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BradleyWong
Hong Kong to become part of Mega-City in Pearl River Delta

There is a plan. Announced today. HK to combine with 5 other cities to become like SF Bay area.

..
Rail Links: http://johomaps.com/as/china/guangdong/pea...ltametro_en.jpg

These cities to be included:
========
Guangzhou, and Foshan (in Guangdong). : High-end industry
Hong Kong and Shenzhen, .................... : Finance and Service sectors (trade, logistics, air & sea transport)
Macau and Zhuhai, ............................... : Tourism and leisure

Better rail connections planned, so from any one city to the other is only one hour or less

Three pairings planned, as above. Plan called "a major step forward", and may help HK win govt. support
to boost its position as an international financial center

(added links, below):
= = = = =
LINKS:
China's Rail Network : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transpor...public_of_China
Guangdong area map : http://maps.google.com.hk/maps?hl=en&tab=wl
BradleyWong
Anyone see the new classic film called "Ip Man"?

You can see what looked like Old Foshan.


Very beautiful fantasy city - before the Japanese came
DrBubb
This concept will help drive big spending on infrastructure: Mainly rail and bridges, I suppose.

And will help bring Kowloon, and even Lantau towards a more central role in the region
Dubai
I once bought a bottle of "wine" called "wine of the three snakes" in a supermarket in She Kou. It was called what it was because.... it had three largish dead snakes coiled in the bottom of the bottle.

There was one with rat fetuses in too, but I shied away from that.

Doesn't add much to the topic, but I couldn't resist!
BFS
I had to go to Shenzhen recently. I couldn't help but feel the gulf between HK and the others over the border. Its just too obvious. Everything is different. I wonder how well the integration can work with this gulf of difference. One can know straightaway whether one is walking on the soil of HK side or not. I hope its not me being biased having lived in HK for a while, but I just felt the difference in too many ways that I wasn't sure how the integration is going to work out. I was told Shanghai has 40 million people, so may be HK sees no future without becoming part of a mega city of over 20 million people with Shenzhen and even mega more people linking with Guangzhou.
DrBubb
It IS different - but less different than 5-10 years ago,
They are headed towards integration, and once the borders come down, they will be moving together fast.

Two things may help fuel HK's next boom:

+ An initiation of the "freight train"- allowing Chinese to invest in the HK market
+ The integration of HK with Shenzhen, Macau/Zhuhai and the mainland,

This may push prices up towards the expected 2015 property peak.

Just my hope so far- no guarantees. But wait for others to catch onto this potential
Drunken Tiger
On recent visits to China, I felt that the atmosphere/culture in HK was light years away from that of the rest of China: Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou etc (and no offence to mainland China here!) Instantly on arrival in HK you pick up on a civic culture and a general freedom of expression (even political to a certain extent), not to mention standards of public behaviour (general manners, spitting, pushing etc) that are quite different. On my last visit to HK (Dec 07) Falun Gong were demonstrating outside the railway station, candidates for local elections were displaying their posters along the road, and internet access in Kowloon library was free. And of course no communist-style slogans and banners exhorting the workers to do this and that for the motherland.

Am I missing something, or are we talking about more than economics here?
DrBubb
HK people do not have true democracy, in the sense that they do not vote for their paramount leader,
but there is nevertheless alot of economic and political freedom in Hong Kong.

China has made great strides in its economic freedoms, but political freedoms lag behind.

Interestingly, you should compare Shenzhen with Singapore, and you may find that Singapore is closer to Shenzhen
in its LACK of some political freedoms than it is to HK.
BradleyWong
Hong Kong "most competitive" city in China - South China Post

1/ Hong Kong
2/ Beijing
3/ Shanghai
4/ Shenzhen
5/ Taipei
6/ Guangzhou
7/ Macau
8/ Hangzhou
9/ Tianjin
10/ Dalian

"Hong Kong has handled the impact of the global financial crisis better than any other Chinese city and remains by far the most competitive city."

HK: "safest, most internationalised, most charitable... and has the most credible government."

But HK: "has slipped to 7th for growth competitiveness"

Big mainland cities are gaining on HK. "Shenzhen ans Shanghai could post double-digit growth while Hong Kong appears to be headed for a contraction."
DrBubb
QUOTE (BradleyWong @ Dec 31 2008, 02:36 PM) *
Hong Kong "most competitive" city in China - South China Post
1/ Hong Kong
2/ Beijing
3/ Shanghai


Okay, but maybe the "most pessimistic" city also. This per the favored source, SCMP

Countries and Regions with the highest percentage of respondents
who believe that 2009 will be Worse than 2008:

Hong Kong : 67%
Iceland..... : 67%
Singapore. : 63%
Ireland..... : 61%
Greece..... : 60%
Croatia..... : 56%
Serbia...... : 53%
U.K. ......... : 52@
Holland .... : 52%
Ukraine .... : 52%

"Just 12 months ago, after it came first in the global ranking for optimism"
This time last year, "71 per cent felt optimistic" now it is 79%, vs. 25% in mainland China

(I wonder what it is in the US, which probably SHOULD top the list now)
DrBubb
OFFICE RENTS - The World's Top 10 Cities

(Price is: US$ per sq.ft)

'08 / City-------- --2008-- --2007--
. 1 / Moscow.... : 255.70 : 192.70 : +32.6% ... 3
. 2 / London..... : 186.20 : 275.70 : - 32.5% ... 1
. 3 / Hong Kong : 185.20 : 195.90 : -- 5.5% ... 2
. 4 / Tokyo....... : 165.40 : 138.10 : +19.8% ... 6
. 5 / Dubai....... : 157.20 : 104.10 : +51.0% .. 12
. 6 / Mumbai..... : 140.20 : 168.40 : - 16.7% ... 5
. 7 / Singapore. : 127.70 : 137.00 : -- 6.8% ... 8
. 8 / Kiev.......... : 125.60 : 109.30 : +14.9% .. 11
. 9 / Paris......... : 125.20 : 136.40 : -- 8.2% ... 9
.10 / Abu Dhabi. : 125.20 :. 76.60 : +63.4% .. 29

Huge rise in Abu Dhabi, while London got clobbered, largely on FX moves
BradleyWong
Beijing reveals blueprint for delta's economic growth

Globally competitive : "most vigorous area in the Asia-Pacific by 2020"

CONVERGENCE pursued through:
urban planning, rail networks, information networks. energy base & urban water supply

"test bed for deepening reforms, & opening to outside world"

However, slowdown continues: 62,400 firms out of business,
and about 600,000 migrant workers have left the region

GOALS:
================ ( 2012 ) / ( 2020)
Per Capita Annual Output: 80,000 / 135,000
Average lifespan............: 78 yrs. / 80 yrs.
Pct. of Area urbanised....: 80 pct. / 85 pct.
% citizens w/ social security........ / 100%

Beijing agrees to pay 5bn yuan so work can start on bridge soon

Central govt stumped up Rmb 5bn, 2/3 of Guangdong's share / total: hk$37.45 bn
Bridge can start by year-end
"Guangdong doesnt want to pay for a project "more helpful to HK"
RATIOS:
HK: 42.9% / Guangdong 44.5% / Macau 12.5%

Gd. will only pay Rmb 2 bn, now, with 58% financed by private consortium

- Bradley Wong Wai-man
DrBubb
BIG IDEAS - what is needed to brighten HK's future ?
=======

Hong Kong's success has been built on :

+ Opportunistic property development
+ Speculative stock market investment
+ Entrepot cargo shipment
+ Financial services for mainland China businesses

In an environment, where the government was expected to play a minimal role.

In the future, more government involvement will be required, says in Today's SCMP:
Prof. Joseph L.C. Cheng, and Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (HK Inst.of Ed.)

Challenge:
Erosion of HK's position as a trading platform for sourcing China goods,
and shrinking of cargo volumes.

Five Major adjustments are needed:

1/ People must be innovative, and "experimental" (investing in research, and willing to fail)
2/ With more govt. oversight, and tighter credit, HK-ers will; have to focus on value creation, not just speculation
3/ More co-operation will be needed in the midst of competition, not just self-centered behavior
... (This means cooperating with other cities in China, and elsewhere)
4/ See HK as a global city, with HK aiding China's global rise while benefitting from it
5/ Leaders need a "proactrive strategic mindset", traditionally, HK has not thought strategically

HK leaders need to set "visionary and motivating goals" (HK needs to find it's 'Obama voice')
DrBubb
POWER OF TRAINS - in connecting the Megacity
============

China gets on board multi-billion dollar railway project to speed up economy

BEIJING -- Travelling at 330 kilometers an hour on one of China’s fastest trains, businessman Ren Wenzuo had nothing but praise for a multi-billion-dollar plan to spin a web of new rail links across the country. “People nowadays want to have convenient ways of travel, and with more fast trains across China, they will bring convenience to everyone,” he said on board the service from Beijing to neighboring Tianjin.

Ren, 47, said a work trip to Tianjin now took him one day to complete, compared with two before the new line was introduced in August, when the train service took twice as long.

More is to come as China recently approved a two-trillion-yuan (US$300 billion) investment in its railway infrastructure over the next two years in a bid to spur growth in the face of the global economic crisis.



Longer term, China is aiming to have 120,000 kilometers (74,500 miles) of tracks laid down by 2020, up from 79,000 today, deputy railway minister Lu Dongfu told reporters last month.

Investing in infrastructure is a good way to spur growth amid the current economic woes, said Hu Xingdou, economics professor at the Beijing University of Technology.

“The drop in exports is a situation that is very hard to change, consumer demand cannot be spurred very quickly, so investing in infrastructure becomes quite an effective method,” he said.

China’s economy is slowing dramatically, with the World Bank predicting the country’s growth rate will be just 7.5 percent next year, the lowest in nearly two decades.

China made a similar move at the end of the 1990s amid the Asian financial crisis by investing heavily in the road network across the country.

The huge cash injection in the rail system is expected to boost employment and demand for raw materials, and promote real estate as land and towns near the new railways are also developed.

“I estimate these investments in railways could contribute as much as two percent to the annual GDP,” said Hu.

But more than a way to spur growth in the face of the financial crisis, the railway investment is a much-needed cash injection in an industry that has been relatively neglected.

“China’s railways have long lagged in development, so rail transport is the bottleneck of the nation’s economic and social growth, the weak point of the transport industry, and urgently needs faster expansion,” said Lu.

..


China’s railway network is already one of the most extensive in the world, but it has come under pressure as the nation’s economy has boomed, giving many of the country’s 1.3 billion people more opportunity to travel.

Chinese New Year is a perfect illustration of the bottlenecks that grip the country’s railways, when scenes of havoc take hold at stations throughout the nation as people desperately try to get a place on a train to go home.

China’s vast territory, full of natural resources such as coal that need to be moved from far flung regions to the cities, also highlights the importance of the railway network in the country.

The nation is currently only able to satisfy around 35 percent of applications for freight transport, according to Wang Fang, China transport coordinator for the Asian Development Bank.

“If the rail system is improved in terms of its capacity and its service, the overall economy can benefit from cost savings, time savings, for both cargo and passenger transport,” she said.

But Joseph Cheng, professor of political science at the City University of Hong Kong, sounded a note of warning on focusing too heavily on infrastructure investment to spur economic growth at the expense of more important priorities.

“This is high time for China to spend some money on social services — education, services for the elderly, medical care, and not only infrastructure projects,” said Cheng

/see: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/asia/.../China-gets.htm
= = = = =
LINKS:
China's Rail Network : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transpor...public_of_China
DrBubb
QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 7 2009, 03:05 PM) *
OFFICE RENTS - The World's Top 10 Cities
(Price is: US$ per sq.ft)
'08 / City-------- --2008-- --2007--
. 1 / Moscow.... : 255.70 : 192.70 : +32.6% ... 3
. 2 / London..... : 186.20 : 275.70 : - 32.5% ... 1
. 3 / Hong Kong : 185.20 : 195.90 : -- 5.5% ... 2
. 4 / Tokyo....... : 165.40 : 138.10 : +19.8% ... 6

HK now has the top office rents in the world

London Toppled by Hong Kong as Most Expensive City for Offices

By Peter Woodifield

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- London lost its ranking as the world’s most expensive city for offices in 2008, supplanted by Hong Kong and Tokyo for the first time in nine years.

Falling rents in the U.K. capital combined with the pound weakening against the euro brought occupancy costs for prime offices in London’s West End down 23 percent to 1,403 euros ($1,783) per square meter annually, New York-based property broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. said in a report today. That compares with 1,743 euros per square meter in Hong Kong and 1,649 euros in Tokyo.

“The fall in rents and weak U.K. currency means that for overseas companies, London is now more affordable than it has been in years,” Cushman said.

The global financial crisis pushed rents lower in 16 percent of the world’s biggest cities as financial companies fired workers and cut back on the space they lease, Cushman said. Worldwide mortgage-related losses and asset write downs total more than $1.1 trillion.

London “has now felt the full impact of the credit and banking crisis,” Cushman said.

Costs fell 4 percent in Hong Kong compared with a year earlier and declined 19 percent in Tokyo.

“There seems little doubt that rents will continue to fall over 2009, perhaps at a faster rate than before,” said John Siu, general manager, Cushman & Wakefield Hong Kong.

/more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aTJDBwijT_R0
DrBubb
DISCUSSION TOPICS ???
=========

1/ HK's Culture
================
Sr David Tang has organised a one day public forum for Saturday 18 April to "save" the future West Kowloon Cultural district.

Link: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6499

Does HK have enough culture presently? If not, what is needed, and what should be done about it?


2/ Macau's Future
=================
Over 5,000 flats will be completed in Macau in the next year or so. This compares with about 10,000 in HK, and yet Hong Kong is about 16x larger.

The idea was that those units would be filled by expat workers, and wealthy Chinese, who would come to fill Macau's burgening casinos. But all those new casinos are not so full now, and work on several others has been halted.

Macau is now seeking a future beyond its heavy reliance on gaming. What might Macau's broader purpose be? And how might that compliment the changes that are coming to Hong Kong, and the entire Pearl River Delta area.
DrBubb
ANOTHER IDEA to promote HK's "World City" ambitions

Universities may be woed by land offers

HK is considering sites for foreign institutions to set up campuses.

"The administration's goal is to develop education as one of the city's new economic pillars."

"...more flexible land policy," suggests Lau Siu-kai, head of the Central Policy Unit (CPU), a government think tank.

Govt. hopes to attract: "world-class universities... to set up branches"

Harvard-China or Oxford-China on Lantau, perhaps?

== ==

The government wants to boost the development of six-value added industries:
+ education,
+ medical services,
+ environment,
+ innovation & technology
+ cultural & creative industries
+ food safety, and product testing & certification

CPU will have focus-group discussions from teh six industries with academics, researchers, govt. officials
BradleyWong
BRIDGE DEVELOPMENT to strengthen HK Hub Role

Alkin Kwong writes in South China Post...

HK is becoming more active in building its competitive strengths outside finance...
Infrastructure and logistics development are becoming extremely important

HK/Macau/Zhuhai bridge will bring thousands of mainland and HK travellers thru facilities daily.

BRIDGE PROXIMITY TO AIRPORT / an advantage for businesses and tourists

:: Hotels, logistics provisions, exhibition centres and shopping, tourist facilities

- should generate economic benefits and job opportunities for Tung Chung
- a "bridgehead" economy in TC?
- increase in economic and trade activities, logistics, transport networks, tourism

:: Essential : make the boundary crossing facilities accessible by: air, land, sea
- Boundary crossing will generate more transport facilities
DrBubb
QUOTE (DrBubb @ Feb 25 2009, 01:16 PM) *
BIG IDEAS - what is needed to brighten HK's future ?
. . .
In an environment, where the government was expected to play a minimal role.

In the future, more government involvement will be required, says in Today's SCMP:
Prof. Joseph L.C. Cheng, and Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (HK Inst.of Ed.)
. . .
2/ With more govt. oversight, and tighter credit, HK-ers will; have to focus on value creation, not just speculation

Anthony Cheung Bing-leung contributed another article in today's SCMP

SMARTEST EXPORT
HK has the potential to become a regional centre for excellence in education

"... the government is geared towards developing new economic pillars..."

Tensions:
+ Responding to local needs vs. attracting non-locals
+ Generous scholarships have attracted mainlanders (who now make up 90% of non-locals)
+ Educating non-locals can bring synergies, lifts standards, enrich learning and research
+ Learning in a cosmopolitan environment brings many benefits
+ There's a need for private educational institutions to step in after year 1
+ But local talent is as important as non-local
+ Standards must be maintained, so its not just about the money earned

"Does Hong Kong possess a knowledge-rich environment, and a free-thinking, inquisitive and creative ambiance that shoudl form the basis of a vibrant educational huib"?

/more articles: http://www.anthonycheung.org/policy/index.php
DrBubb
Rebound in sight for Hk Economy
- Look at these FX reserve Stats ! - from today's SCMP
======

"Hong Kong may return to economic growth this quarter after a year of contraction, the government's top economic analyst (Helen Chan) predicts."

Comes after a bad figure - HK's exports fell by 22.7 percent yoy in the first quarter, the worst slump in 55 years.

GDP Declines
Q4 : - 2.6%
Q1 : - 7.8%
Q2 : Could be positive, after the big decline in Q1
Previous episodes of decline lasted no more than 2-3 quarters

But HK should be more resilient than previous recessions because of its strong fundamentals:

+ Substantial current account surplus = 14% of GDP
+ Stable property market (thanks to low interest rates)
+ HK households have more cash on hand than in prior recessions
+ Accumulated HK$4.8 Trillion in net foreign assets = 285 % of GDP
.. (EAT YOUR HEARTS OUT, London and New York!)
DrBubb
PILLARS OF HK's ECONOMY - per Donald Tsang

Existing Four
1/ Financial services
2/ Producer and professional services
3/ Trading and logistics
4/ Tourism

New Six Pillars
5/ Medical services
6/ Educational services
7/ Testing and certification
8/ Innovation and technology
9/ Cultural and creative services
10/ Environmental services

TFEC recommendations to help?
TFEC: Task Force on Economic Challenges

= = =

"Knowledge is Power," answers Regina Ip, pushing foir more overt support,
and a stronger emphasis on Information and Communications Technology (ICT)

She says that Innovation and technology is not a pillar, since innovation is
needed everywhere.

"Hong Kong companies are well-placed to finf mainland partners in software
development, digital entertainment, online games, and internet based services

HK managers enjoy an edge in understanding international markets

"Should not dismiss technology just because manufacturing is all but extinct
in Hong Kong."
DrBubb
QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jun 22 2009, 09:35 PM) *
New Six Pillars
5/ Medical services
6/ Educational services
7/ Testing and certification
8/ Innovation and technology
9/ Cultural and creative services
10/ Environmental services

TFEC recommendations to help? / TFEC: Task Force on Economic Challenges


An editorial in today's SCMP clarifies this:

"Mr.Tsang has committed the government to finding four hospital sites* for the development of private medical services...
and two urban sites for sponsored, self-financed higher education institutions. Promises such as setting up a council on testing and certification within three months, to explore financial and tax incentives for private-sector investment in research and development, and to consider refitting old buildings for cultural use."

"...tougher action will be needed to make HK a more pleasant place in which to live, especially where curbing pollution, protecting our heritage, and ensuring cultural diversity are concerned."

*Likely sites are in: Tung Chung, Tai Po, Tseung Kwan O, and Wong Chuk Hang

(note: Taskforce member Mathias Woo Yan-wai said the biggest problem in implementation was the way that experts views on individual policy areas were often overshadowed by career bureaucrats who "didnt have a clue: about specifics)
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