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cbs7

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Everything posted by cbs7

  1. cbs7

    Fascism one step closer

    Have you actually been given a court summons and who is it from? http://www.penaltyfare.org.uk/ doesn't seem to be working right now. There are similar scams going on now in supermarket car parks which now seem to have cameras set up to clock cars coming in and out. If you go a few minutes over say a 2 or 3-hour limit you get a "notice" in the post from a company demanding you pay the "penalty charge" on the notice in the car parks. These are completely unenforceable as the company would need to sue you privately in a county court and they have very little chance of winning. They rely on fear and threats to get a good % of people who receive the letters to pay up. If anyone gets these it seems the current advice is to just ignore them http://forums.pepipoo.com/lofiversion/index.php/t38510.html Not sure if this applies to your train ticket. Who is issued by?
  2. I think they misunderstood because shorting ticker PHAU is completly different to buying the Short Gold ETC (ticker SBUL). To short PHAU your broker should be borrowing the shares from another customer/broker before he lets you short. In this case you are merely selling someone else's gold and you will have to buy it back at some point. If you buy SBUL it isn't backed by any physical gold at all, it is a bet on the daily percentage change in price of gold and is backed up by futures contracts. At least that's the way I understand it.
  3. cbs7

    Online Brokers

    I opened a TOS account as a backup to IB and am UK resident. Haven't used it yet, however the platform is very impressive, a bit too much perhaps like IB
  4. I don't think they really understood/answered your question. You can short the physical ETFs, only as long as you have a margin account and your broker lets you do so and they have shares available (from other margin customers or other dealers) to borrow. The Short ETFs like they say are a completely different product and have their own separate issues.
  5. Interesting that you can actually take delivery as a retail investor. I presume you need enough for a LBMA bar. Yes we are agreed on points 1-4. I'm not sure though if you are thinking about 5-6 correctly though because you are starting from the basis that both you and I have zero shares "5. If I sell shares to you – The ETC does not need to do anything – I owe you some shares." To sell me those shares you would need to borrow them in a margin account. Your brokerage would need to locate the shares you want to sell from some other party who holds them in a margin account or some other dealer somewhere. So the shares you are borrowing should be backed by real shares somewhere (which in turn are backed by gold). All of this assumes you aren't naked shorting, which my understanding is illegal in USA, not sure about UK. I know in my margin account I can't short UK shares if the broker doesn't have any shares available. This has happened to me (never shorted gold ETFs yet though!) and I haven't been able to execute a short trade in an ETC because there weren't any shares available to borrow. "6. If I sell shares to the ETC (Same as 4) - so the ETC must sell gold - BUT, at the same time, I owe the ETC some shares which I must purchase in the future." I don't think this can happen assuming the same as I explain in #5 that you can't naked short. What are really discussing is what the mechanisms of a short sale are and my brokerage is extremely careful now not present any FTDs (Fail To Delivers). It nearly made me buy back a small short position I had because the shares I had borrowed were no longer available. It located some shares before the end of the trading session but it would have automatically bought back my position if no shares had become available Hope some of that makes sense
  6. I don't think so, because what happens is you buy the shares which forces the ETC to buy the physical gold. You don't need any actual gold yourself to go short as you are borrowing shares. If you are long the shares, you can't redeem them for physical gold through a regular brokerage account - at least that's my understanding.
  7. By going short you aren't promising to deliver gold, you are promising to deliver shares when you cover/buy back your short position. In theory when you buy back the shares in this specific scenario ETFC would have to go and buy the 1,000,000 oz as the overall position would be net long 1,000,000 oz. I think these specifics of being able to short or not aren't the point. ETFs are paper traded on a stock exchange. That is ultimately the real risk, whether you believe the exchanges will go to hell or whether you think there is fraud in the setup of the various ETFs or in their operations (e.g. they don't actually buy any gold, they just keep your money, aka ponzi scheme). The bottom line is do you trust the ETFs? Personally I do for the moment and for a small % of my PM portfolio. I like Goldmoney and have a % of PMs there, but how can I be absolutely sure there isn't any fraud going on? No one can be sure. You need to diversify your PM holdings if you have any significant amounts of PMs, if you have just a little keep it all 100% physical near you and hidden.
  8. cbs7

    Singapore / Thai / Indonesian stocks

    Interactive Brokers has a very good global coverage. However you won't get certificates and you need to convert your currency to whatever you are buying in (the conversion rates have a very good tiny spread though so you don't lose there).
  9. cbs7

    Richard Russell

    That's a really good piece. I've also given up worrying about whether it's inflation/deflation/hyperinflation. I figure that since 2000 every single major asset class (stocks, bonds, real estate, currencies) has deflated in terms of gold. The 1930s were a period of severe deflation where assets all fell in value against the dollar. But then the dollar was gold, so to me it was a deflation against gold. I think we will continue getting deflation in all these assets against gold. Gold is money and we need to use some kind of fixed neutral measure to properly measure inflation/deflation. At some point assets will stop deflating against gold which is when deflation will be over and paradoxically the new inflation will mean we should sell gold and buy other assets.
  10. I heard it too yesterday and funnily enough this morning it struck me how unreal his opinions were. it made me think the guy was insane and I needed to get on the opposite side of the trade. I had a quick search for Canadian REITs but many of them have followed the stock market down already. They have had a bounce though (with the general market) and potential ones might be Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (REF.UN) and Boardwalk (BEI.UN) http://canreit.com/ http://www.creit.ca/ Not very Vancouver specific though
  11. I was listening to a presentation on the European Gold Forum 2008 from Silver Wheaton where they claim they are 150% leveraged to the silver price. They say for every 10% increase in silver their cash flow increases 15%. Not sure exactly how a 15% cashflow increase relates exactly to the share price but I wanted to check this out by examining the SLW-SLV ratio Seems to be bouncing off that trendline nicely, so I've put in an order to top my holding - lets see if it fills
  12. cbs7

    GOLD

    saw this in the latest Dilbert newsletter and it made me smile http://dilbert.com/newsletter/issue/December_2008_Issue71
  13. thanks steve, look forward to it when you get the time
  14. Steve, I really appreciate the effort you have gone into on this thread and your other main one to discuss these concepts. I have to admit I haven't read all the material you've posted yet, but one thing which springs to mind is that the current fiat systems are often tied into national tax systems. The fact that there is a single dominant currency within a country allows the government to relatively easily track income, transactions, profits and tax them all. This would be more difficult with competing local currencies wouldn't it? I suppose as long as these competing currencies remain fairly marginal governments wouldn't really be very concerned, but they might feel threatened if they did become more popular. For example the government might try and accuse people who use them of evading taxes? Does Bernard discuss this aspect at all?
  15. Is that really true though? Have house prices and wages in Iceland increased as a result of the Krone's devaluation? It is important in my mind to distinguish between inflation caused by money supply and credit expansion and currency devaluation? I would have thought domestic assets within an economy merely remain the same price in nominal terms when a currency is devalued, whereas assets which have foreign assets or hard assets would be nominally valued higher. Otherwise what is the point of the devaluation?
  16. I would like to start keeping a closer eye on bonds, especially treasuries. Something which bothers me slightly is whether technical analysis can be applied in the same way to bonds as to stocks. Strictly speaking the price of a bond is based on its yield and it's assumed that yields can't go below 0% (although they did briefly in the recent crisis). Because yields have this 0% floor, can TA which is normally applied to stocks work as well on bonds? In particular right now the very short-US bonds have yields very close to zero. Hopefully someone will point this is just a stupid question, and that TA can be applied exactly the same, but I would like to check! I would also prefer to trade using ETFS, so does anyone have experience which ETFs are the most liquid? Thanks! cbs7
  17. cbs7

    Books

    I just read Trading for a Living by Elder and was very impressed. I have also borrowed a copy from a friend of his later version "Come Into My Trading Room" and I would thoroughly recommend his book, in particular the final chapters about organising your time as a trader / investor. If you want to get a copy you can run the following google search and there is a pdf download as the 3rd result down (PM me if you can't find it) http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q...em%22&meta= I am planning to try and start applying his techniques as a way of structuring my TA knowledge better. Has anyone tried using his methods?
  18. cbs7

    Graph to track Gilt Prices

    not sure if any of these tickers on Yahoo Finance are any good for you BG07.L - UK Gilt IL 10-15 BG0B.L - FTSE UK Gilt Over 25 IL02.L - UK Gilt IL 0-5 Depending on what your intentions are for the funds, they aren't such a bad bet right now.
  19. Bubb, do you have any updates to the shell island economy? I think this thread is fascinating, as it helps to simplify basic market economy concepts. Thanks
  20. cbs7

    Site Infection.

    yes it's back
  21. There is a Yuan ETF issued by WisdomTree. Ticker is CYB on US exchange and there is an ETN (Exchange Traded Note) Market Vectors Renminbi, ticker CNY, the difference being the ETN is a debt instrument issued by Morgan Stanley so there is some default risk
  22. Wonderful link thanks! The bottom 3 are very significant: 3rd largest deficit in the world.... UK! 2nd largest deficit................. Spain!!! And the winner is of course ........ USA!!!!! 186 United Kingdom $ -119,200,000,000 2007 est. 187 Spain $ -145,300,000,000 2007 est. 188 United States $ -731,200,000,000 2007 est.
  23. cbs7

    WATCH THIS NOW!!!

    Chris Martenson has done a truly excellent job with these videos. He is encouraging everyone to spread the message, so please visit the site and pass on the details of the Crash Course to anyone you think who is open to his thinking
  24. Hi warpig I have been trying to understand the spot price and future price differentials better too. There is a good website www.silveraxis.com and an associated blog http://silveraxis.com/todayinsilver/ written by Tom Szabo, who is doing some work on the gold and silver basis. Antale E Fekete www.professorfekete.com also has written numerous articles on the potential effect of futures contango or backwardation on the gold and silver prices. Have a look around those sites and see if there is anything of interest. What I haven't seen anywhere is truly how the Spot price of gold or silver is calculated. There are twice-daily London gold and silver spot fixes but I don't understand where the intraday spot price comes from given this isn't actually traded anywhere. Can anyone enlighten us further?
  25. Have been away from the board for a bit Steve, but thanks for these links which I will take a look at
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