Oil Stocks to lead Oil lower?

// This thread has been a fragment- soon I will add some content //

As I have said elsewhere. I have been expecting Oil to make a peak somewhere between $140 and $160, and then head back towards $80-110. (Then, after the correction, I expect a huge move up in oil. I am currently targetting $400 per barrell for 2010-12.)

So were are we now in the oil cycle?
Crude prices have stopped their easy upthrust, and are now becoming more volatile. That is a change that normally markets a transition into a peaking marlet.

Here's WTI Crude (WTIC) ... see also: US Oil etf (USO)


The above chart shows more of a parabolic move, and less volatility than I thought it would.
Here's a daily chart of US Oil etf (USO) ... update

# # # Oil/USO is at the top of a channel (!!) # # #

COMPARE: US Oil/USO with the Oil Holder etf/OIH (index pf oil servioce stocks) ... update:USO-vs.OIH


The OIH tends to TURN a few days (to a few weeks) before OIH.

== CLOSER up charts below ! ===

= = CLOSE-UP = = =

The OIH tends to TURN a few days (to a few weeks) before OIH.

These turns may be more evident on this six months chart ... update



NOTICE: in the chart above:
1/
The second low (labelled "2") preceded at the largest and most powerful move UP in Oil/USO.
What is interesting about that low, is that the Oil Holders (OIH) had already begun an upthrust as USO was making its low.
To put it another way, that important Low was UNCONFIRMED by OIH.
2/
What we are seeing now is a high in oil (USO) which is not being confirmed by OIH , which is already falling away.

10 DAYS: Oil/USO versus OIH ... update


Investors began to sell OIH heavily yesterday. Could this be a warning that the Oil peak is coming within days?

That's interesting Dr. B - I was wondering what early indicators there maybe for an Oil pullback.

I've quite a few oil service stocks that Im tempted to take some profits on - maybe now's the time.

DrBubb, if and when oil pulls back, certainly if it goes bak to $100 a barrell or less, would you expect stock markets to bounce on the back of it? This is what I tend to believe may well happen as the price of oil falls, inflation fears in the market will diminish for a while and we will get a stock market recovery. It may be short lived, but I can see it happening.

A plausible scenario No. 6 - certailny a lower oil price would take some pressure off corporations in the short term.

Maybe Puplava will get his 'creamy filling' after all?

Im not entirely certain why the Oil Services have turned lower though. I can see why it could be an early indicator to lower Oil prices. But what has caused the drop in OIH?

Obviously 139/138 dpb is a first line of support here. I'm interested to see what happens here.

DrBubb - the hairs stand up on the back of my neck whenever I read a comment like yours:



Man I want to ride that wave. I feel I was getting ready for this spike but missed it. Surely I must be ready for the next one; a mouthwatering pospect !

And, as if by magic! Expect more of this sort of headline every time oil dips a little.

THE CRACK in Oil is widening

The move in Oil from $100 to $400, if we see it, will bring on a Depression in the US
as Trillions of dollars of investments in the suburbs need to be written off and restructured

The small move in OIH, and the "shape" of it :



...suggests that yesterday's jump in Oil may prove a selling opportunity.
I may buy some puts

Oil hits record near $147 as supply fears intensify
09:27 a.m. 07/11/2008 Provided by


By Santosh Menon

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil leapt $5 to a new record high near $147 a barrel on Friday, spurred by growing worries of threats to supplies from Iran and Nigeria and the possibility of a strike by Brazilian oil workers next week.

U.S. crude was $4.85 at $146.50 a barrel by 9:15 a.m. EDT, off highs of $146.90, taking gains in just two sessions to over $10. It rose $5.60 or 4 percent a barrel on Thursday in a late burst of buying activity.

London Brent crude was up $4.74 at $146.77 a barrel.

Leading the oil complex was ICE gas oil futures which climbed to a new record high of $1,336.75 a tonne amid strong demand for diesel and aviation fuel.

Analysts said the threat of supply disruptions provided the bullish backdrop, as the demand picture was unlikely to change much until after the Beijing Olympics.

"We continue to believe that the downside risk to oil prices remains relatively low until the non-OECD countries begin to show greater price and income elasticity response than has been evident to date," Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Sieminski said in a note.

HOT SPOTS

Oil, which had been on the retreat for much of the week, reversed course on Thursday as fears of supply disruptions from potential hot spots, OPEC members Iran and Nigeria, resurfaced.

A spate of missile tests by Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, in the last two days against a backdrop of rising tensions with Israel and the United States has left the oil markets worried.

Iran has threatened to strike back at Tel Aviv as well as U.S. interests in a key oil shipping route if it is attacked over its nuclear programme, which Israel and the West fears is aimed at making nuclear weapons.

The United States said it was ready to defend its allies.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, the main militant group in Nigeria's oil-producing region, said it was abandoning a ceasefire to protest against a British offer to help tackle lawlessness in the region.

Rebel attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria, the world's eighth-biggest exporter, have also been partly responsible for the nearly 50 percent rise in prices this year.

Investors have also flocked to oil and other commodities this year as a hedge against rising inflation and a weak dollar.

Workers at Brazil's Petrobras (PBR) threatened to launch a five-day strike next week that would affect all 42 Campos basin offshore platforms, which account for more than 80 percent of daily oil output of around 1.8 million barrels.

Oil has continued rising despite efforts by top exporter Saudi Arabia to raise production to its highest rate in three decades in an effort to tame oil prices.

Qatar Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah told Reuters on Friday that he saw no demand for the additional crude that Saudi Arabia had pledged to pump.

Just thought I'd add that it's also hurricane season!

SemGroup - i had this note from my broker:

"They lost somewhere between $2.4 and $3.2 billion trading oil futures.

Biggest trading loss in oil futures ever and no real media talk?"

It's amazing what a difference 3 weeks makes...

QUOTE

Simon Nixon made some interesting points in moneyweek last week. I think the most important point to make is that his arguments lend a lot of support to predictions some have made on here and elsewhere of surging oil prices again following this corrrection. I note with interest his comment about China and interest rates as I think a lot of commentators believe a slowdown in China is inevitable and that they have no weapons to fight a slowdown, such as lowering interest rates.

He says that he sees five big risks to a deterioration in global credit crisis. Two of these relate to Oil and China as follows:

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN...14?rpc=401&

Gustav starting to gather momentum it seems.


I would usually say this is a bullish signal for the oil price but i'm not convinced so close to the elections. t'will be interesting to watch the correlation

thank you

This chart - of the WTI-to-Gold ratio

...suggests you should be shifting from "expensive" Gold into "cheap" Oil.

I am calling for a possible Major Low in oil within a few days, and a few dollars.

THE CALL is on this thread:
http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5014

Crude Oil Forecast 2009- Time to Buy?
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7664.html

Interesting take on the POO situation. Possibly a very tradeable range of base building during 2009....

Nice move up in crude this morning.

Scrounged up some funds over weekend and bought in first thing after breakfast this morning. Sold out after lunch. Target $50/barrel. Sold around $49.7

Up 59% (in sterling) after costs. Funds ready for next trading range.

Anbody aware where I can see a chart of OILB based in GBP?

Can only find it in USD.