Chart ... update-weekly : alldata-weekly : alldata-monthly : daily
525p or so, I reckon. The monthly chart suggests about 520p
at 572p, they are reporting:
Yield: 3.72%
P/E Ratio: 10.22
Full Version: The BP thread
The BP thread : The BUY could be soon
Chart ... update-weekly : alldata-weekly : alldata-monthly : daily
525p or so, I reckon. The monthly chart suggests about 520p
at 572p, they are reporting:
Yield: 3.72%
P/E Ratio: 10.22
Chart ... update-weekly : alldata-weekly : alldata-monthly : daily
525p or so, I reckon. The monthly chart suggests about 520p
at 572p, they are reporting:
Yield: 3.72%
P/E Ratio: 10.22
520 will look attractive, but I read this today.
And in London today, oil heavyweight BP released a statement announcing third quarter oil and gas output of 3.8m barrels, a 0.6% drop and its fifth consecutive fall in output. The oil company announced that losses from its Prudhoe Bay oilfield in Alaska had outweighed the benefits of a benign hurricane season and new start-ups.
And in London today, oil heavyweight BP released a statement announcing third quarter oil and gas output of 3.8m barrels, a 0.6% drop and its fifth consecutive fall in output. The oil company announced that losses from its Prudhoe Bay oilfield in Alaska had outweighed the benefits of a benign hurricane season and new start-ups.
An alternative view. I think this guy would rather buy London property.
QUOTE
You've heard of "peak oil", the idea that world oil production is already close to or even at its peak. Now comes the idea of "peak profits", the possibility that oil profits too may have reached their zenith. After the spectacular returns of recent years, it may be all downhill from now on. On the face of it, the two things would seem incompatible. If production is about to go into decline, then, assuming demand continues to rise, prices would logically remain buoyant too, ensuring higher profits still.
Yet as the BP share price, which yesterday sank to a 52-week low, already reflects, it is more than likely that the record profits currently being chalked up in big oil won't last. This may be as good as it gets. BP yesterday admitted that its oil and gas production in the third quarter was down both on the previous three-month period and on a year earlier. We knew about lost production at Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, but there has also been a comparatively benign hurricane season, so analysts had been expecting some uplift.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...icle1800656.ece
Yet as the BP share price, which yesterday sank to a 52-week low, already reflects, it is more than likely that the record profits currently being chalked up in big oil won't last. This may be as good as it gets. BP yesterday admitted that its oil and gas production in the third quarter was down both on the previous three-month period and on a year earlier. We knew about lost production at Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, but there has also been a comparatively benign hurricane season, so analysts had been expecting some uplift.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...icle1800656.ece
There's often negative analysts commentary on/near important lows
BP has been slowly recovering, up 6-1/2 pence to 608 today.
520 looks some way off now, although if a general market correction happens, it might still get there.
520 looks some way off now, although if a general market correction happens, it might still get there.
From Friday's Guardian
Viewpoint Pressure on Browne to up the BP divi
I think BP is a great company and undervalued. You won't get stellar growth, but you will get a reliable stalwart. I topped up this week.
Viewpoint Pressure on Browne to up the BP divi
I think BP is a great company and undervalued. You won't get stellar growth, but you will get a reliable stalwart. I topped up this week.
BP...
drifting back towards the lows
My old target (525p or so) may be seen yet
But given the time elapsed, and the progress of the MAs,
I would raise the target to maybe 540-550p
drifting back towards the lows
My old target (525p or so) may be seen yet
But given the time elapsed, and the progress of the MAs,
I would raise the target to maybe 540-550p
The BP website looks very green.
http://www.bp.com/home.do?categoryId=1&contentId=2006973
But don't mention the safety issue in Texas. This has helped keep it's price adrift recently.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...amp;siteid=mktw
http://www.bp.com/home.do?categoryId=1&contentId=2006973
But don't mention the safety issue in Texas. This has helped keep it's price adrift recently.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...amp;siteid=mktw
"GALVESTON, Texas (MarketWatch) -- A Texas state judge ruled Friday that BP PLC (BP) must provide evidence showing that its Texas City refinery is safe.
District judge Susan Criss said that allegations that BP had cut corners in maintaining its refinery were "quite valid." Her comments came in a hearing Friday morning brought by plaintiffs who had previously settled claims with the London-based oil giant. The plaintiffs say BP has failed to promptly and adequately pay medical bills stemming from serious injuries sustained in a blast at the refinery on March 23, 2005.
The plaintiffs argue that BP has ignored its responsibility to maintain the plant, just as it has allegedly ignored the explosion victims' medical bills. "We think that pattern of conduct is continuing to leave the plant in an unsafe condition," said David Perry, a Corpus Christi, Texas, lawyer representing the plaintiff. "
District judge Susan Criss said that allegations that BP had cut corners in maintaining its refinery were "quite valid." Her comments came in a hearing Friday morning brought by plaintiffs who had previously settled claims with the London-based oil giant. The plaintiffs say BP has failed to promptly and adequately pay medical bills stemming from serious injuries sustained in a blast at the refinery on March 23, 2005.
The plaintiffs argue that BP has ignored its responsibility to maintain the plant, just as it has allegedly ignored the explosion victims' medical bills. "We think that pattern of conduct is continuing to leave the plant in an unsafe condition," said David Perry, a Corpus Christi, Texas, lawyer representing the plaintiff. "
Finally, here's a trade idea for those who like to buy UK stocks:
BP Plc.
i am just updating my charts, and it looks like the ideal BUY price would be 535-540p:
chart ... update
That is not far away. Some may want to start nibbling at 550p or higher
At 561p: Yield is: 3.74% ... P/E Ratio: 10.23 (EPS: 54.8p)
ideal buy is 536p (probably sometime in the next 1-2 weeks)
at 536p, PE is 9.78 and yield is 3.91%, with a chance of increase
LET ME HEAR about your favorite UK energy stocks-
especially those with PE's below 10
BP Plc.
i am just updating my charts, and it looks like the ideal BUY price would be 535-540p:
chart ... update
That is not far away. Some may want to start nibbling at 550p or higher
At 561p: Yield is: 3.74% ... P/E Ratio: 10.23 (EPS: 54.8p)
ideal buy is 536p (probably sometime in the next 1-2 weeks)
at 536p, PE is 9.78 and yield is 3.91%, with a chance of increase
LET ME HEAR about your favorite UK energy stocks-
especially those with PE's below 10
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Jan 8 2007, 11:24 AM) 
LET ME HEAR about your favorite UK energy stocks-
especially those with PE's below 10
especially those with PE's below 10
I like Royal Dutch Shell 'A' at 1,729.00p (P/E: 8.8 Div Yield: 3.6%) its in my high yield portfolio.
QUOTE(Vicarious @ Jan 8 2007, 08:02 PM)
I like Royal Dutch Shell 'A' at 1,729.00p (P/E: 8.8 Div Yield: 3.6%) its in my high yield portfolio.
Is 3.6% a high yield or are you expecting better in the future? I find the major UK oil companies surprisingly poor when it comes to yield as some banks are offering over 4-5%+ (both on shares and their savings accounts). Of course, you will also get capital return on your investment here, assuming the share price continues to go up.
Just read this in the ADVFN market report. That 535-540 price range may be closer than we think depending on how the market reacts to this.
QUOTE
BP also fell back to close 4-1/2 lower at 552-1/2 and is expected to tell investors on Tuesday that trading in the fourth quarter has been tough, owing to falling oil and gas prices and refining margins.
Quarterly production figures are also unlikely to cheer the market as BP has already warned in October that output for 2006 is to reach 3.95 mln barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 3.997 mln boepd in 2005 and below its guidance of 4.1-4.2 mln boepd.
Quarterly production figures are also unlikely to cheer the market as BP has already warned in October that output for 2006 is to reach 3.95 mln barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 3.997 mln boepd in 2005 and below its guidance of 4.1-4.2 mln boepd.
i presume youve all read this?
http://www.oilbarrel.com/feature/article.h...ed=oilbarrel_en
01.01.2007
Russia - Doing Business With People Who Think They Can Get Away With Murder Literally And Metaphorically Is Never Easy
oilbarrel.com has led the fielding in exposing the Kremlin’s crude nationalisations in the oil and gas sector. In a new three part series we look at moves leading up to Shell’s humiliation with Sakhalin-2 and what happens next. In part one, we ask whether BP could be next on President Putin’s hit parade
By Anthony Robinson
..............The Rosneft IPO was particularly painful for BP - which is likely to be the next target of Kremlin larceny if, or more likely when, Gazprom relieves it of its interest in the Kovykta gas deposit in eastern Siberia and becomes its “partner” in western Siberia by elbowing aside TNK. BP-TNK was obliged to “invest” US$1 billion in the Rosneft IP0 when faced with what is known in Palermo as “an offer not subject to refusal.” After the event a somewhat shame-faced BP official admitted that the company had essentially written off the billion as a “good will investment.”...................
http://www.oilbarrel.com/feature/article.h...ed=oilbarrel_en
01.01.2007
Russia - Doing Business With People Who Think They Can Get Away With Murder Literally And Metaphorically Is Never Easy
oilbarrel.com has led the fielding in exposing the Kremlin’s crude nationalisations in the oil and gas sector. In a new three part series we look at moves leading up to Shell’s humiliation with Sakhalin-2 and what happens next. In part one, we ask whether BP could be next on President Putin’s hit parade
By Anthony Robinson
..............The Rosneft IPO was particularly painful for BP - which is likely to be the next target of Kremlin larceny if, or more likely when, Gazprom relieves it of its interest in the Kovykta gas deposit in eastern Siberia and becomes its “partner” in western Siberia by elbowing aside TNK. BP-TNK was obliged to “invest” US$1 billion in the Rosneft IP0 when faced with what is known in Palermo as “an offer not subject to refusal.” After the event a somewhat shame-faced BP official admitted that the company had essentially written off the billion as a “good will investment.”...................
Like I said on the main oil thread, can't trust what Russia is doing right now.
"Good will investment".
"Good will investment".
It's likely that insiders, having seen what happened to Shell, are already factoring in the Russia effect. Whether the wider investing public care, and more importantly, when, I can't say. But one thing is certain: whilst the goons we call leaders were fighting their Holy War in the mid-East, Moscow was preparing its own assault.
People seem to have forgotten the meaning of "an act of war". It is NOT executing or torturing or oppressing your own people. We have allowed and sponsored the same quite happily in the past and, correctly, never considered it to be an act of war. Neither is it the proliferation of a religion beyond a country's borders. We have after all conducted missions ourselves without declaring war.
Rather, an act of war is anything that threatens the financial integrity of another state. Given our oil majors are our largest companies, corporate larceny of the kind practiced by Moscow seems a much better example of an act of war than anything Saddam ever did to us. Add the Litvinenko assasination and Kremlin advice to the Home office that we should suppress publication of accusations of state sponsored execution, plus Moscow's heavy handed tactics with Belarus and Chechnya etc, and what reveals itself is a Kremlin barely distinguishable from that seen in Cold War days. But strangely our leaders say nothing. You want an elephant in the room? Look no further.
However, as with Hong Kong and the Faulklands, expect defeaning silence from across the Atlantic, even as we fight Bush's stupid, overblown quarrel for him in the Mid East. The fact is the war in Iraq was NEVER about right and wrong, only interests and what was achievable. We haven't even proven ourselves up to that task. All we managed to do was lose our moral authority. No wonder Moscow feels emboldened....
People seem to have forgotten the meaning of "an act of war". It is NOT executing or torturing or oppressing your own people. We have allowed and sponsored the same quite happily in the past and, correctly, never considered it to be an act of war. Neither is it the proliferation of a religion beyond a country's borders. We have after all conducted missions ourselves without declaring war.
Rather, an act of war is anything that threatens the financial integrity of another state. Given our oil majors are our largest companies, corporate larceny of the kind practiced by Moscow seems a much better example of an act of war than anything Saddam ever did to us. Add the Litvinenko assasination and Kremlin advice to the Home office that we should suppress publication of accusations of state sponsored execution, plus Moscow's heavy handed tactics with Belarus and Chechnya etc, and what reveals itself is a Kremlin barely distinguishable from that seen in Cold War days. But strangely our leaders say nothing. You want an elephant in the room? Look no further.
However, as with Hong Kong and the Faulklands, expect defeaning silence from across the Atlantic, even as we fight Bush's stupid, overblown quarrel for him in the Mid East. The fact is the war in Iraq was NEVER about right and wrong, only interests and what was achievable. We haven't even proven ourselves up to that task. All we managed to do was lose our moral authority. No wonder Moscow feels emboldened....
IT is those fears over Russian actions and the low oil prices, which has pushed BP down to
its current low levels.
In a sense, BP can afford to be in Russia, thanks to the massive holdings of natural gas reserves
in North America, which it obtained through its takeover of Amoco
In any case, I am planning to buy Calls rather than outright longs- just in case
OPTIONS PRICES- with BP at $64.32
strike : FEB. / APR. / JUL. / ja08
$ 65.c :$1.55 /$2.40 /$3.40 /$5.10
$ 60.c :$4.50 /$5.50 /$6.30 /$7.90
$ 55.c :$9.60 /$9.80 /$10.3 /$11.3
does anyone care to guess why i am planning to buy US$ denominated Calls, rather than calls
on the uk quoted BP. ?
its current low levels.
In a sense, BP can afford to be in Russia, thanks to the massive holdings of natural gas reserves
in North America, which it obtained through its takeover of Amoco
In any case, I am planning to buy Calls rather than outright longs- just in case
OPTIONS PRICES- with BP at $64.32
strike : FEB. / APR. / JUL. / ja08
$ 65.c :$1.55 /$2.40 /$3.40 /$5.10
$ 60.c :$4.50 /$5.50 /$6.30 /$7.90
$ 55.c :$9.60 /$9.80 /$10.3 /$11.3
does anyone care to guess why i am planning to buy US$ denominated Calls, rather than calls
on the uk quoted BP. ?
BP. is trading around 540p as i post this.
I have just seen a fat idiot on Bloomberg saying he would avoid the stock
"Until management has demonstrated they are turning things around."
- which is exactly the sort of sentiment i want to see when i am buying on a
likely long term support level.
(I love taking money off these sort-of Bloomberg "expert" interviewees)
Anyone want to bite on that currency question??
I have just seen a fat idiot on Bloomberg saying he would avoid the stock
"Until management has demonstrated they are turning things around."
- which is exactly the sort of sentiment i want to see when i am buying on a
likely long term support level.
(I love taking money off these sort-of Bloomberg "expert" interviewees)
Anyone want to bite on that currency question??
QUOTE(No6 @ Jan 8 2007, 07:26 PM)
Is 3.6% a high yield or are you expecting better in the future? I find the major UK oil companies surprisingly poor when it comes to yield as some banks are offering over 4-5%+ (both on shares and their savings accounts). Of course, you will also get capital return on your investment here, assuming the share price continues to go up.
Sorry should of put FTSE 100 high yield/low PE but yes there’s not many decent candidates there that I like I've got Shell, a couple of pharma's and United Utilities
what's wrong with a 3.5-4.0% yield?
that's what you are getting in many UK property investments,
but i reckon you have- in the energy sector- much better potential for capital gains here
no gtee, of course. but that is my opinion
that's what you are getting in many UK property investments,
but i reckon you have- in the energy sector- much better potential for capital gains here
no gtee, of course. but that is my opinion
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Jan 9 2007, 11:26 AM)
what's wrong with a 3.5-4.0% yield?
that's what you are getting in many UK property investments,
that's what you are getting in many UK property investments,
Quite but moreover,
If div yield was quoted b4 depreciation, I could understand folks questioning 4% yields. By contrast, property permabulls always quote rental yields b4 depreciation. Show me rental yield after anuual brickies, sparkies, chippies, corgis etc fees (or if you don't choose to protect your investment by allowing it slowly fall into disrepair, amortise the 20-something year renovation cost) and then we'll compare asset classes.
Does anyone really think that Energy shares will outperform Property in the long run?
Now at 535p, down over 3% today.
Wonder where it will stop. Thinking of getting some for long term investment.
Dr Bubb: Could you explain why you're buying US calls in dollars instead of UK ones from the previous page? Just out of interest.
Dr Bubb: Could you explain why you're buying US calls in dollars instead of UK ones from the previous page? Just out of interest.
i was wondering if you would ever ask...
I have bought a few calls / just to get positioned, with more to come later:
BPGL : CALL BP PLC JUL 60 at $4.80 // with BP at $62.20 (eqv.=535p x $1.938= $10.37 x 6)
when i could have bought options priced in Pounds earlier today. Why the Dollar calls ?
I am taking a bet on the currency too, by purchasing the dollar calls.
WATCH what happens.
Suppose BP rises from ... 535p to 600p (that's 12.1%)
... and Sterling from $1.938 to $2.20 : then BP rises from $62.20 to $79.20 (that's +27.3%)
In a single option, i benefit from the gains in both the stock and the currency.
Of course, i am taking the risk that sterling may decline. but in doing so, I risk only the option premium.
And options are still relatively cheap.
(note: having taken this position with BP at my pre-identified "ideal price",
i am going to wait a bit- a few hours, perhaps a few days, before adding to it.
I want to see how the oil price, and the market behave.)
I have bought a few calls / just to get positioned, with more to come later:
BPGL : CALL BP PLC JUL 60 at $4.80 // with BP at $62.20 (eqv.=535p x $1.938= $10.37 x 6)
when i could have bought options priced in Pounds earlier today. Why the Dollar calls ?
I am taking a bet on the currency too, by purchasing the dollar calls.
WATCH what happens.
Suppose BP rises from ... 535p to 600p (that's 12.1%)
... and Sterling from $1.938 to $2.20 : then BP rises from $62.20 to $79.20 (that's +27.3%)
In a single option, i benefit from the gains in both the stock and the currency.
Of course, i am taking the risk that sterling may decline. but in doing so, I risk only the option premium.
And options are still relatively cheap.
(note: having taken this position with BP at my pre-identified "ideal price",
i am going to wait a bit- a few hours, perhaps a few days, before adding to it.
I want to see how the oil price, and the market behave.)
Well and truely unloved at the moment. That's what I like to see.
QUOTE
ADVFN market report
In London, oil stocks weighed, hit by a downbeat update from BP. The oil giant remained a key faller, down 17 pence at 535-1/2 after the UK oil giant revealed disappointing production figures alongside a broadly downbeat trading update for the fourth quarter.
BP's oil and gas output in the three months to December fell to 3.82 mln barrels of oil equivalent per day from 4.022 mln boepd last time. In response, an analyst at a leading brokerage said production was "somewhat disappointing" and the large fall in US gas prices reflected the absence of the "seasonal strength" that investors were expecting.
In London, oil stocks weighed, hit by a downbeat update from BP. The oil giant remained a key faller, down 17 pence at 535-1/2 after the UK oil giant revealed disappointing production figures alongside a broadly downbeat trading update for the fourth quarter.
BP's oil and gas output in the three months to December fell to 3.82 mln barrels of oil equivalent per day from 4.022 mln boepd last time. In response, an analyst at a leading brokerage said production was "somewhat disappointing" and the large fall in US gas prices reflected the absence of the "seasonal strength" that investors were expecting.
BP looking a bit peaky? - energy-wise
"The oil giant remained a key faller, down 17 pence at 535-1/2"
if this proves to be the low close, i will take this as a bull's eye on my 536p target.
This was derived as follows:
BP's high.. : 723p
BP's low... : 350p
Difference.: 373p
50% of D..: 186p
add to Low: 536p : target correction low
see chart :
if this proves to be the low close, i will take this as a bull's eye on my 536p target.
This was derived as follows:
BP's high.. : 723p
BP's low... : 350p
Difference.: 373p
50% of D..: 186p
add to Low: 536p : target correction low
see chart :
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Jan 10 2007, 01:28 AM)
This was derived as follows:
BP's high.. : 723p
BP's low... : 350p
Difference.: 373p
50% of D..: 186p
add to Low: 536p : target correction low
BP's high.. : 723p
BP's low... : 350p
Difference.: 373p
50% of D..: 186p
add to Low: 536p : target correction low
Is this a general principle traders apply? Or of your own invention.
Bought 1500 shares at £5.36, perhaps it will go lower but it is hard to always call the absolute bottom. I am no expert but I think these have been oversold.
own invention?
certainly not. that's just a 50% retracement calculation.
another retracement that we often see, is a 61.8% retracement; calculated as follows:
BP's high.. : 723p
BP's low... : 350p
Difference.: 373p
38.2% of D: 142p
add to Low: 492p : target correction low, at 61.8% retracement
certainly not. that's just a 50% retracement calculation.
another retracement that we often see, is a 61.8% retracement; calculated as follows:
BP's high.. : 723p
BP's low... : 350p
Difference.: 373p
38.2% of D: 142p
add to Low: 492p : target correction low, at 61.8% retracement
Thank you. The reason for asking is that if a lot of traders do the same, especially those with big placements to place then would these breaches of technical levels cause an increaing in buying activity.
I suppose I have bought as a medium term investment.
I suppose I have bought as a medium term investment.
I bought some BP today at 533p But then I was holding the Brent Crude ETF (OILB.L) so I'm quite used to throwing money down the drain.
I really can't see oil staying this low for that long. People are talking as if the stuff is going out of fashion!
I really can't see oil staying this low for that long. People are talking as if the stuff is going out of fashion!
i still think the smart way to play BP is thru Calls on the US$-deominated BP.
I own several now: jul.$60, and jul.$65 strike
If I lose the whole premium (over $10,000), i will just reinvest from a lower level
I own several now: jul.$60, and jul.$65 strike
If I lose the whole premium (over $10,000), i will just reinvest from a lower level
DEFT MOVE?
i rolled into the jul.$65calls
bought them in two waves:
+ at $2.40- two days ago
+ at $2.20- yesterday
in reasonable size too. Much bigger than my original foray in the $60 calls.
Meantime, After today's jump in BP, i sold the $60calls originally acquired at $4.80.
Sold them at $5.10, taking a small profit.
i'm more comfortable with the cheap $65 calls, and i'm happy that they are July maturity.
Pleanty of time to go, with very limited risk
i rolled into the jul.$65calls
bought them in two waves:
+ at $2.40- two days ago
+ at $2.20- yesterday
in reasonable size too. Much bigger than my original foray in the $60 calls.
Meantime, After today's jump in BP, i sold the $60calls originally acquired at $4.80.
Sold them at $5.10, taking a small profit.
i'm more comfortable with the cheap $65 calls, and i'm happy that they are July maturity.
Pleanty of time to go, with very limited risk
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Jan 11 2007, 02:00 AM)
i still think the smart way to play BP is thru Calls on the US$-deominated BP.
You could be right, but many who come here don't have your experience and skill in playing the options game. Perhaps some are just looking for buying in on what could be a good long term investment opportunity from these lows. Options are for those that know what they are doing and feel confident in understanding how they play out. I'm sure this is still a learning process for many of us.
BP UP SHARPLY on high volume !
BP.L : 547p
BP... : $64-plus
The july$65 calls, are now nicely in profit.
I do hope some of you got on this bus
BP.L : 547p
BP... : $64-plus
The july$65 calls, are now nicely in profit.
I do hope some of you got on this bus
New CEO just announced to set off the spike. unfortunately the details of my self cert ISA haven't come in time. 
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Jan 12 2007, 04:45 PM)
BP UP SHARPLY on high volume !
I do hope some of you got on this bus
I do hope some of you got on this bus
FWIW your general tactic of switching from gold to oil is the exact opposite of what I have been doing for the last 18 months or so. It has so far been a wise move.
Despite BP.'s rise - I'm not that bullish on oil or oil stocks. I think we may well see sub $50 oil soon. Not a confident call - and certainly not a widely shared call on GEI.
I would expect RDSB / A to confirm the move higher along with the increased volume which is present.
Again Doc - a good call (at least short term) , best of luck with BP.
"your general tactic of switching from gold to oil is the exact opposite of what I have been doing"
me too.
i had been emphasizing gold since almost two years ago.
but i am looking to shift slowly towards energy.
i think this shift will take about 3-6 months, and will result in my holding maybe 30-50%
of my portfolio in oil shares, oil service, and coal... plus maybe green energy.
i reckon these swings back and forth take 3-4 years from gold emphasis to oil emphasis.
btw, most oil shares look overvalued relative to the price of oil.
bp looked like an exception, because of its management-related issues. : bp chart
oil service and coal could represent better valuations.
I make these judgements, by looking at ratios.
here's the ratio of oil service (oih) to oil sector (xle) ... update
...chart coming...
= = =
here's some more detail on those bp calls:
jul.$65, symbol: BPGM : closed at: $Bid 3.50 - Ask 3.70 (with BP at $64.64)
i bought 70 options, costing an average of $2.32 , that's $16,240
My investment of $16,240 controls stock worth: 70x $6.464k = $452,500
thanks to the high volume, it looks like BP could go higher. i will be facing that
old question: should i stick with my general rule: "when it doubles, sell half?"
me too.
i had been emphasizing gold since almost two years ago.
but i am looking to shift slowly towards energy.
i think this shift will take about 3-6 months, and will result in my holding maybe 30-50%
of my portfolio in oil shares, oil service, and coal... plus maybe green energy.
i reckon these swings back and forth take 3-4 years from gold emphasis to oil emphasis.
btw, most oil shares look overvalued relative to the price of oil.
bp looked like an exception, because of its management-related issues. : bp chart
oil service and coal could represent better valuations.
I make these judgements, by looking at ratios.
here's the ratio of oil service (oih) to oil sector (xle) ... update
...chart coming...
= = =
here's some more detail on those bp calls:
jul.$65, symbol: BPGM : closed at: $Bid 3.50 - Ask 3.70 (with BP at $64.64)
i bought 70 options, costing an average of $2.32 , that's $16,240
My investment of $16,240 controls stock worth: 70x $6.464k = $452,500
thanks to the high volume, it looks like BP could go higher. i will be facing that
old question: should i stick with my general rule: "when it doubles, sell half?"
QUOTE(DrBubb @ Jan 13 2007, 02:43 AM)
thanks to the high volume, it looks like BP could go higher. i will be facing that
old question: should i stick with my general rule: "when it doubles, sell half?"
old question: should i stick with my general rule: "when it doubles, sell half?"
The short term changes in the volume on the British oil majors has been quite odd in the past year. The volume increases with rallys - but the general trend is down. Perhaps the question to ask here is should the volume be trusted?
IF it can, then BP's chart looks short term bullish IMO - as long as the bottom bolly does not get stretched from here.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"when it doubles, sell half?" - Almost always a good idea - original stake back and a punt on a trend continuing.
yes.
selling half is usually a good idea with options.
but i tend to watch volume as a key to see whether the rule should be broken.
here, i will be watching oil prices too
selling half is usually a good idea with options.
but i tend to watch volume as a key to see whether the rule should be broken.
here, i will be watching oil prices too
Just came across the following on the Telegraph...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...1/14/cnbp14.xml
Should be an interesting week I think.
QUOTE
An independent investigation into BP's Texan refinery disaster has concluded that there were serious structural deficiencies in the way the company managed safety stretching right up to its London headquarters.
Lord Browne, BP Texas Ciy refinery disaster
Lord Browne will stand down as BP CEO in July
The conclusions will be published on Tuesday in a damning report from a panel led by James Baker, the former US secretary of state, that casts new light on the pressures building up against Lord Browne, the chief executive, before his surprise retirement announcement on Friday.
Lord Browne, BP Texas Ciy refinery disaster
Lord Browne will stand down as BP CEO in July
The conclusions will be published on Tuesday in a damning report from a panel led by James Baker, the former US secretary of state, that casts new light on the pressures building up against Lord Browne, the chief executive, before his surprise retirement announcement on Friday.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...1/14/cnbp14.xml
Should be an interesting week I think.
QUOTE
ADVFN Market Report
BP went 4 pence firmer to 545, after it said it has signed an agreement to develop two major gas fields in Oman that could potentially yield about 20-30 trln cubic feet of natural gas.
The production sharing contract, which marked BP's entry into the country's exploration and production sector, was signed by Mohammed Bin Hamad Al Rumhi, Oman's oil minister, and Tony Hayward, head of BP's exploration and production business.
BP went 4 pence firmer to 545, after it said it has signed an agreement to develop two major gas fields in Oman that could potentially yield about 20-30 trln cubic feet of natural gas.
The production sharing contract, which marked BP's entry into the country's exploration and production sector, was signed by Mohammed Bin Hamad Al Rumhi, Oman's oil minister, and Tony Hayward, head of BP's exploration and production business.
BP-nyse had a good close: $65.22, could well go higher : intraday chart
Next target: just short of $66.
If it tops $66, then the lows may well be in.
But i may dump some of the calls if it pushes to near $66
Next target: just short of $66.
If it tops $66, then the lows may well be in.
But i may dump some of the calls if it pushes to near $66
(1:50 PM ET 01/31/07)
Dow is up 0.20%
Oil is up 0.14%
BP confirms new gas find in Egypt and is down 1.29% to $62.78.
Buy now or wait till it goes lower ?
Dow is up 0.20%
Oil is up 0.14%
BP confirms new gas find in Egypt and is down 1.29% to $62.78.
Buy now or wait till it goes lower ?
It closed around $63.50, so perhaps that was the buy.
With this volatility, you can see the wisdom in selling half with a 50-100% profit.
My own selling effort was a day late, and $0.75 too high
With this volatility, you can see the wisdom in selling half with a 50-100% profit.
My own selling effort was a day late, and $0.75 too high
Last company I've added to my ISA now. Looking cheap, and even if it doesn't go up anytime soon it's still giving 4% dividend yield.
Im considering moving to the US soon and before i go want to buy some "safe" shares to put away and only sell when i get back to the UK (tax reasons). Bought Vodafone a few months ago and even though its been struggling to break through 1.50 its still got upwards momentum.
Im still not convinced BP is at the bottom of the long downward slope.
Im still not convinced BP is at the bottom of the long downward slope.
Clonk!
Shares fall on lower profits. Time to buy some more?
Shares fall on lower profits. Time to buy some more?
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