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Plastic Elastic

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  1. Chris Martenson on FSO Suffice to say he's not particularly optimistic on Japan.
  2. Be careful with those. I think they are based on futures contracts that are being rolled over into new ones each month. Due to the structure of the forward curve this means you suffer a loss each time a contract is rolled into a new one. For most commodities, the future price of a commodity is higher than its spot price - this is called contango (see more on the link below). What this means in practise is that any commodity ETF will not mirror the price of the underlying commodity. Contango vs backwardation
  3. Plastic Elastic

    Breaking news from the House of Lords

    You wait until I "fix the problem".
  4. Plastic Elastic

    GEI Constantly reloading in firefox

    Thanks for that. I finally blocked hxxxx//usera.imagecave.com from within Opera as this is what I mostly use.
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    Why Germany does not want to throw out a single PIIG

    The more I think about this the less I understand it. I have a rather simple (and perhaps stupid) question: Assuming the Euro breaks down tomorrow, all national CBs assume sovereignty again and the Bundesbank ends up with unpaid debt of €500bn - can't they just print the money?? I would have thought the goods that were exchanged were paid for, i.e. the banks and companies involved have received the money etc. How can an institution that's in charge of the printing presses run out of money?
  6. Plastic Elastic

    Why Germany does not want to throw out a single PIIG

    I heard Bernd-Thomas Ramb talk about this last year as well. I don't like Sinn but he is probably onto something there. Things will look pretty dire if that debt gets defaulted upon. What I don't get is whether this will be deflationary or inflationary.
  7. Article (in German) Interesting charts in the linked article. Japan still has a positive real interest rate (10y bonds). There is also some correlation between the Nikkei and Dollar/Yen, meaning if the yen weakens there should be a positive impact on Japanese stocks. That's something quite a few people have been saying for a while. However, when inflation picks up and real interest rates become negative this relationship tends to break down, as it did, for example, in June 2008. Japanese stocks are undervalued, and have been so for years. At the moment I think this may be a sweet spot for investing but perhaps one that may not last long!
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    Very good point well made.
  9. Plastic Elastic

    Is Occupy Right?

    An excellent speech I think! Full of gems. Many thanks for posting it!
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    I'm sure with that sort of predictive powers you'll be more than welcome on the Fringe Forum
  11. Plastic Elastic

    Is Occupy Right?

    I'm getting the following numbers: $1000 to start with grow to $1200 after 1st year. Then 2% of the total are taken out ($24) and 20% of the gains ($40), leaving the investor with $1136, a growth rate of 13.6%. The year after the same thing happens (i.e. growth rate 13.6%) and so on. Not bad, but the two developments (13.6% and 20%) add up substantially over the years: 1) B = A x q^n; with A = $1000, q = 1.136 and n = 47 B = $400,665 2) B = A x q^n; with A = $1000, q = 1.2 and n = 47 B = $5.26M Massive difference!! Edit: I suppose the result depends also on the sequence of calculation, i.e. when you take out the profit.
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    Fresh water : Essential for a Sanctuary

    Spiegel mentions that they managed to "remove 36% losses" but it's not clear what they mean by that number, i.e. go from 36% losses to 0%, reduce an unknown quantity of losses by 36%, or reduce losses from for example 51% to 15% (or from 90% to 54% etc)...
  13. Plastic Elastic

    Fresh water : Essential for a Sanctuary

    As far as I remember the losses of fresh water due to broken pipes in the ground also make up something like 20% in some regions. I read about this a few years ago, so I don't remember it clearly. Severn Trent region perhaps?
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    Gold, Euros and deflation

    I now think the control of money supply and especially credit growth is the most critical issue when it comes to the stability of a currency and a monetary system. I don't have an answer as to what would be best. The appeal of a gold standard for me clearly lies in the fact that it can't be debased easily - on the other hand, history seems to show that this is exactly what has taken place many a times! Only last year I listened to a talk at Edelmetallmesse Munich, and the data one speaker (Thorsten Proettel) presented I found quite sobering. I'm just going through my notes of the talk: highly fluctuating rates of inflation (i.e. price changes of +/- 15% annually) in Europe in the 19th century, one state in crisis or defaulting every 13 months after 1871 (introduction of gold standard in Germany), also very difficult to implement it unilaterally due to monetary influx from outside, risk of massive currency appreciation etc. If implemented on a larger scale it might work, as currency and trade imbalances should even themselves out but (as I said) I think the most critical issue is monetary discipline and the required checks and balances to maintain it!
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    Greece to leave Euro... Eventually

    I totally agree! Democracy (at least in the West) is showing distinct signs of exhaustion and complacency: the last big war and threatening dictatorships are more than sixty years away, and it seems memory is fading fast.