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cbs7

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Posts posted by cbs7


  1. Have you actually been given a court summons and who is it from?

     

    http://www.penaltyfare.org.uk/ doesn't seem to be working right now.

     

    There are similar scams going on now in supermarket car parks which now seem to have cameras set up to clock cars coming in and out. If you go a few minutes over say a 2 or 3-hour limit you get a "notice" in the post from a company demanding you pay the "penalty charge" on the notice in the car parks. These are completely unenforceable as the company would need to sue you privately in a county court and they have very little chance of winning. They rely on fear and threats to get a good % of people who receive the letters to pay up. If anyone gets these it seems the current advice is to just ignore them

     

    http://forums.pepipoo.com/lofiversion/index.php/t38510.html

     

    Not sure if this applies to your train ticket. Who is issued by?

     

     


  2. Yes it does make sense and I believe you are right.

     

     

    This was my question (below). His answer seems to match up ok with my question

     

     

     

    Hi,

     

    I have some questions about ETFS Physical Gold. I have been unable to

    download the prospectus from your website.

     

    I notice the Key Features of the ETC lists 'Able to short'. I am

    struggling to understand what this means.

     

    I understand that the ETC will buy gold if I buy the ETC with £10,000.

    The amount of gold bought will match my purchase (minus my purchasing fees).

     

    But what will happen if someone shorts the ETC with £10,000? Will it

    sell £10,000 of gold?

     

    What I am getting at....... will the ETC buy and hold gold to back my

    purchase if I buy £10,000 and someone else shorts £10,000 on the same day?

     

    I would be concerned if the 'backing' of my purchase replies on someone

    else to deliver on their short position.

     

    I look forward to your response. Thank you

     

     

    I think they misunderstood because shorting ticker PHAU is completly different to buying the Short Gold ETC (ticker SBUL).

     

    To short PHAU your broker should be borrowing the shares from another customer/broker before he lets you short. In this case you are merely selling someone else's gold and you will have to buy it back at some point.

     

    If you buy SBUL it isn't backed by any physical gold at all, it is a bet on the daily percentage change in price of gold and is backed up by futures contracts. At least that's the way I understand it.

     

     


  3. TDW have been good for me. Benefit is access to Canadian markets and being able to add any Canadian stock to my ISA which othere brokers have told me is not possible?.

     

    But now I'm looking for the next step up in terms of market access. With TDW you cannot see depth of market,time of sales etc and the charting is appalling.

     

    I was getting excited about thinkorswim but it seems they dont allow UK residents to open an account?? I thought some on here (from the UK) used it? Does anyone?

     

    So it looks like Interactive Brokers will be my (forced) choice for my more active trades, whilst leaving my ISA/longer term investments with TDW.

     

    TDW are also more expensive than IB or TOS.

     

    I opened a TOS account as a backup to IB and am UK resident. Haven't used it yet, however the platform is very impressive, a bit too much perhaps like IB


  4. I emailed ETF Securities about shorting the physical precious metal ETCs.

     

    Here’s the reply.

    I don't think they really understood/answered your question. You can short the physical ETFs, only as long as you have a margin account and your broker lets you do so and they have shares available (from other margin customers or other dealers) to borrow.

     

    The Short ETFs like they say are a completely different product and have their own separate issues.


  5. I did find this though. Apparently you can withdraw your bullion

    http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/faqs/etfs_faqs.asp

     

    Interesting that you can actually take delivery as a retail investor. I presume you need enough for a LBMA bar.

     

    Yes we are agreed on points 1-4. I'm not sure though if you are thinking about 5-6 correctly though because you are starting from the basis that both you and I have zero shares

     

    "5. If I sell shares to you – The ETC does not need to do anything – I owe you some shares."

     

    To sell me those shares you would need to borrow them in a margin account. Your brokerage would need to locate the shares you want to sell from some other party who holds them in a margin account or some other dealer somewhere. So the shares you are borrowing should be backed by real shares somewhere (which in turn are backed by gold). All of this assumes you aren't naked shorting, which my understanding is illegal in USA, not sure about UK. I know in my margin account I can't short UK shares if the broker doesn't have any shares available. This has happened to me (never shorted gold ETFs yet though!) and I haven't been able to execute a short trade in an ETC because there weren't any shares available to borrow.

     

    "6. If I sell shares to the ETC (Same as 4) - so the ETC must sell gold - BUT, at the same time, I owe the ETC some shares which I must purchase in the future."

     

    I don't think this can happen assuming the same as I explain in #5 that you can't naked short.

     

    What are really discussing is what the mechanisms of a short sale are and my brokerage is extremely careful now not present any FTDs (Fail To Delivers). It nearly made me buy back a small short position I had because the shares I had borrowed were no longer available. It located some shares before the end of the trading session but it would have automatically bought back my position if no shares had become available

     

    Hope some of that makes sense

     


  6. Aren’t a ‘number of shares’ and ‘an amount of gold’ effectively the same thing if the ETC is claiming to be fully backed by physical gold?

    I don't think so, because what happens is you buy the shares which forces the ETC to buy the physical gold. You don't need any actual gold yourself to go short as you are borrowing shares. If you are long the shares, you can't redeem them for physical gold through a regular brokerage account - at least that's my understanding.


  7. If you go Long on 1,000,000 Ozt using PHAU

    And I go Short on 1,000,000 Ozt using PHAU on the same day

     

    PHAU won’t buy any gold because the net gold liability is unchanged. The security of your gold is dependant on my ability to deliver it*.

     

    You cannot ‘short’ gold at BV and GM so this problem doesn’t exist.

     

    cgnao posted a highlighted set of ETF/C T&C to show some of the differences. I can’t find it unfortunately.

     

    * ? – I’m adding a little question mark here because I am not 100% certain.

    By going short you aren't promising to deliver gold, you are promising to deliver shares when you cover/buy back your short position. In theory when you buy back the shares in this specific scenario ETFC would have to go and buy the 1,000,000 oz as the overall position would be net long 1,000,000 oz.

     

    I think these specifics of being able to short or not aren't the point. ETFs are paper traded on a stock exchange. That is ultimately the real risk, whether you believe the exchanges will go to hell or whether you think there is fraud in the setup of the various ETFs or in their operations (e.g. they don't actually buy any gold, they just keep your money, aka ponzi scheme).

     

    The bottom line is do you trust the ETFs? Personally I do for the moment and for a small % of my PM portfolio. I like Goldmoney and have a % of PMs there, but how can I be absolutely sure there isn't any fraud going on? No one can be sure. You need to diversify your PM holdings if you have any significant amounts of PMs, if you have just a little keep it all 100% physical near you and hidden.

     


  8. Hi guys,

     

    If possible, I'd really like some advice

     

    I live in the UK. At the moment 80% of my savings are in the yellow shinny stuff. The remainder is in foreign currency (Singapore dollar / Yen / HK dollar). I have a tiny balance in turdling, for buying stuff like food

     

    I don't want to sell my gold, but I want to diversify slightly as I continue to save (I'm good at this - live a simple, but enjoyable life!). I predict an inflationary outcome to QE - I also don't want to have anything to do with the UK economy - UK debt - household / corporate / govt too high. And the situation shows no sign of improving. The turning points for me would be

     

    1. A UK current account equilibrium (debt stabilisation)

    2. Positive real interest rates (signifying a commitment to maintaining the purchasing power of sterling)

     

    I can't see these turning points at the moment - so the UK is a complete no go.

     

    I want to invest in stocks in countries such as Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand.

     

    Could anyone recommend an execution dealer that would let me buy stocks in these countries, paying in sterling. I would also want to keep hold of the share certificates myself (counterparty risk). I don't want to buy any shit that's priced in turdling that's traded on the London Stock Exchange.

     

    Many thanks in advance

     

    Nigel

     

    Interactive Brokers has a very good global coverage. However you won't get certificates and you need to convert your currency to whatever you are buying in (the conversion rates have a very good tiny spread though so you don't lose there).


  9.  

    That's a really good piece. I've also given up worrying about whether it's inflation/deflation/hyperinflation.

     

    I figure that since 2000 every single major asset class (stocks, bonds, real estate, currencies) has deflated in terms of gold. The 1930s were a period of severe deflation where assets all fell in value against the dollar. But then the dollar was gold, so to me it was a deflation against gold.

     

    I think we will continue getting deflation in all these assets against gold. Gold is money and we need to use some kind of fixed neutral measure to properly measure inflation/deflation.

     

    At some point assets will stop deflating against gold which is when deflation will be over and paradoxically the new inflation will mean we should sell gold and buy other assets. :blink:


  10. Vancouver Property - How do I short it?

    Overvalued, and betting on low rates forever

    ===================================

     

    Items:

    + Valued at something like 7x Income

    + The "fourth most expensive" property in North America

     

     

    Michael Levy, normally a sensible guy, let's me down. He must be long V. property.

     

    I heard it too yesterday and funnily enough this morning it struck me how unreal his opinions were. it made me think the guy was insane and I needed to get on the opposite side of the trade. I had a quick search for Canadian REITs but many of them have followed the stock market down already.

     

    They have had a bounce though (with the general market) and potential ones might be Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (REF.UN) and Boardwalk (BEI.UN)

     

    http://canreit.com/

    http://www.creit.ca/

     

    Not very Vancouver specific though


  11. saw this in the latest Dilbert newsletter and it made me smile :lol:

     

    http://dilbert.com/newsletter/issue/December_2008_Issue71

     

    Soon Dogbert will claim his rightful place as Emperor of the World, and you will rule by his side, replacing all governments worldwide. Our slogan will be "We're no worse than the clowns who had this job before".

     

    Dogbert plans to turn the economy around by declaring that gold is worthless and regular rocks are highly valuable. It never made sense that rare minerals were worth the most. That was just asking for a recession. Under the Dogbert regime, you'll be able to buy a Prius with a handful of crushed stones.

     

    I realize this concept might cause some inflation. But if the Grand Canyon is such a great natural wonder, think how much prettier the world would be with huge holes everywhere.


  12. He certainly does. You see, if you check out his background, he's very much someone you'd expect to call "an insider".

    I admit when I started reading the book I was 90% expecting something I'd hate. I thought "oh this is going to be some insider theories on changing the monetary system". Boy was I wrong.

     

    My one regret in life in not persevering with touch typing. So I'm a bit limited in how much I can type in a reasonable time :(

    That last full page quote took me rather too long !!!

     

    I'll try and summarise his comments on tax sometime soon.

    thanks steve, look forward to it when you get the time


  13. Steve, I really appreciate the effort you have gone into on this thread and your other main one to discuss these concepts. I have to admit I haven't read all the material you've posted yet, but one thing which springs to mind is that the current fiat systems are often tied into national tax systems. The fact that there is a single dominant currency within a country allows the government to relatively easily track income, transactions, profits and tax them all.

     

    This would be more difficult with competing local currencies wouldn't it? I suppose as long as these competing currencies remain fairly marginal governments wouldn't really be very concerned, but they might feel threatened if they did become more popular. For example the government might try and accuse people who use them of evading taxes? Does Bernard discuss this aspect at all?

     

     


  14. All asset prices would double if the pound was formally devalued by half. It would be an inflation by other means. Gold also would double in price. These prices are inflated nominal prices from the perspective of present pounds. The rationale for devaluation is that the debt numbers [debt, and also savings for that matter, are not prices] remain the same. Public and private debt would therefore become servicable and the bulk of the population would happily accept the move considering that most are in debt and their wages [the price of labour] are doubled. Of course, the politicians would prefer for a conventional "free market" inflation [reflation] but that may not happen.

     

    Is that really true though? Have house prices and wages in Iceland increased as a result of the Krone's devaluation?

     

    It is important in my mind to distinguish between inflation caused by money supply and credit expansion and currency devaluation?

     

    I would have thought domestic assets within an economy merely remain the same price in nominal terms when a currency is devalued, whereas assets which have foreign assets or hard assets would be nominally valued higher. Otherwise what is the point of the devaluation?

     


  15. I would like to start keeping a closer eye on bonds, especially treasuries.

     

    Something which bothers me slightly is whether technical analysis can be applied in the same way to bonds as to stocks.

     

    Strictly speaking the price of a bond is based on its yield and it's assumed that yields can't go below 0% (although they did briefly in the recent crisis). Because yields have this 0% floor, can TA which is normally applied to stocks work as well on bonds? In particular right now the very short-US bonds have yields very close to zero.

     

    Hopefully someone will point this is just a stupid question, and that TA can be applied exactly the same, but I would like to check!

     

    I would also prefer to trade using ETFS, so does anyone have experience which ETFs are the most liquid?

     

    Thanks! :)

    cbs7

     

     

     


  16. (I'm interested in anything on Home Trading. Any tips? Elder's stuff any good?)

     

    I just read Trading for a Living by Elder and was very impressed. I have also borrowed a copy from a friend of his later version "Come Into My Trading Room" and I would thoroughly recommend his book, in particular the final chapters about organising your time as a trader / investor.

     

    If you want to get a copy you can run the following google search and there is a pdf download as the 3rd result down (PM me if you can't find it)

     

    http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q...em%22&meta=

     

    I am planning to try and start applying his techniques as a way of structuring my TA knowledge better. Has anyone tried using his methods?


  17. There are currency ETFs but I can't see any for yuan, shorting the dollar at some time in the near future might be something to be considered. (This is not a recommendation as I have n't used any of them yet)

     

    http://www.currencyshares.com/

     

    http://www.invescopowershares.com/products...aspx?ticker=UDN

     

    http://www.invescopowershares.com/products...aspx?ticker=UUP

     

    There is a Yuan ETF issued by WisdomTree. Ticker is CYB on US exchange and there is an ETN (Exchange Traded Note) Market Vectors Renminbi, ticker CNY, the difference being the ETN is a debt instrument issued by Morgan Stanley so there is some default risk


  18.  

    Wonderful link thanks!

     

    The bottom 3 are very significant:

     

    3rd largest deficit in the world.... UK!

    2nd largest deficit................. Spain!!!

     

    And the winner is of course ........ USA!!!!!

     

    186 United Kingdom $ -119,200,000,000 2007 est.

    187 Spain $ -145,300,000,000 2007 est.

    188 United States $ -731,200,000,000 2007 est.

     


  19. Maybe I need to change the title again.

     

    CHRIS MARTENSON Videos with screenshots - Peak Oil A,B,C & Latest News

    This set of vids is getting wider worldwide attention

    http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4005

     

     

    IMO everyone needs to watch these

     

    Chris Martenson has done a truly excellent job with these videos. He is encouraging everyone to spread the message, so please visit the site and pass on the details of the Crash Course to anyone you think who is open to his thinking


  20. I would like to fully understand COMEX and the how the SPOG is calculated, this seems particularly relevent at the moment. Can anyone help or at least provide a framework where I can fill in the gaps? All links will be gratefully received and read thoroughly!

     

    Hi warpig

     

    I have been trying to understand the spot price and future price differentials better too.

     

    There is a good website www.silveraxis.com and an associated blog http://silveraxis.com/todayinsilver/ written by Tom Szabo, who is doing some work on the gold and silver basis.

     

    Antale E Fekete www.professorfekete.com also has written numerous articles on the potential effect of futures contango or backwardation on the gold and silver prices. Have a look around those sites and see if there is anything of interest.

     

    What I haven't seen anywhere is truly how the Spot price of gold or silver is calculated. There are twice-daily London gold and silver spot fixes but I don't understand where the intraday spot price comes from given this isn't actually traded anywhere. Can anyone enlighten us further?

     


  21. I did come across one website of someone emigrating from South Africa !

     

    There are forums like this, which have a SA section.

    http://www.britishexpat.com/expatforum/country/index.php

     

    This is a well known one I used to be on a bit:

    http://britishexpats.com/forum/

     

    I suggest you google something like "emigration south africa forum".

     

    I do have loads of stuff on my website. Some of it like UK tax will be relevant.

     

    Ha !

    This is the guys SA website: http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~metz/nz.htm

    I think he went to NZ.

     

     

    This is a must read for all migrants

     

    Culture Shock - An interesting article on the effects of emigrating and how to help yourself.

    http://edweb.sdsu.edu/people/CGuanipa/cultshok.htm

     

    Have been away from the board for a bit Steve, but thanks for these links which I will take a look at :)

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