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About zoomraker

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  1. zoomraker

    STOCKS: Maybe it is different this time?

    if I'd bought the dip since 2009 I could probably have retired by now
  2. zoomraker

    STOCKS: Maybe it is different this time?

    so instead of trying to second guess them waiting for asset prices to fall why not bet with them?
  3. zoomraker

    STOCKS: Maybe it is different this time?

    cheers drbubb, I'm well, hope you are the same. Still looking for a way forward.
  4. STOCKS: Maybe it is different this time? Looking at the S&P500 it seems there was an acceleration in the rate of growth around 1983. Reading the bears the S&P is due to crash 50% every week because "stock markets always correct etc" However I think there could be genuine reasons it really is different this time. 1. low interest rates forever - politicians would rather see currency destroyed than repricing of assets in which they and the system are heavily invested. 2. demographic change - there is essentially a commitment in all western nations among the political class to continue to bring in cheap workers. 3. importation of consumers - every extra person is more profit because it is an extra person who needs housing, feeding, clothing etc 4. automation - the cost of manufacturing goods will approach zero after raw materials - this will lead to a massive growth in profitability for corporations. 5. efficiencies generated by big data (still thinking about this) 6. coming transportation efficiencies - networked vehicles talking to each other with autopilot will probably squeeze another 30 to 50% out of current transport infrastructure. Electric vehicles will also become much cheaper to manufacture and maintain than IC vehicles. Opportunity for almost entirely modular vehicle design using off the shelf parts shared between manufacturers. Massive economies of scale possible.
  5. zoomraker

    UK House prices: News & Views

    it seems he's predicting a mid cycle recession in 2019 but house prices to continue to rise until 2026? Economists Explain Why Our Economy Crashes Every 18 Years so if i wanted to profit from the 2019 midcycle recession what would be the positions to take, given the government and financial institutions seem determined to prevent true price discovery whatever the cost to the peons go long on the ftse?
  6. zoomraker

    UK House prices: News & Views

    i guess we had some kind of muted bottom around 2009 http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=london&all=1 so that would only put us 7 years into Freds 18 year cycle.
  7. zoomraker

    UK House prices: News & Views

    so Fred Harrison predicting boom in USA and bust in UK over next two years, wouldn't that be unusual, I thought the two economies were very closely correlated?
  8. zoomraker

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Questions I have about investing in apartments are: How you protect yourself from predatory service charge increases? Does the time limited nature of the lease erode the value of your capital?
  9. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-09/googles-self-driving-minivans-arrive-month Google Self Driving MiniVans
  10. zoomraker

    Canalside developments in the UK

    I know the walk along the canal at Uxbridge it is very pleasant especially when it opens up at Denham Marina. Questions I have about investing in apartments are: How you protect yourself from predatory service charges? Does the time limited nature of the lease erode the value of your capital?
  11. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-07/rise-machines-millions-american-jobs-will-be-wiped-out-next-five-years
  12. more like this sort of thing, but knowledge based work will come under threat as well, the computer that beat a grandmaster at Go was very significant when engineers have taken on experts at chess the engineers have had to know about chess strategy. the computer that won at Go was only programmed to understand the rules of Go and then trained on millions of historical games from online data, it's ability was then further refined by playing itself millions of times. the program effectively taught itself, it learnt as opposed to being programmed computers are going to be able to achieve grandmaster status at many occupations from medicine to law - this could bring about massive structural changes in the global economy as significant as the move from an industrial economy to a service economy in the industrialised countries. how can private individuals profit from this? what opportunities does it bring? what asset classes should we avoid?
  13. stop straw manning me with flying cars and trips to mars Car companies are investing heavily in developing autonomous driving systems Driverless HGVs exist and are being tested Driverless cars exist and are being tested Driverless HGVs will be rolled out first, initially just between freight depots on motorways which is the simplest use case and the easiest one to develop infrastructure for. The number of jobs that it is cheaper to buy a robot to do than pay and manage a human for increases every year, there are now robots that can make a hamburger. computers are at the point where they can be trained on historical data as opposed to explicitly programmed - this brings under threat many decision making jobs where there is a human in the loop I'm not sure whether you are arguing that it won't be economically viable to replace many human workers with machines or that politicians will be able to stop it. History suggests you are wrong on both counts. I guess you are not interested in exploring how to exploit these changes?
  14. your only argument seems to be "politicians won't let it happen" give me one example from history where politicians have held back technology for more than a few years
  15. It can't be stopped, technology and efficiency always triumph in the end. We are already seeing it with services like Uber. Soon your taxi will be driven by computer and cost 20% of the current price - you think politicians can stand in the way of that, would be the first time in history. Maybe there will be politicians who bring in laws mandating minimum numbers of human employees but those economies will be out competed. Lets try and be constructive and ask, how do we profit.