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Ret45

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About Ret45

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    Tri-Centurion
  1. Hi. No am trading AGQ, a leveraged silver ETF instead. A trade which is doing very well so far. I have a thread on that in the trading forum.

  2. Hi Romans, are you still trading VIX. It seems to me that it is staring to look attractive again- any views?

  3. I've been holding my breath - did Wilcock survive the threat from the evil overlords or did he in fact just forget to take his meds for a couple of days and not realise the threat was actually an overdue reminder from the library to return the book of maklumat?
  4. Even so. Being so casual about anti-semetism is not cool. I hope other GEI members wll check out the stuff being posted here and let Bubb know that it's not ok.
  5. I looked at his website, avaresearch.com. It promotes the latest "educational" video from former ku klux clan leader David Duke, complete with pictures of Soros, Geithner etc with The star of David plastered on their foreheads. I don't think this sort of vile fascist crap is type of thing most GEI members want to see on GEI.
  6. Ret45

    Eurozone has "10 days at the most"

    That's the thing about very low interest rates during a period of global growth, everyone thinks they are on a winner. Greenspan was hailed as a genius for years for also pursuing the low interest rate, high growth policy. I would love to think that Germany would have the cojones to let the thing fall now. Dealing with the debt we have now by creating even more debt will just create a bigger problem in the future. But do politicians ever think beyond the next election? As banks start crashing like dominos, I think they will do what politicians have always done and only focus on the short term. When you strip it down it comes down to this~ can the PIIGS pay back their debt? The answer is, not based on current growth projections. So only two things can happen - printing or defaulting. Once you start printing there can be no going back until we have hyperinflation. Defaulting will result in the break up of the eurozone, and contagion will spread to the core. Which we will end up with is anybody's guess. Gold is great hedge against printing, not so sure how to hedge against the default scenario - dollars?
  7. Ret45

    Eurozone has "10 days at the most"

    GF and Bubb, you are both wrong. Ireland, Portugal and other PIIGS were running a budget surplus until 2008. The problem is the private sector in these countries got drunk on cheap credit and built up massive debt, which then threatened the financial stability of these countries and was nationalised by Governments. why was the credit so cheap? ah yes, we had to keep the ECB rate ultra low to assist a sluggish german economy post reunification. Never mind the fact that ireland's growth was hitting 10 per cent and desperately needed higher rates to rein in inflation. And where did all the credit come from? Germany and France of course, countries which are now facing a massive loss on their forays into the Irish and Spanish property bubbles and this in turn threatens the financial stability of the german and French banking system. Let's not pretend that the german/French domination f the ECB over the past 10 years has not had a big influence on everything that is unfolding in the eurozone.
  8. Ret45

    The Commute will keep them poor

    And the sheer smug arrogance of others is nauseatng! You seem to think that everyone who commutes does so by choice, and not because of economic necessity, family ties or just wanting their kids to grow up in a good neighbourhood or go to a good school. Perhaps you blame them for being stupid enough to have kids in the first place, given the high ecomomic cost of raising them (just think how much of their mortgage they could pay off if they didn't have to pay for food, clothes and school fees for those pesky brats!). Or perhaps you blame them for being so stupid that they have to take a salary paying job instead of being a whizz trader who can live off their investment income. How terrible it must be to live in a world where everyone is stupid but you! btw I bet the airmiles you rack up every year puts the carbon footprint of the 'average' American commuter in the shade.
  9. You may be wrong about Ireland. Property prices have fallen by more than 50%. Rents have stabilised and yields of 9% and more are now possible. Tax conditions for landlords are favourable - you can deduct 75% of the interest of an investmnt mortgage against your tax bill as well as a range of other deductions. The house price drop may have been overdone because of the lack of credit available. For example you can buy this apartment for about EUR 260,000. It's in the Dublin city centre docklands area and from the balcony shots you can see the European HQs of Google and Facebook and within a five minute stroll are the offices of Amazon, Ebay, Microsoft and Paypal. The Irish economy has been hit by the property bubble but the private sector is stronger than people think.
  10. didn't Pinetree's CEO just pay himself USD 34m! he gets 10 of all new growth in the company's capital - I think that means that if you buy shares in the company you pay a 10% tax to the CEO. A pity, beacuse it seems like a good company otherwise...
  11. Ret45

    GOLD

    Just been looking at Bloomberg - DOW down 180 pips, oil down 4 USD. Gold was fluctuating but now firmly up. I think this is a pattern we are going to see into the summer. load up on gold now!
  12. Ret45

    GOLD

    I agree. Your posts have great conviction. I hope your plays on oil work out great for you.
  13. Guilty!(except for the silver bit) but i hope the comments were taken in the 'friendly feral' spirit they were intended I still think you are wrong to believe that UK house prices can levitate above everything that's happening in the real economy. i don't follow the property market in the UK but I can tell you that if the average house costs more than 5 or 6 times the average industrial wage it is overpriced. And if a house costs more than 16 times the annual rental income it can generate then it is overpriced. Everything else is just noise.
  14. Do you think you could earn a living by trading, using your system. How much capital would you need to start with?
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