So, what's the latest sentiment on coal? It's down big, and was dropping even before today's break in oil. Just looking for the thoughts and background ideas from others who have thought it through.
My thoughts: LONG-TERM-
* Tailwind - Global demand and supply fundamentals. Will Europe continue to import from us? Who else?
* Headwind is the carbon issue; will it be penalized? will carbon sequestering be mandatory and thus a massive expense to those
who use coal.....to the point of decreasing demand?
* Wildcard- Coal to Liquid technology seems like it could potentially, maybe, possibly have a place as a supplement; but, I'm just not
sure yet.
This isn't a natural gas thread; but, I feel it plays into the conversation. Natural Gas is not even close to being as plentiful as coal, but it's cleaner. Nat Gas is also a substitute for coal, in many situations. Natural gas is also the largest input cost of most fertilizers, especially nitrogen based. If you believe the story of unlimited increases in agricultural demand, you must believe in fert. and thus natural gas. I mean, why not just go back to the denominator? However, Nat Gas is down like 10% today. I know, it's just one day; so, why even watch. However, 10%....? That's pretty steep.
I am long BTU and CHK today. Thoughts on Coal's future? Thoughts on Nat Gas and it's place as substitute for coal?