One Central Residences - Macau's Best Building?
Prices driven lower by economy & over-supply
(this is the: http://tinyurl.com/1central1 thread) / see: 1c2
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One Central Residences Macau ... Macau 3D map

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Shun Tak reaps $6b at luxury Macau homes

Danny Chung / Thursday, February 01, 2007

Shun Tak Holdings (0242) said more than HK$6 billion has been generated from sales of One Central Residences, the company's joint-venture luxury residential project in Macau with Hongkong Land.
About 90 percent of the apartments have been sold, the company said.

General manager for property sales Warren Leung Cheuk-hang told a radio show Wednesday, that the developers have sold about 700 units at an average selling price of HK$5,000 per square foot.

Some units sold for as much as HK$6,300 psf.

(Shun Tak Holdings Ltd. and Hongkong Land Ltd. sold all 800 apartments at One Central Residence, a luxury real estate project on the Macau peninsula, at an average price of about HK$5,000 per square foot. The apartments are scheduled to be finished in 2009. )

One Central Residences, which has 796 units in total, kicked off sales early last November when it sold an entire block of 68 flats to an insurance company from Iceland for HK$782 million, or about HK$4,400 psf.

/more: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=437999
==

Originally Posted by ChauTauVillager

"Evaluating the prospects for the property market in Macau, Leung pointed out local Macau residents accounted for between 10 percent and 20 percent of all residential transactions last year.

- He is right, not many local people can afford it."





/see: http://www.onecentral.com.mo/en/design/index.htm (as drbubb2, b...#. )

I would rank macau's high-end properties as follows, 1 being the best: (link #1, below)
1: One Central
2: One Grantai
3: Royal Arc / "Hoisun Mun"
4: Windsor Arch
5: The Buckingham


= = =
LINKS:
To This Thread : http://tinyurl.com/1central1 / SC: http://tinyurl.com/1central2
One Central.... : http://www.onecentral.com.mo/en/news/index.htm
Floorplans....... : http://www.onecentral.com.mo/en/layout/floorplan.htm
3-D Macau Map.. : http://macau.o.cn/?locale=zh_tw
Macau/HK Bridge : http://www.thb.gov.hk/eng/policy/transport...3_200810291.jpg
ForSale Cent.21.. : http://www.macauhotproperty.com/residentia...;current_page=1
SkyS.City thread : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=437999
Skyscraper more : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=404
Macau Forum... : http://www.topix.com/forum/world/macau/T1KDA5SI0S12E21FD
M. business..... : http://www.macaubusiness.com/AllCategory.asp?categoryID=3

High-end Property Prices Halve: Investors Leave Market from Square One
Author: melody

Property==== : (late 2007.) (current.11/08) : Change

One Grantai. : MOP$8,000... MOP$4,000-5,500 : -50.0%
One Central. : $8,000-8,500 MOP$4,000-5,000 : -50.0%
Le Royal Arc. : $6,000-6,500 MOP$3,500-4,500 : -41.7%
Nova City..... : $3,000-3,500 MOP$1,900-2,500 : -36.7%
La Cité......... : $3,400-3,500 MOP$1,800-2,300 : -40.0%

While One Central sold at MOP$8,000/feet2 when the property market was high, its prices have dropped 50% and units are now available at about MOP$4,000/feet2. Some property dealers point out, however, that since the said property has a relatively long completion period, during which time its price has risen substantially, investors who do not wish to own the property can sell before the completion of the property at a price that puts them on the positive side of the deal, thus aggravating the fall in prices. These are believed to be isolated cases that do not trigger a chain effect. However, some agents claim that since the prices of One Central - the benchmark for the high-end property market - has halved, other properties will inevitably follow suit.

According to Cheong Iat Fai, CEO of Midland Macau, although the square foot price of One Central has fallen back to its initial level of late 2005 this is merely an individual incident and does not properly reflect the status quo of the luxury property market.

Ku Ga Hou, President and General Manager of Jones Lang LaSalle Macau, points out that apart from Blocks IV and VI, which have been purchased wholesale by certain funds, the remaining five blocks of One Central are all available for retail sale. Given that the initial square foot price was MOP$4,200-4,300, if a property is sold at MOP$4,500/feet2 now it still enters positive territory. Those buyers who are worried about market prospects and do not want to own the property may wish to sell and leave the market.

According to Cheong Iat Fai, One Central has attracted numerous foreign owners who may well sell their overseas properties such as those in One Central in the economic downturn. Moreover, since there is still one year to go before the property is completed investors who do not wish to own under current economic conditions are likely to sell their property at a low price as long as it does not incur a loss. Since One Central has a longer than normal construction period, and with prices having risen substantially over the past two years, even if investors sell at about MOP$4,000/feet2, they may still make a little profit or leave the market unscathed.

/see: http://www.vproperty.mo/macau-property-new...rom-square-one/

MPO also owns 18,500m2 of residential space in One Central Residences, the residential portion of the One Central premium mixed-use development. MPO's investment comprises a 40-storey luxury residential tower (Tower 6), bought in November 2006, and 24 units in other towers, which were purchased in a series of individual deals in the second half of 2007.


23 Feb 2009 ... Macau Property Opportunity Fund Limited recently purchased 24 residential units from One Central Macau Residences following the company's ....

== ==

#2/
"Investment properties

The external envelope of One Central Residences is now complete and the internal fitting-out works for both the residential and retail portions are proceeding. The whole project is on schedule for completion by the end of 2009.

The current market sentiment has had a serious negative impact on pricing of One Central's residential units which has become the key benchmark for super luxury properties in Macau. These price drops, however, are based on extremely low transaction volume and seemingly driven by a few distressed sellers. On the positive side, many developers have delayed launches and development of new projects. As a result, on its completion in 2009, we believe that One Central will be the first and only such property in the market for some considerable time.
Following the in-principle loan agreement for MPO's remaining obligation in One Central signed in mid-2008, we are continuing to progress the legal documentation process with our banks and lawyers. This is nearing completion and we currently anticipate that the loan agreement in its final form will be ready for signing in Q1 2009. Discussions with banks regarding construction financing for MPO redevelopment projects have proven to be positive and these facilities shall be progressed further as planning approvals are received."

/more: http://miranda.hemscott.com/servlet/HsPubl...form=news_story

#3/
Loan Facility Signed (for One Central development)

On 27 June 2008, Macau Property Opportunities Fund Limited, managed by Sniper Capital Limited, announced that it had agreed terms for a club loan facility of HK$642.82 million (c.US$83 million) with a consortium of international and Macanese Banks, led by HSBC. The loan was subject to final documentation and today MPO announces the successful conclusion and signing of the Loan Facility Agreement.

The debt facility will be used to finance the remaining consideration for Tower 6 and the 25 individual units acquired by the Company in One Central Residences, Macau's premier luxury residential development currently under construction. Drawdown of the loan will be upon handover of the project, expected by the end of 2009.

The loan will be secured by means of a first registered legal mortgage over all the residential units owned by the Company at One Central Residences. The term of the loan is to 30 September 2012, with drawdown to be made no later than 30 December 2009. Due to tightening credit conditions, interest will be charged at 3-month HIBOR plus 2.4% per annum, 1% higher than originally indicated. The facility is to be repaid in four half-yearly instalments commencing 30 March 2011, or 15 months from the date of drawdown, whichever is earlier, with 65% of the principal due on the final repayment date. The loan-to-value covenant specified in the documentation is 55%. The Company continues to adopt a highly measured cash management policy retaining a strong and prudent balance sheet with a current cash balance in excess of US$47 million.

In addition to this facility, the Company is in ongoing discussions with respect to construction financing for its development projects. To date, these discussions have proven to be positive and the facilities will be progressed further as planning approvals are received. Further details will be announced in due course.

David Hinde, Chairman of MPO said: "The debt markets have deteriorated significantly since last June when terms of the loan were initially announced and we are very pleased that the Company has successfully secured financing for this exceptional project. This clearly reflects the strong relationship MPO has developed with HSBC and a number of other banking organisations, as well as the premium quality and positioning of One Central Residences."

/see: http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/securit...91587&rns=1

MPO more: http://www.mpofund.com/news-media2008-03.htm

Gambling Heiress Bets on Macau's Recovery
Pansy Ho Strikes Deals With Partners to Expand Shun Tak

By CARLOS TEJADA
At a time when Macau faces an uncertain hand, Pansy Ho is placing bets on the Chinese gambling enclave's future.


Reuters: Pansy Ho

Ms. Ho, the 45-year-old daughter of Macau gambling magnate Stanley Ho, and her family face a difficult environment. The global recession is eating into demand from well-todo gamblers that casino operators depend on. Meanwhile, officials in mainland China have restricted the ability of some Chinese nationals to visit the city. The combination has led to drops in monthly gross gambling revenue for the first time in years -- in December, it fell 5.7% from a year earlier to 7.75 billion Macau patacas, or roughly US$970 million.

Longer-term, the Ho family is contending with rising competition from U.S.-based casino operators. Mr. Ho held a monopoly on the special administrative region of China until 2002, but his casinos have steadily lost market share to well-funded rivals with newer casinos.

Within that environment, Ms. Ho is making long-range plans to expand the family business and her own reach. As managing director of Shun Tak Holdings Ltd., a real-estate and transportation company controlled by the Ho family, she recently struck a preliminary agreement with a Dubai partner to build a new hotel in Macau's once-booming Cotai area.

Separately from Shun Tak, her joint venture with U.S. casino operator MGM Mirage remains in talks with Macau officials about building a second casino in Cotai, a spokeswoman for the venture said.

Long-term development could position Ms. Ho for a time when Macau bounces back and mainland officials relent on tourist restrictions, though analysts caution that the heady growth rates of earlier in the decade are probably a thing of the past. "As the economy recovers and as Macau becomes more ready in terms of infrastructure, [casino operators] will be in a position to welcome high levels of gaming revenue," said Gavin Ho, of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.

Before her emergence as a serious player in the Macau gambling scene, the U.S.-educated Ms. Ho was known primarily as the founder of a local public-relations firm and as a fixture of the society pages of Hong Kong newspapers. Her interests in Macau led to her selection as one of The Wall Street Journal Asia's Women to Watch. Through representatives at Shun Tak and the MGM Mirage joint venture, she declined to comment.

Ms. Ho and Shun Tak face an early test in the One Central project, a Macau luxury-property joint venture with real-estate company Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd. set for completion by early next year. While the vast majority of units have been presold, many were to investors who have hit tough times.

Analysts say a capital infusion from another arm of the Ho empire may help should defaults materialize. Shun Tak received roughly 700 million Hong Kong dollars, or about US$90 million, in proceeds from the sale of its 50% stake in the Mandarin Oriental Macau hotel to Mr. Ho's Sociedade de Turismo e Diversoes de Macau SA vehicle, a deal that valued the whole property at HK$1.6 billion. Shun Tak's shares jumped 24% after the deal was announced, and analysts said the deal provided a cushion in the event of defaults. Still, at Tuesday's close of HK$2.80 (36 U.S. cents) in Hong Kong they still remain well below their price of about HK$10 a share a year ago.

—Jonathan Cheng contributed to this article.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123429935050169493.html

PRICE EXAMPLES: One Central Residences
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Tower 7, unit A, 13th floor (S081108) : source
Square ft 1,269 (2BR) : HKD $5,480,000 (US$708,927) = Reduce price, 4300 per sqft

Tower 1, 13/D (S7021 ) : source
Square ft 654 (1BR) : $4,220,000 (US$545,925)

Remarks
One Central Residences project has unrivaled location at the heart of Macau next to the MGM-Grand casino-resort-hotel, with unobstructed views of the water reservoir and 3 bridges across to Taipa island. Choices of 1 to 4 bedroom units with gross floor areas ranging from 654 to 3,000 sq. ft. penthouse (price range from HK$ 5.9 to 16.95 millions. For property details, floor plans etc., please visit www.panpacificproperty.com . . Beautiful lake view, Don't miss chance.

(Macau-based Estate agent, who speaks good English: HK Born):

Anson Chau, Sr.Acct.Mgr, The BEST Property Investment Agency (that's their name)
Short walk from One Central, near Macau Art Museum
(853) 6644-2299 / (852) 6800 0666
email: anson.cy.chau@gmail.com
Agency email: thebestmacau@gmail.com / 2875 7228

Other: http://www.vproperty.mo/index.php?task=fin...CFQOqbwodE2TZRQ

(Per Best-Agency, Macau):

"One Central new update as follow:

Tower 7, unit E, 27th floor
Square ft 1,301 (2BR) : HKD $5,400,000 (US$694,0874) = Reduce priced, 4150 per sqft"

Anson Chau, Senior Account Manager
Tel: 28757228 Fax: 28757223
Mobile :(853) 6644 2299 , (852) 68 000 666

Icelandic fund backs out of Macau property investment
Former high flying insurance group will pay cancellation fee to exit deal

by Chris Oliver, HONG KONG (MarketWatch) --

Icelandic investment group Sjova-Almennar Tryggingar HF has cancelled a agreement to buy all of the units in a 68-suite residential tower in Macau, marking the further withdrawal of the investment group and insurer once regarded as the vanguard of global risk-taking.

The Reykjavik-based firm signed a cancellation agreement Monday not to proceed with the purchase of units in Tower Four of One Central Residence, a luxury high-rise development built on the Macau waterfront, according to a statement filed late Monday to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by co-developer of the project, Shun Tak Holdings.

To exit the project, the Icelandic group will pay an undisclosed cancellation fee to Shun Tak and Hong Kong Land Holdings, joint developers of the project, the statement said.

The group agreed to pay 783 million Hong Kong dollars ($101 million) to buy out all units in the tower bloc in September 2006. The property itself part of a seven-tower, mixed use shopping, residential and serviced apartment complex.

Shun Tak Holdings /quotes/comstock/22h!e:242 (HK:242 4.60, -0.37, -7.44%) controlled by gambling kingpin Stanley Ho, saw its shares down 6.6% Tuesday by the midday break in Hong Kong.

The investment group has reportedly been seeking a buyer for its stake since the second half of last year, after the Icelandic currency and financial system imploded.

The fund was facing a deadline to come up with the 70% balance of the purchase price ahead of the completion of the project later this year.

The fund briefly saw its investment in the project nearly double in value in the months after the purchase agreement was inked, as prices soared to more than 8,000 Hong Kong dollars per square foot in the secondary market.

Prices later collapsed in the global meltdown

== == ==

Fulton Mak, writing in today's SCMP:
"I'm surprised to learn that it quit the deal without securing a new buyer and was returning the property to the developers," said Gregory Ku Ka-ho, the managing director at Jones Lang LaSalle (Macau)

Many buyers had shown interest in the project and were willing to take it over at HK$3,800 to HK$4,000 per square foot, Mr. Ku said. Owners needed to spend about HK$700 to HK$800 psf to furnish the units, as they would be bare upon delivery, he added.

Units at One Central Residences, launched for sale in the second half of 2006, fetched more than hk$8,000 psf when the market peaked in 2007. But selling prices have dropped to between hk$4,800 and hk$5,000 psf in the secondary market.

THE SALES EFFORT - described here, failed

Thursday, October 16, 2008
Iceland firms put properties on sale
Country's economic collapse prompts bid to divest holdings in Hong Kong and Macau.

Icelandic companies are offloading real estate in Hong Kong and Macau following the collapse of their country's financial system, raising fears other cash-strapped foreign investors are preparing to exit the local property market.

Iceland is among the countries worst hit by the credit crunch, with its financial system in virtual meltdown. Its banks have shortfalls or losses of about £37 billion (HK$504.23 billion), equivalent to £115,000 for each of its 320,000 citizens.

The small island nation's largest insurer, Sjova-Almennar Tryggingar, is selling its residential block at One Central Residence in Macau, while in Hong Kong, Iceland-based investment bank Askar Capital is putting it jointly owned luxury homes in Chung Hom Kok on the market.

"As the country is in big trouble, it is sensible that private institutions will try to repatriate funds back home," said a source familiar with the Macau deal.

Sjova-Almennar Tryggingar bought the Macau property, which is still being built in November 2006 at HK$782.74 million, or HK$4,410 per square foot, from a joint venture between Hong Kong Land Holdings and Shun Tak Holdings.

The insurance company has paid 30 percent of the purchase price and is required to pay the balance when the property is ready to be handed over next year.

/more: http://cheahwaisan.blogspot.com/2008/10/ic...es-on-sale.html

Macao Aims to Turn a Corner in Battle With Recession
Alex Frew McMillan for The International Herald Tribune
The One Central development in Macao.

Published: May 29, 2009
MACAO — The seven towers of the One Central development look a little like a dragon’s rolling body, with its silver head pointing out to sea. And at the moment there is a crane atop that head, as developers hurry to complete the residential part of the massive mixed-use project by August or September.

The development’s 796 luxury apartments will single-handedly drag the quality of the housing stock in this former Portuguese colony up a notch. And Macao, now an autonomous special administrative region of China, is looking forward to the lift.

Like a player on a bad streak at the tables, little had been going right for the city in recent months, even though it recently replaced Las Vegas as the world’s largest gambling market by total revenue. But there are signs of improvement. Property transactions, which had slumped to a 24-year low, are picking up. The city is preparing to elect a new administration, which should get a stalled construction permitting system back on track and may produce a new economic stimulus package. And visa restrictions for mainland visitors are easing, so more gamblers should soon be on their way.

But for now casino construction continues to be in limbo. Across the Cotai Strip from the world’s largest casino, the 51,000-square-meter, or 550,000-square-foot, Venetian Macao, loom the concrete skeletons of the Shangri-La, Sheraton, Traders and St. Regis hotels and their companion casinos. Slated to open last year, construction on all the projects has been stalled indefinitely due to financial problems with the developer, Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Developers have been unable to get construction permits since the 2008 conviction of Ao Man-long, Macao’s former secretary for transport and public works, on bribery and money laundering charges related to building approvals.

Macao’s chief executive, Edmund Ho, is scheduled to step down Dec. 19. Until there is a new government, “there is nothing positive in the market,” said Piers Brunner, chief operating officer for Asia for the real estate brokerage Colliers International.

That sour outlook was reflected in the city’s housing statistics: Only 311 apartments were sold in January, the slowest month since June 1985. But, in March, 960 apartments traded hands, still well off the pace in 2007 but more than triple the January tally.

Prices for apartments of more than 150 square meters have dropped 36 percent in the past year, to 27,243 Macanese patacas a square meter, or $316 a square foot, according to government figures. (Macao’s real estate is commonly measured in square feet, and high-end properties generally are valued in Hong Kong dollars, but the government report used square meters and patacas.)

That reflects the sharp correction that has taken place in a market that, at least briefly, was soaring. In 2006, when One Central rapidly sold 80 percent of its units at prices around 6,000 Hong Kong dollars a square foot, a high-water mark for Macao, other developers hurried to start their own projects.

Macao’s aging housing stock has never had much in the way of luxury housing. And what little existed was rapidly absorbed by an influx of new residents when the city ended a gambling monopoly in 2002. At the end of last year, it recorded 549,000 residents, a quarter more than at the start of this decade.

One of those newcomers is David Ogilvie, the office manager of the British Business Association of Macao. He says the place he rented for five months in Hong Kong cannot compare with the 600-square-foot apartment in the Flower City development where he lives now.

“It is about three times the size as my apartment in Wanchai, in Hong Kong, and almost half the price, while still being in a prime position in Taipa,” he said, referring to one of Macao’s islands. For younger professionals on tighter budgets, “the standard of accommodation here is, in my view, substantially better than Hong Kong.”

And, with the opening of One Central Residences, the luxury end of the market will improve too. The project, which will include a Mandarin Oriental Hotel due to open next year and a top-end shopping center, is a joint venture between Shun Tak Holdings and Hongkong Land.

“One Central is definitely going to be the premier luxury complex in Macao,” said Juliet Risdon, director of the Macao-based real estate brokerage Risdon, Lawson and Lo. “There’s no doubt, given the involvement of those brands. It’s going to be stunning.”

Yet the results of the global economic downturn and Macao’s stalled bureaucracy are visible across the Lago de Nam Van from One Central, where the so-called “C Lots” stand empty. Developers like Kerry Properties, one of Hong Kong’s best-known luxury builders, and Tenacity Real Estate Group are still waiting for permits and approvals, though Kerry still says its luxury 400,000-square-foot apartment building will be ready in the second quarter of 2012.

Similarly, only soil testing has been done on the site of Bel Lago, a joint venture between Pak Keng Van Property Investment and LaSalle Investment Management. But the companies say the project will happen — eventually.

Other reasons for optimism: A major casino, the City of Dreams, is to open on June 1 and a stimulus package from the mainland government is expected as the new chief executive takes office in December and the city celebrates the 10-year anniversary of its return to China.

An investment visa, which grants Macao residence to property buyers, may be reinstated then too. But real estate executives say the threshold may be 3 million to 4 million patacas, rather than the one million level that was in place when the program was suspended in 2007

perhaps that was near the low?

SOME MORE PRICING Information*

A have a list of 53 Sales at an average per of $5,213 per sf

The premium for Sea views and Lake views seemed rather modest.
Here's an example:
Tower 7, 34A : 1,269 sf : $6.9795 Million : $5,500 psf

Comparable with the April flat sale was:
Tower 7, unit E, 23rd floor : 1,301sf : $6.67413 Million : $5,130 psf, that's 23.6% higher, listed as "Sea view"

= = = = =
*This was provided by a helpful Macau-based agent:

Here are some information of The One Central small size, please check it out! Thanks!
Silvia Ng
Midland Realty (Macau) Limited
852-61484711
853-66885711

Macau still 33pc below peak - says Aaron Fisher

Macau property has been slower than HK to recover - he says, writing in today's SCMP



Nova City (at hk$2,700) and On Central (at hk$5,200) are implying a healthy trend,
but they are still below peak prices of HK$3,900 and HK$7,800, respectively.

In Macau he finds... "the absence of speculative demand", when at the market's peak
"people were borrowing 90pc, versus 70pc today". But the future may be brighter

Under new rules, anyone who has not bought in the last 3 years, and is a permanent
resident of more than 21 years old, will qualify for a 4% loan and a mortgage guarantee program

Macau's market clearly reacts to changes in gaming revenues, which rose 30% this year



Other factors:
+ Strong year-on-year growth in gamining revenues is expected by Q4
+ Visa restrictions are being relaxed, from Sept. 1 (from 1 visit in 3mos, to 1 a month)
+ Revival of Galaxy's Coati project, and a restarting of LV Sands Macau projects are expected
+ New Macau CEO, Fernando Chui wants to accelerate infrastructure projects, such as the light
rail system, and diversify Macau's economy away from gambling (conventions & tourism?)
+ The proposed new development of Hengqin Island may help provide more opportunities

Shares he mentions, with residential and commercial holdings are:
Shun tak Holdings (hk:xx)
xx

Polytec Asset Holdings, e-Sun, Macau Investment Holdings, Emperor Group

Aaron Fisher is head of Asian property and gaming research at CLSA

ONE CENTRAL Videos

Promotional -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF-eWTrMO-U - in chinese, fairly useless

Virtual Tour - one central macau- tour
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3OtEVSrPwg

Overall assessment: "nice view... but very small rooms", even before wrdrobes are added

SCMP:
Cotai work to lift luxury home prices - Sandy Li

"Units on upper floors of Macau's prestigious housing project, One Central Residences that offer sea views, are selling for HK$6,500 to HK$6,800 per sq ft, from a low of HK$3,700 in January last year after the added blow to confidence caused by the global financial crash.

But compared with the average price of HK$20,000 per sq ft ftetched by HK luxury flats, there remained ample room for further price gains, said Cheung (Ronald Cheung Yatfai, of Midland Realty.)

He said that luxury homes in the enclave remained 30 per cent below their Hk$10,000 high reached in 2007."
. . .

(Ma Iao Iao, chairman of San Kin Wah construction and investment) hopes the upcoming sale of Bay View, a medium priced residential development due to be completed in June, will achieve a price of HK$3,000 per sq ft, aboyut 7 per cent higher than current secondary market deals.

The Waterside launched

MPO.L / Sniper Capital have launched their own luxury version
of serviced flats at One Central:
http://thewatersidemacau.com/

CBRE is the leasing manager "and concierge"

“The Waterside” Macau commences leasing campaign
Introducing a new standard of luxury rental accommodation to Macau
Macau, 10 February 2010 – Today sees the launch of The Waterside, an ultra-exclusive collection
of 59 apartments which establish an unprecedented standard of luxury rental accommodation in
Macau.

The Waterside, which occupies its own private tower in the recently completed mixed-use
development, One Central*, represents one of the city’s most desirable addresses. Maximising its
prime waterfront location, the property offers panoramic views over the Nam Van Lake and the
historic district of Penha Hill.
“There is a clear gap in the Macau market for true luxury rental accommodation,” said Cello Chan,
Head of Asset Management at Sniper Capital Limited, which manages the project. “The Waterside
fills this gap by providing world class homes and services unmatched by current offerings in
Macau.”

The Waterside has been created to meet the needs of the most discerning clientele, including
senior executives and their families. Residents are offered a uniquely tailored experience including
a choice of interior designs and furnishing options alongside a wide range of services and facilities.
All apartments at The Waterside have been luxuriously appointed under the guidance of awardwinning
Japanese interior designer Yasumichi Morita, featuring three distinct styles – classic,
contemporary or grand deluxe.

“We are very excited to have undertaken this breakthrough luxury project as our first showcase in
Macau,” said Morita, CEO and Principal Designer of GLAMOROUS Co., Ltd., whose work includes
the W Hotel in Hong Kong and the Michelin three-starred Château Restaurant Joël Robuchon in
Tokyo. “Our aim was to create a truly glamorous lifestyle for everyone living at The Waterside.”
== == ==

Key facts
 Located in One Central Residences, Macau
 Total 59 apartments, including 54 three-ensuite units, 2 duplexes and 3 simplexes
 Unit sizes range from 2,270 to 4,740 square feet
 Exclusive interior designs and furnishings by award-winning designer Yasumichi Morita
 24-hour bespoke concierge service provided by CB Richard Ellis Group
Facilities and amenities
 118,000 square foot clubhouse with 6 indoor and outdoor zones
 Macau’s first 50-metre infinity pool
 Spacious car park facilities
 Within walking distance to MGM Grand Macau, Wynn Macau, One Central Macau shopping
centre and new Mandarin Oriental Hotel

Another new development



Indicative Price: M$ 2,800-M$3,400 per sf
without specifying whether lower floors or upper floors
Source: a so-called "Fund"
Arrangement: initial deposit of M$100,000
Floor plans and prices:
only watch and inspect detailed info in their office
Date of publicity: March 13 2009 (Sat) first day of newspaper advertisement

ONE OASIS - A new Luxury building for South Cotai


/source: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1087339

Selling well, thanks to aggressive promotion, ala Hong kong methods.
But is high priced, and will not be ready before 2013.

"Of interest mostly to those who WANT TO FLIP," one Macau agent told me.
And certainly the financing options seems to be designed to catch that type of investor.

10% (10 days) + 10% (6 months) + 10% (360 days) ++ 70% (completion-2013)

With stamp tax of only 0.5% early on, this is a "bet" on rising prices in Cotai

Website :: http://one-oasis.com/#/en/
Image-building ...
Video#1 : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL1mM_yJ4oc
Video#2 : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amLlbz9zxZI&NR=1
=====

Primary market pricing
xx

Secondary market pricing
xx

ONE CENTRAL Photos

Have you heard of this property: Flat D in tower 7 at MOP17,000 per month with basic furniture (sea view)

http://www.vproperty.mo/index.php?purpose=...50410MAC1425275
View

Master BR

Kitchen

Bathroom


2/
Another one: Flat G, tower 7 at MOP 15,000 per month without furniture

http://www.vproperty.mo/index.php?purpose=...10410TAI4024084
LR

Wow.
That's a cheap "asking" rent ($16,000 / 1178 = $13.58 psf) for that good view in "the best building in Macau":
view#1

view#2

. . .

I found this comment on S-City / http://tinyurl.com/1central2 :
Originally Posted by HK Bystander
Mine is very nicely furnished, corner unit, very high floor w/balcony. I'm only asking for $13-$15 psf.
Response, from Four Seasons:
I just rent out mine last week around Gross $12+ per sq ft, but without furniture supplied. Not high floor though, and without balcony, so your asking price sounds ok.

My partner and I are in Macau (visiting her parents) and went to view flats in One Central yesterday.

Comments:
+ The property is very nice, and lives up to its reputation as "best in Macau" IMHO
+ Some views are spectacular, and are good even on lower floors - the standard of finish is excellent for Macau
+ The shopping below is pretty useless, unless you want to buy expensive watches or over-priced branded clothing
+ There's a chance they will add some restaurants on the third floor of the mall - it is not open yet
+ Our impression in looking around in mid-day on a holiday, was that few people lived there
+ At night, there were very few lights on at about 7pm - we counted 5 in Tower 7
+ The agent had two fist-fulls of keys for OC, and told us: "these are HK owners looking for tenants" (one fist- maybe 30-40 keys)... and "these are the ones looking to sell" (another 30 keys)
+ We were shown the X-flat in post #18 above. We liked it, and thought it was livable, but did not like the furniture
+ Another flat (? in Tower 7, with 11?? sf) with a seaview was much better, and views were excellent despite low floor (11)

Our main reason was to have a look at this iconic development, but after viewing we have been toying with the idea of moving to Macau and living in One Central. I doubt that we would want to buy, for the following reasons:

+ Yields are low : If you use $13, then $13x12 = $156 / maybe $6,800 psf = Yield of 2.3%
+ Much more supply coming to the rental market, such as:
: The Waterside serviced flats in OC, they are asking $40-45,000/mo. ("havent a prayer" at those prices)
: OC-Tower 4, large flats, just sold - no one living there yet
: Royal Arch - which we also viewed - it is inferior to OC imho, but rents at maybe $10-12psf
: XXX (near AIA) - not yet received occupancy permit, many flats there
: One Grantai in Taipa, walking distance from Venetian
: Many spec buyers are still buying, see success of OneOasis and Riviera, the builders will keep selling to spec buyers, adding to the glut of supply at a time when it is hard to find good tenants

One friendly agent said to me: "Many people want to buy now, but where are they going to find the end users?"

What I can add to what I posted above is:
+ The property market is hot in Macau at the moment, and it may be easy to sell at a good price
+ If you bought early, you must have a good profit now, and selling & locking in a profit could be a smart move
+ People who would pay $25,000 would be expats on a housing allowance, spending "someone else's money"
+ There are many of those around, and those that are have plenty of choices
+ Accord to an local Macanese agent, local people will be looking to pay $10k, and so even $15k is a stretch
+ There is plenty more supply coming, few new expats coming (so far), and so there could be further pressure on rents, pushing them even further down
+ For the prices I heard, you might be lucky to get $18-20k from price-sensitive tenants
+ If we were looking to live in OC, we would expect to get a nice flat at maybe $15-16K
and might add a bit more ($1-2k per month), if the LL would let us find the furniture under a preagreed budget

Would I sell if I was in your situation?
Probably, I would, especially if I could lock in a good profit.


I see more downside than upside at current prices

... as I originally posted on the 1central2 thread ...



It is new supply, in the sense that it has just recently been offered to the market.

One agent showed us a list of flats available there, and prices were almost all in the region of $40,000 - 50,000, and not a single flat had been taken.

I reckon they will eventually change their strategy, and cut rates to $25,000 - 30,000 where their standard of decoration may attract some tenants. That would leach quality tenants away from other OC flats.



Another possibility is that the rally in HK property spills over into Macau, as is happening now, and speculative buyers, hoping to flip, are persuaded that good times lie ahead, despite that fact that new flats are flooding into the market, depressing rents. Before the market is allowed to approach balance, the Macau developers flood the market with new projects, with completion dates in 2012 or 2013. People "expect" the market to recover by then, and so they buy loads of new flats with forward completion dates.

The new projects may then assure that balance will not return to the rental market until sometime well after 2013. And people do not even see reality in rents in 2010, because much of the supply coming in 2010 has not yet hit the market.

This is the long tunnel of oversupply that Macau is now building for themselves. I think that Macau residential property could be a "renters market" now for some years to come - this is a contrast to Hong Kong, where supply is tight and rents are now rising. (I had a Tung Chung agent phone me today, talking about rents jumping up by maybe 20% within a few weeks.)

Hong Kong buyers operating in Macau may KILL the market, if they assume that HK's strength will eventually spill over to Macau.

To those that open their eyes, the run-up in Macau prices since one year ago, may be a godsend - a wonderful profitable exit opportunity.

I cannot guarantee that this is the case, but I have a hard time constructing a counterargument. Maybe someone else here can do that, but not me.

My friends at MCAU have just put their Riviera project on the market. Average size is just over 1,000 sf, and average price was around $3,500 psf. They sold well, with many locals buying.

This is a better size for the local market than you find in most new projects coming on the market. The myth of "the expat with a housing allowance" has fed this speculation. And many investment buyers seeking a "good tenant", are going to find that they have bought into a fantasy.

MPO/Sniper are likely to be one of the most disappointed when their serviced apartment fantasy goes flat IMHO.

GREAT PHOTOS of Macau (& some of the projects discussed here):
"One Day in Macau": http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1056197

This newly completed residential building adds hundreds of new flats


Response on 1central2:
I was told this one is owned by the fourth wife of Stanley Ho. The project was supposed to be a JV between Genting Malaysia group and Stanley Ho for a new casino in Macau, but due to the threat of Singapore government to revoke Genting's license in Singapore, they abandoned this JV. It now turns out to be a residential project.

Competing supply for One Central landlords


If I was holding an empty flat in OC, and having trouble finding a good tenant, I would be concerned
about the competing supply, especially if it was a large flat, and I was seeking $20,000+

Okay.
But the success of One Oasis, is bound to bring some copy-cat projects, and a flood of such projects, assuming they get sold and built will not help the market. So I suggest you watch this factor carefully. The recovery so far is limited to a recovery in confidence and prices, and it has not shown up yet in residentiial rents. In fact, I see them facing continued downwards pressure as many completed projects come onto the rental market.

My mention of HK is because I live there, and have been selling into the price surge that I see. I also had an agent show me two fist fulls of keys that she was holding for One Central, and she told me that most of them were owned by HK owners.

I acknowledge that the presence of mainlands is important in HK. In West Kowloon, where I live now, they account for perhaps 30% of the purchases of new flats. Without this strong component, the market would not be where it is. And buyers from both HK and mainland are helping to fuel the price surge in Macau. Unfortunately, they will be less helpful in filling the properties are end-use renters. Mainlanders may be slightly more willing to hold empty flats, I suppose. That is especially true if they paid cash. But non-cash buyers from both places may feel the pressure when their mortgage rates start increasing. I see that starting well before the end of 2010.

...as I posted on the other thread (see above), I think you squeezed through a brief window, and rented your property before the other supply hit the market. I takes time for people to give up on selling properties are target prices, especially when prices appear to be rising. After they do, they may decide to rent out.

Also much of the new supply of large flats is only hitting now, or is about to hit the market now.

... per 1c2:



Excuse me, but that is mere "agent talk" and is typical of the sort of "feeding frenzy" that one finds near a market top.

Believe it if you like, but can you find any sort of coherent argument supporting such loose talk? If so, I would like to hear it.



That is mad talk from brokers, who are now trying to cash a second commission from find new suckers / whoops, new buyers / to come in at a higher price. I had one Centaline agent try this out on me. He said, "If you want to buy here (I didnt), I have a client that is willing to sell at 'only' a $200,000 profit."

Quess what: I think those early sellers will find that they are soon joined by many others. 80-90% of the buyers at One Oasis probably want to flip at a profit. 360 days from now, when the third 10% payment is due, you may well find hundreds of flats available at a 10-20% discount to the original price. That may or may not be a good time to buy.

... 1c2 :



Congratulations, you have been invested during a good period, and apart from the Q2.2008-Q1.2009 drop, you have been involved during a good money-making period.

But I do think that property in Macau tends to follow the pattern in Hong Kong, see chart below:



I do note however that the upswing came from a lower level in 2002-3, and over that next five years or so, showed greater gains than did Hong Kong. The move on the downswings could be greater too. I certain do not see the firmness in Macau rents that I have observed in HK over the past 6-12 months.

1C2 yet again:



WHAT GAP?

Few people really think this through clearly. I have seen a hilarious example of how there is NO GAP. There's a place in Macau called Residencia, which now sells at about $4,500 psf (I believe), and one of the arguments used by the agents for buying there is:


"It has a Seaview and is immediately next to the future entrance to the Bridge to Hong kong.
So HK people can live there, and enjoy the lower prices and have easy access to Hong Kong."

Here's the hilarious part : Hong Kong is cheaper. The bridge takes one to Lantau Island, and on that island is a place called Tung Chung, where you can buy a very nice 1200 sf 3BR flat with a beautiful view of the sea and the airport for under $4,000 psf, which is cheaper than Residencia. So the Macanese broker's argument makes no sense at all.

You can argue that Tung Chung is under-priced, in which case you should be buying property in TC, and not in Macau.

What is cheap in Macau is RENTS, for a property like One Central, which is a quality building, right in the heart of things. And the Rental price is cheaper than the sales price IMHO.

What is still cheap to Buy maybe is Commercial Space in Macau, and I have started a thread here to talk about that.

1c2- A Warning on Bonds:



I cannot quarrel with that.

But as one experienced agent in Macau told me earlier this week: The problem with the property developers is Macau is that they do less analysis on the overall supply/demand situation than they do in Hong Kong. (And so does the Macau government.) So if they can buy a property and sell it at a profit, through a forward sale, they will sell, and sell, and sell ... until the market is fully saturated, and all the buying appetite is satisfied. So the place tends to get severely overbuilt in booms.

Now on top of this tendency, let's consider the vulnerability of buyers to changes in rates. The global financial crisis led to ultra-low interest rates worldwide. Hong Kong doesn't control its own interest rate policy, the US Fed does, thanks to the currency peg. Same thing goes for Macau. So if the US sets a low rate that looks right for the US, it may not be right for other countries - it may be too low for HK and Macau. That is where we may be now : An artificial boom is triggered by ultra-low US interest rates.

Now rates may be about to change. On another site where I post frequently, there was a poster who used to pop in frequently in the lead up to the financial crisis. As things got bad, he finally disappeared to a new home somewhere in South America and stopped his posting. Suddenly yesterday, he reappeared with a new warning:



Will this prove timely again? Let's wait and see. Rising rates would not be good for property investments in Hong Kong or Macau.

Longer Term Projection
I am bullish out to 2015-16, when I think the 18 year cycle will peak. But first, we may see a very nasty correction as rates go back up.

My guess is, that we may see something like this.


But the correction may get more "stretched out" than I have pictured.

... from a SC thread on South Cotai ...



Actually, I am hearing some rumours now that a significant number of the "sales" at One Oasis, were sham-like transactions, with sales back to the developer, or his agents.

I find it suspicious that some of the agents that met there seemed so eager to show me opportunities to buy secondhand sales, while we were sitting inside the show flat area.

From my notes:
First hand:
T1, 10 B: 2,361sf at $10.948mn = $4,528psf
T2, 4 - F: 1,848sf at $ 6.863 mn = $3,714psf
Second hand:
T5, 5 - G: 1,177sf at $ 4.400 mn = $3,738psf
T5, 19 E: 1,177sf at $ 5.100 mn = $4,340psf
T5, 19 B: 1,177sf at $ 4.900 mn = $4,163psf

The agent told me that 2nd hand was a good deal because.
the seller "wants only a $200,000 premium to his cost, which was the original launch price, which has since been increased by the developer."

== == ==
Note: Some Centaline agents:
Roy S. H. Ho, Sales Director, (853) 2883-6116 / royho@centaline.com
Miranda M.W. Lee, Consultant, (853) 6203-8018 (young sales agent, from HK)

... from 1c2:



We have already seen the rally part of this forecast (in light blue)


I cannot guarantee that we will see a correction looking like what I have drawn a circle around. We may see a correction from a higher level, something that takes longer, or even no correction at all.

But in any case, I like the risk reward of selling now, and sidestepping a potential correction, and looking for a better entry point in 1, 2, or 3 years time.

My fear is that the ultra-low rates that we are seeing now will not last much longer. When rates rise to more "normal" levels, I expect that the enthusiastic buying we are seeing now will dissipate, and selling will come in. If rates rise back to 4-5%, then there will be a very big correction indeed, unless rents rise sharply - which I just cannot see happening.

... 1c2:


I might have made a similar argument about Hong Kong in 2007 and 2008 when I was buying. I was saying it would detach from the US property market, and falling US property prices would help HK property, because the US falls would bring rates down. That is why I bought 10 HK properties in those years - I believed the argument that I was making.

Now so far, we have sold 8 of those 10 properties, each at a profit, and we are aiming to sell the last two, if prices go on rising. (At least one of them, we now have "for free", from the profits of those that have been sold.)

I don't make the argument any more, I think it is no longer valid.

HK (and Macau) prices have been driven up by people buying to take advantage of low interest rates, and rates are not going to go any lower than they are today. Indeed, I expect them to rise faster than the crowd expects, and when they do, it will mean that property prices fall back. That's my opinion.

I do not buy your argument on negative interest rates at all. I think it is completely specious. (I am sorry to say.) This mechanism will only work if incomes are rising faster than interest rates. I do not see that happening from where we are, do you?

If incomes rise only a little, and food and energy prices rise alot, and rates rise too, then people will find that they have less money to spend on housing, and mortgage loans will be more difficult to obtain. Lower inflation pushed rates down, and property prices up. Why do you expect the reverse - higher inflation - to push property up too. It makes no sense at all in the present context, where it will be tough to raise incomes.

You seem to have forgotten that China narrowed the door, for chinese people to come to Macau and gamble in the last crisis. They may do that again. And the present more rosy views on gambling revenues may not happen at all. And even if they do, Macau people will have to cope with higher costs in many areas. They may have little money for speculating on property.

...Oh, have I mentioned the big increases in property supply coming to Macau??

from : http://tinyurl.com/1central2 :

QUOTE - by drbubb2
We got a call from a very-depressed Estate Agent in Macau.

She said that things had gone very quiet and nothing is selling now. She tried to encourage me to make an offer, "even much lower", on a place we had seen in One Central.

I think I made her more depressed when I started talking about "a number per sf with a 5 in front of it." She didn't want to talk about anything at those levels, saying she though $6,800 psf was not a bad offer price.
UNQUOTE

...this response from FourSeasons

Yes, market turned quiet in the last 2 weeks, obviously impacted by the falling equity markets, Euro Crisis and the tightening policy in China. But it is pretty much the same everywhere, whether in Mainland China, Hong Kong or Singapore. It remained to be seen how long this will last. So far offering prices have not gone down but prices are more negotiable now.

But the market was still positive before that. My two friends sold a high small unit at high 6000s and a big unit at mid 7000s range just a month ago. And overall gambling revenue in Macau made new record again, grow more than 50% this year compared with last year, so the overall climate remained positive. As one can see from the equity performance of Sands China 1928 and Wynn Macau 1128, they have performed much better than the overall Hong Kong equity market and remain with high returns return year to date despite the falling market.