Please excuse my French. But there is no reason for the DJIA not to shed, say, 25% in a day. Was it not for the PPT, of course. But how much is left of the Fed balance sheet? Hmmm...

Today Bill Gross, someone everyone listens to, warned of a financial tsunami. Meanwhile even SFWs seem to be less and less willing to prop up Western consumerism, e.g. Korea doesn't want to buy BAD loans from Merrill (... what do these Koreans think really??).

Then -3% on the Dow. So, tomorrow could be it. BLACK FRIDAY.





EDIT: grammar.

rubs hands, with wry grin & doom'n'gloom look on face.

DJ futures continuing to tank right now.

Back to commodities... up up and away



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7598924.stm

Can we get the rockets out now please

Commodities?

Everything is selling off today. Dash for cash as leverage unwinds.

Deflationary indication perhaps?

October is often a bad time for stock markets - this next leg down should see the FTSE go below 5,000

I understand Fannie and Freddie have to refinance $225Billion before 20th Sept.
There was a big cheer when they managed to find buyers for $5B last week, perhaps they are finding the rest a little harder to fix?

Not sure, but panicking I think caused by an over-leveraged hedge fund collapsing causing further price falls - now VERY oversold.

Could be. Tomorrow could be very interesting especially if Dow trades out of (below) the recent range 11225-11700.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/p...obreak11700.htm

If not, a small long could be fun.

EDIT** Ouch, just seen the futures price 11128

whats the betting on a contrarian bounce at some point tomorrow! Give up

Hope so. Aggrevated by a lot of deleveraging which unfortunately hits almost everything short-term but like a forest fire, provides some nice entry points therefater. I looking for some blood in the streets and a test of my metal to step in and buy (e.g. dividend plays).

I bought puts at this strike, alas some time ago, but should see a recovery soon as I see this as a firm turn in the bounce. Same issue with GBP:USD, I recovered at a good profit but got out far too soon (sold at 36p, now nearly 90p!) due to poor psychology (should let those winners run my boy). Still holding my GBP:JPY though and seeing a nice turn there. I've shorted all the US major indicies in anticipation of falls (e.g. DOW maybe to 9750). Been doing well with shorting the DAX over the last few months (seems like an "honest" index unlike the DOW). FTSE caught me out given its large resources component but this has now turned (my only equity holdings are in energy, commodities and PMs and they are hurting but I don't need the money right now and the situation will change). But then it's election year so who knows the depths they will go to to prop things up. Either way, its rubber band pulling time and things should snap back post election time. Time to start thinking about the March 09 expiry warrants.

Also moved my pensions into cash and will move into a SIPP (especially the protected element when this changes next month) as the overall trend is down (whether over time or just on Fridays!) and these pension guys think losing no more than their peers is a good performance! So a type of SG Bear Accelerator product looks an attractive conservative option for my SIPP for a bear market. Also feel like a Black Swan is about to come into view - feels like time for some sort of crystallising event as a dumbed down poster child for current times.

At least things are volatile. My biggest fear is nothing moves!

Non-farms tomorrow I think? Could be interesting - although the trick this year has been mostly to inflate them on the day and quietly revise later. And as for the birth and death model!

Made me burst out laughing. Excellent.

Just read my daily update from Robert McHugh at "www.technicalindicatorindex.com". Lots of sell words for the indicies and talk of heavy Plunge Protection Team Intervention Thursday. Sorry, no more as it's paid for!

Yep, getting very boring and hopefully will flop soon (currently being used by the market as an excuse not to look down into the abyss - denial and/or smoke cover for an exit). That trick can't last. That fiddle of theirs is sounding very bad - needs new strings! Same starting to happen in the UK with the recent ONS drumming by the Telegraph. You can fool some of the people some of the time but......

FTSE is going down like a lead anvil this morning......

Shorter's paradise. But commodities not really reacting yet. Can't have it all.

PPT at it again at the typical 12pm lunchtime Friday slot today. Marxist statists! I should stick to the DAX - far more transparent than those communists.

Some hinterland SWF might think they're making a killing here.

Someone sold into the suckers' rally.

It's Monday, but still.

Today doesn't look all that good so far:

At least the German traders show some humor:

http://www.spiegel.de/
Dax stürzt trotz Zinssenkung um fast sechs Prozent ab

nice one GF.

What's going on? It's back to where it started today. Is the PPT trying to stem this turd? I guess their $700bn cheque has just arrived in the post.
Or it's just a suckers' rally.

Oh ****!
Oh ****!
**** it! They're totally losing it.

Sorry, Goldfinger, is there any particular reason for that last outburst? Or is it just that the world economic system is royally shagged?

Speculation in another thread is that is has to do with GM. I think it could simply be that certain people wake up to the fact that this thing is not going away anytime soon.

Question is: what will Asia and Europe do tomorrow?

currently 2am (UK time10th oct, east markets have fallen 10% already.
so this black friday call could just be, after so many false alarms - the one.

lucky caller wins a nite with time to raise the rents.

Im in on this being the Blackest Friday yet...

Apparently Black is back in fashion this winter - except for accountants, for whom red is the current colour de rigeur

According to Bloomberg-
Mutual funds are getting hit with massive redemptions: People want cash, and cash only

.....and what are they doing/converting/recovering with that cash.......?

Buying tinned food, water and toilet paper....

What a beautiful Friday morning turd!





Life insurers starting to go belly-up.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Our pensions are safe, of course.

I speak with a trader I used to work with most mornings. He works an Asian desk for institutional clients. Here is what he just wrote me:

[09:59:12] ++++++++ says: holy cow
[09:59:21] ++++++++ says: the friday exit trade is maaasive
[09:59:32] ++++++++ says: we have sold entire portfolios for clients today
[09:59:35] ++++++++ says: just get me out

probably should have put this in here really (as there isn't a ftse thread)

have they suspended trading in the ftse ? looks way too calm on that bbc backdrop compared with 30 mins ago, people eating biscuits etc.

anyone got a live feed ?

Yes, it looks like it.

Meltdown time. Black Friday.

Is the PPT asleep. Or got their cheque delayed in the post? Or have they burned through the $700bn already?

There's bound to be a massive rally at some point though. At which point everyone will start cheering at saying it's over.

Then we'll get the next leg down ...

1929 starts looking like a walk in the park.

The PPTs globally can prevent daily 20% drops, but not monthly ones. Effect is the same.

I think in many ways its so much worse having the markets dropping 4-7% ish points every day for a week etc.

It really creates the recession/crash mentality and highlights the amount of bad news out there already and the fears of more to come.

---

Am expecting today to be the worse yet in terms of % drops....

There willl be a sucker rally (i think most likely once a new US president installed)

Then early next year (before end of year financials report) when they realise it doesnt matter who is in charge - CRASH

The bottom next year will be below anything we see in 2008 imo (maybe not by a lot - but lower and lots of retail deaths)

Errol, the picture in your sig blinds me and makes me angry at the same time.

I know, it's a pain in the ar$e Errol, sorry.

Russia Delays Stock Trading; Indonesia, Iceland, Austria, Thailand Halted
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

there was a suckers rally earlier, but at this point theres no rally because theres no obvious future.

ftse-3900: a good place for a low ... update

currently:

London time index value change %
FTSE 100 Fri 14:21 3920.39 -393.41 -9.12

Going to be testing that 3900 any moment... can't see it going up until the rumours on Morgan clear and the CDS auction for LEH completed...

Depending on the bad news over the weekend (GM bust?) etc. wouldnt suprise me if next stop is the 3500ish lows from the last crash.

WTF? Is the Bloomberg chart right? Dow loses 700, and then jumps back 500 a millisecond later?

Yep see my PPT thread, I can't believe people still don't see the intervention. The DOW just kept falling and was well below 8000 (7888), looked like they were going to have to close the market, intervention has to be the least damaging action.

They'll need another $700bn in no time. Nutters.

I'll remove it. Hang on ...

It makes me sick and very angry so perhaps it's time to see the back of it (and him, hopefully).