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El Dali

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About El Dali

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    Centurion
  • Birthday 08/17/1976

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  1. El Dali

    The challenges of value investing

    Exactly. What's more, there are times when you'll have plenty of choices as to where you can value-invest in stocks. IMO now is not one of them. But it will come. Keep reading all you can in the meantime.
  2. El Dali

    RIP Zapata George

    I'm gutted. Zapata was consistently a real entertaining listen. He wore his gold chain constantly (apparently) - talked some sense too. RIP Zapata.
  3. El Dali

    When to buy B P

    Tricky one: Really oversold now, but i hear on R4 this morning that US authorities are wanting to stop BP giving dividends till they pay back env damage in full. Really obvious point, but if this isn't just rhetoric and the dividend is stopped the stock will plummet.
  4. Bounced off it a couple of times but above 1050 now. But nothings inconceivable. This is a week to stay nimble i think...
  5. Small and medium caps (Russ 2k) have been leading this downtrend over past couple of days which is not a good sign. On pretty big breadth too.. Maybe if S&P knocks below ~1040 (feb low) we won't even get back up to near the April highs.
  6. El Dali

    Beware June 2nd

    Pretty sure they do DD. Larry P says the moves could commence anytime around the first week of June. Let's see.
  7. Hendry said he'd back the truck up on Gold because he's extremely bullish on it longterm. He sees a v large deflationary period which will knock gold (albeit far less than other asset classes), then buy his gold when we turn to the ensuing inflationary period. His view is "What's the use in being set for inflation in a deflationary period". Do things at the right time. Gold will do well whatever if you can take the volatility, but as a hedge fund manager he wants to make money on the downside too. Whether he will or not remains to be seen. IMO Halligan is another tired platitude spouting journalist. Hendry is rude as hell, but only to people who he thinks can't form decent judgements. Listen to that interview again. Halligan is saying QE wont work and the effect will be inflationary. HH is saying that if QE doesn't work it means they cant beat the deflation by trying to engineer inflation. Sachs is a good economist, but very establishment. I like hendry because his args are well formulated and researched. Also changes his mind quick if he's wrong and admits he was wrong. He says it all the time, but hedge fund guys and traders lose their livelihoods if they're wrong big. Academics, journos, politicians, economists and 'analysts' can keep getiing it wrong and usually do. Who you gonna listen to? Its a fair point.
  8. Yes John, 9835 was the Feb low. Teetering around that today. Intraday we're under it. Does closing under it (even by a tiny margin) not confirm a downtrend?
  9. El Dali

    ConDem Manifesto

    Agreed. Looks pretty reasonable given circumstances.
  10. El Dali

    Inflation as anticipated

    It's pretty clear what the authorities want to do. The confidence trick (your gvmt will save you from the worst [stalling growth and prices falling god forbid]) has worked so far. But for how long will people retain this confidence? I suspect a deflation scenario could be very fast and brutal. Pretty much the world and his dog are talking about inflation, but measures (printing!) may come too late to save prices. The likelihood of them balancing this correctly is really very small. That's why i think inflation will be preceeded (and initiated by) by freefall selloffs.
  11. I bought it on a spreadbet with cityindex. I put that money at risk as i was convinced VIX would jump at some point. When i bought it i didnt realise it was a future and very iliquid. Couldn't see a graph of it or anything. I asked them how the price was derived and they told me they're just an execution only broker. Great. VIX would go up on a day and this would go down. Kept happening. Vix up and down but this future down! Horrible not having goos knowledge of your position. I was really uneasy about it. I'd lost half my money and then on Thursday it jumped up (obviously), although not as much as VIX. I got out straight away having made some money, but saw it as a lucky escape from an instrument i got into rashly. Going forward i might just buy VXX if Vix gets under 20 again. Then again CMC markets do a VIX spreadbet. But i'd need to know a bit more about it.
  12. El Dali

    ECB TO QE?

    Agreed, but its like a tightrope walk.
  13. El Dali

    ECB TO QE?

    We know their choice. What remains to be seen is if they have to power to avert the consequences of all the red ink. The likes of Faber think that if mkts fall my a certain amount they'll print like crazy and hold things up. Much like the situation of the past few days but alot bigger. The likes of Prechter thinks the deleveraging will be so big and so fast that they won't have the power. Perhaps traders/public will lose faith in the stimulus mechanism too. As they probably should. Which of these will happen in the big experiment i dont know at all. Kinda suspect we get massive selloffs, followed by extreme printing coming too late. A massive deflation wave followed by severe inflation (hyper?) is pretty much the cruellest scenario for the man on the street.
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