http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...ors.aspx?page=1
Jubak's Journal7/20/2007 12:01 AM ET
No help for gas buyers -- or oil investors
Rising oil prices and increased refinery costs mean gas prices will keep going up. Yet record profits mean little to investors, since companies don't have a good place to reinvest the cash.
iteresting article on the oil industry; recommends FTO
makes the point that alot of big oil co's are like annuities

(from Advfn's Really Useful OIL thread):

briarberry - 21 Aug'07 - 15:57 - 239:
Hurricane Dean - almost direct hit on Cantarell oil complex - although it's slowed to Cat2

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/images/cantarell.jpg

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?3day#contents

ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/211443.shtml

briarberry - 21 Aug'07 - 16:48 - 240:
Pemex said it was evacuating more than 14,000 workers and shutting in 407 wells that produce 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas on a daily basis, the New York Times reported.

energyi - 21 Aug'07 - 19:03 - 241:
Zapata George has revised his Oil forecast from $84 to $110/120
Natgas to $16

http://www.ZapataGeorge.com

:: OIL thread : http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=10522648

So, is oil due a correction? BP announce today a "dreadful" 3rd quarter and now according to Saudi Arabia's oil minister, "The market is in turmoil, let's leave it at that''.

(I'm looking to update these cycles):

The article suggested cycles of: 2.4 years, 8.3 years, and 30 years
This projects an coming 30-year peak in 1980 +30 years = 2010, the same year as an 8-yr. Low?

30 year cycle lows:
a. 1931 & 1933 : say, 1932
b. 1962 ??
c. 1992 ?/ article said: 1993-95

If the low was 1962, not much happened until about 10 years later.



Long sideways movement: 1957 to 1970
8.3 year Lows, per article estimates:
1960-1, 1969, 1977, 1986, 1994, 2002-3, 2010? (competes with the 30 year cycle high!)

The article projected an important low in 1993-95. (more detail from article?)
Actual low came a few years later , near the end of 1998



...so 8.3 years later would be, early 2007, and guess what we saw:



So may there is something in these cycles after all!

The 2.3?? year cycle is more difficult to track...
And I will be looking into it'seffectiveness further in subsequent posts.

But those longer cycles would now suggest;

+ A Big Peak about 2010, and
+ An 8.3 year cycle around April 2015

Latest Simmons presentation:

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/simmon...ons042308.html#

Essential

My Longer term target is ... $400 oil by 2012/3.

Look at this chart, multiply by 10



$13 oil : $130 oil now
$40 oil : $400 oil within 3-5 years, maybe much sooner

(added to header)

I heard a podcast with Harry Dent Jr.
And he spoke about a "29-30 year cycle" and a possible oil peak in 2009-2010.
No specific level was mentioned. other than "much higher."

Soros article in todays FT

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5dbd0ffe-30ef-11...0077b07658.html

Billionaire investor George Soros is to tell US lawmakers on Tuesday that “a bubble in the making” is under way in oil and other commodities and that commodity indices are not a legitimate asset class for institutional investors.

He is expected to tell a congressional committee that rising oil prices are the result of a number of fundamental changes and factors in the market, but that the relatively recent ability of investment institutions to invest in the futures market through index funds is exaggerating price rises and creating an oil market bubble.

I find commodity index buying eerily reminiscent of a similar craze for portfolio insurance which led to the stock market crash of 1987,” Mr Soros will tell the Senate commerce committee, according to a draft text seen by the Financial Times.

“In both cases, the institutions are piling in on one side of the market and they have sufficient weight to unbalance it. If the trend were reversed and the institutions as a group headed for the exit as they did in 1987 there would be a crash.”

MORE

He's not the only one.

Oil seems to be flexing its muscles today up 9% ish.

Nickel up 18%

Have commodities and energy turned the corner?

How do you measure Opec’s crude oil supply amid secrecy and dishonesty?

http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/05/...erber-has-died/

Conrad Gerber, who died on April 25, responded to that question for almost 30 years, providing the oil market with a glimpse of clarity from his Geneva-based Petro-Logistics company.

He made a living from a peculiar characteristic of the oil market: the most reliable data for Opec monthly supply comes not from the cartel member’s energy ministries, but from so-called secondary sources - a network of spies watching, binoculars in hand, the movement of tankers in and out of the world’s ports.

Opec’s members do no trust each other supply numbers, so even themselves used Petro-Logistics data, among others. The confusion and distrust about production is so deep that Opec members in the past regularly request data about fellow members’ production from the International Energy Agency. This is ironic because the IEA, created after the 1970s oil shocks as the western countries’ oil watchdog, is basically to Opec what Nato was to the Warsaw Pact.

-------------------------------------
His last chat to ft is here

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/840a7d02-bcec-11...00779fd18c.html

Venezuela is so unsure about how much it pumps that from time to time the central bank calls the oil ministry to correct the numbers because there are too few dollars in the vaults to support their inflated oilproduction claims, industry insiders say.

You have to laugh at Ven!

I'm going long on WTI



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