G0ldfinger

Good to see a few familiar avatars around! Still holding all my gold and silver and adding to it every now and then. The wait has been long, so a little up-move in the metals would be nice to see. But I am very patient, and one has to be, it seems.

Interestingly, Dan Norcini is not at all bullish on silver: Agressive Hedge Fund Selling Plagues Silverhttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.de/2014/08/agressive-hedge-fund-selling-plagues.html

It seems that we are contrarians here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-25/gold-drops-toward-two-month-low-as-silver-slips-to-10-week-low.html

I sorta nailed this one back in the days: I think the jury is still out on this one: These are indicators that silver will outperform gold, and I think gold's resurrection is only a question of time given none of the deeper financial issues in Europe (and elsewhere) have been resolved. Call me Silverfinger!

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/DJIA-Gold-Ratio_Q_LOG.html http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Gold-Silver-Ratio_Q.html

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html

See you up thereeee!

DOUBLE.

Further to Igglepiggle's growing imbalances and ALK's criticism of my thinking that QE is here to stay. ALK, don't you see how QE is becoming engrained into the system and how we are slowly getting used to it? Those people who bought your NZ house or who are buying houses in the UK, US or Germany right now, they enjoy ridiculously low interest rates. Fine if they're fixed, but most of them are not. They take on a ginormous mortgage fixed for 5 years or so, and then you think they would be able to cope with, say for starters, triple the rates when the Fed stops QE? Also, the deficit in the U.S. has been reduced by sequestering, but this is a drag on the economy. Meanwhile the Fed has until recently monetized that whole deficit! So, do you really think they will start paying down debt soon, or at least keep it constant? No, again, QE will become accustomed to as the new normal. It's like NuLabour made sure that all the UK's debt was paid back during the boom years - oh, wait, it wasn't! Great surprise!! Read that famous book on the French hyperinflation following the revolution. It's appaling how history does not just rhyme, but seemingly repeat itself right here right now. Only, as I said, this thing is big, like a supersized super-tanker, so it will take off slowly.

DOUBLE POST.

What is the inflation rate at the time? What are interest rates doing? Who is the Fed Chair(Wo)man? Is it bail-ins or bail-outs, or both? What is MZM doing? What is money velocity doing? How is the US/Europe/China/Japan doing? How easy is credit? How are commodities like food and energy doing? One way of getting out could be to slowly turn gold into cheaper hard assets at the time (property, general stocks), but (if paper markets are still functioning) to speculate in long options to potentially cover any ridiculous spike-ups in the gold price, while keeping some bullion for SHTF liquidity reasons.

Here is where I am at: I have been somewhat surprised by the amount of time the central bankers have been able to buy with their hyperinflation of the monetary base (yes, just tripling it nilly-willy is HI in my opinion). On the other hand, as the likes of Prechter or our very own ALK simply do not grasp that the "deflation" they want to see (even ALK's house in the tundra went up in price over the past years - I'd call that INflation...) is there because of historically low money velocity and because of a certain unwillingness of banks to function as multipliers, this makes sense. For now mass psychology still is in favour of deflationary thinking while the fundamentals lean to the opposite. Fundamentals will - as always - win in the end and velocity will go back to normal and potentially way beyond normal, but it might take a while. The recent gold correction has an almost perfect historic blueprint in the 1974-76 sell-off (only, the fundamentals today are so much better for gold). So, people like Prechter or our very own ALK, who now expect gold to drop to USD 200, will most likely have to eat their hats (if they still own any at the time in question). I hope the traders have been able to trade this, and I hope the investors don't worry - just like me: I have not sold one ounce for divesting out of PMs. I still mostly hold physical gold and silver bullion, but increased gold & silver stock investments during the past two years (so far at a loss). As Igglepiggle points out: the imbalances are growing thanks to the printing presses. He is also right in pointing out that all major fiat currency turds are floating in the same bowl at roughly the same speed. That's why the golden life boat seems less necessary, but of course that's an illusion which will sooner or later disappear (and ALK will wake up and try to buy what by then will be unobtainium). Gold, like other assets, is forward looking when things get rough. The greatest increase in actual value might come (just?) before a large currency collapse or price inflation spike. "You got to be in it to win it." Recent developments in the LBM and the COMEX may be signs that the bottom has been reached and that some major players are in the process of repositioning themselves on the other side of the trade. So, Sinclair's prophecy might come true that in the end the former gold dumpers will make the most profit on the upside. Finally, I have never predicted the end of the world. The financial world as we knew it, however, ended in 2007 and we are sliding deeper into some sort of financial doom (which is entirely normal and happens quite often historically). It is so slow, however, that some (like our very own ALK) are not able to see it. This is to be expected. Further, I see no reason why gold could not be beyond USD 10,000 and the supermarket still be (a-okay) stocked. In fact, I sincerely hope that this will be the case.

Semper ad hominem, numquam ad rem.

Gold just another commodity? After 30,221 posts on this thread, this is still a topic on here? No wonder I had to essentially stop posting at this joint!

All the paper bug chickens are finally coming home to roost. (1) The COMEX gold shenanigans seem to be coming to a very sudden end. They seem to be turning themselves into a cash market (if any market at all) - credit to Sinclair for having predicted that one too! Backwardation in the first two months has been a stark warning for a couple of weeks. (2) Bernanke has proven to the world that the Dow and T-Bonds will just collapse without QE - so any successor (Yellen) of his will have to continue it forever - if they want it or not! (3) No single issue of the crisis since 2007 has been resolved. We are sourrounded by zombie banks that have been feeding on (now as well zombie) states. This is the perfect storm for gold. However, the price action that we have seen over the past two years has been absolutely confusing, and without the intellectual ability and self-confidence to see through the smoke and without the emotional stability to not panic out of sound portfolio positions, many might have been pushed out of gold over the past two years. I suppose this is how it has to be, as otherwise it would (have been) very easy for anyone to become very wealthy in what I think is going to unfold now.