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Everything posted by cbs7

  1. I would hope you are right No6 - I suppose it depends how far you think the government will actually be able to contain the situation, and whether things spiral out of control. I do believe there is an element of manipulation in the gold market although I doubt it is probably quite as deliberate and planned as some believe. I do seriously think though there is a very real risk of the ETFs being confiscated or forcibly sold perhaps to purchase goverment bonds in the event of a serious crisis. To my mind it would be too tempting for a government not to "in the national interest" of course. I also believe pensions are another easy target - e.g. they will be forced to purchase 0% government bonds. To me there is little harm in having physical gold versus paper gold other than paying higher premiums so potentially reducing the amount of profit. I feel we are in a period of increasing mistrust of paper assets which was of course one of the reasons so many people invested in property and real estate, they just made the mistake of taking out paper contracts for huge amounts of debt to purchase the physical property. Also the beauty of physical gold is that it is a lot more anonymous than electronic transactions and again it is much liquid accross borders than national currencies. Yes I agree about South America, but its recent history is why I am interested - many countries there have been through the pain of a hyperinflation. Also in the case of escalating global conflict my feeling is it is a region that hasn't really gone out of its way to piss off as many other countries as possible (e.g. Russia, China, the Middle East) as in the case of the UK and US. Alternatively I would favour Asia.
  2. cbs7

    US Depression in 2010?

    This is true I suppose. What happens though if that credit does get turned into money as the Bank of England appears to have agreed to today? The real question to me is will the government force this credit to be monetised when it doesn't get repaid through borrower default? If it does we get inflation, perhaps hyperinflation. If it doesn't then I suppose we get deflation. Mish is very convincing, but I still cannot bring myself to buy government bonds which I expect would be the top performers in a deflation. I feel that physical gold will still be good in a deflation because there is no counterparty risk, it is easily portable, is liquid and is considered money all over the world.
  3. GTG, yes my feeling is that GLD and SLV are likely leasing out their physical gold and silver in some manner. I feel that if you are going to accumulate significant amounts of Gold/Silver it is a better idea to either take physical delivery or have a secure allocated account somewhere in a country that probably won't default on its debt. Good point No6 and it's something which concerns me, I'm sure some people in Weimar Germany did very well out of the hyperinflation, but look at what happened afterwards. Do you think if hyperinflation happened in the UK or US there would be a breakdown in society or a real dictatorship? If I felt this was the likely outcome of what is going to come, then I think I would actually move myself and my assets to another country over the next 18 months. This would have to be to a region of the world which was much more stable. My personal preference at the moment would be South America which I feel is still relatively cheap and yet still culturally not too dissimilar to Europe.
  4. cbs7

    UBS recapitalising again

    If I understand it rightly, there's a very dangerous assumption going on here, which is that investors are going to want to take up the offer. This probably isn't the right board to be asking the question, but is anyone else out there going to be ploughing new funds into the banks right now? I know I certainly wouldn't be putting a penny in, so who is going to come up with the 12BN that RBS are looking for. How will the market respond if they don't get the cash... I also found it hilarious when the usual analysts on Working Lunch kept on repeating "nothing here to worry savers at the bank, move along, nothing to see here...." A few minutes later in a separate discussion there was the usual warning about how risky the mining shares on the FTSE were.... Risky? In that the miners have been going up a lot more than the banks have been going down?
  5. I came across some excellent bespoke junior gold, silver, energy and other indexes here http://www.smartinvestment.ca/junior_indexes.html These are compiled over at this forum http://www.mexicomike.ca/php/phpBB2/viewforum.php?f=21
  6. cbs7

    Norman Lamont Speaks

    Completely agree. The Conservatives have always promised to match Labour's excessive spending and they have done virtually nothing to encourage personal responsibility and smaller government. They have supported all the overseas wars and played along with the falsity that there was low inflation. There is little to distinguish the Conservatives from Labour other than they may rob Paul to pay Peter rather than Peter to pay Paul... I am hugely disillisuioned with the Lib Dems who become less and less liberal, coming up with new stuff to ban and restrict by the day. I expect the Tories will get in of course next time, but I doubt they have any genuinely revolutionary ideas to wake the UK up and out of its slumber, even though this is a disappointment to me.
  7. I love Peter Schiff - I think he has a fantastic way of cutting through the BS and he has such incredible energy when conveying his message. I realise he talks his book, but he really knows how to make his point and I really admire the way he goes up against the mainstream pundits and sits through their ridicule despite being proved right over and over and over. He has the ability to get through to the "average" investor and perhaps this is how he still gets on Fox Business News despite his contrarian views.
  8. cbs7


    How does Prechter get away with permanently calling tops in Gold and then turn around and put up charts of Dow priced in gold to claim he really did get a bear market in stocks correct even though the Dow went up to a new all-time high? I don't disagree with the use of pricing the Dow in gold - it is very useful, but I find it astounding that throughout this period EWI was bearish on gold and Prechter has just conveniently skipped over this, pointing out how he was right all along on the Dow. If he thought the Dow was going to be in a bear market when priced in gold only and not nominal prices, then he should never have been bearish on gold... I just find it wrong when analysts like Precter conveniently rewrite their predictions. There's nothing wrong with being wrong in investment, in fact it's crucial to accept you have been wrong to limit your losses. But Precter reminds me of a gambler who keeps doubling up everytime he is wrong (although I don't suspect he puts his money where his mouth is), each time gold makes a new high, predicting this is the big one down. Of course one day he will be right, but those following his recommendations will be broke by then
  9. The UK government is doing it's best to increase taxes and regulation on small and especially service businesses. It started with the attempt to clobber the small tech contractors after the tech boom with equivalent tax rates of 50%+ to go with the burden and regulation of running a small business. It is now casting its net much wider to catch as many small businesses and again especially service business with new regulations. Corporation tax for small businesses is going up by 1% every year. This is incredible at a time when the UK economy is hugely dependent on the service industry, not healthy I realise, but why does the government insist on whacking its sole remaining profitable industries with higher taxes and regulations. Also see the windfall taxes imposed on oil companies extracting one of our last remaining natural resources in the North Sea. It does seem that instead it is far more profitable to speculate - e.g. capital gains taxes have been lowered - than go out and work or start a business. How long it will take though for the anglophone economies to restructure? Is there any will or desire to? Will it take a depression to make people and politicians face the reality that you have to become a productive economy with a balance of industries to really prosper. How will all those people on long-term benefits face up to the challenge when the government admits it can't afford to give them their weekly benefits?
  10. Hi Bubb This is a great thread and provides a lot of food for thought. Like you I think the US will provide great value in a year or so. The only concern I have and this would apply similarly to the UK is that given the scale of the credit bubble, surely there will be severe social problems as a result. Especially if we get hyperinflation or severe deflation (less likely I expect). But the point is would you really want to invest physically in the USA (or the UK eventually) when things get so bad? What happens when people or the politicians look around for someone to blame for example after the Weimar hyperinflation in Germany. Do you think the risk of severe social unrest, perhaps war would make the US a bad place to invest in? I really hope it doesn't come to that myself. I like the US and I would also like to buy a house eventually in the UK, but on a poltical level politicians in both countries seem intent on increasing taxes and looking for people to blame, as well as increasing surveillance and chipping away at our freedoms. If it really turns bad would you not be better off remaining invested in somewhere like Hong Kong where things are improving rather than deteriorating even if it is more expensive? I don't know the answer, perhaps we will just have to be flexible and see how things turn out.
  11. I agree Bubb. I followed up on Alf Field's work and came up with a potential a-b-c corrective count 17/03/2008 20/03/2008 A $1,011 $920 -$91 -9.0% 20/03/2008 27/03/2008 B $920 $949 $29 3.2% 27/03/2008 01/04/2008 C $949 $882 -$67 -7.1% On the April contract the figures for the decline are greater with A declining $1033.50 to $904.30 (-12.5%) and C declining $955.20 to $872 (-8.7%), giving a total 15.6% decline which would seem significant enough for a correction. The main problem I can see is that this would mean the timescale for this correction would be less than a month, although in many ways the speed of gold's fall after the BSC bailout was extremely fast so this could be the explanation. When I tried to breakdown each a-b-c wave into its 5 or 3 minor waves on the hourly chart of the April Contract I found it was impossible to keep A or C within a channel, which I would have thought would be possible when going down to this level. This makes me wonder whether there is something wrong with the count and as you say there could be a more complex correction at work.
  12. I found some useful Elliot Wave Analysis suggesting when the current correction is done, Wave 3 of 3 will launch the gold price violently higher. I've created a separate thread here http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3024
  13. cbs7

    Matt - Very funny

  14. Just saw HPC on C4 news discussing the 2.5% drop. After all my bad mouthing them, he did a good job of counter-balancing the perma-bullishness of the Savills agent (essentially "a small drop is nothing to worry about...") and was very measured in his responses and with good clear explanations of the bearish viewpoint. Incredibly though the Capital Economics guy came up with some rubbish that it would have been impossible to forsee the credit crunch. That always amazes me when I hear that as have been plenty of people warning that such a credit expansion was unsustainable for many years now. Not surprising though given the amount of rubbish that passes for economic commentary on the mainstream news media...
  15. indeed and it's the outcome of a free market. Sometimes I wonder why people accuse the BTLers of being so evil. After all if you rent you have to rent from a landlord don't you? In any free market you need 2 people to take the opposite side of the trade. Unless of course what those on HPC would prefer is that the government owned all housing and we rented off them. Don't get me wrong though, I'm relishing the idea of large falls in house prices
  16. Well spotted Bubb, nice to see prices are now yoy -ve I stopped visiting HPC except only very occassionally about 2 years ago. After a few months I found that the time spent there was not particularly productive, so I was very glad when you set up the GEI board. Although I haven't been very active since I joined due to other commitments, I've been able to start using the information here a lot more recently and find it an altogether much more constructive and useful place. Although I own no property directly myself (just a few ex-UK funds) I found the almost religious zeal of some on HPC bashing BTLers as immoral a bit much. The problem is that people invest far too much emotionally into property and this leads to overheated and pointless arguments. Yes I think HPC will become superfluous as the crash in house prices is now far too obvious for the mainstream and it will be carried through on its own momentum.
  17. cbs7


    Thanks wheelybin and dst - exactly what i was looking for! It looks like it might be a good bet to say that the price of an average UK house could eventually come down from the 700 ounces peak to 300 ounces or less. This sort of thing really makes me consider if all the cash I have earmarked specifically for a house ought to just go 100% into gold bullion as whatever the price of gold does I might reasonably expect that if I have 300 ounces of gold at some point I will be able to buy a house with that or even less perhaps! There are some similar charts I just came across for the US housing market here http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php It's a bit strange because the chart for the US suggests the peak for housing in ounces of gold was back around 2000-01 rather than during the more manic phase later 2003-05
  18. cbs7


    Sorry to interrupt the thread but does anyone know where I could download the historical price of Gold in pounds sterling? I would like for as far back as is possible and monthly data would be fine. I'm looking to plot average UK house prices when priced in Gold to see if there is a historical average/trend. Perhaps this has already been done on HPC or here, but otherwise I think it would be very interesting Thanks!
  19. cbs7


    what are the options for investing in Gallium? don't think there is an ETF for this one yet
  20. cbs7

    $160 Oil This Week

    Good interview Frizzers. Although Zapata George's prediction seems extreme I've found when I've listened to him previously that he doesn't do hype for the sake of it. He looks at the fundamentals and I like his idea that fundamentals will always prevail ultimately. I use this idea to keep me strong when investing and watching sharps corrections such as the recent one in gold and silver. If I remember rightly he called the bottom of the drop in crude from $80 last year the same week on Jim Puplava's show. I think his prediction should be given credibility although whether it plays is yet to be seen. We seem to be experiencing squeezes in many commoditities currently - e.g. silver, wheat, corn. Something I've noticed round where I live (Cambridge) is that around Xmas and the New Year lots of petrol stations kept having cones lined up outside stopping cars coming in. One evening I needed to fill up my car and the only station that didn't have any cones was turning everyone away. At the time I did think perhaps we were starting to see the pressure on supply. Of course this is only anecdotal and I've not seen it again for a while. Has anyone else noticed problems like this in their area? Jim Puplava has also predicted a time when there will be shortages and people won't be worrying about the price, rather whether they can get it at all!
  21. cbs7


    Hi Justin, that's nearly a 6% premium which although is quite a lot isn't so excessive for physical silver. Unfortunately if you do want allocated physical silver you will have to pay the premiums. If you do get a large enough holding with Goldmoney you can get member's rates which have about 1-2% less premium on the physical purchases, but you need to build up your holding with them.
  22. cbs7

    Bear Stearns on Life Support

    Just been thinking about if ML goes bust, what would happen to any of the funds they run. In particular Merill Lynch Gold and General which I own a lot of! Am I naively assuming that these funds are set up as separate legal entities and their only job is to purchase and sell the securities they are invested in? So in the event that ML went bust, the fund would still operate normally? Does anyone know the answer, else I'll have to find the prospectus and trawl through the small print
  23. cbs7


    It seems that it wasn't bad enough for Gordo to sell off 1/2 the UK's gold, but that some of the gold we do have left may not even be the real deal All that glisters may not be gold I came across this when researching fake tungsten coins. Tungsten has almost the same specific density as gold and it looks like the BoE may have ended up with some dud bars...
  24. Thanks walden - I've bookmarked that site Scouring around a bit more I've come across this drill results calculator and instructions on How to convert drill results into ounces tutorial. I'll give it a whirl and see what it comes up with.
  25. Hi all I've been lurking around for quite a while and slowly building up core positions in precious metals and major mining shares. I'm now looking to understand the junior mining sector a bit better as there is clearly great potential. However, I don't really have a background in anaylsing the resource sector, so I'm wondering how do I go about trying to understand the technical details such as the release of drill results. Is there a dummies guide anywhere on the web that is useful for those starting out? I recently started checking out minesite and look at this site quite a lot but I do have constraints on the time I can dedicate to this, so for example I am interested in Fortuna Silver Mines (FVI.V) and I get daily emails now from golddrivers.com. One from yesterday has this news about FVI, but the problem is I don't really understand whether those results are good, bad or neutral. Any help and advice is hugely appreciated! --- VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - March 10, 2008) - Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (TSX VENTURE:FVI - News) is pleased to announce the discovery of high grade silver mineralization along the extension of the Bateas Vein located in the central portion of the Caylloma District, Arequipa, Peru. Fortuna operates the 100% owned Caylloma Zn-Pb-Ag Mine at a nominal rate of 820 tpd with production currently sourced primarily from the Animas and Santa Cata veins. Eleven drill holes totaling 4,380m have been completed to-date in the eastern extension of the Bateas Vein, one of several silver-rich veins located in the central portion of the Caylloma District. Highlights of the current results include: - Hole BATS001707 cut 6,231 g/t Ag, 3.56% Pb, 4.85% Zn and 3.08% Cu over 7.35m from 340.55m (est. true thickness of 1.57m), including: - 30,170 g/t Ag, 5.95% Pb, 6.68% Zn and 9.01% Cu over 0.45m from 343.55m, and - 11,029 g/t Ag, 5.12% Pb, 6.96% Zn and 6.46% Cu over 0.90m from 344.70m, and - 24,487 g/t Ag, 8.43% Pb, 9.98% Zn and 9.45% Cu over 0.65m from 346.05m. - Hole BATS000207 intersected 1,008 g/t Ag over 1.35m from 200m (est. true thickness 0.46m). Assay results from the drill holes are summarized in the table below. Length-weighted assay averages have been calculated for the mineralized intervals using a lower cut-off of 100 g/t Ag. Estimated true widths of the veins are indicated in the table for each of the major intercepts. A longitudinal section showing the location of the drill hole intercepts will be posted on Fortuna's website at www.fortunasilver.com. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Estim- ated True Thick- From Interval ness Ag Au Pb Zn Cu Hole No. (m) To (m) (m) (m) (g/t) (g/t) (%) (%) (%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BATS001707 334.15 335.30 1.15 0.25 497 0.03 1.56 2.63 1.02 340.55 347.90 7.35 1.57 6,231 0.14 3.56 4.85 3.08 including 343.55 344.00 0.45 30,170 0.18 5.95 6.68 9.01 and 344.70 345.60 0.90 11,029 0.29 5.12 6.96 6.46 and 346.05 346.70 0.65 24,487 0.53 8.43 9.98 9.45 BATS001607 133.30 133.70 0.40 0.19 188 0.09 0.01 0.01 - 189.60 189.95 0.35 0.16 295 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.16 BATS000908 323.90 325.60 1.70 1.16 259 0.02 1.31 1.46 0.58 BATS000808 381.38 384.40 3.02 0.72 133 0.02 0.26 0.18 0.11 BATS000707 293.05 294.70 1.65 1.19 131 0.03 0.21 0.21 0.23 296.30 296.60 0.30 0.22 494 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.13 BATS000607 No significant mineralized intervals BATS000507 258.10 258.40 0.30 0.15 104 0.31 4.84 2.40 0.01 BATS000407 235.95 236.50 0.55 0.26 91 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.00 BATS000307 365.20 366.15 0.95 0.35 840 0.06 0.42 0.85 0.35 BATS000207 200.00 201.35 1.35 0.46 1,008 0.27 0.01 0.02 0.04 BATS000107 246.55 247.35 0.80 0.23 138 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.01