Good one,CC
You are spot on about those "highwater marks", and their impact on Hedgies.
Sadly, all the commodity and mining funds that are melting down are damaging
the market seriously. And recovery back to old levels will not be easy
Full Version: Frizzers In Moneyweek.
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Sep 10 2008, 01:20 PM) 
Interesting article. I have put "The Undercover Economist" on my wish list of books to buy.
QUOTE (wren @ Sep 11 2008, 01:46 AM)
Interesting article. I have put "The Undercover Economist" on my wish list of books to buy.
I haven't read that yet but I am currently reading a later book by him, 'The Logic Of Life' - I think more of the same sort of stuff by the sound of it. Well worth a read if you come across it, I will try and pick up his first one.
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Sep 12 2008, 12:32 PM)
I'm watching the tips...see if a bit of Frisby magic suddenly lights a firecracker up their
Is that your missus with your gold?
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Sep 12 2008, 12:32 PM)
I think you've answered your own question...
In short, the correction in gold and silver looks more like a case of deleveraging than the end of
a bull market. That’s not to say that gold’s woes will end anytime soon. We are in a credit contraction
and, as market historian Bob Hoye points out, “credit contractions can go on for far longer and
be far more painful than anyone thinks”.
Why should investors buy or even hold now? If you think prices will fall, why not come back in then?
Just a general investing question really - as a long term 'buy-and-hold' type investor, it was quite a revelation to me that rather than watch my stock investments fall and then recover, I made the decision last August-November to liquidate my entire holding and sit on the sidelines for cheaper prices.
I suppose it all depends on how much certainty you hold to short-medium term views against longer term certainty?
EDIT: clearly if you have physical as an insurance policy then that is an entirely different matter.
Well done for getting out.
QUOTE
EDIT: clearly if you have physical as an insurance policy then that is an entirely different matter.
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Sep 13 2008, 09:54 AM)
Well done for getting out.
Ahhh. But I'm talking about 'insurance' for the Armageddon scenario - whilst you're talking about 'investment'.
The problem with precious metals is that they generate near-religious fervour among their investors, many of whom
are ardent conspiracy theorists. “We’re protecting ourselves against the paperprinting central bankers,” they say. “The
financial system is about to collapse.” “Zimbabwe, Argentina, Weimar Germany, here we come.” And so on.
An end-of-the-world, siege mentality has developed.
But regardless of the rights and wrongs of these views, it doesn’t do to become emotionally attached to any investment, be it stocks, property or gold. The best financial decisions, especially in a volatile market, are usually made in the cold light of day, particularly when wedded to a tried and proven investment method. The worst are made in a fit of greed or fear. Yet the fervour gold stokes makes it hard to make a detached decision about the metal.
Cuthbert, did you get your coffee through an ETF?
http://www.etfsecurities.com/csl/classic/etfs_coffee.asp
http://www.etfsecurities.com/csl/classic/etfs_coffee.asp
No, I didn't. But coffee sold off hugely today - due no doubt to the liquidation in the ETFs.
Money week did a great article some time this year which included a chart and a simple explanation of the phases of a bubble, I think it was one of yours Dom.
I book marked it but I now get a blank page which I think has probably occured as a result of MW re-jigging their webby. I've tried searching under your name but to no avail.
I've managed to persuade the in laws to protect themselves and would like to forward the link on to highlight the importance of getting into PM's before the mania phase.
Anyone...... ?
I book marked it but I now get a blank page which I think has probably occured as a result of MW re-jigging their webby. I've tried searching under your name but to no avail.
I've managed to persuade the in laws to protect themselves and would like to forward the link on to highlight the importance of getting into PM's before the mania phase.
Anyone...... ?
Yes, change of website led to loss of articles.
Here it is:
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrig...s%20Bubbles.pdf
And here's my latest:
http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice...rade-53178.aspx
Here it is:
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrig...s%20Bubbles.pdf
And here's my latest:
http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice...rade-53178.aspx
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Sep 20 2008, 03:06 PM)
Yes, change of website led to loss of articles.
Here it is:
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrig...s%20Bubbles.pdf
And here's my latest:
http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice...rade-53178.aspx
Here it is:
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrig...s%20Bubbles.pdf
And here's my latest:
http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice...rade-53178.aspx
Thanks Dominic, I like that chart so much I'd love to see it framed and on my study (spare bedroom
) wall in my humble abode.... on the to do list. Superb Fibonacci article BTW, ATB
Are hedge funds really going to stay short on banks and lose money for themselves and any banks who may still lend to them --
Particularly when the coming of the short selling ban was well publicised in advance --
Doubt the hedge funds left themselves exposed to any great degree.
Particularly when the coming of the short selling ban was well publicised in advance --
Doubt the hedge funds left themselves exposed to any great degree.
QUOTE (walden @ Sep 24 2008, 12:27 PM)
Are hedge funds really going to stay short on banks and lose money for themselves and any banks who may still lend to them --
Particularly when the coming of the short selling ban was well publicised in advance --
Doubt the hedge funds left themselves exposed to any great degree.
Particularly when the coming of the short selling ban was well publicised in advance --
Doubt the hedge funds left themselves exposed to any great degree.
But did you see the suckers' rally that ensued on Friday?! Even a hardened short trader is going to struggle to hold onto positions with that kind of movement.
BTW, nice piece Dominic. Quite brave to quote cgnao to the outside world, I thought.
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Sep 24 2008, 11:51 AM)
This scenario has already played out in microcosm here in Ireland.
To give an example, Wednesday/Thursday of last week, Bank of Ireland's share price fell to €3.78 - its lowest in about twenty years - in response to a company announcement that its dividend would be halved.
On Friday, the Irish regulator announced a ban with immediate effect on short selling financial stocks. In fairness, there wasn't much else it could do with similar bans having already been introduced in the major markets worldwide. As shorts were obliged to cover, the price recovered to €5.30 - a gain of over 40% in one day. However, at the time of writing, most of the short term gain has been given up with the price back down to €4.15.
Now the banks are in the position that they are almost back where they started, but further weakness in the share price cannot be blamed on the nefarious short sellers, and any future slide in the price will not be mitigated by shorts covering their positions to take profits.
cgnao makes Moneyweek. What do y'know.
It would be great if you could do a profile of cgnao and a history of how he reached his positions so early in a future edition...including a smattering of his well known phrases that encapsulate his views and cast iron certainty .... '100% correct, guaranteed', 'it's baked in the cake', '1. Don't panic, 2. Panic first', 'Got gold?'
Well done guys.
It would be great if you could do a profile of cgnao and a history of how he reached his positions so early in a future edition...including a smattering of his well known phrases that encapsulate his views and cast iron certainty .... '100% correct, guaranteed', 'it's baked in the cake', '1. Don't panic, 2. Panic first', 'Got gold?'
Well done guys.
Yeah and everyone's going bonkers about it over at HPC
jeez
It's like a friggin nut house over there - seems everyone's completely lost it since the HPC has been "confirmed"
jeez
It's like a friggin nut house over there - seems everyone's completely lost it since the HPC has been "confirmed"
A very humbling piece today Dominic - both for you and for me
Why I should have sold my junior mining stocks / What next for junior miners?
Why I should have sold my junior mining stocks / What next for junior miners?
Yeah I saw that.
But what about another age old investment saying... "value will out"
I believe that that still holds and in the case of some junior miners it will come true.
The AIM mining sector and a lot of small caps in general seems to have been abandoned by institutional investors. Sooner or later, probably later, value will tempt them back
But what about another age old investment saying... "value will out"
I believe that that still holds and in the case of some junior miners it will come true.
The AIM mining sector and a lot of small caps in general seems to have been abandoned by institutional investors. Sooner or later, probably later, value will tempt them back
I ain't sellin' diddly
I hold Jinshan and Capital Gold. I also hold physical gold and silver and I'm damned if some chart is gonna convince me that the central banks and their die-hard profligacy will culminate in the death of the gold bull. Has CC thrown in the towel on physical ?
I hold Jinshan and Capital Gold. I also hold physical gold and silver and I'm damned if some chart is gonna convince me that the central banks and their die-hard profligacy will culminate in the death of the gold bull. Has CC thrown in the towel on physical ?
QUOTE (Justin thyme @ Oct 22 2008, 03:29 PM)
Has CC thrown in the towel on physical ?
No, his base currency is gordon brown's peso (TM DrBubb), it's a clever ploy to get US holders to sell up so we can buy in much cheaper
QUOTE (Justin thyme @ Oct 22 2008, 03:29 PM)
I ain't sellin' diddly
I hold Jinshan and Capital Gold. I also hold physical gold and silver and I'm damned if some chart is gonna convince me that the central banks and their die-hard profligacy will culminate in the death of the gold bull. Has CC thrown in the towel on physical ?
I hold Jinshan and Capital Gold. I also hold physical gold and silver and I'm damned if some chart is gonna convince me that the central banks and their die-hard profligacy will culminate in the death of the gold bull. Has CC thrown in the towel on physical ?
Yep im holding my junior golds too
even bought back in to gold.Dominic read my mind regarding the hold on to gold if your currency in the pound sterling. I had seen many bearish post about POG in terms of the dollar but no one replied to my posts saying "OK but what about when you look at it in pound sterling". Cheers Dominic
Im holding on to my physical silver too
I think this may be posted elsewhere but - larry seems pretty keen on silver
See approx 1hr 15min in
http://tfnn.s3.amazonaws.com/TOS101708.mp3
I think this may be posted elsewhere but - larry seems pretty keen on silver
See approx 1hr 15min in
http://tfnn.s3.amazonaws.com/TOS101708.mp3
Regarding the last article, not sure if silver should be a 'sell' anytime soon. In retrospect, it would have been one at $20/oz. But we're now at approx. $9.50/oz. I think averaging in is the thing to do. And, as I have said before, I am happy to buy the entire world silver stock at $0/oz, or even at negative prices.
QUOTE (Layman @ Oct 22 2008, 01:21 PM)
A very humbling piece today Dominic - both for you and for me
Why I should have sold my junior mining stocks / What next for junior miners?
Why I should have sold my junior mining stocks / What next for junior miners?
I thought it was a very honest article, but here's the main reason (and there are many others) why logical reasoning doesn't fit. The default state of markets, as Bob Prechter says, is crazy. We are seeing plenty of that now.
QUOTE (No6 @ Oct 22 2008, 07:56 PM)
I thought it was a very honest article, but here's the main reason (and there are many others) why logical reasoning doesn't fit. The default state of markets, as Bob Prechter says, is crazy. We are seeing plenty of that now.
Is this a case of TA being of limited use in these markets?
QUOTE (GTG @ Oct 22 2008, 08:17 PM)
Is this a case of TA being of limited use in these markets?
The longer timeframe charts in the article are worth taking note of as the MA's look pretty convincing. However, the volatility in the market that we are currently seeing makes any short term TA a nightmare.
QUOTE (No6 @ Oct 22 2008, 08:47 PM)
The longer timeframe charts in the article are worth taking note of as the MA's look pretty convincing. However, the volatility in the market that we are currently seeing makes any short term TA a nightmare.
Thanks, that more or less confirms what I was thinking. These last few days I've been holding off going short on the US indices expecting a decent bounce just to see profit opportunies on the short (trend) side go wasted. Now I'm afraid to go short.
Happy days.
QUOTE (GTG @ Oct 22 2008, 11:12 PM)
Thanks, that more or less confirms what I was thinking. These last few days I've been holding off going short on the US indices expecting a decent bounce just to see profit opportunies on the short (trend) side go wasted. Now I'm afraid to go short.
Happy days.
Happy days.
With the volatility in the market right now one of the big problems is that you can call it right, but where do you put your stop when for example the Dow can move a 100+ points either way in a minute? You could call it short and the end of the trend might give you several hundred points, but at the start you might be well down on a bounce in the opposite direction and your stop would probably be triggered. For example, on the one minute chart for the Dow at 7.00pm tonight, the high was 8384, the low 8335, 49 points difference in one minute. In the last 5 minutes the Dow has fallen over 100 points. You can trade this, but you have to be brave.
Had you gone short today you would have made money but you would probably need generous stops on the entry point to keep you in the trade, especially if you get caught on a bounce (for example the Dow had an uptrend of about 130 points for 20 minutes shortly after 6pm).
QUOTE (No6 @ Oct 23 2008, 07:11 PM)
With the volatility in the market right now one of the big problems is that you can call it right, but where do you put your stop when for example the Dow can move a 100+ points either way in a minute? You could call it short and the end of the trend might give you several hundred points, but at the start you might be well down on a bounce in the opposite direction and your stop would probably be triggered. For example, on the one minute chart for the Dow at 7.00pm tonight, the high was 8384, the low 8335, 49 points difference in one minute. In the last 5 minutes the Dow has fallen over 100 points. You can trade this, but you have to be brave.
Had you gone short today you would have made money but you would probably need generous stops on the entry point to keep you in the trade, especially if you get caught on a bounce (for example the Dow had an uptrend of about 130 points for 20 minutes shortly after 6pm).
Had you gone short today you would have made money but you would probably need generous stops on the entry point to keep you in the trade, especially if you get caught on a bounce (for example the Dow had an uptrend of about 130 points for 20 minutes shortly after 6pm).
I see what you mean but I'm afraid I can't day trade with the broker I've got ATM, Selftrade. I was trying to swing trade with the US index ETFs but Selftrade are n't suitable for that either. No online dealing on US Stocks/ETFs and your stops and limits (placed over the phone)expire at the end of the trading day. I'm trying to do this inside my ISA while a look for another suitable plan manager/broker. When I joined up with them I was new to investing and did n't know what my style was going to be and wanted to secure my annual allowance, I'm in a similar position with my SIPP also. I asked for a recommendation here http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....=2981&st=60 but have n't had a reply as yet.
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Oct 30 2008, 04:42 PM)
Nice to read something without lots of numbers.
So even the really wealthy are suffering.
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Oct 30 2008, 02:42 PM)
So with all of the letters of credit drying up we will soon be back t families being the only ones who trust each other internationally. Someone with a bit of cash should install a son on each continent and create lines of credit. Oh, Wait, wasn’t that how the Rothschild’s started
"Francis Claessens is a Dutch multi-millionaire. He is one of the many super rich who emigrated to London over the last 15 years. As he sips on his white wine in his (rented) Mayfair flat, he has the relaxed, elegant and confident demeanour of a man several steps ahead of the game.
Earlier this year he set up a network for high net worth individuals - a wealth peer group - called Peers. To give you an idea of the financial clout of its members, to join you must have a minimum of £5m of investable assets - not net worth, investable assets - while Group 2 starts at £25m and Group 3 at £50m. That is, by no means, small fry."
== ==
I have been to a Peers Group meeting (but not as a "fully qualified member").
I was surprised how many "younger" people were there, and how many had been involved in banking
and finance. Maybe FC should re-run his qualification test (or rest it) at the end of the year.
I have thought of inviting Peers members to use a special section of GEI.
But would our existing members welcome them??
Earlier this year he set up a network for high net worth individuals - a wealth peer group - called Peers. To give you an idea of the financial clout of its members, to join you must have a minimum of £5m of investable assets - not net worth, investable assets - while Group 2 starts at £25m and Group 3 at £50m. That is, by no means, small fry."
== ==
I have been to a Peers Group meeting (but not as a "fully qualified member").
I was surprised how many "younger" people were there, and how many had been involved in banking
and finance. Maybe FC should re-run his qualification test (or rest it) at the end of the year.
I have thought of inviting Peers members to use a special section of GEI.
But would our existing members welcome them??
QUOTE
I have thought of inviting Peers members to use a special section of GEI.
But would our existing members welcome them??
But would our existing members welcome them??
I would prefer if they mingled unidentified with the rest of us.
Partly out of egalitarianism, partly because they may bring
usable knowledge to us paupers.
ABB
QUOTE (AgeingBabyBoomer @ Oct 31 2008, 03:42 PM)
I would prefer if they mingled unidentified with the rest of us.
Partly out of egalitarianism, partly because they may bring
usable knowledge to us paupers.
ABB
Partly out of egalitarianism, partly because they may bring
usable knowledge to us paupers.
ABB
if they did start using a special section, i think they would soon be drawn into other discussions here
QUOTE (DrBubb @ Oct 31 2008, 07:36 AM)
But would our existing members welcome them??
Sure - maybe they could prop up our junior miners !!
but
cgnao might scare them
Edit - cgnao "worries" me, so does Goldfinger !!!
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/stock...-now-14142.aspx
"Roosevelt made it illegal for Americans to own gold in 1933. He confiscated citizens' gold in exchange for dollars, then devalued the dollar. It must have been one of history's greatest thefts. But it was still possible for citizens to own Homestake – and look how the price gapped up in 1933 as the American government stole from its people. "
Thanks for that Mr Frisby, I hadn't considered that...
"Roosevelt made it illegal for Americans to own gold in 1933. He confiscated citizens' gold in exchange for dollars, then devalued the dollar. It must have been one of history's greatest thefts. But it was still possible for citizens to own Homestake – and look how the price gapped up in 1933 as the American government stole from its people. "
Thanks for that Mr Frisby, I hadn't considered that...
I will read the latest one when I get back later. Lots of charts and looks quite good.
Great to hear you feeling more positive about the gold indicies CC. That chart of Homestake vs the DOW is a real corker, a had me saying "Wow" as I ate my morning Pink Lady. I particularly like the way it performed after the initial 1929 sell off on basically kept on rising for the next half decade....
2009: gold stocks will be among the top performers - http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commo...2009-14196.aspx
QUOTE (Bimble @ Nov 26 2008, 11:45 AM)
"Roosevelt made it illegal for Americans to own gold in 1933. He confiscated citizens' gold in exchange for dollars, then devalued the dollar. It must have been one of history's greatest thefts. But it was still possible for citizens to own Homestake – and look how the price gapped up in 1933 as the American government stole from its people. "
Would miners have performed as well as they did in 1933 were it not for the confiscation of gold?
What if the citizens back then had the option of electronic gold (ETF's) as well as the real stuff?
Surely there would have been less of a rush into miners and more of a diversification between all three?
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Oct 30 2008, 02:42 PM)
Cuthbert, apologies if this sounds like a child inquiring about his Christmas present, but are you planning on doing a “What will happen in 2009” CWR this year? Last year’s show was superb. Bubb in particular was very accurate with his predictions although no one quite reasonably foresaw the unwinding we have seen since July this year.
This weeks Frizzers in MW
Just to point out similarities with oil - not in terms of personel but in terms of projects getting shelved what with the drop in current oil price as oil firms and investors are unwilling to take the risk. What with the supply side of oil naturally contracting this is likely to lead to a similar situation for oil.
Which means in a few years time, we could see mined commodity/PM prices going up at the same time as oil starts to go up.
QUOTE
But at this point a powerfully-voiced Scottish mining engineer in the audience burst out: “The average age of a mining engineer is close to 60. If mines start closing down now, these people are not coming back. They’re retiring. Where are the new mining engineers, the new geologists coming from? It’s all very well having colleges, but most of what you learn, you learn on the job. There’s no substitute for real world experience. The older people need to be there to train the kids. There’s no shortage of bankers and fund managers, but a mine can run without hedge fund managers. It’s all very well talking about a shortage of good deposits – the real shortage is of people capable of running operations.”
This met with a round of applause – and rightly so. At some time in the not-too-distant future, the impact of this generational loss of knowledge and skills will be felt and it will take a long time to claw back. And in the meantime, the lack of investment will make it harder to get resources out of the ground – which means the next upturn in commodity prices could come all the sooner.
This met with a round of applause – and rightly so. At some time in the not-too-distant future, the impact of this generational loss of knowledge and skills will be felt and it will take a long time to claw back. And in the meantime, the lack of investment will make it harder to get resources out of the ground – which means the next upturn in commodity prices could come all the sooner.
Just to point out similarities with oil - not in terms of personel but in terms of projects getting shelved what with the drop in current oil price as oil firms and investors are unwilling to take the risk. What with the supply side of oil naturally contracting this is likely to lead to a similar situation for oil.
Which means in a few years time, we could see mined commodity/PM prices going up at the same time as oil starts to go up.
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Dec 4 2008, 02:08 AM)
'Massive' thanks for that, Frizzers! Got some GORO the other day...
QUOTE (Cuthbert Calculus @ Dec 4 2008, 02:08 AM)
Thanks Frizzers. I appreciate you’re a busy guy but it would be fascinating to hear the usual suspects’ outlook for 2009.
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/e...onds-14218.aspx
Good article as always.
Normally I'm against any kind of trade barriers, but in the case of a trade-war with China, this could be good for the West. China has more to lose from a trade war, so let it happen.
1) Manufacturing would have to come back to the West, creating many new jobs
2) It would cause a flurry of price inflation, which we need right now
3) It is more ecologically sound to have manufacturing geo-located
4) Civil unrest in China is long overdue
The worst thing I can see is that our banks who are exposed to Chinese investment will suffer. But they are zombies already anyway, so 'so what'?
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