grunff

You are right of course, but I guess it boils down to whether you believe we're going to see inflation or deflation.

Oh I fully intend to leverage the hell out of this purchase - but it's a big farm, and I can only borrow so much!

I don't really want to put my life on hold in that way, have things I want to achieve. We've started down a path which leads us to a particular point. It's no set in stone, but it's a path we want to follow. I think I'll sell in stages, maybe starting in a month or so, and see how its looking later in the year.

It doesn't have to be, but that's what would work best for us.

This is what was at the back of my mind - we will see QE3 this year, which will push up the price quite a bit. How silly will I feel if it's at $2500 in Sep and I've already sold most of it. But I guess my focus should be on achieving my main goal.

That sounds like a very sensible plan! Thanks.

I have a question. Say you had a pile of gold accumulated over the past 5 years, and you know you need to sell 70% of it by Sep 2012. Not selling isn't an option - need the cash to buy a farm out in the hills (not in the UK I might add). Would you sell now, or wait until summer?

All good points. I am not really hoping for an overshoot, as I don't intend to ever buy property in the UK again. I'm just an interested spectator. But my gut feeling says that interest rates will have to rise eventually, which will trigger the last step drop (maybe 20%).

But the market always overshoots (that's how you end up with 'very cheap' in 1996).