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About ChrisP

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  1. ChrisP

    Oil - Lest You forget

    Trading oil futures is a dangerous game in current conditions...especially with such a long dated contract. It's probably better to buy some long dated calls on the futures or on an oil ETF if you want leverage. Also, don't buy a leveraged ETF for a long-term investment, stick with a 1x ETF. My 2c.
  2. ChrisP

    Oil - Lest You forget

    When commodity futures contracts expire or are near to expiry, those short the contract are required to prepare for making delivery to the longs. If the short is a speculator with no underlying commodity to sell then the short must cover before expiry which will drive up the price. The 16% rise gives you an indication of just how many shorts are in the oil futures market at the moment. It's not time to get long yet, IMHO.
  3. ChrisP

    Too much risk priced in??

    I wouldn't sell just for the premium. It's way to volatile for that, IMO.
  4. ChrisP


    More Islamic hypocrisy...Religion of Peace, yadda yadda yadda. If you go to the races in Dubai you pay your entrance fee then you're given a card with the list of horses on. Because Islam forbids gambling any betting is strictly prohibited. Instead you are allowed to make 'guesses'. The people who make the correct 'guesses' win a prize. No prizes for guessing what the prize is.....
  5. ChrisP

    Banking shares

    One other thing. Stay away from the mining sector - junior miners especially. It's a specialists market and a poor performing one at that. The mid- to long-term future looks utterly dire, in my opinion.
  6. ChrisP

    Banking shares

    Personally, i'd stay out of the stock market. We've not even got close to the bottom. In a few months time I'd buy either some put options (long dated) on U.S T-Bond futures or sell and hold the contracts themselves. Shorting the UK looks like a winning proposition as well for the next 5 years. Alternatively (or as well as), pick up some diversified (soft) commodities through an index (or whatever you like) over the next 2-4 months (averaging in). Or, pick up some corporate bonds. Some banks look interesting here; Goldman's, Barclays,... (This is certainly not investment advice, just an opinion. Feel free to discuss....)
  7. ChrisP

    A Bounce is Due?

    did I hear someone say "long-bond rally"? Lucky I didn't put that short on...
  8. good luck finding an ETF in the UK that shorts us treasuries. You could always short long bond futures if you've got balls of steel!
  9. ChrisP

    A Bounce is Due?

    Thanks Dominic. Re: Shorting long bond futures. That market certainly isn't for the inexperienced trader. You have to be a central bank wonk to understand what drives the up's and down's of the 30 year note. ....having said that, anyone think that the rally on Friday still has more legs?
  10. ChrisP

    Anecdotal - Cityboy

    You can be an interest rate derivatives wizz without knowing squat about macro. People aren't omnipotent. I've been in places which do long only funds that are driven by quant models (getting destroyed) and actively managed (getting destroyed). What's the difference? Too many variables, too much complexity. That's the problem and it's not a result of human incompetence. Quite the opposite. Yet a failure such as this one quickly spreads because nobody understands enough about how to stop it.
  11. ChrisP

    £32k sat in my current account...

    If you want a high risk, high return trade - short the USD in a month or so. (or buy some gold mining shares....)
  12. ChrisP

    Uranium Juniors

    I'm adding to my positions.... (just kidding)
  13. ChrisP

    Currency crisis...

    we've been in a currency crisis for the last year or more. This devaluation of worldwide currencies is only temporary. In 6 months the dollar will be down and next phase of the problem will be apon us and it will be global. By then i'd be out of any deflation hedges (not that i'm in them now unfortunately).
  14. was there really a commodities bull or just a weak dollar a year ago?
  15. ChrisP

    Latest CWR

    Mish doesn't get it. That comment above is in itself a reason for the government to inflate. The US will not default and cause worldwide revolution, they must depreciate the currency to pay off foreign debt. This period of deleveraging is reducing inflation but that is not deflation and will ultimately be inflationary. Mish is convincing but he is also wrong.