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AceofKY

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Everything posted by AceofKY

  1. AceofKY

    Rio Narcea

    Lundin hasn't got the tenders and is extending their offer. They'll have to raise the bid to get enough tenders. Well over 100% of outstanding shares have traded since the offer, most of which traded above the offer price. http://www.kitco.com/pr/1267/article_05292007173246.pdf The question is: will they raise the bid or will they continually extend the offer in an attempt to wear shareholders down (similar to Barrick's unsuccessful bid for Novagold)? I'm content to wait it out. Most of my shares were purchased in August thru October of last year. The stock price has a floor now, and I'd rather not pay short term capital gains taxes on my 130% gains. And I am having difficulty finding new opportunities to meet my criteria (share price trading at 40% discount to calculated intrinsic value). I looked at Semafo (SMF) pretty hard over the weekend, but DD revealed it needs to fall some more before I'll get interested.
  2. Newtonian physics are very instrumental for use in everyday life unless you're studying matter at very high velocity. I use his laws of physics every day in my job as an engineer (I have never used Einsteinian physics or quantum physics in my field), with full knowledge that they are merely instrumental and not "true." I have no more faith in Einsteinian physics or quantum physics; they are merely instrumental in their own respective spheres. Lots of philosophers have also tried to prove the existence of themselves unsuccessfully (as you have pointed out). That doesn't mean they don't exist, and it similarly doesn't mean that the existence of God can't be inferred from his creation even though no one has developed a formal logic to do so that satisfies your criterion of logic. I would be interested in hearing your opinion on John Henry Newman. I would not characterize his assent to belief as the "leap" of faith that you are talking about.
  3. Ah, your fellow countryman Isaac Newton would be very disappointed to hear this considering it was his great task to show that God is the origin of the universe and natural phenomena. Are you familiar with the work of that other great Englishman, John Henry Newman, on epistemology? If so, what do you think of his argument for faith based on conscience?
  4. AceofKY

    Dynasty Metals & Mining

    Sorry, I can't respond to the PM for an unknown reason. For some reason I have to continuously log in even if I never close out my browser window. I googled Robert Washer when doing DD on Dynasty. Frankly, I couldn't find much on him beyond his bio on Dynasty's website: "Mr. Washer has 29 years experience in the mining industry and has been involved in the construction of five gold processing plants (four Carbon in Pulp "CIP" and one alluvial). Mr. Washer has also been directly involved in discovering and/or opening 6 gold mines and locating a new gold field in Ecuador. He was also responsible for the financing and construction of a 2 million tonne per annum gold processing plant in Western Australia and has developed a number of mines on his own prospects. These ultimately produced approximately 100,000 oz of gold per year. Mr. Washer was chairman of the board of directors and major shareholder of AVATAR Petroleum Inc, an oil production company listed on the TSX Venture Exchange, which held 30% interest in the Tiguino Oilfield in Ecuador." It looked like Avatar got bought out by Viceroy Resources back in 03 but I'm not sure about the circumstances. I thought the Board of Directors looked pretty competent, although I have a concern that Washer likely dominates the BOD due to his outsized shareholding in Dynasty. Here is the link to the Board of Directors: http://www.dynastymining.com/management/index.php The wild card is still Ecuador. I figured since they went ahead and gave Dynasty the permit we at least won't be stuck in limbo forever like Crystallex. I'm sure they'll probably increase the taxation or institute some type of royalty, but I've built in 40% taxes into my cash flow model and this company still looks like a steal. As long as they don't nationalize the assets Dynasty should thrive.
  5. AceofKY

    Dynasty Metals & Mining

    Please describe your concerns with regard to management so I'm not in the dark. I sent an email this weekend requesting that they let me know the next couple of trade conferences Washer will be attending. I've got a small position so far but probably won't increase it much until I meet him in person. Thanks, Ace
  6. AceofKY

    Dynasty Metals & Mining

    I forgot to mention that all of Dynasty's properties are within a 150km radius of IAMGold's Quimsacocha project. Quimsacocha only has ~3.4M oz of M&I gold (at 3.2grams/tonne), so if Dynasty continues to prove up resources without the share price responding they will likely become a takeover target. Depending on IAMGold's timeline for developing the Quimsacocha mine, the cashflow from Zaruma could potentially finance the Quimsacocha project without moving any cash into or out of Ecuador. Ace
  7. AceofKY

    UC Resources

    I'm considering throwing some gambling money at this explorer. I like their plan to utilize small mills to get enough cash flow to finance exploration without continually diluting the stock, and their properties look interesting. Dr. B or Frizzers (or anyone else): Have you met the CEO Richard Hamelin? If so what is your impression of him? I think he used to be with ECU silver. http://www.ucresources.net
  8. AceofKY

    UC Resources

    I'm glad you mentioned director ownership of shares, as I'm on a personal mission to never again invest in a company that management doesn't invest in. That's usually one of the things I look for first, but for some reason I got lost in the glitz and glamour of their fancy website (it's probably the best junior website I've seen) and forgot to look up share ownership. Here's what I found from the Management Information Circular filed on SEDAR Dec 15, 2006, just prior to the annual meeting: 10% Shareholders: (there's only one) CDS & Co (NCI) - owns an astounding 86% of the company, and "The beneficial owners of CDS & Co are not known." How can you not know who the 86% share owner is? Board of Directors shares owned or controlled: Richard Hamelin, CEO - Nil Gregg Roberts - 200,000 Gary Monaghan - Nil Bruno Weiss - Nil Neil Novak - Nil This doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence. I think I'll avoid this stock. Anyway, I think there's no way they can ramp up to 1000 tpd by the end of this year. Even if they could, there's no real official reserves and the known tailings resource would last less than a year at that rate. They need to prove up some resources to drive the stock price higher. I think I'll take a pass on this one. Thanks for your help, Ace
  9. AceofKY

    THE GREEN ENERGY GOLD MINING INDEX

    Frizzers, I have a proposal that would add a little twist onto the Schultz index. How about starting an index with the gold miners in which management and the board of directors own large amounts of the stock (and I'm talking actual shares - not unexercised options). I am very skeptical (after having been screwed over a couple times) of these mining companies where management owns less than 1% of shares. This would require some research on my part, but it's really something I've been wanting to do anyway. Perhaps I could get it up on a spreadsheet on the web so it can be viewed and compared against indices like the HUI. Check out the following spreadsheet prepared by one of our posters on a Rio Narcea messageboard; this was a contest we started back in January: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p_H...3lu1SKTVZY6lBfA
  10. AceofKY

    What is inflation?

    I think you might be confused regarding the Austrian view of inflation. It has been many years since I last read Von Mises, but as I recall it he DEFINES inflation as an increase in the money supply. He does not say that there is in general a strictly proportional increase in prices with an increase in the money supply. As you pointed out, an increase in the money supply doesn't necessarily lead to rising prices (which depends on other factors in addition to the money supply). Ceterus paribus (i.e. - all else being equal), inflation (i.e. - an increase in the money supply) will cause an increase in prices, but I don't recall him ever attempting to apply a formula to this relationship. Ace
  11. AceofKY

    Rio Narcea

    RNO management has recommended selling out to Lundin on the cheap. See the attached article by Toby Hansen (known as "Tobinator" online.) Toby got me interested in RNO in august of last year and it was my largest holding for a while. http://montyhigh.typepad.com/world_of_wall...elProducers.pdf I'm not quite as bullish as Toby is on RNO's future prospects, but I agree with him that we should have gotten a better takeover premium. Anyone have any idea why management would sell out so cheaply?
  12. I'm thinking I might pick up some Tamerlane Ventures before the feasibility study comes out. Not sure if I should wait for a pullback or not...
  13. Be careful with Canadian Zinc. I talked with management at PDAC. They don't own any shares (other than some that they trade with - one of the top dogs is a chartist) and aren't planning on buying any. They don't seem like serious miners to me. I suspect they're just in for the gamble and will sell the operation once it's fully permitted (if that ever happens). Breakwater is a good, pure zinc play. Their shares have appreciated substantially, however, over the past year. According to my figures, they are close to fully valued now with a long term zinc price of $1/lb. A lot depends on cash costs going forward which have been very hard to get a handle on (I have $0.6/lb in my spreadsheet). Supposedly the contracts with the smelters are going to be renegotiated in favor of the miners which could improve this. Good luck, Ace
  14. AceofKY

    Carbon Offsetting

    First, a technicality with respect to indulgences. Indulgences were never about "selling forgiveness" or "allowing those about to sin to purchase their forgiveness in advance." An indulgence is a remission of the temporal punishment due to sin. The granting of an indulgence presupposes that forgiveness (which comes from God) has already been granted. There are some important theological differences here, although this is probably not the forum to go into detail on the issue. With respect to carbon offsetting, I'm not sure that your intended analogy holds. I think we can all agree that the mere utilization of fossil fuels (i.e. - the "object" of the action in terms of moral theology) is not intrinsically evil. If it was, then it would never be permissible to, for example, start a coal fire in your home fireplace to keep your family warm through the winter. Furthermore I think we can agree that the intention (i.e. - the "end" of the action) with respect to using fossil fuels is not evil. No one wants to cause global warming. The intentions are usually good - like providing inexpensive power to the populace. Thus, if the generation of carbon dioxide by means of burning fossil fuel is considered to be evil, it must be because of the circumstances surrounding the action. If the global warming advocates are correct that 1) man is causing global warming and 2) global warming is harmful, then I could understand that large scale production of carbon dioxide would be considered unethical. Frankly, I don't really know whether this is the case or not...too many conflicting "scientific" opinions. There are any number of individual circumstances that could swing the ethical argument in a particular case (such as a plant manager who removes a control device in an attempt to maximize profits at the expense of the environment), but the overall effect of global warming (if it is really being caused by man) is due to the sum of many actions/processes that, taken individually, are not morally problematic. This seems to be the problem that carbon offsetting is trying to tackle. I'm not convinced of the usefulness of carbon offsetting yet, but I don't think the analogy to the sale of indulgences is a good one. Ace
  15. AceofKY

    SILVER

    High River Gold has a massive high grade silver resource in Russia. We ate dinner with one of their geologists at PDAC. They have (or will have later this year) enough gold production, however, that the leverage to silver price probably wouldn't be that significant. Lots of country risk also, I believe, although a couple people at PDAC tried to convince me that Russia is safe for investment now. The geologist we ate with works in Burkina Faso (sp?). He said he feels perfectly safe in that country. I have avoided investing in Africa for the most part, although I did invest quite a bit in Rio Narcea last year (which is starting to pay off finally). Rio has a gold mine in Mauritania that will be starting up this year. The thing that I question about silver is....isn't there a massive amount of supply coming online in the next few years? I see all these base metal companies building these huge mines where silver is a byproduct. Then you have the Penasquitos and Prognoz's that will be hitting the market in a few years. How long can silver prices stay high if production increases?
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