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nbarter

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About nbarter

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  1. I have not found any stories on it being leaked. In fact this seems to be a typical flavour of news stories on this at the moment: About 90 mins to go. If it is favourable to the markets then maybe we will get a quick rise followed tomorrow by falls on the back of another disappointing EU summit. Otherwise the falls may continue and just accelerate.
  2. Keep your ears open in about 90 mins, we could get the Obamacare ruling, which has the potential to move markets.
  3. I was about three months early with my great Dow highs of summer 2007 thread and my premature affliction seems to have struck again with this thread. The SPX carried on rising until the 2nd April, with it and the dow going on to make new post 2009 highs, whereas most world markets made their most recent highs back in the spring/summer of 2011. We have had 5 waves down from the April high (1422.38) to the 4th June low at 1266.74, followed by a bounce that retraced an almost perfect fibbo 62% of the falls (61.8% retracement is 1363 and the high of the 19th June was 1363.46). Thus we may already have started the next leg down, although the bounce lasted less than 3 weeks and so seems a bit short compared to the 2 month leg down from the April high. Plus, whilst the US markets have retraced 62%, most world markets have bounced by far less. Irrespective of whether we go straight down from here (closed at 1335 Friday) or the bounce lasts a little longer, we should get a feel soon enough if my call for this to be a big leg down to below the March 2009 lows is working out as the remainder of this year should be a complete horror show, similar to 2008. This is because if my count is right we should be starting a 3rd wave down in many markets which is usually the strongest wave. I closed my shorts at the beginning of June and then started reshorting last week (Dow, FTSE, silver and the Can dollar vs US dollar). I am looking for weakness across the board in stocks and commodities and for the US dollar and US bonds to rally strongly. I need a good run now after the poor run i had early this year.
  4. Maybe Greece will make the decision for them. Just posted this on my euro to hell in a handbasket thread: So what next for Greece? I attended a conference on the lessons from the Latin American defaults in London last month and one of the points made by one of the speakers there was: If a new government is elected shortly that decides it does not like what its current leaders have signed up to, it may just decide to strategically default, that is, simply announce it does not agree with what its previous leaders imposed on the country and stop servicing its debt despite in theory still being able to. Strategic defaults have been avoided in the past and instead defaults have occurred when the country simply had no other choice (probably for the simple reason that heads of government usually get kicked out of office in the aftermath of a default), until Ecuador in 2008 when a new government said the debt of the previous government was illegitimate. Now there is a precedent that others may decide to follow.
  5. nbarter

    The Euro, to Hell in a handbasket?

    So, is the eurozone out of the woods now we have the fiscal compact and a second bailout of Greece? Not likely. The can is just slightly further down the road. The wall of liquidity over the last few months has merely provided a smoke screen by pumping up some asset prices such as stocks, meanwhile the real world continues to get worse – economies are weak or shrinking in the EU and unemployment continues to rise (with eurozone unemployment hitting a record high of 10.7% in January, with Spain at 23.2%). The problem of the eurozone not being an optimal currency area is arguably getting worse, as the divergence between Germany and the PIIGS widens. Germany continues to profit from what is an undervalued currency for them and uncompetitive competitors in the form of the PIIGS (hence their record low levels of unemployment), whilst the PIIGS try and claw back some competitiveness against Germany by suffering deflationary death spirals. They still have a long way to go to claw back the 30% loss in competitiveness they suffered since the inception of the euro. Which brings me to Greece. The last bailout reduced their debt to a reported 120% of GDP, which was hailed as a big success. What the eurozone leaders seemed to forget though is that 120% of debt is almost certainly unsustainable. If you look at historical sovereign defaults around the world, the levels of debt at the time of default are usually lower than 120%, much lower; more than half of defaults by middle income countries occur at levels of external debt relative to GDP below 60% (I appreciate Greece is a richer country, but that is a pretty telling stat from Reinhart and Rogoff’s This Time is Different book). Greece is still contracting and the deflationary policies thrust upon it are only going to exacerbate that in the short to medium term. The lesson from the Latin America defaults of the last few decades is to not delay default, but rather to get on with it and then you can concentrate on growing again. Growth is key to dealing with a debt problem and so enforced deflationary policies at this time will only make the situation worse. So what next for Greece? I attended a conference on the lessons from the Latin American defaults in London last month and one of the points made there was: If a new government is elected shortly that decides it does not like what its current leaders have signed up to, it may just decide to strategically default, that is, simply announce it does not agree with what its previous leaders imposed on the country and stop servicing its debt despite in theory still being able to. Strategic defaults have been avoided in the past and instead defaults have occurred when the country simply had no other choice (probably for the simple reason that heads of government usually get kicked out of office in the aftermath of a default), until Ecuador in 2008 when a new government said the debt of the previous government was illegitimate. Now there is a precedent that others may decide to follow.
  6. I expected a top in January at lower levels (which obviously didnt come), so appreciate you may want to ignore what I have to say, but maybe consider a few points: "In the early hours of 27 October 2011, eurozone leaders agreed on another package of measures designed to prevent the collapse of member economies. This included an agreement with banks to accept a 50% write-off of Greek debt owed to private creditors, increasing the EFSF to about €1 trillion, and requiring European banks to achieve 9% capitalisation". - The SPX made a multi-month top on.......the 27th October at 1,292.66. In the early hours of this morning (21st Feb) a second Greek bailout was agreed (which almost certainly won't work either, but more on that later). - The SPX rose into the 21st Feb.....?? Vix has been in a falling bearish wedge since last autumn. The question was, when would it break out of this? - It broke out to the upside of its falling wedge a week or so ago and then fell back to retest the upper wedge line but has not fallen back within the wedge. This is a common pattern, will it prove to be a last kiss goodbye? The Bradley turn dates worked pretty well for much of last year until late in the year and early this year where they seemed to stop working (the last one that worked really well in 2011 was the 28th October - which plus/minus one day coincided with the multi-month turn top mentioned above). - However, is Bradley waking up again? The last turn date was the 16th Feb, which coincided with a big turn up last week in this latest thrust up in the markets. The next Bradley turn is the 22nd Feb (tomorrow). I suggested on Bubbs trading thread I think it was that the 16th Feb thrust up looked like a 5th wave of some degree after a sideways ABCDE pattern that took the preceeding week to trace out (such ABCDE patterns are most commonly seen in the penultimate, 4th, wave). I also suggested that if that was the case that the 5th wave would likely top in the Tuesday to Thursday (Bradley plus/minus one day) window this week. Does this mean we will see a top this week and most likely today? Only time will tell, but the set up at least has a familiar look about it.
  7. nbarter

    Greece to leave Euro... Eventually

    Think you misunderstand me monsieur, they did the right thing to default and i have quoted the Argies as an example on here before as proof that things are not so dire from going down that route and that is what Greece should do, but my point is they could have done it better. Coz they couldnt get money from the international markets they seized money from domestic pension funds.
  8. nbarter

    Greece to leave Euro... Eventually

    Unless you mess your default up like Argentina. I understand that it has been frozen out of international money markets since 2001.
  9. nbarter

    Greece to leave Euro... Eventually

    Thanks, not the happiest shaved one i have seen admittedly.
  10. nbarter

    Greece to leave Euro... Eventually

    was thinking more Elgin. poor taste i know.
  11. nbarter

    Greece to leave Euro... Eventually

    He must have lost his marbles, oh wait, what am i saying!!
  12. An update on this chart which may or may not be meaningful. Vix continued its way lower keeping within the wedge for another week until it broke through the upper wedge line last week. It then came back to retest the upper wedge line before moving higher again. Was this break out higher last week an early warning of a top in stocks? only time will tell but if the last few months are anything to go by then prob not..
  13. nbarter

    Greece to leave Euro... Eventually

    That's what i did think, but over the last couple of weeks the Germans etc have seemingly been finding any excuse not to hand over the funds (yesterday's cancelled finance ministers meeting being a case in point). I think they are forcing the Greeks out of the euro instead, gambling the eurozone is now strong enough to withstand this course of action as the chances of the Greeks doing just what you say are too high and so the benefits of throwing more good money after bad at this stage don't stack up. Would help to explain the opening of the ECB spigots and the run up of the markets of late.
  14. Apologies i should have been clearer. I am still long term bearish, no question, and the charts i showed at the beginning of this thread are still what i am looking for i.e new lows below those of March 2009. Just that if this market doesn't turn down from these levels now then it looks like the SPX will want to move up to make a new multi-year high above that of May 2011, i.e this faux recovery could drag on for weeks or even months longer. But the end result should be the same. So whilst I don't like the idea of being caught napping when the turn down comes, i also dont want to throw good money after bad so will just have to accept that i will miss the first portion of any slide (unless it has already started). However, given the contracting wedges that many markets are tracing out (inc the Vix) it looks like the reversal when it comes could be violent so catching this falling knife might be tricky..
  15. Good points JD. Would love to see the situation where governments are not seen to be responsibile for everything (they have for years encouraged people to think the can change everything which has sadly encourged them to give up responsibility) and people start to take more responsibility for themselves. Perhaps a poor choice of words - what i was getting at is this issue of losing freedoms is not a fringe issue put forward by the type of people who are convinved man never walked on the moon but rather something real that is sadly happening.
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