Some highly recced posters on TMF message boards are quite excited about Falcon listed in Canada. They have found a lot of gas in Hungary, but in a hard to get to flow area:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FO.V

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=1...=whole#10192628

The price has fallen recently which represents a good buying opportunity. I hold some and am thinking of picking up more For instance Davjo (who I think works for a city fund firm specialising in E & P :


The reality is that Falcon is on the verge of confirming multi TCF gas on the doorstep of a ready and avaricious market willing to pay. All they need to do is prove the undoubted resources are commercial. The upcoming test results should determine that. By all accounts, the porosities/permeabilities/overpressures/log results etc. indicate it'll be a slam dunk. I fail to see how the market presently interprets that differently but I'm reminded of a very respected Fool and ex investment banker for a big US outfit who told me ages ago of his long experiences in the business. It's not really that unusual to find stories apparently too good to be true. He cited CUX which he started buying in at 30 cents and spent a year lifting the drains to try and find out why it was so undervalued and gave up cos he couldn't find anything. At $4.50 he talked about buying a yacht...at $6 he bought a bigger and shinier one than anticipated. At $15, he bought a stud farm....

You get the point....;-)

Yes, it could all go wrong and management prove to be a bunch of liars but I'm about as sceptical as they come and I'm in the camp that believes FO's claims are entirely credible...at this point in time anyway. The upside is about as amazing as it comes. The smell isn't 100% but I fail to see, barring Armegeddon, how anybody buying today ain't going to get an opportunity of selling at a very fancy profit in the next few months.....famous last words :~\


I think I've probably been involved with the Falcon story than anyone on TMF - started researching the story way before the March placing so I feel I know the story.

I'd suggest that anyone who wants an interest should read the whole of the Scotia report - the whole thing and not just the headlines. The numbers are based on the bcga. There is nothing there for conventional gas or for any oil discoveries (not a main target but I'd be surprised if some decent pools weren't discovered given the bcga is the kitchen and fed the oil fields on the flanks). Also the recovery factors look lower than I'd expect.

The report was held up while the various parties batted the data around coming to a consensus - I'm mindful of the TSE's role here and their conservatism (they could better spend their time sorting out the trading practices on the TSE IMO). So, we really should view these figures as being the ultra conservative tight gas field numbers. IMO there is a lot of upside to the numbers but who cares when these alone would justify a multi bagger?

Yes, the key is the flow rates. The gas is there but will it flow? Having been in following the story, kicking tires and talking at great length to all sorts of people involved (in company, support functions, Hungarian govt officials, sceptics, other tight gas players) I'm very happy that this won't be a problem.

Its so frustrating when guidelines slip but that's the nature of the beast. Falcon want the best people for the job. They know what they have and don't want to risk anything. For instance, I understand that a fracing crew was available to give an earlier start (by a matter of a week or two) but they held off till the people they wanted were available. Its also why the wells were so expensive, over designing them to ensure that they didn't have problems. That's sensible IMO. Enduring that everything comes together at the right time is a pain to organise, especially with the tightness of supplies, crews, etc. Throw in need for permits, agreements etc and some delay was inevitable - frustrating yes, but understandable.

In my opinion, Falcon is, for Marc, a way of besting Ultra and what happened there. His two fingered salute as it were. He doesn't want it to go wrong and is also key to establishing he can do what he says he can, with an eye to future projects - success here would support fund raising etc at other MAB copanies.

The political angle must not be overlooked as well. For Hungary this is a country changing project. That helps.

My trip out there was very useful to further develop my feel for things. All the investors there - hedgies, analysts, fund managers/founder shareholders - all said the same. They all felt so concerned that they couldn't find anything wrong - just as your example with CUX demonstrates.

So am I feeling a bit of pain? For sure. Am I concerned? Nah. I'd expect a full update soon and I'm quite happy to wait for events to unfold.

As always do your own research, but I am fairly convinced this is worth a decent punt

Latest Update:

News from Marc Bruner in an interview giving update for testing of between 90-120 days

BUDAPEST, Jan 8 - Canada's Falcon Oil and Gas Ltd. has found a large natural gas field in Hungary but tests on whether the gas can be produced economically will take several months, Falcon Chief Executive Marc A. Bruner said on Monday.

Bruner added that if tests are successful on the Mako field, about 200 km south of Budapest, Hungary's gas production could soar and within four years the country could become a self-sufficient natural gas producer.

"Based on a study by the independent Scotia Group ... recoverable gas (found in Hungary) is estimated at 54 trillion cubic feet," Bruner told Reuters in a brief telephone interview.

Bruner, who is also President of Falcon Oil, added that these are potential resources and not yet proven reserves as the gas is particularly difficult and expensive to produce.

The gas is very deep underground and some of it is 6,000 metres below the surface under high pressures and in very hot rocks and sediment.

"We found a lot of gas, but the question is, can we get it out?" Bruner said. "We think yes, but we'll know it in 90 to 120 days."

Bruner said his estimates are based a study by the Dallas-based Scotia Group Inc., which said in September that there was a 90 percent or greater chance for the recovery of 21.8 trillion cubic feet of gas and a 50 percent or greater chance of recovering 45.9 trillion cubic feet.

Bruner declined to say how much gas would be produced but said that in an optimal case, "Hungary could become gas exporting nation in 60 months."

Hungary uses around 15 billion cubic metres of gas a year.

Production could start as early as this summer and Bruner estimated that the firm will have tested all the major wells by the end of the year.

Hungary has not had a major gas find in several decades and the Mako field, if found to be recoverable, would be bigger than any field ever found in the country.

The Hungarian mining authority said on Monday that it has accepted Falcon Oil's estimates for the field but declined to discuss how much of it may be recovered.

Roughly how much is this worth?

about a billion dollars (CAD) per tcf apparently

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10355193
Another good message from the motley fool
Its been an interesting week and the closer it gets, the harder it gets. I can certainly say that my own peace of mind is not as good as it has been. This stock is Wild West Country. I dont think anything has really changed in recent weeks - its a simple play on whether you think these guys know what they are doing or not. They have the background, the expertise and the understanding to make this work and they have been saying, in public and in private, that they think the play is economic for a considerable period of time. They could be mistaken. Even they cannot know until they see the results - the conventional play could be a bust which would be unhelpful but probably not disastrous.

But given their experience in turning areas in North America into a pin cushion and the sheer proximity of the trunk gas pipeline, the baseline case for what level of flow must be exceptionally low to kill this project. Of course noone, not even management, knows what the result will be, but launching a media blitz in Hungary 4-5 weeks into testing bodes well, does it not?

Thanks to Darron btw for getting in touch with management when that story came out via chinese whispers. Also good to hear that he regards the political risk as very low. Wasnt that one of the reasons that they picked this play after the worldwide review? Hungary is in the EU now so I think we can probably put political risk to bed. Of course, the Hungarian government could do a Gordon and up the tax take but thats fine by me because it will mean that project has succeeded. I particularly liked the implicit reminder in the "bad" news that the project is quite challenging and only this team really has the expertise to bring it off.

I got the collywobbles about a week ago. I have got too many shares in this stock and I came close to trimming on the spike to 4.00 the other day. However, I didnt and I really dont want to do it now at 3.20. I havent bought or sold any since the summer of last year so really I should stick with it for the last few weeks.

One thing I really liked was that management said 90-120 days for the results. Finally they have got the point that it is better to underpromise and overdeliver. Darron says he is confident that there will be an earlier announcement but at least that will be ahead rather than behind schedule. I notice that they couldnt help themselves though when asked about production and it was said there could possibly be production this summer. Oh well. Cant expect perfection can we.

I keep a reasonably close eye on StockHouse, especially recently, and its hard work isnt it. So much dross - even on the member board - to wade through. Now and again there is a gem, however, and I liked the calculations done by beamreach. Initially rumour was the tax take was going to be roughly $20b over four years but then it turned out it was over 40 years which makes more sense. Correct me if Im wrong but if the tax is around 30%, that equates to income of around $1500m on average. This roughly equates to 3000mmcfpd which would be 120 wells at 25mmcfpd which is plausible. Put that on a PER of 12x that equates to roughly $36 a share. And before you start querying PER in a resource stock remember that BCGAs ar historically priced like bonds because of their steady production profile. A PER of 12x is translatable into 8% which sounds about right.

Put it another way, if they've got 20tcf 2P (I know its 20tcf at 1P but bear with me) at a billion dollars (CAD) per tcf that equates to around $40 a share which is a reassuring cross check. It also explains why theknight thinks that this stock could move to $20 pretty quickly if the flows come through. Of course, if they dont they'll go to zero. Not for widows and orphans.

Anyone tempted? The price is back down to $3.20 now.

I like the chart here : update



...provided it can hold $3.00

Well I am not really a chartist - its the news thats most important:

http://www.intesatrade.it/intesa/News/Dett...mp;idNot=371475
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES BUDAPEST (Dow Jones)--Canadian oil and gas exploration company Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (FO.V) is planning to start production of natural gas at the Mako field in Hungary within 60 days, Falcon''s President and Chief Executive Marc Bruner told Dow Jones Newswires Friday. "We think we''ll start production within sixty days," Bruner said, contradicting press reports which have said Falcon hasn''t decided yet whether to proceed with gas production in Hungary. "My belief is that (production) will be economical. We will know within six months," Bruner added. Falcon has found approximately 54 trillion of cubic feet of natural gas in Hungary, according to the Scotia Group Inc., which Falcon cooperated with. "This is an estimated recoverable resource and the upper case is 116 trillion of cubic feet of gas," Bruner added. The executive refused to reveal an estimated daily output in the early phase of exploitation. "If this deposit is everything we believe it is, within five years Hungary can be a gas-exporting country instead of an importing one," Bruner said. The company is also considering the possibility of listing on the Budapest Stock Exchange. "We will seek a listing for our shares (on the Budapest bourse) ... If we''ll do it, we''ll do it in the next couple of months," Bruner said. He added that his company may consider raising further funds through a secondary offering in Toronto, where its shares are already listed, at some point in the future - "probably at higher prices than where we are now." "We are prepared to do whatever is required in order to do what we need to do here (in Hungary)," Bruner stressed. Company Web site: http://www.falconoilandgas.com -By Edith Balazs, Dow Jones Newswires; +361-267-0623; edith.balazs@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires 12-01-07 1730GMT Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

This field makes Hungary a gas exporting country - that seems rather large. Either he's lying or this is probably going to be a five bagger within a fairly short space of time.

I've ordered some.

I've ordered some.
That may be the best or worst financial decision of your life. I'm not sure which.

Even if it goes to zero, it won't be the worst.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10359451
Another update from Darron (he actually went to hungary and spoke to the engineers) - my bold

Falcon holders appear very twitchy and I must admit to being a little bit p'd off about the fact that the price hasnt recovered the ground lost due to the BS press report. Wierd how the stock can go from 13m shares on that day to 10% of that figure the next. You can almost understand why on this side of the pond we view the TSE as a bit of a casino.

FWIW, everything Ive heard reported is what has been known or talked about for months.

Ive always taken great comfort from the fact that we have continued to drill new deep wells, build pipelines, prep 3 more well sites, etc. Why wouldnt the company do that if they didnt have great confidence? Especially when you consider that M7 is what 7km from the M6? Shows that they are especially confident about what is down there. Then again, the latest wells have been drilled with the benefit of the synthetics shot down hole which will have further improved their understanding of the play.

Having had the benefit of being out there twice talking to people in the company, at the well head and others not in the company, you get a clearer persepctive that perhaps has helped calm my nerves.

As for a PP - quite possible though I havent heard anything. The company is going to need more funds to develop the Mako. The MacQ facility is not somethign Ive liked due to the warrants making it very expensive. Its my view (and not anythign Ive gleaned from talking to the company) that this wouldnt go ahead in its current form without being significantly revised. Instead you could easily raise the same amout (or more) after a good well test in a straight forward PP. Longer term, as volumes increase, other finance options will become available to the company. The possiblity of farm ins is also highly likely IMO (if not outright takeover).

At the moment everythign is up in the air (or more accurately down in the gound). The company has cash to do what it needs to do, is progressing and results are near, beit in the next few weeks as I suspect (interim frac test results) or longer (complete flow test results and volumetrics based on the test results).

it a PITA holding on and seeing the price seesaw, especially when your other big holdings arent going anywhere but this is what the investment game is all about, having the courage of your convictions and the patience to see it through. In a few months my clients are either going to be very well off or see a hit. Personally I dont see the downside as being that great since I feel that the Szolnok is a certainty. It is the BC and Synrift (more the BC) that could really bring more to the party since this is the most interestign part and as yet doesnt make up much in terms of prospective resource (see the Scotia report).

Price has fallen recently - so even more of a discount. Again from the fool:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10376605

To put this into perspective, if the P50 of 54 TCF recoverable becomes accepted as reserves, this is the equivalent of approximately 9 billion barrels of oil, putting Falcon's reserves on a par with Conoco-Phillips.
They've run pipeline. They've obtained the mining plot. They're on track for obtaining the production license. While we could all wish the timelines had been better kept, and there was less uncertainty, it is clear this is a very big ship requiring careful piloting to bring her home.

This just about sums it up for me and anything under $3 is just too tempting.
It did feel a bit like catching a falling knife when I topped up this afternoon at $2.75 (first top up since July 06). It may drop lower, I have never been any good at timing, but I believe that today's price will look cheap in the not too distant future.

So then anyone else tempted? Do you feel lucky?

Quite tempted, going to keep an eye on it and if some money because available I may just take the punt. See it closed at $2.68, so having broken $3 support as DB mentioned, it may have further to fall.

For an alternative downside view by WShak a trader:

planetgong said, after a chat with the company:

This is a sensitive time. Any comments can be misinterpreted. There is no sense 'hyping'. Announcements will be made when there is substantial news of material importance. It is important that info released is not misleading. Eg if 6 fracs are to be made on a well and the first is a success then it would be misleading to release the info (whether good or bad) until all 6 fracs have been done. You might do the first and measure rates for 1 or 2 days then do the next one. When all 6 were done then you might open all 6 intervals and measure the rates for 30 days (subject to the limits of the well bore). Even then (whether good or bad) releasing the results might be misleading so they might wait for results from all wells. The company will only release news when it paints an accurate picture of events. There may be news at the end of February or later or even before, it depends when there is enough information to give a true picture.

Meanwhile, theknight1603, a trustworthy source, says:

Meanwhile if it helps calm a few nerves,FO did get to TD on the M7(just over 6.1K metres)and the 803 has now moved on to the M4 site,and the 403 is also back in operation on another "shallow" well.

Does anyone else see the irony in these two statements? On one hand, we have the company stressing how nothing must be released to the market, even successful well results, yet on the other it's clear that every minute detail is being passed on to favoured shareholders. It just goes to show what absolute cack is being spouted by a pretence of secrecy.

Does anyone seriously think that this company will prevent leaks in the event of material news? I don't.

I don't have a position in the company any more but the more I look at it, the less likely I am to buy back in at anything like current levels. It acts and behaves like a £60million company so why would anyone pay for a share which values it at ten times that price?

If I was a shareholder, I'd be putting pressure on the board to issue news at every juncture, giving news out as each well progresses. At least that way, everyone is on a level playing field, good news or bad, and they wouldn't be giving off the awful stench that this firm is being run for some kind of old boy's club.

WShak

There is a beautifully written report "resource estimate Mako Trough, Hungary" by Scotia Group posted on Falcon's filings at sedar.com (Sept 06)

There can be all the gas in the world in that basin but if it can't be produced economically its a bust. To quote from the report "Due to the low permeability, commercially successful wells require ........successful implementation of hydraulic fracture treatments. Experience has shown that considerable experimentation is usually required to find the optimal completion technology. Given that even with successful completion technology, the productivity of low permeability gas wells is less than that of their conventional counterparts, the riskd are due to engineering and economic, rather than geological."

There is a nice review of all the tight gas basins in the US. Note that average cumulative per well is 1.1 BCF only And note the graph on well spacing 10-20 acres fully developed to get a normal recovery factor. That's a lot of wells!...and a lot of development money. Also take a look at the Pinedale EUR (estimated Ultimate Recovery) Map. This appears to be by far the best performing tight gas field where wells in the sweet spot make make cumulatives of 10-20 BCF. Also disturbing is the reports aluding to the observation that the sweet spot is on the crest of the anticline where possibly more rock deformation has caused internal fractures which may enhance performance. No evidence of this get in Mako.

I pulled out my discounted cash flow spreadsheet and assumed the wildly optimistic Pinedate sweet spot analog of initial rate 12 MMscfd and Cums of 12 BCF. Normally a good tight gas well would be making IP's of 2-4 MMscfd. The last financial statements of Falcon say they have $280 MM in assets (mostly cash) with $80 MM sunk to date. Based on the costs mentioned in the above report I estimated that 17 wells (including hookups and surface facilities could be drilled with $280 MM of assets. The economic regime is mentioned in Falcon's website presentation: royalities 18% tax 20% and gas price Eu 5.5. I assumed the 17 well project would be abandoned when the cash flow became neg. This leads to a NPV after tax of $415 MM or less than a dollar per share. For lower IP's and Cums the project is not economic unless they can decrease the drilling costs or increase their sales price.

Looks like the market is giving a premium to all those gas resources which are still tightly in place. I think I'll keep my cash dry until we see some production results

The Engineer

http://www.portfolio.hu/en/cikkek.tdp?cChe...k=1&i=11866
Hungarian fuels group MOL has announced on Thursday morning that it has agreed with ExxonMobil subsidiary Esso Exploration International Limited to jointly examine unconventional gas resources in certain basins in Hungary. The company warns that unconventional exploration projects usually require substantial financial commitment and often entail significant production risk.

“Success of Falcon's in gas exploration in SE Hungary made MOL to investigate the investment potential in this business," Péter Tordai of KBC Securities has commented.

Looking good for Falcon. I expect another bounce today. Hope your still holding Frizzers?

BUDAPEST, Hungary, May 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO) ("Falcon") today announced that it has received final written approval from the Hungarian Mining Authority for a long-term production license (known as a "Mining Plot" under Hungarian law) covering all oil and gas in the identified Basin Centered Gas Accumulation ("BCGA") resource underlying Falcon's two exploration licenses.

On May 21, 2007, Falcon's Hungarian operating subsidiary, TXM Oil and Gas LLC, received formal written approval and issuance of the long-term production license ("Production License") that was applied for in October 2006. The issuance of the Production License was the final step necessary for Falcon to secure its right and ability to implement its drilling and development plan for this large hydrocarbon resource in southeast Hungary. The Production License will continue as long as Falcon continues operations on the properties.

CEO and Chairman, Marc A. Bruner, stated, "The issuance of the long-term production license is the culmination of years of dedicated work by Falcon and the cooperation and expertise of the Hungarian government in analyzing and recognizing the estimated recoverable portion of this Contingent Resource(1)(2). Falcon extends its appreciation to the Mining Authority, environmental authorities and related mayors and municipalities, and commits to conduct its business and carry out a development program that will mutually benefit the company and the people of Hungary. We are excited about this project and our long-term future relationship with the Hungarian government and the people of Hungary."

The Production License follows the government's approval of the company's Closing Report on December 21, 2006, as previously announced. With its approval of the Closing Report, the Hungarian government validated and agreed with Falcon's geological and technical evaluation and conclusions about the existence, extent, and estimated recoverable portion of this BCGA Contingent Resource underlying Falcon's exploration licenses. The approved Mining Plot covers the area as defined by the Scotia Group, Inc., for its resource estimate, in an independent report ("Scotia Report") dated effective August 15, 2006 (previously filed at http://www.Sedar.com)..

Dr. Gyorgy Szabo, a member of Falcon's Board of Directors, stated, "Falcon has acquired more than 1,100 square kilometres of 3D seismic, drilled five wells, commenced drilling of a sixth well, constructed a high capacity gathering pipeline and entered into a detailed testing and evaluating program. Now that Falcon has received approval of the Mining Plot, the company will put the necessary systems and personnel in place to develop this extensive resource, consistent with the results of our ongoing testing program."

Notes Regarding Contingent Resource Estimate:

(1) The resource estimate has been conducted using the definitions specified by the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook. The Mako Trough Resource falls under the "Discovered Resources" classification. The values refer to the probabilistically estimated recoverable fraction of "Contingent Resources" within that classification. Contingent resources are those quantities of oil and gas estimated on a given date to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations but are not currently economic. The economic nature of this resource has not yet been assessed due to the early stage of data gathering for the Mako Trough resource. The recoverable portion of this "Contingent Resource" is contingent upon the demonstration of productive capability of the various zones of interest through well testing and longer term production testing which has not occurred as of the effective date of the report.

(2) Estimates are as at August 15, 2006, the effective date of the Scotia Report.

About Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.

Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. is a British Columbia corporation which is in the business of oil and gas exploration and production. It has operations in Hungary through its wholly-owned subsidiary TXM Oil and Gas Exploration and in Romania through its wholly-owned subsidiary JVX Energy Corporation. Further information about Falcon is available at http://www.falconoilandgas.com..

Contacts:
Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Marc A. Bruner, President, Chairman & CEO

Weber Shandwick Worldwide
Peter Duda
+1 (212) 445-8213

Falcon's discovered resources are not reserves. Only those quantities of oil and gas that are anticipated to be economically recoverable from discovered resources are classified as reserves. Until such time as Falcon's discovered resources are proven to be reserves, there is a risk that Falcon may not achieve ongoing operations from which it may generate significant revenue.

In the interests of providing Company shareholders and potential investors with information regarding the Company, including the Company's assessment of its and its subsidiaries' future plans and operations, certain statements included in this press release may constitute forward-looking information or forward-looking statements (collectively, "forward-looking statements"). All statements contained herein that are not clearly historical in nature are forward-looking, and the words "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "estimate" and similar expressions are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. Similarly, forward-looking statements in this press release include, but are not limited to anticipated developments of the Company's drilling project in Hungary and the timing thereof, the Company's drilling project in Romania and the timing thereof, capital investment levels and the allocation thereof, pipeline capacity, government royalty rates, reserve and resources estimates, the level of expenditures for compliance with environmental regulations, site restoration costs including abandonment and reclamation costs, exploration plans, acquisition and disposition plans including farmout plans, net cash flows, geographic expansion and plans for seismic surveys. In addition, please note that statements relating to "reserves" or "resources" are deemed to be forward-looking statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves and resources described can be profitably produced in the future. Such statements represent the Company's internal projections, estimates or beliefs concerning, among other things, an outlook on the estimated amounts and timing of capital expenditures, anticipated future debt levels and incentive fees or revenues or other expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions, intentions or statements about future events or performance. These statements are only predictions. Actual events or results may differ materially. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, it cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievement since such expectations are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties and contingencies. Many factors could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made by, or on behalf of, the Company and the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date hereof disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. Company shareholders and potential investors should carefully consider the information contained in the Company's filings with Canadian securities administrators at http://www.sedar.com before making investment decisions with regard to the Company.

The TSX Venture Exchange does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

SOURCE Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.

For further information: Marc A. Bruner, President, Chairman & CEO of Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.; or Peter Duda of Weber Shandwick Worldwide, +1-212-445-8213, for Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.

© Copyright PR Newswire

Wow. This has been a ride. But I'm still holding.

Yup its bucking bronco alright. If you own a sizeable holding its like being a manic depressive thing. Half the time you wish you had never bought any of the stuff and the other half of the time you wish you had bought tons more.

Darron's still at it on the fool:
http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10546474
So, where do we (FO) go from there?

Personally I reckon that the securing of the PL will remove one of the main fears that the market has. We will own the Mako. Whether this PL covers the whole of the Mako including the smaller Mol acreage or just the Falcon territory waits to be seen. I wouldn't be surprised to see that Mol lost their acreage since they couldn't do anything with it whereas Falcon has demonstrated sufficiently that it can. Hence the recent Mol partnership with Exxon - they've lost their acreage and now want to move on similar play potential following FO's success.

Irrespective and working on the principle of just "our" acreage, I'd say we will head towards $4.50 at least and probably quite violently - going to that level in a day.

The PL will IIRC mean we can produce for 35 (?) Years with extensions thereafter.

The "only" remaining concern is the economics.

I'm not worried on this front. Indeed, this has been the least of my concerns from the start in many ways. The huge pressures encountered during drilling, the need to use heavy mud weights and flaring to control wells. The better geology compared to Jonah or Pinedale in the US - a magnitude improvement in terms of permeability and porosity. This is just in respect of the Szolnok (where most of the Scotia reported numbers lie). This doesn't account for the intriguing possibilities deep down in the synrift and basal conglomerate nor indeed the endrod. All potential icing on the cake, especially if these deep levels flow big and conventional in manner. Already we have condensate which is being sold.

Then we have the fact that the company has laid production pipeline - a sure sign they expect production.

Sure the existing wells were expensive I'd expect nothing less. The company drilled massively over engineered wells to cope with unknowns but expected challenging conditions. Given the knowledge received on the deep and shallow wells, I would expect a better design of well and therefore lower cost, which improves the economics.

Errr, I think I've lost my train of thought - apologies I'm on a train and I'm never that good first thing in the am.

So, all that remains is the data. That will come soon I'm sure and I'm reminded of gustavson who sold the mako to falcon after another mega oil co messed around. G hs a 5% royalty and he's looking forward to being very wealthy indeed.

To sum up I'd say that a PL will see us well over $4 and maybe into the $5 levels. After the test data I'd expect us to move to double figures, a farm in or two and a fund raiser will then follow. Alternatively a takeover could well emerge which would be a shame since I think we would get poor value in relative terms. Can I see $20 or $30? - sure I can otherwise I wouldn't be in Falcon

Remember, Ben Law reckons on 200tcf. Remind me what the market cap of Ultra is again and how much reserves they have?

Sorry if it comes over too rampish. I've been in Falcon from the go. Its been trying, frustrating as hell and I've got more grey hair as a result. The company has got a hell of a lot done in what's still a relatively short time scale but I really think we are on the brink of success.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive...8/10/c4694.html

[i]Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. Enters Into Production and Development Agreement With ExxonMobil on Falcon's Project in Hungary DENVER, April 10 /CNW/ -- Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO, "Falcon")
announced today that it and its wholly owned subsidiary, TXM Exploration and
Production LLC, have entered into a Production and Development Agreement with
Exxon Mobil Corporation affiliate Esso Exploration International Limited
(ExxonMobil) under which Falcon and ExxonMobil will become joint owners in a
specified portion (the "Contract Area") of Falcon's long-term production
license (the "Production License") in the Mako Trough, Hungary. ExxonMobil
will operate the Contract Area.[/i]

Good news at last - this is going to shoot up today if momentum traders wish to get on board. Frizzers - you still holding? I may recoup half my losses

$1.01 Change: +0.06 Open: 1.15 High: 1.35 Low: 0.87
Volume: 52,674,414 / Percent Change: +6.32%

52.6 million shares !! / see: chart