Hogwild

I dont think so. A very up market removal company has just delivered the new occupant's belongings. I'll observe behaviour though; it usually speaks volumes.

We now have confirmation; the lucky £5000 per week tenants are moving in today!

Sometime ago I remember Dr Bubb doing a calculation of the speculative premium in UK housing. The average house needs to fall from £168000 down to £135000 ie 20%. Despite all the frantic efforts to recreate the boom prices are stuck. The laxative of rising unemployment and the threat from the bond market vigilantes should shift the blockage in the next 18 months. In real terms of course we have already seen a substantial crash but of course the experts in smoke and mirrors technology have completely hoodwinked the bulk of the UK population about the true state of affairs.

Bearing in mind that we are in the City of Westminster, where the well known case a woman with 6 kids living at taxpayers expense in a £2.5m house just a stones throw from that other burden on the taxpayer - Mr & Mrs T Bliar!, anything is possible.

The house next to me no longer has it's For Let sign. This was placed on the market early June at a rent of £4995 per week. It appears they may have a taker!! I hereby eat my previous predictions on the UK Prperty thread that they would never let it!

Funding for a government scheme that helps protect homeowners at risk of repossession is to be reduced, the housing minister announced today. That should get the bowels of the market shifting!

The UK population has been brainwashed by the government media machine. Special interest groups have been pandered to and made to feel that they are entitled to a free living, and many choose not to work. I hope this nonsense is about to stop otherwise I am getting out in a couple of years time. I had to struggle in my earlier years because I started with nothing; I didnt expect handouts. I dont see why I should subsidize the lazy. If they choose to remain idle and not figure out for themselves how to pull themselves up by their bootstraps - tough luck! There should be no easy way out for the lazy. The only exceptions to this in my books are the disabled, sick and mentally ill - in a civilised society they must be helped. 40 years ago Singapore was a backwater. There industrious population have tranformed their tiny island into an a massive success under the leaderhip of Lee Quan Yue. He was tough, uncorruptible and fair. The people responded as they have. Meanwhile over here in the UK our obsession with "mob rule dressed up in a coat and tie" (hat tip Mr Casey) - so called democracy- has allowed the majority (dumb asses in the main) to set the sails for the good ship HMS UK and head towards the rocks. Falling real standards of living will hopefully remove the idea that a country can live beyond it 's means, and at some one elses expense.

In 1973 real estate in the UK was in a blow-off mode. 1974 heralded a banking crisis - Natwest Bank was technically bust but was bailed out by the other clearing banks on the insistance of the Governor of the B of E. In those days of course the crash in house prices in real terms was masked by the general inflation rate. It was after this crash that I was able to purchase two flats on 9,75% mortgages and exploit the swing back up in property prices by 25%.

With a tougher view on the role of the public sector and the associated budget trimming, interest rates have to be kept very low for a long time, otherwise they really would crash the housing market and further undermine the banks' capital. Even if rates rise thay will be behind the inflation curve and be negative in real terms -unless a calamity encourages the bond vigilantes to demand much higher rates. I think a period of stealth inflation is ahead - the benign influence of deflation from China will ease as workers there demand higher wages. Overvalued assets will continue to deflate in real terms; but the things we need in our everyday lives will increase in price. Whilst there are negative real interest rates the price of gold will reflect that and attract buyers. The other variable of course is the £$ relationship - more austerity in the UK and less in the USA or vice versa will govern the moves from a UK holder's perspective. As a buyer from 2003 onwards I have seen the currency ebb and flow but the value of the early purchases are up almost 4-fold. Depends on the time horizon someone has.

After the gold rush Gold is not as expensive as it seems Jul 6th 2010 | From The Economist online FOR the past nine months, gold has been trading consistently over $1,000 an ounce. It reached a high of $1,259 on June 18th, up 35% from a year earlier. After adjusting for inflation, today’s heady prices are some way off the 1980s mania. The 2010 yearly average of $1,154 is still 29% below the inflation-adjusted price in 1980 of $1,623. Perhaps now is the time to sell. After the January 1980 peak, the price fell by 55% over the following two years. They fail to mention the comparable debt figures and how they have inflated over this time period. How convenient. Teenage scribblers or what?

According to a Reuters poll UK house price recovery to taper off but no double dip RTRSUK house prices to rise 3.5 pct in 2010, 1.9 pct in 2011 16 of 22 economists see no double dip in prices Monthly UK mortgage approvals to creep up British house prices will regain some lost value this year but while the speed of the uptick will taper off next year there is little chance of a double dip, according to the latest Reuters poll of property analysts. The quarterly survey of 27 analysts showed house prices will increase 3.5 percent this year but just 1.9 percent in 2011, a rosier outlook for 2010 than in April's poll which saw prices rising 2.0 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2011. Only six of 22 analysts in the poll taken between July 1-8 said prices would fall again. Will they regain lost value in terms of gold though? It's funny how "economists" rarely mention this.

There a still some interesting sellers ( Grainger and Halifax in particular) in the auctions. Here is the latest from Allsop: ""The sale will be held over two days on Wednesday 17th and Monday 22nd February. As usual, the venue will be The Cumberland Hotel, Great Cumberland Place. Marble Arch London W1. Clients represented at this important sale include Anglian Water Group, Aviva Investors, AXA Sun Life plc, Department of Health Estates, Grainger plc, Halifax plc, Hyde Housing Association Ltd, L & Q, BRB (Residuary) Ltd in association with Lambert Smith Hampton, Metropolitan Housing Trust, Mountview Estates plc, Network Rail, Riverside, The London Borough of Southwark, The London Borough of Lambeth, Sovereign Housing Group, Springboard Housing Association."" Grainger was a bit close to the edge at one point. Interesting that they are still deleveraging. If they saw a rebound of any size in the future they would surely have been hanging on. Let the buyer beware. Anyone tempted to buy should take heed from some of the comments above regarding rents having been stationary for 5 years. There are landlords that need you more than you need them.

Here are some anecdotals from Allsop & Co ( no!! definately NOT Kirsty!!!) Residential Auction Sale - 29th October 2009 Please note that the following guide prices have been significantly reduced; Lot 172 91 The Causeway, Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TL £100,000 to £125,000 (previously £130,000 to £150,000) Lot 203 Flat 5, 2-3 Heene Terrace, Worthing, West Sussex, BN11 3NW £80,000+ (previously £100,000 to £110,000) Lot 227 9 Grosvenor Road, Wanstead, London, E11 2EW £1.2 million+ (previously £1.3 to £1.5 million) Lot 244 Ivybank, Wellington Road, Temple Ewell, Dover, Kent, CT16 3DB £200,000 to £250,000 (previously £300,000 to £350,000)

Here is a mixed message from the leading property auctioneer after the recent September auction: "Auctioneer and partner, Gary Murphy commented: "There is clear evidence in the room that confidence in property is continuing to strenghten. From the opening moments of the sale, bidding was strong and determined across all sectors. The most noticeable improvement in demand was for prime Central London unmodernised vacant flats. It was virtually insatiable. The problem for us is lack of stock, not lack of demand. For example, flats in Hyde Park Gate and Kensington Gate in Chelsea and in Ormonde Gate, Kensington all significantly exceeded expectations". (*see Highlights below) One sector which had formerly fallen victim to the recession, land and buildings for redevelopment, is now showing signs of a healthy recovery. Lots to note included a Grade II Listed manor house in 1.23 acres (Lot 88 - sold for the London Borough of Hillingdon at £1.295m), a small corner site in Holloway, London N7 (Lot 108 - sold for £1.115m) and a site of 0.21 acres in Bromley (Lot 243 - sold for 600,000). (*see Highlights below) Commenting further on the recovery in market conditions, Murphy said: "The level of repossession sales has been noticeably reduced in the post-summer auction rooms as the market begins to show signs of recovery. I think however it's too soon to say whether this trend is unlikely to be reversed. We may see higher volumes of repossession sales over the next 12 months and this view is shared by some of our lender clients." Cash rich investors fought keenly for income. However, Murphy cautioned: "Although the market is improving it is still fundamentally fragile. Assured shorthold investments are principally yield driven in this sort of climate. Sellers therefore need to be conscious of price sensitivities when planning AST disposals." Yields Analysis Assured Shorthold Tenancies 9.01% Regulated Tenancies 4.82% Ground Rents 3.99% "

Update: My post of the 29th Oct 2007 mentioned an end of terrace house in St Johns Wood London selling for £2.75 million. The house has now been gutted and refurbished at a cost of ? - maybe £200000. It is now up for rental at.... errr £4700 per week! It has been on the rental market for 6 weeks. Who in their right mind is going to rent this at quarter of a million per year!!? Some property is moving though at not much below asking prices. A friend of mine has just sold a 3 bedroom flat in Maida Vale for £739000. He sold it to an employee of a well known British bank's investment banking division!! Interesting times! Hogwild