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About zoomraker

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  1. zoomraker

    UK House prices: News & Views

    it seems he's predicting a mid cycle recession in 2019 but house prices to continue to rise until 2026? Economists Explain Why Our Economy Crashes Every 18 Years so if i wanted to profit from the 2019 midcycle recession what would be the positions to take, given the government and financial institutions seem determined to prevent true price discovery whatever the cost to the peons go long on the ftse?
  2. zoomraker

    UK House prices: News & Views

    i guess we had some kind of muted bottom around 2009 http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=london&all=1 so that would only put us 7 years into Freds 18 year cycle.
  3. zoomraker

    UK House prices: News & Views

    so Fred Harrison predicting boom in USA and bust in UK over next two years, wouldn't that be unusual, I thought the two economies were very closely correlated?
  4. zoomraker

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Questions I have about investing in apartments are: How you protect yourself from predatory service charge increases? Does the time limited nature of the lease erode the value of your capital?
  5. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-09/googles-self-driving-minivans-arrive-month Google Self Driving MiniVans
  6. zoomraker

    Canalside developments in the UK

    I know the walk along the canal at Uxbridge it is very pleasant especially when it opens up at Denham Marina. Questions I have about investing in apartments are: How you protect yourself from predatory service charges? Does the time limited nature of the lease erode the value of your capital?
  7. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-07/rise-machines-millions-american-jobs-will-be-wiped-out-next-five-years
  8. more like this sort of thing, but knowledge based work will come under threat as well, the computer that beat a grandmaster at Go was very significant when engineers have taken on experts at chess the engineers have had to know about chess strategy. the computer that won at Go was only programmed to understand the rules of Go and then trained on millions of historical games from online data, it's ability was then further refined by playing itself millions of times. the program effectively taught itself, it learnt as opposed to being programmed computers are going to be able to achieve grandmaster status at many occupations from medicine to law - this could bring about massive structural changes in the global economy as significant as the move from an industrial economy to a service economy in the industrialised countries. how can private individuals profit from this? what opportunities does it bring? what asset classes should we avoid?
  9. stop straw manning me with flying cars and trips to mars Car companies are investing heavily in developing autonomous driving systems Driverless HGVs exist and are being tested Driverless cars exist and are being tested Driverless HGVs will be rolled out first, initially just between freight depots on motorways which is the simplest use case and the easiest one to develop infrastructure for. The number of jobs that it is cheaper to buy a robot to do than pay and manage a human for increases every year, there are now robots that can make a hamburger. computers are at the point where they can be trained on historical data as opposed to explicitly programmed - this brings under threat many decision making jobs where there is a human in the loop I'm not sure whether you are arguing that it won't be economically viable to replace many human workers with machines or that politicians will be able to stop it. History suggests you are wrong on both counts. I guess you are not interested in exploring how to exploit these changes?
  10. your only argument seems to be "politicians won't let it happen" give me one example from history where politicians have held back technology for more than a few years
  11. It can't be stopped, technology and efficiency always triumph in the end. We are already seeing it with services like Uber. Soon your taxi will be driven by computer and cost 20% of the current price - you think politicians can stand in the way of that, would be the first time in history. Maybe there will be politicians who bring in laws mandating minimum numbers of human employees but those economies will be out competed. Lets try and be constructive and ask, how do we profit.
  12. The Great Replacement It is my belief that over the next 10 to 20 years we will see up to 80% of jobs disappear. They will be taken by robots and computers. Machine learning will change everything. Some background reading here: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2016/03/game-on-the-end-of-the-old-economic-system-is-in-sight.html http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-16/two-thirds-workers-developing-nations-be-replaced-robots-report-warns So how do we thrive in the new age, who do companies sell their products to if all the workers have been replaced by robots. How does this effect Buy to let? Say you are looking at buying in a thriving industrial town with lots of factories and high demand for accommodation, what happens in ten years time when many of those workers have been replaced by robots?
  13. zoomraker

    UK House prices: News & Views

    thank you, I will study
  14. are we finally at the inflection point? still around 1.34 on Betfair