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About marceau

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  1. Where are you Marceau? Missing your posts!

  2. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    John Doe, I've read what you've written over the last few pages (and few years), and all you seem to offer is misdirection, misrepresentation and confirmation bias - a superficial parroting dogmatist. You're not the only one who's been around a while, but if you can't or won't take the time to understand why this situation is different to the 70s then I see no point in engaging with you further - and I'd recommend that no-one else here attempt it either. A lost cause in every regard. I think you're a panglossian fool of the most dangerous type. Look away if you must - but don't encourage others to do so.
  3. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I've said it before and no doubt I'll say it again before this is over. ALL possible outcomes from this situation result in rapid and dramatic rate rises. It still amazes me that so few understand how fragile, artificial and temporary the current rate environment is. It could last a few more years, but in terms of a 25 year+ mortgage commitment that's the blink of an eye. Taking on hefty debt at the moment is pure folly.
  4. marceau

    Natural Gas 2011/12

    I feel I must draw atttention to UNG. It's not often a chart actually makes me laugh out loud, but this is so bad it's funny: The stuff of nightmares.
  5. I'd need to see FTSE take out the late Dec swing low before I'd consider going short - at the moment it's still showing a series of higher highs and the downside support is close and looks substantial. I'd agree that overall it looks set for a spell in the hurt locker though. Incidentally, I think there's a chance AAPL could have just made a significant top. Good for a limited risk speculative ride down to 400, with the possibility of a much larger fall as a bonus.
  6. marceau

    The Nikkei Thread

    Hmm, last time I seriously looked at Japan is was only cheap in comparison to other indices, not on its own merit. I'd agree with DoucheDore, the Nikkei would have to revisit the lows before I'd see enough value to risk money.
  7. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    They were not lucky, they followed the advice of those who managed the bailouts. They won a rigged game without any comprehension of the deeper risk of playing in a crooked system. When those who manage the bailouts fail, so will your 'lucky' friends. They have lashed themselves to the mast of rotten ship. Normalcy bias. I don't recall anyone on this board killing themselves or living in nuclear shelters, most here appear to run businesses. Despite increasingly an increasingly hostile and barren environment, 2011 was the most profitable year of my life so far, I'm not giving up, I intend to prosper. Do not confuse pragmatism with nihilism.
  8. marceau

    UK House prices: News & Views

    If they think that then they quite clearly still don't understand anything. The slow grind is the least likely outcome. Even in the most flexible indebted economies this option is the equivalent of walking a tightrope over a 1000ft drop with a faulty balancing pole, where the weight at each end of the pole keeps changing randomly and dramatically without warning. Oh, and the tightrope will take 25 years to cross. A generation of low growth is the BEST we can hope for and credit availability still has a long way to fall IMO. How far? Look at the South American credit systems and weep. We're going exactly the same way for almost exactly the same reasons.
  9. marceau


    Terrible news everyone - it looks like Bubb was right: The plentiful hidden gold starts to emerge.
  10. marceau


    There are stories on the web that say giant space lizards run the world, that doesn't mean the subject is credible. Oh, and consipracy loons and death threats go together like coffee and cream, there's a word used to describe these people - unhinged.
  11. Hmm, I don't think so. I think we're slap bang in the middle of the selloff phase and have been since the $1900 peak. For progress along the bubble chart I use people I know as my indicator, based on my knowledge of them and their investment history. Of course, none of them know this, and if they did the indicator would become invalid. The interest of a couple of individuals absolutely nailed the gold top at $1900 a few months back. The same thing happened when we broke out above the $1600 level, I was getting questions about gold investing from my more knowledgable acquaintances and mockery from my less knowlegable ones when the price was dropping, both at the same time. I came up with idea based on the old 'silver sammy' phenomenon that Goldfinger highlighted on the 'GoldIsMoney' forum a few years back. I knew plenty of people, of varying degrees of ability and intelligence, all of whom had invested at different times, and with varying degrees of success in the tech and housing bubbles. So I thought I'd stick the two together, making the assumption that all of my gold investing had been lucky enought to take place in the stealth phase. So far it seems to be working. The number of people required to confirm each phase rises as we move along the chart, and I'm currently waiting on a couple more capitulations before I think this correction is done. When we get to the media awareness phase and the enthusiasm phases it'll be easier to gauge sentiment because, like every other bubble, the evidence will be everywhere. Until that happens it's very hard to make an estimation of sentiment, as there are so few people aware of the asset. I had this problem with my indicator when we broke out above the $1000 level the second time, as no-one was even aware of gold I got no indicators, and initially I distrusted the move because of this. As 50's Quiff has pointed out, newsletter writers and gold forums are a poor test group due to inherent bias. They are obviously good to troll though, as the 'Haterz' seem to pop out with their 20/20 hindsight every time we get even a minor correction. Then seem to disappear after that though, which is a shame because I'd love to get hold of their knowledge in advance.
  12. You lack any appreciable understanding of the subject. I'm actually starting to think you might be a troll, but if you're really interested in understanding geopolitical tensions I suggest you look away from the news altogether and start reading. The history books are a good place to start, maybe try Sino-Soviet relations over the past century. All you have are headlines, propaganda and posturing. Your 'information' sources are no less biased, emotive and propaganda driven than western ones. To gain insight you need to understand the resource pressures, cultures, motives and historical biases of those involved. You won't get that from the news, although I'm sure you'll try to prove me wrong by posting something from Zerohedge.
  13. Iran is a minnow. If you're really desperate for a possible major war hotspot look to South East Asia and the conflicting interests of India, Japan, Russia and China. Add in Pakistan, N Korea, Burma & a whole host of other proxy nations and you've got a semi-plausible scenario for a conventional skirmish (with Russia and China most likely on opposing sides, they are in no way allies). Anything else is just Doomster fanstasy.
  14. I see nothing from any government officials. I see media hyperbole and a statement from a 'General' (actually a professor) in a Chinese Defence College - that is not an official statement! Defence colleges worldwide educate, speculate and hypothesise - that's the point! Do 5 minutes of googling on the guy and you can see what else he's been up to over the past few years. He's a celebrity military commentator with outspoken views, often used by the Chinese government to gauge public reaction to unconventional viewpoints. Of course, to find this out you'd have to get past the websites parroting the same BS you've just been spouting and dig in a few google pages, but I'm sure you can handle it.
  15. I think you've been listening to BS too. All of the recent WW3 noises from the Russians and Chinese have come from completely irrelevant sources. Russia and China will NOT risk involvement in a conflict with Iran, it does not serve their strategic interests to do so. The bottom line is that they have nowhere near the military capability to offer anything but token assistance in conventional terms - and I seriously doubt they'll even offer that. While Iran may provide far more of a challenge than Iraq did in the 90s, it will still fall quickly, and it will certainly fall on its own. A few purchased Russian S300s will make minimal difference.