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Bubble Pricker

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About Bubble Pricker

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    Millennium man
  1. I went to the site today. Photos below. I am also gong to upload a walk-around video to YouTube. Impressions: The area is currently not that great. Mostly council housing and New Festival Quarter is surrounded by council estates. Youths loitering in the streets and in Bartlet Park. The eastern aspect of the development is very close to the street. The street is not a main thoroughfare but reasonably busy (a car every 10 seconds or so on a Sunday afternoon - probably much busier during weekdays). Planes taking off from London City directly overhead. The balconies will suffer use degradation from this, and it may be difficult to leave the windows open for extended periods. This is the problem generally with flats: they do not tend to have opposite aspects. With a house, you usually have a quiet side at the back at least. From the computer generated imagery of Bellway Homes, it seems possible that the development might significantly improve the overall area, especially make the spaces appear more open. At the moment everything looks narrow and constraint with the fence around the building site, but once this is gone, it seems the development would be quite open and inviting. The pricing of the flats seems ok and reasonable. Terraced houses directly opposite the site have sold for between £300,000-£350,000. See http://www.nethousep...=E14&incode=6EP Pictures taken today:
  2. Bubble Pricker

    World Collapse Imminent ? / Email query

    We both made almost exactly the same point independently. Thanks. It is one of the oldest fallacies of mankind to attribute an outcome to a perceived cause based on mere coincidence withou any proof of statistically significant correlation.
  3. Bubble Pricker

    World Collapse Imminent ? / Email query

    Well, that's a bit premature. And not the full picture. I still have fat profits from the period Jan-April. I only started posting my diary in June. As regards your trading diary, you do not give the full picture. Your statements are usually vague and you only boast your profits but you do not say how much you lost on trades where you were wrong. I recall dozens of occasions since since this website started, when you stated you had bought puts because you believed the market was putting in a top and the market subsequently rose. You surely would have made losses on those trades, but I never see you admit it. Making losses is normal in trading. Every trader gives some back. If a trader's overall winnings are greater than what he give back, he is a sustainably successful long term trader. Your overall equity curve may have gone up over the years, as you say. Nobody is questioning that. But it seems to me that there is no proof that this is down to any particular method, be it Larry, Bradley turns or anything else. I have been following this board since its inception, and you have frequently changed your publicised methods and the "gurus" whose opinion you take into consideration. Your long term success could be down to a number of factors, including luck, being right on the fundamentals longer term, having a sixth sense of market turns, being able to see through crowd sentiment, or simply being a disciplined money manager. As regards the latter, it has been shown that one can sustainably make money (albeit not much) by entering trades at the toss of a coin, as long as a tight money management system is followed. There is no proof in my opinion that the methods of Bradley, Larry, Tim O'Brien etc. have any statistically significant predictive power. Indeed, the various methods you use (or you believe you are using) all seem to focus on entry points, sometimes down to specific days. However, entry points play only a minor part in overall trading success. Money management, and when to exit are far more important. Your long term trading success (assuming it is not down to a long streak of luck, which is unlikely because it would have probably caught up with you by now as you say) may very well be down to you being very good on the latter two aspects and all the Bradley turns etc. just appear to be causal for your success, when in fact they may be irrelevant. Just remember coincidence does not prove causality.
  4. Bubble Pricker

    World Collapse Imminent ? / Email query

    For the record, 8th of July came and went without any noticable event. I guess this topic can now be closed. Until the next doom monger makes the next prediction that will not come to pass either.
  5. Why does a fall in the number of transactions point to a fall in prices? Could you please elaborate on the correlation between the two? The fate of the US housing market is yesteryear. The toxic assets have been bought by the FED, Lehmans have gone bust. It's over - done with. Whether or not US house prices will fall further or not is going to be irrelevant to the recovery.
  6. Bubble Pricker

    World Collapse Imminent ? / Email query

    Or did he? The problem with your analysis is that you only look at those instances when his predictions were right. This is of course only part of facts, and in order to to conduct a full analysis of the predictive powers of his method, i.e. whether it is better then random, one would need to look at ALL his predictions and analyse whether there is any statistically significant divergence from random. How many times other than in Oct 2008 and April 2010 did Larry say the market was at a top and then it wasn't? You cannot judge a market time only by his successful predictions. I have never seen any such analysis done on any of the prominent market timers. All that is ever said is "he correctly predicted this or that", but it is never analysed how many wrong predictions he made.
  7. Bubble Pricker

    World Collapse Imminent ? / Email query

    Well, 8th of July is here and the world is still spinning as far as I can see, and the financial markets have not yet gone into meltdown. Well, there are still almost 24 hours left in US timezone terms, so the meltdown could still come. I see the goalposts are already being moved, now it is the 13th July, which will of course also pass without event. Bubb, do you have any evidence of a statistically significant correlation between so called Bradley Turns and the level of any given market (say the S&P 500). Please note "statistically significant". This is a scientific term with a defined meaning and is used throughout science to distinguish between perceived and real correlations. (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistically_significant).
  8. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    Update: I have slightly amended the method of calculating realised profits/losses. Rather than using FIFO, I will calculate the realised profit/loss from the last average price. The average price for any remaining open positions will then just be carried forward rather than adjusted. This is less complicated and makes the trading sequence easier to read. It does not change the end result. 07 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1802.00 - Open exposure: long 2 at average 1802.00 10 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1826.50 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1814.25 14 June 2010: Sold 3 June10 at 1847.75 to roll - Realised Profit 98.5 points (2 points deducted for cost) 14 June 2010: Bought 3 Sep10 at 1846.50 to roll 15 June 2010: Sold 1 June10 at 1882.50 - Realised Profit: 66.25 points (2 points deducted for cost) 15 June 2010: Running total realised profit/loss: +164.75 points 15 June 2010: Open exposure: long 3 Sep10 at average 1846.50 17 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1905.00 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1861.125 24 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1853.00 - Open exposure: long 5 at average 1859.50 24 June 2010: Sold 3 Sep10 at 1846.50 - Realised Loss: -41 points (2 points deducted for costs) 24 June 2010: Running total realised profit/loss: +123.75 points 24 June 2010: Open exposure: long 2 Sep10 at average 1859.50 29 June 2010: Sold 2 Sep10 at 1777.00 - Realised Loss: -167 points (2 points deducted for costs) 29 June 2010: Running total realised profit/loss: -43.25 points 29 June 2010: Open exposure: nil 06 July 2010: Sold 1 Sep10 at 1734.25 - Open exposure: short 1 at average 1734.25 07 July 2010: Sold 2 Sep10 at 1731.50 - Open exposure: short 3 at average 1732.42 Running total realised profit/loss: -43.25 points I got caught out on 29th June with 2 remaining long positions when the market went into a swift downturn. The remaining 2 long positions were stopped to limit losses. Unfortunately this has resulted in giving away all previous profits in June from the upswing, and actually moving into overall realised loss territory. This happenes to traders and one needs to put these things behind and move on. I am now short with three contracts from an average of 1732.416666666.
  9. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    You have not made a profit each time. You were bearish throughout February and March and you publicly declared that you had bought puts. What happened to those? Did you sell them at a loss? Did they expire worthless? Why don't you post all your trades, losers and winners, like I do, and then we can see.
  10. Bubble Pricker

    World Collapse Imminent ? / Email query

    I will update my trading diary shortly. Not long any more since the NASDAQ-100 dropped through 1800.
  11. Bubble Pricker

    World Collapse Imminent ? / Email query

    8th July will come and go and nothing will happen. The proponents of ridiculous predictions like these will then latch onto any event happening around the date in question and will claim they forecast it.
  12. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    23 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1853 - Open exposure: long 5 at average 1859.5 Running total realised profit/loss: +164.75 points
  13. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    Have you taken into account all the other times since January 2010 when you bought puts and the market just kept going up? It's easy to make a single profit and boast about it. All I can see from your trading blog is that you almost constantly announce that a "turn" is around the corner, and most of the tome it does not come and the market just continues its previous direction.
  14. Bubble Pricker

    Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

    I'm trading real money, but not necessarily in the size of the fictional portfolio here.
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