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Everything posted by cbs7

  1. cbs7


    Didn't the bubble burst in this with the dot com crash? I suspect we could see a resurgence if the public cotton on to the fact that they can speculate on rising commodity prices through spread betting or ETFs. With the service industry in decline in places like the US and UK it may be seen as the only way of "keeping up" with price inflation. I don't think we are there yet, but it might come.
  2. cbs7

    Getting into Debt

    It might be viable if you can get it on a fixed rate for as long as you need to service the debt. e.g. In the USA 25-30 year fixed rate mortgages were always the norm for funding a house purchase, but not common enough in the UK. My personal feeling is something like this could be viable if you could get a loan around or less than 6% for at least 10 years. I would avoid variable rate as these could rocket regardless of whatever interest rates central banks attempt to set. Investing in land would be fairly sensible, but where are you thinking? In the UK land prices have a long way to fall.
  3. cbs7

    Can someone interpret this?

    True, but remember nothing moves in a straight line up or down and bear market rallies can be very sharp. I think he is implying that the overall trend is down, and any coming rally will be the time to sell any remaining stock - just my interpretation!
  4. cbs7


    That is just so blatant it is incredible, but doesn't surprise me one bit. Whatever the FSA say please remember these guys are bookies and Gambling Law in the UK recognises gambling as a grey area of law which is why gambling debts are not enforceable.
  5. Am thinking of taking out a subscription to help get into anaylsing mining stocks more easily. I also like David Morgan whenever I hear him as he seems very level headed and straightforward. Is anyone here a subscriber and would they recommend his Silver Report?
  6. Just Adam Hamilton's Zeal Intelligence which is pretty good on analysis although I'm not sure his trading picks are amazing. I read his free content for years and felt it was excellent and thought it was worth giving his monthly letter a go. His trading track record in the 2000-03 bear market is pretty good so maybe he will start getting better results from now on Just by chance I've also received an offer from Casey Research today which is another one I've had my eye for a while - he's offering both the International Speculator and The Casey Report for the price of one. Have you any experience with any of Casey's publications? If anyone wants the link let me know.
  7. cbs7


    I hadn't noticed that myself, but it's yet another nail in the coffin for using SBs for serious investing. I think the promise of tax-free gains is very appealing, but the risks are just not worth it to me. Given this security hole it's easier for them then to claim their data feeds occassionally "make mistakes" and i'm sure in the T&Cs it's buried away that they aren't liable, blah, blah, blah...
  8. cbs7


    True, but we know how well funded these compensation schemes are... and i imagine in the event of a system shock spread betting clients will get less sympathy, and therefore less likely to be bailed out by the taxpayer / investigated by the FSA. I have heard about and also seen this type of manipulation live so I don't think that these are isolated cases. Security on spread betting accounts in my experience is also minimal - when I have rung up all they need is my username and my name - not much else and off you go. I'm not wholly against spreadbetting, but I think the systems are too flaky for any sizeable trading or anything too leveraged. I will use it on occassions for an easy quick trade but not for anything serious, as whatever the FSA say for me they are just a bunch of bookies which means generally they will do things ok, but where it is to their advantage or disadvantage, I suspect there is some manipulation, especially running the stop losses.
  9. cbs7


    I really would advise against spread betting for long-term positions. Please remember that in the UK gambling debts are not legally enforceable so there is a good chance in an extreme event any gains you make you could lose if the the firm or its systems fail in any way. Precious Metals will be extremely volatile and I make sure that all my core positions are 100% unleveraged and 100% owned. If you want to take a long term view buy the shares / metal / whatever it is directly and then you know you own what you own. For lower-risk leveraged short term trade options or double-long/short ETFs would be preferable in my view.
  10. cbs7


    Nice to see you on GEI ED, last time I saw you was ripping apart property bulls on Singing Pig. I must read the Lefevre book, by chance while searching for it via google I came across the following download of it if it's of any use to anyone http://www.stockvision.ru/books/Edwin_Lefe...Operator-EN.pdf
  11. cbs7

    Revised deposit protection scheme

    It's sometimes amazing with all the spin and outright lying in the mainstream media, to see straightforward and truthful statements like this appear.
  12. cbs7


    Interactive Brokers is sooo much cheaper and I dare to say even fairly stable (have a look at their share price history compared to most other brokers). The interface has improved a lot though it is still orientated to professional traders so it takes some time to get used to. Customer Service is ok, but not particularly fast. Trades in currencies outside your base currency (GBP in my case) are debited from your balance in that currency. So you actually have to purchase USD or CAD or EUR in currency trades yourself otherwise you run a debit balance and get charged interest. All of this is confusing to start with if you are used to a typical UK broker who normally converts foreign currency into GBP equivalent (while screwing you on the conversion), but you do get used to it. You also enter orders directly into the market which again gives you a lot more control over your trading. I recommend them if you are prepared to take some time to learn the interface.
  13. Maybe this should be moved to the Mining or Beginners section but will try seasoning here on the main forum first. How should an investor go about valuing inferred resources? Is there a typical discount that is sensible to apply? I am trying to calculate "in situ" value for Golden Tag Resources San Diego project which has 370,852 tonnes indicated with a gross metal value of $150 / tonne 4,976,461 tonnes inferred with a gross metal value of $100 / tonne I was thinking of a 50% discount on the inferred figure, but I really have no experience so any comments appreciated. Thanks
  14. cbs7

    Pinetree Capital (PNP)

    I am interested in this PP. The press release says that Canaccord Capital Corporation and Thomas Weisel Partners Canada Inc are the agents carrying out the PP. Does anyone know if that means I would need to open a brokerage account with either of these? I will contact them anyway, but I've not been involved in a PP before so would appreciate any feedback from anyone with experience. From what I remember Bubb uses Cannacord and has had good experiences of them
  15. cbs7

    Revised deposit protection scheme

    Impossible to fund it up front as the banks and the government are broke. In a fractional-reserve lending environment it is simply impossible and stupid for the government to insist on providing deposit protection at anything beyond a very low level.
  16. Thanks for the details CR. My opinion / guess (?!) is that ETFs will for the most part be ok barring a total collapse of the financial system and stock exchanges. I personally feel (and hope) that it won't quite get to that. The main issue I see with ETFs is that they will be untradeable during an extreme event, either for lack of liquidity or enforced banking hoildays, so you may not have access to your investments for a long period. My understanding is that the stock exchanges closed for several weeks on the outbreak of WW1. Physical gold and silver in your possession is very liquid of course but security can be an issue depending on how much you have. I personally think it is also good to get geographical diversification away from the country you live in even though that inevitably means you don't have the gold or silver to hand. I personally think Goldmoney is an excellent way of achieving this.
  17. cbs7


    Sounds like a good idea. I use a discount broker and make my own investment decisions but I would be keen to understand how a specialist broker might help particularly if they are specialists in the commodity secor
  18. cbs7

    The Euro is going to $1.62

    There is a fairly new Market Vectors Chinese Renminbi ETN traded on the US stock sxchange (symbol CNY). Please note that it is issued by Morgan Stanley so and as an ETN (not ETF) it also carries the issuer default risk. I own a very little of this now to give me some more currency diversification
  19. True I think that on balance many juniors are probably a better bet overall. However in a huge bull market in gold (if we get it) which includes broad public participation, then rare coins will probably start getting valued at significant premiums over their metal content. But it is a big if...
  20. There is a UK fund Avarae Global Coins (AVR.L) which holds a portfolio of rare coins. It seems to be carving out a bottom in a similar way that junior mining shares are. If gold really takes off like the juniors it could also do very well. *Disclosure - I bought into this share very recently, so I'm biased *
  21. It's true, I have the same feelings. However these core savings are specifically set aside for a property purchase, so to be comfortable I feel I need to keep an element in cash. The "safest" way I can think of doing this in the UK is to lend to the government and although I am very aware that the CPI is very manipulated and therefore the RPI is probably very manipulated too, they do reflect to *some* measure the rate of inflation. I don't particularly like lending to the UK government, but I think if I had 100% in precious metals I would get far too worried about any volatility in the price of gold and silver. The index-lined bonds can also be redeemed at any time (despite their name) so I feel I have some ability to get to the funds if things really turn bad. I am also trying to inflation-proof and protect my other savings and investments further, and this includes further additional investments in gold, silver, mining, energy, property overseas, and other currencies, so the 50-25-25 split is solely for my core savings. Just my way of approaching the problem, but I can completly understand that many people will want to opt for a much higher ratio of precious metals. My basic rule is to try and understand what I am doing and why I am doing it. This way I won't get frightened out of my positions too early.
  22. In my opinion true monetary deflation only has a 30% chance at this stage. I strongly suspect that western governments will wholly favour maintaining nominal asset price values so they will pump the money supply to achieve this. There will still be some nominal falls in property and the stock market, but the problems these will cause for over-leveraged consumers and governments mean that the response is likely to turn on the taps to favour bail outs. Real deflation in money supply is possible and in my mind it can only happen if there are widespread defaults and bankruptcies, especially in the banking sector. This would have the effect of destroying money as banks are the creators of new money through new loans and mortages. However it will surely be politically unpalatable for most politicians to allow banks to go under and not bail out depositors, so new money will have to be printed to compensate the depositors, as the financial compensation schemes already in existence have virtually zero assets to back them up. So to get real deflation banks will have to fail and there would have to be no or very little compensation for depositors. In this scenario gold will suffer, although less than most assets. For example you could expect the stock market and property to fall 50-75% as a minimum and gold might fall 25-50%, so gold would still increase its purchasing power. Cash of course would in theory not fall in value so it would be the best asset class. However, the question is would cash survive this? For example if the currency even survives this period, if your cash was in the bank you would have a serious risk that the bank goes under and you lose all your cash. You could keep the cash in a suitcase at home or purchase government bonds or course but if the deflation doesn't happen and we get high or hyper-inflation then these will end up as terrible investments. Also there is the risk that in a severe deflation the government could default on its bonds. My solution to this is that I hold a core position in physical gold and silver as well as inflation-linked tax free governement bonds. I figure out that overall this is the best trade off to protect my core savings. My ratio is 50% index-linked bonds (tax free and interest payments tied to the UK RPI), 25% physical gold and 25% physical silver.
  23. OK, maybe I am naive, but aren't ETFs slightly different to ETNs. My understanding is that ETNs are indeed subject to issuer risk but that ETFs are not subject to issuer risk and do not consitute part of the assets of the issuer. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm not talking about a full-blown SHTF scenario where the whole financial system grinds to a halt or where a country starts to impose capital controls. In this case yes ETFs will be affected. However if we are talking simply about a single company going bankrupt then don't ETFs simply carry on tracking the underlying commodities because they are like a mutual fund and hold their own assets, whereas an ETN would form part of the issuer's assets. I haven't checked any prospectuses on this, but it just my initial feeling. I should really do some proper DD, but if anyone has checked this it would be useful to know.
  24. I just use the Daily Email Digest for threads that I am particularly interested in and the Weekly option for other slower topics, but this suits the time that I have avaialble. I rarely get a chance to come on GEI more than once a day
  25. cbs7

    Wife sitting on cash.

    There are some beautiful bullion products which she may like here http://www.goldavenue.com/Bullion.aspx?CALL=353837 I haven't worked out the premium over spot but I'm guessing it's higher than for coins, however you might find it is a good way to introduce her to the beauty of bullion and these will retain their precious metal value much better than ordinary gold jewellery I imagine