"Sitting on the fence, waiting for the Turn"; liking Oil
Charts for the next Commodity Watch Radio
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I have just done a new Podcast with Dominic for CW Radio
CWR Podcast : http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

Recorded at the Low : Update-HangSeng : HangSeng-daily : SPY-daily


The "Sitting on the Fence" podcast was made at an awkward moment before the US market opening and after the Hong Kong market had closed down 4.8% on Monday March 9th. I was already long (having bought a ton of stock of previous Thursday.) So I was "sitting on the fence" and wondering if I should sell some or all of that recently-acquired portfolio. Fortunately, I stuck to my guns, and by close on Thursday March 12th, my portfolio purchased on the previous Thursday was up 25% ! You can find details of the portfolio on the DrBubb's Diary thread.

You can also hear the recorded Conference Call from March 5th, the day I bought all those stocks. Here's the link:

: GlobalEdge Radio : http://globaledge.podbean.com/
Well worth a listen, especially if you want to hear the context for the 9 March CWR Podcast.
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Here are some charts for the Podcast - following up the GEI Conference Call.

Where's the Turn? / Original Forecast

At time of Podcast - Prior to Monday's Opening ... Update


WTI Crude Oil - Turning up AHEAD of Oil shares ?


Over time: XLE, GDX, and BKX (Bank shares) vs. SPX ... update


Major Oils (XLE) to SPX


Gold Shares (GDX) to SPX


Gold shares ran up before SPX. Is it now Oil's turn to lead ?

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LINKS
GEI Confer.Call #2 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6075
GEI CC#2 Podcast : http://dominicfrisby.net/GEIconf2.html
HPC Clone thread. : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=107608
GHPC clone thread : http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...showtopic=48526
Other HPC thread.. : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=107606

CRUDE OIL IS LEAPING, and stocks are following (so far)

Brent (OILB.L), vs. USO, XLE, OIH, and SMH ... update

Forecast, based on the Bradley "Turn date"

Astrology -
You must have given some thought to WHY it might work.
What are your thoughts on that, please?

THE TURN MAY BE IN PLACE - I am awaiting an Upthrust

SPX and INDU were Down on the day,
But SPX & SMH stayed above the lows of Friday, while OIL and XLE were up on the Day



Monday Closes: (note: Friday's low in SPX was: 666.79, SMH was 15.655, XLE: 37.40, USO: 26.73 )
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SPX: 676.53 Change: -6.85 Open: 680.76 High: 695.27 Low: 672.88 // Pct Change: -1.00%
SMH: $15.91 Change: -0.21 Open: 16.07 High: 16.65 Low: 15.89 Volume: 13,529,425 // Pct.: -1.30%
XLE : $38.86 Change: +0.07 Open: 38.35 High: 40.13 Low: 38.09 Volume: 42,001,193 // Pct.: +0.18%
USO: $28.65 Change: +0.66 Open: 27.99 High: 29.56 Low: 27.97 Volume: 36,041,781 // Pct.: +2.36%
WTI Crude: $47.11 +$1.59 / Pct.+3.29%


Bloomberg attributes the drop to:
+ Warren Buffett "says the economy has fallen off a cliff", and
+ Noriel Roubini "says the SPX will go to SPX-600" (ie down another -11.3%)

THESE STORIES SHOULD HELP the Bull case today
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Vickram Pandit (Citigroup) : "Best profit in years, in the first two months"
Dennis Gartman (Analyst) : Oil: "The trend has shifted from bearish, to bullish."

Here we go:

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2009/03/...g-for-the-turn/

Have you seen the market today?

The Last Five days : SPX versus Major Oils (XLE), Crude (USO), and Semi-conductors (SMH) ... update


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Latest Commodity Watch Radio podcast, recorded Monday when markets were down big.

Sitting on the Fence, Waiting for the Turn:

Trader Michael Hampton is looking for a turn in the markets, but at the moment it hasn’t come now. He likes oil and oil stocks, but for now he finds himself ’sitting on the fence’ .

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/
"The next move, when it comes, will be a very dramatic one."
"10-20 or 30% in a short time." :

Dominic asks : "Astrology? Is that now all mumbo-jumbo ?"
RESULTS should speak for themselves. (I'm a practical person. If it works, I want to use it.)

FTSE 100 up 4.4% so far today.

SITTING ON THE FENCE - what did that mean?




MY PORTFOLIO ?? Here's what I bought last thursday

FTSE100 down 0.58% today.

FTSE up 0.49% today.

In edit: To clarify these postings, here's

FTSE-Hourly ... update : daily-FTSE

Friday 13th March: not so unlucky: FTSE up 1.12%

Thanks for whoever posted the chart.

And to clarify: I'm posting daily closes to track whether a rally is emerging: if it does I'll sell into it.

Monday 16th: FTSE100 up 2.94%

Tuesday 17th: down 0.18% today.