentially copying the type of bankrupt micro-management that caused the downfall of the former Soviet Union. The IMF, and these same central bankers have often condemned emerging market countries, like Venezuela, Argentina and India, for practicing the same type of financial fascism, and rightfully so. Yet, now, they are involved in it too." and "...it is very likely that a few hundred billion more dollars will need to be printed to bail out the FDIC insurance fund, as noted in my previous writings, with similar end results, due to fractional banking principles. In short, the nominal U.S. dollar money supply is about to increase by exponential amounts, which will inevitably lead to incredible levels of inflation." In brief, China is supporting the USD. When the rally/election is over its down the tubes for the Dollar.
  2. Not sure I trust these stats but... Isn't manufacturing only about 10% of UK GDP? It's the costs of imported goods and food that really matter....and they are rising fast.
  3. tinecu

    GOLD

    Don't forget the backing of the US Military....As I recall Saddam was going to sell his country's oil in Euros. Don't forget the dollar pegs....US sitting very heavily on them even after the recent rally...like the British before they will squeeze their empire dry before they have to feel the real pain of their economic bungling at home. Hence the demise of the US dollar will be a long painful one not a sudden implosion.
  4. tinecu

    GOLD

    Hey guys...what happened? Back from holidays and feeling a little poorer than expected! Silver and Gold taken a bit of a pasting...in dollar terms at least. When do we expect a recovery? or is the market too manipulated now? Should we be like Errol and just keep buying regardless of price as and when we can? Land and a shotgun is seeming more and more attractive.
  5. tinecu

    Gold & Silver in US$, EUR & JPY with MAs

    I think you are onto something here steve. After all Japan is the worlds biggest creditor and we are in a credit crisis...the Yen has be the pivotal currency.
  6. tinecu

    House prices 'up by 25% by 2013'

    This is my concern also. The parallels with this era are alarming, both politically and economically.
  7. This is lovely stuff. http://diaryofapropertybear.blogspot.com/ Great summary of an historic week. Like the 'Armageddon awards'
  8. tinecu

    Hotairmail's diary update

    Another great diary entry from Hotmail...
  9. http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7509729.stm US inflation rate at 26-year high Record oil costs and petrol prices have caused problems worldwide US inflation accelerated at the fastest rate in 26 years in June, fuelled higher by surging energy prices, official figures have shown. Consumer prices rose by 1.1% in June, the Labor Department said, more than the 0.7% many analysts had expected. Federal Reserve boss Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday that the threat of rising inflation had intensified recently. High inflation will make it harder for the Fed to cut rates and boost an economy hurt by a housing market slump. 'Fed in a hole' The Fed chairman, who faces his second day of congressional testimony on Wednesday, also warned about the "downside" risks to growth in the world's largest economy. There is so much uncertainty in the market right now that news of higher inflation doesn't mean a rise in interest rates Stephen Malyon, Scotia Capital Many analysts now believe that the central bank may have to leave borrowing costs on hold as it tries to steer a faltering economy through turbulent times. "There is so much uncertainty in the market right now that news of higher inflation doesn't mean a rise in interest rates," said Stephen Malyon, analyst at Scotia Capital in Toronto. The US faces a severe housing slump, a credit crunch and financial market turmoil stemming from the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market. The impact of surging living costs in June "really puts the Fed in a hole," said Alan Ruskin, an economist at RBS Greenwich. Gary Thayer of Wachovia Securities agreed that the Fed was facing a tricky balancing act. "This increases concern that the Fed is not going to be able to lower interest rates if the economy remains weak," he explained. "And as long as the economy remains weak, it will be hard for the Fed to raise rates to fight inflation." On annual basis, prices were 5% higher when compared with June 2007, the Labor Department said. Energy surge Energy prices were the main driver of price growth, and were 6.6% higher in June as the cost of petrol, natural gas and heating oil increased. Expectations that that a slowing US economy will dampen demand for oil helped crude prices drop 42 cents to $138.32 in pre-market trade in New York. The annual core inflation rate, which strips out volatile fuel and food prices, was 2.4%. The surge in living costs has also dented the earning power of Americans. Average weekly wages, after adjusting for inflation, fell by 0.9% in June - the biggest monthly decline in 24 years, the Department said. _________________ Wages down too? OMG this is turning nasty...quick inflate faster. BBc still claiming the problem is prices rising and not mentioning the weakness of the dollar.
  10. Ah at last. Reality bites the markets. Beautiful.
  11. tinecu

    GOLD

    Like the graph but isn't the real fed rate -ve now? I've been thinking the same about the 70's ....Gordon Brown has done a remarkable remake of the Callaghan Years.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Callaghan Uncanny!
  12. tinecu

    MAJOR DERIVATIVE MELTDOWN ALERT

    Colossal is almost an understatement. This is what the world has been waiting to see if it would happen. They seem to have no choice?
  13. Negative interest rates, crippled US economy but dollars are still being bought more than sold? G8? Yen carry? I dunno.
  14. tinecu

    Why the Dollar rally?

    Yup. Looks likely to me too...in fact it appears to be happening already.
  15. tinecu

    Why the Dollar rally?

    Jawboning......I love that word. Wonder how many times they can talk the dollar up for it to fall flat on its face yet again.
  16. tinecu

    Why the Dollar rally?

    Well of course. However, I suppose I was wondering where the support from the dollar might be coming from...e.g. SWFs or margin calls? Fishing I suppose, on an uneventful day.
  17. Hence, Germany are so keen to preserve the value of the Euro....lest their auto manufacturing faces the same fate.
  18. But will Japan raise rates ? Like they should have done years ago for the sake of the world at large!
  19. Shortage of mortgage credit ain't going to change in the short term, but the real killer for anyone trying to get mortgage finance now (even with a 20%+ deposit) is the up front 'Set up fee'.... see: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/news/story.ht...rrangement_fees To my mind this added pain for buyers will almost ensure a 50% drop in house prices. Poor poor UK economy.
  20. And that is exactly what they should do. As a massive net oil importer I don't see the EU as having any choice. Moreover, the massive yen carry that this greater safety margin would initiate would supply much needed liquidity in EU markets IMO.
  21. A cut? Don't you mean a rise to 4.25%? Or do you mean a gold price fall?
  22. tinecu

    SILVER

    Nice price jump to 18.28 on the London close today...NY is buying I guess.
  23. tinecu

    GOLD

    thanks Steve et al for your comments. I think BV >> great to get in quickly GoldMoney >> worth the hassle in the long run. Cheers Tinecu
  24. tinecu

    GOLD

    Hi GF, Why use both BV and GM? Wouldn't one or the other suffice? Cheers Tinecu
  25. tinecu

    SILVER

    Here we go!
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