(from the "Restructuring America's Dream" thread ):

US oil prices fell from a 1920 peak of $3.07 per barrel to a double bottom in 1931 and 1933
of 65-67 cents // source: Petroleum Economist article, April 1991.

The US was a creditor nation then. And the depression was a "deflationary depression",
where oil prices collapsed rather than skyrocketing. It was cheap to run that old truck.
But no one had much money.

Now people have money, but energy prices are shooting up

Oil Price charts
1.a/
.
.b

See, my old 1991 article:"Cycling Towards Low Oil Prices" : pg.1 : pg.2 : pg.3
The article suggested cycles of: 2.4 years, 8.3 years, and 30 years
This projects an Oil Peak in 1980 +30 years = 2010, could that be $200+?

2/

3/

4/
WTI Crude, per Stockcharts ... update


Gold vs.Oil/


OIL CHART LINKS

Dec.2006 (X or Z)
Barcharts ........... : http://www2.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=CLZ6
Ino .................... : http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.X06
Access Trading..... : http://www.accesstrading.com/charts.php (use: CLX2006 )
TFC/TradingCharts : http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO
China Energy News : http://www.zoomchina.com.cn/

Quotes/Options etc : http://www.bohlish.com/#FUTURES

= =
Bullish News for Oil - all around: New Highs being made... $75.89 !!
========

Oil Rises to Record in New York, London on Attacks in Nigeria
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record in New York and London after a report that militants attacked pipelines in Nigeria this week, heightening concern Africa's largest oil producer faces further delays restoring lost output.
. . .
``The hot spots are flaring up yet again,'' said Anthony Nunan, the deputy general manager for petroleum business at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. ``A political truce in Nigeria is breaking down and the tensions in the Middle East are heating up, and demand for gasoline in the U.S. at $3 a gallon is still holding up very well.''

Record Highs

Crude oil August delivery rose as much as 94 cents, or 1.3 percent, to a record $75.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $75.59 at 8:55 a.m. London time. Brent crude oil rose to a record $75.45 a barrel, or 1.4 percent, on London's ICE Futures Exchange. It recently traded at $75.21.

...MORE: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...wnUs&refer=

Nice chart of OILB.

WTIC closed at $76.70 today. Middle East boiling again.

Can't see Iran doing that nuclear deal with Israel's forces on the march.

Rockets hit Israeli city of Haifa.

The Israeli ambassador in Washington, Danny Ayalon, described the Haifa incident as a "major escalation" of the crisis.

He said the international community should make it clear to Iran and Syria - who both have links with Hezbollah - that they were "playing with fire".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5178058.stm

You have to read between the lines of much of what is said that comes out of the Middle East. State's like Iran openly say they would like to see Israel wiped off the face of the earth, Israel responds in kind. Sometimes actions are taken to provoke or scupper certain plans. Was the Israeli action of the last week or so taken in part to stop any US/Iran backroom deal? They were provoked, but they don't always respond in such a heavy handed way. Israel would like Iran dealt with - one way or another. They have already made it clear that if Iran looks like it is getting close to having the bomb, Israel will strike first.

hmmm ......... depends on how quickly the russianns deliveri on the anti aircraft contract; once delivered and installed etc they will only be vulnerable to stealth bombers and only the us has these!

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2006/01/russia-is-key.html

"..............What has to be asked, therefore, is what makes the difference – what makes the likelihood of an Israeli strike imminent? The answer, of course, is makes the difference the forthcoming delivery by Russia of the SA-15 Gauntlet anti-aircraft missiles, the sales of which it has been negotiating since 2001, and right through the EU3 diplomatic initiative.
...................."

And even the stealth is not a sure thing. One was brought down in the action over Serbia a few years ago. The Serbs reportedly gave what was left of it to the Russians.

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9903/28/downed.plane.03/

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-10...POE=click-refer

If these anti-aircraft missiles are delivered and start being deployed around the nuclear facilities, then you might get fireworks. Israel of course, is the only known WMD state in the region.

"It seems that oil is destined to hit $80 before the end of July and maybe even higher should tensions erupt abruptly," said Kevin Kerr, editor of Global Resources Trader, a newsletter published by MarketWatch.

"The U.N. will have a full slate of activity trying to negotiate all of the hot spots on the planet right now," he said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...ers&siteid=

Brent Crude futures have formed a beautiful parabolic rise this week - from $73 all the way to $78 !! The technical case for going short now must be pretty strong, but with "a bull market in death" (as the Daily Reckoning puts it) in full swing, I don't have the nerve... does anyone else?!!

If oil stays around this level or above for the rest of the summer, can we safely assume that we'll not be seeing new highs in US stocks any time this year? I feel we're more likely to see a re-test of last October's lows, if not worse.

I've been telling ya this for months but no one listens to my folksy little opinions.

Dont be naive, people.
This is not a regional flare-up

China is making the moves here.
They are testing our reflexes at every opportunity.
Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Sudan, Venezuela....its all China and its all about securing resources.

Oil is NOT coming down.
Get yer heads around that.
Rather than squinting over charts trying to make a buck off someone elses labour, I'd suggest you look around at how you can function without oil.

...or more precisely, how can you function in a world with $100+ barrel oil.

Well, maybe I'm just talking my position here as I'm currently short on crude, but it's my observation that when something hits headline news it is normally a pretty good sign that we've reached or are very near to a short term peak.

The technical case for a correction in crude oil is getting stronger and stronger. RSI has just entered the 70+ zone, from which it has always corrected.

This week was MAJORLY bullish for crude. We had Iran, Palestine, Korea all flaring up, and midweek crude inventories were way down on expectations.

War or no war, prices will not go up in a straight line. I heard the same arguements by the Gold bulls when gold was $700+.

We'll may see $100 oil eventually and even higher, but $65 first.

"how can you function in a world with $100+ barrel oil.?"

I think it is going to $200.
But not by going straight up, and not immediately.

The BIG RISE in the dollar price, may well come within a few months if-and-when the Dollar goes into freefall. So that chart on the Dollar thread, showing a seasonal tendency for the dollar br weak after August is very interesting

SOME CHARTS for the Header maybe:

Dec.2006 WTI, last Two Years ... update
: Shows BREAKOUT above $76

Closer-up: Crude Oil etf (USO) ... update : 10.day

You're a brave man shorting crude going into hurricane season.

Don't think anyone's being naive. No one on here is talking about $30 oil and China has been covered over and over again. How everyone will function, or not, with $100, $200 or $300 oil will ultimately be the big question. China will not get it all, let's be clear on that and if they did monopolise it, then it will be they who dictate the price (and it won't be any of the figures mentioned above). There needs to be this continued competition for this resource and that alongside the peak oil question will be the determining factor.

As I have said before...
The World will be a better place If and When the USA discovers a new mission...

As a Country to be the Leader of Innovation in Alternative Energy.

To get there, we may need to see:

+ $200 Oil,
+ More failures in US political leadership,
+ A clear peak in Oil resources vs. Production,
+ A more widespread realisation that the current mission as "the world's policeman and consumer of last resort" is thankless, and will eventually bankrupt the USA

with the sudden shift of focus back on oil, is it likely that New/Green energy stocks may become more attractive (move to buy levels) ?

My inexperienced train of thought says, YES in the short term - but they may suffer if the bear market follows through

Possibly, YES.

See the thread about the coming BUY on Alt-E stocks in the Main Forum

But what does all this mean for the average person right now? The US consumer might be horrified at the thought of $4 a gallon, but here in the UK, we are facing £5 a gallon. What wll be the consequencies of that?

"Analysts said the political risk factors that dictate oil prices are 'out of control', pointing to even higher prices to come.

The crisis coincided with the average price of petrol in the UK hitting a record high of 96.85p a litre, or £4.40 a gallon.

and

Yesterday's petrol price beat by a fraction the previous record of 96.81p a litre reached on May 11.

It means UK drivers are spending £6.14million more on petrol each day than they did at the start of the year - with the average two-car owning family paying an extra £19.38 on petrol per month.

The price of diesel remains below the record high of 99.19p a litre reached on May 4, and currently stands at 98.74p."

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....mp;in_page_id=2

It's a good job there is no inflation then, otherwise people might start getting a little unhappy.

I know how y'all love some sources so here ya go -

"A Chinese intelligence officer is engaged in covertly aiding the ruling Palestinian Hamas terrorist group, according to a Paris-based intelligence newsletter picked up by the Washington Post’s Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough on June 19.

They identify Gong Xiaosheng as a Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) official who has worked out of Ramallah since Nov. 2002, first with Yasser Arafat and latterly helping Hamas.

It was Gong who arrianged for Mahmoud al-Zahar to be invited to Beijing shortly after his appointment as Hamas foreign minister.

The report says Gong is a strategic agent “trained in Division 8 of the ministry and also at the China Institution of Contemporary Relatons (CICIR), an MSS think tank. Its Middle East section is headed by Jin Ruikun, a specialist in Palestine and Jordan, and Chen Shuanqing, a specialist on Israeli-Palestinian relations and Israel’s Likud party.

...intelligence sources add: The Chinese “strategic agent” was so close to Yasser Arafat that he was among the handful of aides and terrorist chiefs confined with him in two rooms of of the residential apartment of the Palestinian leader’s Ramallah headquarters when it was stormed and besieged by Israeli forces in April and May 2002.

After his death, Gong moved over to Hamas. As far back as 2004, the Chinese MSS pegged the Islamist terrorist group as an up-and-coming force heading for Palestinian rule. The American CIA and Israeli Mossad were far slower in assessing Hamas’ rise to power - even on the eve of the Palestinian election in January, 2006. Our Palestinian experts were alone in predicting the Hamas win.

Our sources disclose that the Chinese intelligence officer is very close to Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniya, a-Zahar and Muhammed Jaabari, chief of the Hamas armed wing, Ezz e-Din al-Qassam. They habitually consult him for advice. Hamas’s actions and decisions are there not merely influenced by its relations with fellow Palestinian groups, Iran, Syria and other parts of the Muslim world. The Hamas-Gaza, Beijing connection is no less influential. "

No real surprise there. I'd be more surprised if the Chinese were not doing this. This is the shady, largely un-reported world, which often only comes out later in expose books or now on the web. China are doing it now, Russia and Cuba 20 years ago. One way or another, they are all playing this game, whether it's the US backing Bin Laden when he was knocking seven bells out of the Russians in Afghanistan in the 80's, or the Chinese sending their agents out across the world now. Power politics, buying influence, propping up tin pot dictators, supporting terrorists (or freedom fighters when they are your guys), war by proxy, etc, etc, nothing new in it.

@No.6

Yes but now, like the internet, its more immediate and has global consequences.

A sign of things to come.

The FTSE had a good day, the Dow is having a good day, but oil is creeping up again, $75 a barrel on news that Condi Rice was out visiting in the Middle East and that a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah is "unenforceable."

But how about this. A fire? Or Venezuela putting the squeeze on the US?

Oil also gained after traders said a crude distillation unit at Venezuela's Amuay refinery will be shut for five to seven months following a fire.

The plant is part of the giant 940,000 barrel per day (bpd) Amuay-Cardon complex, the world's biggest refining complex and a top supplier of U.S. gasoline imports.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/24/markets/oil.reut/index.htm

Hurricane Season coming up in the US Gulf...


...and Oil has corrected, and may be ready to run

The US has had a trade embargo with Cuba in place since 1961, but could this be about to change? Cuba has a big oil find which is attracting interest from a number of countries, some of which, China and Venezuala, the US might not want having that close to it's back door. The need for resources may dictate that the US re-think it's policy towards Cuba. However, the other question has to be, will Cuba be interested?

http://www.forbes.com/infoimaging/feeds/ap.../ap2913365.html

MORE OIL CHARTS

Dec.2006 (X or Z)
Barcharts ........... : http://www2.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=CLZ6
Ino .................... : http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.X06
Access Trading..... : http://www.accesstrading.com/charts.php (use: CLX2006 )
TFC/TradingCharts : http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO

Quotes/Options etc : http://www.bohlish.com/#FUTURES

Monday:

Oil climbing FAST, clawing back those losses from friday

Charts : WTI : Brent/OILB

- -
Crude Oil Rises After Leak Discovered in Russia's Main Pipeline to Europe Crude oil rose after the Russian government reported one of the nation's main oil links to Europe leaked near the Belarus border, possibly cutting supplies from the world's second-largest exporter.

ENERGY RISING, not just oil

The EEI said last week that the U.S. set a record for electricity demand for the week ending July 22. The Energy Department last week surprised the market by reporting that U.S. inventories of natural gas shrank by 7 billion cubic feet. Supplies typically build during summer.

Still, the country's natural gas inventory is well above historical levels at 2.76 trillion cubic feet. The five-year average for this time of year is 2.27 trillion cubic feet.

Analyst Dan Lippe of Houston-based Petral Worldwide believes that, barring any major hurricane damage to platforms and pipelines, natural gas prices could fall sharply in September. "You will see (U.S.) storage facilities full well before the last week of October," Lippe said.

Light sweet crude for September delivery rose $1.16 to settle at $74.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent crude futures at London's ICE Futures exchange rose $1.76 to settle at $75.15 a barrel.

Oil prices have been choppy in recent weeks, but BNP Paribas Commodity Futures broker Ric Navy said the market could be setting up for a big move up.

"The longer you go sideways, the bigger the breakout when it occurs," Navy said. "And at this point, the long-term trend is still higher."

Navy said traders could easily become more anxious in the weeks ahead, with the Gulf of Mexico hurricane season expected to pick up and the nuclear standoff between the West and Iran expected to come to a head in late August.

The U.N. Security Council passed a resolution Monday giving Iran until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of economic and diplomatic sanctions. Iran immediately rejected the council's demands, which were watered down from earlier drafts because of Russian and Chinese demands.

...MORE: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/4085085.html

2/

"Prices have moved up ... with traders concerned over reports of a serious oil spill on the Druzhba pipeline, which ships over 1.2 million-1.4 million barrels per day of crude oil to Europe," said Barclays Capital analyst Kevin Norrish.

Oil prices also gained after the UN Security Council overnight tightened the screws on Iran over its nuclear program, ordering Tehran to halt uranium enrichment work by August 31 or face possible sanctions.

But the text stopped short of an immediate threat of sanctions, which have been opposed by Russia and China, and said punitive action would have to be the subject of further debate.

Security analysts have said that in the event of sanctions, Iran might retaliate and block the Strait of Hormuz, which is a crucial outlet for oil shipments to Japan, the United States and Western Europe.

Iran is the world's fourth-biggest producer of crude oil and exports around 2.7 million barrels per day.

...MORE: http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,,1...2-31037,00.html

Oil: It's All About Supply
Paul Maidment, 05.12.06, 12:00 PM ET

New York - Energy traders saw more evidence Friday, as if it were needed, of how supply threats are driving oil prices at a time when the demand-supply balance remains tight.

Crude-oil futures prices on Friday initially gave up the $3-per-barrel gains of the past week following publication of the International Energy Agency's monthly oil report, which said high prices were at last starting to cut into consumption. But prices rebounded after separatists in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, threatened to destroy a $13 billion natural-gas export plant in the Niger Delta, and reports came in of a fatal explosion close to Lagos attributed to oil smugglers attempting to tap into a pipeline.

On Friday morning, U.S. light crude oil was trading in New York at around $73 per barrel, with London Brent crude a tad higher. U.S. crude hit a record of $75.35 in April, driven by tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions and supply concerns in Nigeria, where attacks on pipelines and an export terminal this year have halted about a fifth of the country's oil output. Kidnappings of oil workers there have been frequent.

Shares in oil majors--such as Exxon Mobil (nyse: XOM - news - people ), Chevron (nyse: CVX - news - people ), ConocoPhillips (nyse: COP - news - people ) and BP (nyse: BP - news - people )--were similarly volatile in New York trading.

The IEA's latest monthly Oil Market Report attracted wider attention than usual because it made a sharp cut in its forecast for the growth in world oil demand for the year from 1.47 million barrels per day to 1.25 million barrels per day, saying that high prices are at last cutting into global energy demand, including in the U.S.

The agency, which advises 26 industrialized countries, is now forecasting that the world will consume 84.83 million barrels per day this year--200,000 barrels per day less than previously forecast. That would reduce this year's annual consumption growth to 1.5%, less than the forecast growth of the global economy.

As well as an easing of demand growth in the U.S., the agency forecasts that that the world's other oilaholic, China, will decrease its appetite by 15,000 barrels per day. That would still leave it increasing its consumption for the year by 5.3% to 6.9 million barrels per day.

The IEA also cut its estimates for oil demand in the world's second-largest producer, Russia, and in the other former Soviet states, as larger than expected exports suggested less was being consumed at home.

Remember, though, that the world is just using more oil less rapidly. It is not using less oil.

As the world economy continues to grow, the demand-supply balance for oil remains tight, with little spare capacity. The swing supplier to world markets, the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, have been pumping more oil. In April, OPEC increased output by 485,000 barrels per day, to 30.04 million barrels per day, driven by increased production in Iraq. But at best, the members of OPEC have less than 2 million barrels per day of space capacity left, compared with more than 7 million barrels per day in 2002.

So, even if the demand pressures ease slightly as the IEA forecasts, and the increase in supply it has detected--up 485,000 barrels per day in April, thanks to a turnaround in production from Iraq and more pumping in the U.S., China, Russia and central Asia--remains steady, supply worries will continue to spook energy traders, as Friday's news from Nigeria confirms.

-FROM: http://www.forbes.com/home/columnists/2006...pm_0512oil.html

= =

WED: Crude inventories down more than expected

This is interesting from Iran-Daily.Com

Aug. 4--Iran, the second largest oil producer within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said Friday that crude oil prices may touch $100 a barrel on winter demand and geopolitical concerns, according to AFP.

“There is still a possibility of crude reaching $100 a barrel due to geopolitical problems worldwide and peaking of winter demand,“ Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian said, according to Press Trust of India.

Asked by reporters if Iran would stop oil exports in the event of an attack by the United States over its suspected nuclear program, Nejad-Hosseinian replied, “I don’t think so.“

http://www.iran-daily.com/1385/2628/html/economy.htm#s164292

Another Monday : Oil (OILB) up $1.00 in early going

Markets don't like it. FTSE off almost 50 points

That's Prudhoe Bay related, that move...

BP to Shut Down U.S.'s Largest Oil Field; Prices Jump (Update9)
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc is shutting Alaska's Prudhoe Bay oil field, the largest in the U.S., because of pipeline corrosion and a leak, cutting supplies and increasing criticism of the company's safety record in its biggest market.

Oil rose as much as 2.6 percent and shares of London-based BP, the world's second-largest publicly traded oil company, lost 2 percent. Owners of the field, accounting for 8 percent of U.S. output, include Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips and Chevron Corp. The shutdown may take days to complete, said Toby Odone, a BP spokesman in London.

Chief Executive Officer John Browne already faces a grand jury probe for an earlier Alaska spill, charges of market manipulation in the U.S. propane industry and fines from a Texas refinery blast that killed 15 workers. BP, which gets 40 percent of its sales from the U.S., last month said it will boost spending there to improve safety and maintenance.

The Alaskan shutdown ``will prompt further questions about BP's safety procedures,'' said Ivor Pether, who helps manage about $15 billion at Royal London Asset Management, including BP shares. ``It will have a big impact on earnings if it's shut down for a long period of time but they absolutely have to do it.''

Prudhoe Bay accounts for about 1 percent of BP's annual earnings, Pether said today in an interview. Higher prices may offset the effect of lost output, he said.

`Big Effect'

It may take ``some months'' for BP to replace at least 3 miles of pipelines in Alaska, Citigroup Inc. analysts including James Neale in London, said today in a research note. Odone declined to comment on the Citigroup estimate.

Crude oil for September delivery rose as much as $1.91 to $76.67 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $76.20 at 12:57 p.m. London time. Oil reached a record $78.40 a barrel on July 14.

BP shares fell as much as 14.5 pence to 621.5 pence in London.

- -
`Bad News'

Some 400,000 barrels a day of production is being shut, BP spokesman Ronnie Chappell said. The company doesn't know when the pipeline will be repaired, Chappell said.

A pipeline that leaked four to five barrels of oil was shut down at 6:30 a.m. Alaskan time Sunday, BP said in a statement. BP owns 26.36 percent of the Prudhoe Bay field. Alaska provides about 10 percent of BP's worldwide oil production.

``It's just another long line of bad news for BP,'' Nunan said.

Exxon Mobil, the world's largest publicly traded oil company, owns about 36 percent of Prudhoe Bay, according to its Web site. Company spokeswoman Susan Reeves declined to comment on the field's closure or the effect on the Irving, Texas-based company.

Houston, Texas-based ConocoPhillips, the No. 3 U.S. oil company, owns 36.1 percent of Prudhoe Bay. San Ramon, California- based Chevron, the No. 2 U.S. oil company, owns about 1.2 percent and Denver, Colorado-based Forest Oil Corp. has 0.02 percent.

@: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

= =

BP might be a buy here

hmmm I've had my eye on BP for a bit, thinking along the same lines.

But think Im on the sidelines for a little longer yet, since Im no trader, more cautious investor

I was looking to nip it for a very short term trade- that's all

whilst serching for a graph of the copper futures curve, came acrooss thies

Why Have Oil Prices Risen?
Jacob Wellendorph Ejsing, John Hydeskov and Palle Bach Mindested, Market Operations
http://www.nationalbanken.dk/C1256BE9004F6...;file/kap04.htm

a well written, lucid and dispassionate article with some interesting graphs
http://www.nationalbanken.dk/C1256BE9004F6...6;file/056a.gif
http://www.nationalbanken.dk/C1256BE9004F6...ile/052ibox.gif
http://www.nationalbanken.dk/C1256BE9004F6...36;file/055.gif


CONCLUDING REMARKS
Looking forward, two key questions are apparent.

Firstly, will the strong growth in global oil demand continue? Curbing demand growth in the USA and China would require either a slowdown in economic growth, the implementation of energy-saving measures, or restructuring in favour of alternative energy sources.

Secondly, will the OPEC countries be able to boost investments in production capacity? Investing in new extraction capacity entails not only financial risk, but also other significant risks related to the continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where most of the world's demonstrated oil reserves are found.

Both futures prices and explicit expectations among market participants point to sustained high oil prices in the years to come. Since global production is close to its capacity limit, the estimates are, however, subject to much uncertainty and disruptions caused by e.g. natural disasters or military conflicts could potentially have drastic price implications in the coming years.

ps anyone know of a graph of the cu futures curve?

U.S. light crude for September delivery slumped $2.35 to $74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a decline of around 3 percent.

"When oil comes down the market does tend to act better as an inflationary play," Hyman said.

= =

PRESS SPIN ...explaining the move

So thought there was manipulative buying at the low, to keep confidence alive.
In any case, the Press does its usual job of "pinning news on the move":

Relief on Wall Street ... Aug 10: 6:26p
Major gauges manage gains as investors take in falling crude oil prices, arrests in British terror plot.
(more): http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/10/markets/ma...wyork/index.htm

Funny that:
The disruption of air travel becomes good news, becauseit reduces flying, and hence demand
for jetfuel, crude falls. I doubt this will last long, and if it does, there will be some negative knock-on
effects of reduced travel.

FUTURES CURVE ?

Seeking charts, found these:

The Long-dated Price has risen dramatically:

source: http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/2/234845/7384

People once thought:
The view was very precise, in that the long-term oil price was generally put as being between $18 and $21 per barrel. Indeed, the market’s perception of where to place the back end of the crude oil futures curve very rarely strayed outside that $18 to $21 interval over the whole period from 1986 to 2002. The $18 to $21 range became the touchstone for views of what represented normality, and any hypothesis that suggested prices could be higher than that range was considered heretically abnormal. Governments thought in terms of that range, as did financial markets.

Relative to the long months, the spot price is vey "whippy":

Brief comments from US energy secretary Sam Bodman: Link

US GASOLINE - back to nosebleed territory

Chart test:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s...amp;a=2&v=w

Intraday-Brent

Do you really think there is any point charting the oil price - its so volatile due to supply constraints? One piece of news leads to a rapid decline and then suddenly something else leads to a rapid rise. As you know the long-term trend is unremittingly UP.

"According to OPEC, in June 2006 Russia extracted 9.236 million barrels of oil, which is 46,000 barrels more than Saudi Arabia. The statistics also showed that Russian production in the first half of this year increased to 235.8 million tons, a year-on-year improvement of 2.3 percent.
http://www.mosnews.com/money/2006/08/23/russiaoil.shtml

Good News? Not according to Jeffrey J. Brown (westexas) on the oil drum:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/23/9110/82030#more

I assume that most media outlets that report the captioned story by the Moscow News would describe it as good news regarding Russian oil production. What the Moscow News is not reporting is that current Russian production is 2.8% below its December level. As I outlined in a recent article regarding net oil exports, "Net Oil Exports Revisited," (http://www.energybulletin.net/19420.html), I estimate that oil exports from the top 10 net oil exporters are probably now falling at a double digit annual rate. The captioned article provides additional evidence of the decline, since the June production number is below the May (EIA) production number for Russia.

With that in mind as I don't have the time for trading I just hold a few oil stocks: Dana Petroleum DNX,Soco SIA,IEC and AEX. I have hedged these with a spread-bet sell on British Airways (eventually a bomber will get through or people will get so fed up with security they will stop flying), Barratt and Northern Rock

I just can't ever see oil going below $60 a barrel again (famous last words).

YES. Charts can be useful.

This one, suggests to me that Crude has at least a little further to fall

WTI Crude Oil (WTIC) ... update



I might think alot lower, but the Oil shares are behaving as if a low is nearby

And you were right. But hang on is that a tropical depression heading towards the gulf I see?
Tropical Depression 6

Good Peak Oil BBC radio program tonight

BBC Peak Oil

Any opinions on the recent find in the Gulf of Mexico.
Opportunity to buy? It seems that this has knocked prices a little but surely it won't be online for a good while?!

by the time the new oil is online, demand will have grown enough to consume it easily

HELPS FOR THE NOVEMBER ELECTION--

Oil Prices Settle Near Six-Month Low As Worries About Supply Threats Ease


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The likelihood of finding $2-a-gallon gasoline in some parts of the U.S. is increasing by the day. The nationwide average at the pump is already below $2.50, and with a huge decline in oil and gasoline futures on Tuesday analysts say the outlook for motorists is only getting better.


"We'll see sub-$2.25 a gallon retail (prices) by October," said Tom Kloza, director of the Oil Price Information Service, adding that prices below $2 can already be found in Kansas, Missouri, South Carolina and other states.

Oil prices sank by more than $2 a barrel Tuesday to settle near a six-month low as worries about supply threats eased and signs of economic weakness in the U.S. signaled a potential cooling of energy demand.

The selloff brought crude oil futures to a six-month low, and helped weigh down already sinking gasoline prices.

"The real-time fundamentals of supply and demand are bearish," said Societe Generale commodities analyst Mike Guido.

Global inventories of crude oil are rising and in the U.S. -- the world's biggest energy consumer -- demand is tapering off. "There are signs that the housing market could have a bigger impact on the economy going forward," he said.

Moreover, pre-summer fears that hurricanes would disrupt Gulf of Mexico oil production have so far not materialized and speculators who had once helped to drive prices higher are now making bets on further declines.

While the market's psychology has clearly shifted, traders remain cautious about the West's diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear program, though they are increasingly less fearful than they once were that Iran will pull oil off the market.

Light sweet crude for October delivery fell $2.14 to $61.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where gasoline futures tumbled 7.58 cents to $1.5038 a gallon.

It was the lowest close for front-month crude futures since March 21, when oil settled at $60.57. Oil prices have fallen 20 percent from a record settlement of $78.40 a barrel on July 14.

Also influencing trade, analysts said, was the market's preparation for a shift in the gasoline contract. At year's end, the unleaded gasoline contract the market has traded since 1983 will be replaced by a futures contract known as the reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending, or RBOB, which is already being traded actively on Nymex.

The move stems from the refining industry's decision to introduce ethanol as a substitute for methyl tertiary butyl ether, or MTBE, in summer blends of gasoline. The unleaded gasoline contract had been reformulated for summer with MTBE.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries confirmed traders' suspicions about the impact of a slowing economy on global demand by announcing that the fourth-quarter demand for its oil would be 320,000 barrels a day lower than previously forecast.

In 2007, OPEC expects demand for its crude to average 28.1 million barrels per day, or 800,000 barrels per day less than the 2006 average, in part because non-OPEC supplies are rising. As a result, some analysts believe the Vienna-based cartel, which is pumping close to 30 million barrels a day, may soon cut its output.

"If we get below $60, they're going to begin to take away barrels," Guido said. "But it's not going to make a difference."

...more: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060919/oil_prices.html?.v=15

Are these reasonable vehicles for oil trading?
Any comments
Thanks


OILB.L ETFS OIL SECURITIES London 8:17 $54.58 -2.03 -3.59%
OILW.L WTI ETFS OIL SEC London 8:10 $60.97 -2.08 -3.30%

i havent traded them yet. but i reckon they are possible.

however, USO in the US may be more liquid, with lower transaction costs

= = =

Front Street Energy and Power Hedge Fund: +.5% August Return 4.6% YTD Return AUM for Fund: $335,000,000 U.S.


Front Street Energy and Power continued to provide a positive return, despite the troubles within the oil and natural gas market. The fund continued its bearish stance on oil companies which led to an increasing short position within this segment. The short position allowed the fund to remain flat on its exploration and production investments. The fund continues to load up on natural gas orientated companies which are at lows. The believe is that with winter coming inventory levels should be reduced bringing the gas market more into balance. From an equity risk perspective, we see the risk downside as minimal, based on the lows of where gas equities are currently priced.

Profit from the Big Drop in Oil Prices

Over the past several weeks, oil and gas prices have fallen sharply, prompting many to conclude that the bull market has finally run its course. With oil prices back to $60 per barrel, most are now calling for prices to fall back below $50, and some see even lower prices dominating in the years to come. As there is no real evidence that suggests an abatement of those forces that pushed oil prices up from below $20 six years ago to near $80 dollars last month, such rosy forecasts really amount to wishful thinking. The recent sharp decline is likely technical in nature, providing long-term investors with an excellent opportunity to build on established positions, or create new ones.

Oil’s impressive gain over the past six years has attracted "hot money" from leveraged speculators, particularly hedge funds piling into the market. This has resulted in increased volatility, particularly on the down side. This week we learned that Amaranth Advisors, a $10 billion dollar hedge fund, blew up, losing better than 60% of its value as a result of highly leveraged natural gas bets that turned bad. The unwinding of these huge positions obviously exacerbated recent declines, and will likely help form a significant bottom to this correction. It is important to remember that the speculative money is not the driving force behind the underlying move. The fundamentals have been powering the energy market for years, and will likely continue doing so regardless of how many speculators tag along for the ride.

I have been buying oil and gas related stocks for my clients since 1996, long before the recent run up caught most investor’s attention. In the 2002-2003 run-up to the invasion of Iraq, when most strategists were calling $30 oil a temporary fluke, reflecting a “war premium,” I agued the reverse. My take was that oil prices actually reflected a “war discount” and that rather than falling when the war ended, oil prices would rise even further. See my commentary from March 13th 2003 entitled “There is no "war premium" in the price of oil!” available here. In fact, I was one of the first on Wall Street to officially forecast oil prices of $50 dollar per barrel. After that forecast proved accurate, and most top Wall Street strategist were calling for prices to collapse below $30 per barrel, I was one of the few who correctly forecast the move above $70 per barrel. In a Barron’s article dated November 2, 2004, with oil trading just shy of $50 per barrel, and oil strategist at both Merrill Lynch and Salomon Brothers predicting a quick return to the $30 level, I was the only one quoted who accurately predicted oil prices rising to $70 per barrel.

There are two primary reasons that I still believe oil prices will continue their long-term ascent. First, years of cheap oil, and the false perception that prices would stay low indefinitely, lead producers to under-invest in exploration and development, and consumers to over-utilize energy resources. As a result, it will take a long time for supply and demand to readjust to the new reality, ensuring high prices for years to come.

Second, once Asian central banks finally allow the U.S. dollar to collapse, Asian demand for oil will surge. That is because appreciated local currencies will not only make oil cheaper for Asian consumers to buy, but result in risings living standards throughout the region. As the values of their savings and incomes rise, more affluent Asian consumers will then be able to afford more energy utilizing products. Currently the purchasing power of Asian consumers is being suppressed by their governments' foolish policies of propping up the purchasing power of American consumers.

Since there will not be enough new oil to satisfy the explosion in Asian demand, it will instead be satisfied with oil previously consumed by Americans. The flip side of increased purchasing power for Asians will be decreased purchasing power for Americans. As a result, precisely when oil gets cheaper for Asians, it will get more expensive for Americans. As the value of Asian wages and savings rise, those of Americans will fall. The extra oil consumed by wealthier Asians will no longer be consumed by poorer Americas, who will therefore be forced to conserve and economize in ways currently unimaginable.

As the yuan or yen price of oil drops, the U.S. dollar price of oil will surge. Therefore American investors, who hold oil investments instead of dollars, will in effect be able to preserve their purchasing power and protect their current standard of living. One of the best ways to accomplishing this is by purchasing Canadian energy trusts. These unique investment vehicles offer tax-advantaged, consistently high, monthly income directly related to the price of oil and gas. With many funds off 20% or more from their recent highs, now is likely an excellent time to invest. To find out more about Canadian energy trusts, to see how adding them to your investment portfolio might benefit you, and for a fuller explanation of both the risks and rewards of investing, download my latest research report “Energy & Double Digit Yields: Canadian Energy Trusts Explained” by clicking here. This compressive, exclusive report, is offered free of charge, and is a must read for anyone considering investing in this area.

Courtesy of Peter Schiff

Oil still going down. Hell, anyone would think it was going out of fashion!