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Vicarious

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About Vicarious

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    Centurion
  1. Is it any different than paying £3 - £4 for a coffee from starbucks or nero when you can get a jar from the supermarket for that? I don't see anything wrong with it, most hotels around there charge £15 for breakfast so being able to nip down for a bowl of cereal for £3.50 doesn't seem like a bad idea.
  2. So I guess like a few here I've been shorting the FTSE each time its hit that 6800 - 6900 top. We've now gone through to an all time high so where do we go from here?
  3. I'd say that's excessive for a 1 bed in Manchester.. For example there is a 1 bed up in the Hacienda which was the club made famous by the "Madchester" scene e.g. the happy mondays (Its been completely rebuilt now though) They normally seem to go for a high premium versus what is around them due to the history of the name and that's only on at £135k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32982834.html According to this: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2918104/What-happened-region-s-rental-costs-2014.html Manchester had the 5th worst performing rental market in the UK last year falling 7%
  4. Vicarious

    GOLD

    I think the 3rd retest of 1180 is nailed on. I also think this time it won't hold and things are going to get alot worse. The miners also seem to have made lower lows with each retest.
  5. Vicarious

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Nadeem has got an article up on his site from Jonathan Davis.. I'm guessing its the same guy who started on Hpc? http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46074.html
  6. Vicarious

    Autumn Budget Statement

    mentioned here. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-2517961/Autumn-Statement-2013-Hopes-middle-income-tax-giveaway-fade.html also mentioned on yahoo finance though both maybe quoting the same source
  7. I know there are some guys on here who trade in the UK within their ISA wrapper. I was wondering what people thought about the possibility of a £100k life time limit which is being rumoured? I'm already over the limit so quite concerned about what tomorrow is going to hold and also really confused about how its going to work when the stock market can swing so wildly and in the case of mining shares I guess people could be down 60 - 70% and so effectively loose their life time allowance.
  8. Vicarious

    GOLD

    indeed, I listened to financial sense for the first time in a while this weekend. I'm sure they called the bottom June. Now seemed to be saying gold is finished and the inflationists don't understand the modern financial system. I guess I missed the episode where they said they were wrong. I wonder what sort of calls they are getting currently?
  9. yep, Ive got both trading and isa and dont get charged the fee, also recently added my sipp.
  10. Vicarious

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Most of last nights Max Keiser was about UK housing, Dominic on again too! http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=z3sJnAUUEaE http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UWFum8fscKE
  11. Vicarious

    GOLD

    So a lot of talk about physical here, just wondering how people are feeling who are holding the miners, though I guess people might not want to talk about their losses?? I've been pretty defensive trying to target producers with low costs and I'm still hurting so can't imagine what people holding some juniors feel. Just noticed my first investment in black rock gold and general which I bought when gold was under $400 an ounce but have admittedly added to on dips is just about to tick into a loss. Really not sure what to do right now after reading this on fs by Pru Saxena who's opinion I've valued, calling the end of the bull market. http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/puru-saxena/buy-u-s-short-commodities
  12. Vicarious

    UK House prices: News & Views

    House builders have shot up on the back on the budget.
  13. telegraph blog suggesting Russia may threaten to cut off Germanys gas supply if the eu don't back down.
  14. Vicarious

    The U.K. Is Not O.K.

    British Pound Heading for Sterling Crisis 2015 http://www.marketora...ticle38392.html [quote ]Right at the top of the banking pyramid you have an institution called the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), writes Paul Tustain - founder and director of BullionVault. It acts like a central bank for central banks. Germany can draw down currency from the Bank of England and deposit it into the BIS. Again, it just writes the cheque drawn on the importer's central bank, and pays it into its BIS account. You could say Germany has placed its 'Foreign Currency Reserve' at the BIS. The BIS does lots of things I don't understand. But I am starting to understand the Special Drawing Right (SDR). It's a sort of 'compost' currency worth - at the moment - about the same as a Pound. You can mix it up yourself in the garden - as a heap of slowly rotting currencies in the following proportions: US Dollars (0.66) Euros (0.42) Yen (12) and Pounds (0.11). The package gets acquired by exporters when they flip all sorts of other accumulated foreign currency. The BIS's Special Drawing Right allows countries acquiring - say - too many Rupees (that would be exporters to India, like Thailand, who don't want to accumulate the ever inflating Indian Rupee) to flip out of Rupees into this super-solid mixture of 'top' currencies, packaged as an SDR. But the Rupee not being in the SDR the BIS looks to dispose of it. So the Rupee stays low, which in principle makes it easier for India to export. Our careful analysis shows that the SDR composition allows the UK and US to be lazy, and everyone else to turn a blind eye. Few British or American workers have any intention of doing anything cheaper than a Thai factory worker, so their negative balances have in the meantime been parked with the Thais - within SDRs - as a store of wealth. The Thais are assuming that this makes a good solid base for Thailand's own 'Foreign Currency Reserve'. For as long as everyone else is buying Pounds as part of a package labelled SDRs (or indeed in their own right) this allows the British to run a big trade deficit for a very, very long time. Lots of the outstanding calls on the British to get off their collective ass are frozen into those SDRs and held by the rest of the world as a trusted store of value. The Pound is by a long way the most overweight currency in the SDR, being 11% of its value but less than 3% of the world economy. It's an enormous current privilege for us British.The world's financial garden mulch could be legitimately advertised "Now with extra British Pounds!" Somehow the British got to this situation of being a key component of the SDR. But as a component - and from the point of view of the user of SDRs - you'd have to say the Pound is now spectacularly unfit for the purpose. The inclusion of the Pound, a long time ago, was at a time when the British economy may have merited its inclusion (I really don't know) and, this inclusion being decided by committee, and in the absence of a crisis, it remains the status quo today. But it has helped hold our currency high making it still harder for us to export - even though we run a large trade deficit. It encourages us to enjoy cheap imports, and works to increase the imbalance in world trade in goods. It has also caused SDR holders to hold a chunk of Pounds which they might reasonably see as overvalued, which ought to matter to people like the Thais, and the Chinese, because the whole point of the SDR for them is to store reserves of international purchasing power. As it happens the recipe for the SDR is re-set periodically. The next re-setting is due in January 2015. Since the last re-set the Chinese have become the world's biggest exporters, and exporting countries are looking for a secure store of value. They have been accommodated by ownership of SDRs - and lots of Sterling held directly too. As a Brit I really don't like looking at the way this could play out. Why would all the voters on the IMF and BIS committees continue to support the Pound being overweight in the composition of the SDR? Why would the Chinese seek an SDR that incorporates Sterling? What would happen if there were a move to make an overdue and substantial reduction in the British weighting or - even - to replace it with Chinese Renminbi. When push comes to shove, if the Americans and the Chinese are arguing over Chinese suppression of their exchange rate, and the Chinese are offering the Renminbi as a replacement for Sterling within the SDR, would the British deserve or get any support from America, or anywhere? No, they would not. The Americans want a more expensive Renminbi, the Chinese want a bigger slice of the international montary action for the Renminbi, and the Europeans (the other big voting bloc, and a major SDR component) could be absolutely relied upon to support the Pound's marginalisation and a few British financial chickens coming home to roost. In the Eurozone they are starting to understand that this is what financial chickens generally do. It looks possible that the case everyone will rightly make is that the SDR should be composed of the currencies of strong exporters - because this both secures the SDR as a meaningful Foreign Currency Reserve, and helps to bring world trade into balance. The Pound - I believe - could soon be isolated, marginalised, and eventually ejected from the SDR's composition, leading to a big surplus of ex-SDR pounds being available on international currency markets. I don't think there will be many takers.
  15. Well after reading this thread in November I've booked to visit Budapest and Vienna in April. I'd also like to take a trip out to Leipzig at some point.. maybe in the second half of the year. German property has interested me for some time and I was actually looking at Berlin in 2009 but sadly didn't go through with it. Does anyone know of any property funds which may offer exposure to some of these places? The ones I've found all seem to have a heavy UK weighting which doesnt really interest me.
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