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Maximilian

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  1. So, what's the latest sentiment on coal? It's down big, and was dropping even before today's break in oil. Just looking for the thoughts and background ideas from others who have thought it through. My thoughts: LONG-TERM- * Tailwind - Global demand and supply fundamentals. Will Europe continue to import from us? Who else? * Headwind is the carbon issue; will it be penalized? will carbon sequestering be mandatory and thus a massive expense to those who use coal.....to the point of decreasing demand? * Wildcard- Coal to Liquid technology seems like it could potentially, maybe, possibly have a place as a supplement; but, I'm just not sure yet. This isn't a natural gas thread; but, I feel it plays into the conversation. Natural Gas is not even close to being as plentiful as coal, but it's cleaner. Nat Gas is also a substitute for coal, in many situations. Natural gas is also the largest input cost of most fertilizers, especially nitrogen based. If you believe the story of unlimited increases in agricultural demand, you must believe in fert. and thus natural gas. I mean, why not just go back to the denominator? However, Nat Gas is down like 10% today. I know, it's just one day; so, why even watch. However, 10%....? That's pretty steep. I am long BTU and CHK today. Thoughts on Coal's future? Thoughts on Nat Gas and it's place as substitute for coal?
  2. Agreed; but, humans will do what humans want to do, until it is more PAINFUL to keep doing it rather than changing. It's that simple. Humans all also get to vote (in one form or another). Therefore, policy makers will also tend to structure things in a manner consistent with what the masses want. It used to be that only American had the audacity to own cars and drive to the store when they need a packet of sugar. Now, everyone wants to be like us. Converting something into energy in order to do work (drive a car) will continue to be the key. The battery (fossil fuel) that was charged by the sun over 200m years is being depleted. The low hanging fruit is running out. Next is the harder to reach stuff. Eventually, humans will have to find a way of "eating".
  3. Great piece. Thanks. I'll give it a good read when Uncle Ben is done talking.
  4. Thanks. Good perspective. It's true that I usually attempt to utilitize things, even pm. My problem is, at the end of the day, I look for utility. Scarcity and durability does little for ME, without UTILITY. I'm trying to come up with another item that is both scarce and durable....but not considered valuable by society. If I lose my job, can I eat pm? Can I run my car on pm? Can I cure an illness with pm? Of course, fiat can only do these things because they are generally accepted as repayment of debt. PM is not. Okay, having said all that, reality is what it is. The world tends to value pms, that's the bottom line. I understand your argument, for sure. I do agree. PM can't be expanded/inflated like currencies can; and so, at the end of the day, I'd rather have it than fiat. By the way, I'm long of silver and enjoying the movements yesterday and today. Let's see what Ben is saying....
  5. Exactly. It borders on silly. People think they are going green because they plug in their car. 51% of power generation is coal. Less than 1% is solar and wind COMBINED. Plug in the car and you're likely burning coal somewhere else. The Tesla roadster, assuming the new high-efficiency (58%) power generating plants, can get up to 65 MPG (gasoline equivalent). Assuming the older style plants, it's only 35 mpg. That's admittedly pretty good, but the same as a Prius. I really wonder what the battery range, and thus energy used per mile, is in the real world? I have heard that if you try one of those 4 second 0-60 runs, the battery is about 10% drained right there. I haven't confirmed this. It should be a simple calculation considering efficiency at full throttle and work done; and taking into consideration the min and max charge levels for the battery. Considering how much energy is currently used each day to run our vehicles (37 TRILLION BTUs every day!!); if the plan is to really switch from burning fuel on-site (internal combustion) to using a battery, with energy created centrally, then the electrical demand from the grid will be astronomical. If this is to be our future, then Warren Buffet was absolutely correct to start buying railroads and rail equipment. The demand for coal will continue to SKYROCKET. Nat. gas will also, but only as long as prices stay low enough. If they get too high, we switch right back to coal.
  6. I am just not on board with silver (or gold for that matter). Silver has an actual use, unlike gold; but, real useful demand just isn't growing much. Industrial use is growing, but nothing like one would expect with ChIndia and others coming on line. The photographic demand is on it's way to zero. I just don't know. The real demand is being driven by the ETFs. Is that "real" demand? I guess that depends on the way you look at it. If the world decides (or is convinced) that silver is in short supply and that global demand is "far outstripping supply" (keep hearing that but can't find the fundies to support the statement) I guess it will be a self fulfilling prophecy. This seems to be the case so far, at least the run from $12-$15. In that case, maybe traders can whip silver into a lather up to $_____? Don't get me wrong, I'll jump on that bandwagon for profit. Can anyone provide a clear picture of silver demand vs. production, excluding net implied investment?? Again, I just don't see it. The same goes for gold really. If the population of India ever realizes that gold jewelry is....uh, shall we say very 1980..... and also not the ideal method of storing one's wealth.....then what is the demand, and thus value of/for gold?? I'm thinking $500 maximum, but that's just where I am at the moment. Maybe I can be educated further on the subject.
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