Bubble Pricker

I wouldn't bother with options. They are alos not very liquid. Anyway, Dec 2012 oil now at $130. I would like to pat myself on the back and say this thread was the call of the decade. Up $70 since my call, which is $70,000 on one contract.

I am not even bothering to verify or falsify the facts in this "article". The way it is written clearly points to a newsletter selling scam. I could not resist researching anyway. Of course, it is an old story, reheated: http://www.energybulletin.net/11707.html

Baron, here's my 2p: Clearly visible colour artifacts in both "planets" - nasty The logo looks far too much like outer space - get rid of one planet, add some earth contours on the planet beneath Global Ede Investors and change the planet under Green Energy Investors to a sun. Maybe you can even morph the background colour into green towards the right hand side. I would try to make to make the whole "incorporating Green Energy Investors" part smaller. It is too prominent I also need a logo designed for Berlin Property Investments. Are you interested. You will be paid for your work product. But I need professional vector graphics, not the low-res artifacty stuff on here.

This asking for investment on the website has all sorts of legal connotations. The way it stands, it certainly breaks the law in almost every country in the civilised world. I once again would recommend you to ask for donations to fund your research, rather than "investment".

There is no riskm from the - totally hypothetical - scenario described in the article as a return to long-term fixed contracts. It does not matter what happens in the future to future contract or whether they will be traded any more or not. Existing contracts are valid and binding, and the NYMEX exchnage is liable for its performance. Only if NYMEX goes out of business might the performance of the contract be in question.

my natgas position is my best portfolio performer by a large margin, making up for all the losses elsewhere. The May 07 contract is trading at $7.6. My May 2011 still has backwardation, but I expect that to converge to the near month price as we get closer to the date.

Your first big loser today? Hope you are working stops.

Just be careful before you quit your job, because one can easily have a winning streak, and it seems like you have sussed it all out, and then you start having a losing streak. Also, what I have heard from many traders is that if you ahve a certain style of trading, it typically works for a while, and then it stops working and you start making losses. I think you need a consistent sustainable record over several years of making consistent profits from spread betting, before you should consider quitting your day job.

The 15% Candian withholding tax applies to all non-Candian residents, so you should assume all income is paid less that 15% tax. If you do not hold within a special tax wrapper in Ireland, the income will be subject to normal Irish income tax, if you are a resident of Ireland. You MAY be able to deduct the 15% already paid in Candian tax from your Irish tax bill. However, this will depend on the precise provisions in the Irish/Canadian double taxation Treaty, if such a treaty exists.

eventually, yes, but this is a long way away. Major oil companies will continue to make increasing profits as the oil price goes up, although their profit growth will be limited by the rising cost of extraction. So a pure bet on oil prices will probably yield more. But then again, it is less risky to just buy oil shares like BP, receive the dividends every year.

I hold True Energy also. I paid slightly more at $7. I think this is an incredible bargain. Rogers Says Oil Will Rise to $100 After `Correction'

Fine, let oil go to $100 and tar sand extration becomes viable. Meanwhile, I will collect my 38,000 profit.

Not nessecarily. OPEX are not very good at actually implementing production cuts. They talk a lot about them, but when it actually comes to cutting production, they tend to take a "not in my back yard" attitude, i.e. everybody wants the others to make the cuts.

Close last Friday was $60.94 on the Dec 2012 crude. I still believe this is a good opportunity. Of course, if there is another commodity sell-off, as Marc Faber predicts, the price could drop another $10 or so, who knows. I think buying this contract has tremendous risk-reward: Oil cannot drop to zero, but let's assume worst case scenario it drops back to $12 where it once was (however unlikely that may be) and stays there until 2012. So at the current price of say $61, your maximum, extreme worst case scenario, loss on this trade is $49,000. A more realistic price that oild could drop back to by 2012 is $30. So your maximum loss is about $30,000. I believe dear Dr. you have risked more than that on far more speculative positions. On the other extreme, if the Saudi Oil fields have a dramatic production drop over the next five years (because they have been overstating their reserves all along), all-out war breaks out in the Middle East, South America gets taken over by communist governments, and Russia descends into a mob-ruled society, then the oil price could go anywhere. More realistically, an oil price of $150 by 2012 does not seem that unrealistic, which would be a $89,000 profit.

Feb 07 crude has fallen by nearly $10 since Dec. 06. The Dec 2012 contract has hardly moved. The gap between the near term contract and the longest out contract has widened to $8. The market clearly does not believe that this drop is anything other than short term.