 End game. US V EUROPE V ASIA, If trading ceased between who would be the biggest winners |
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 Mar 10 2010, 08:16 AM
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Centurion  Group: Members Posts: 206 Joined: 1-November 09 Member No.: 3,452  |
Back in the eighties Maggie started a buy british slogan. If the worlds free trade stopped, which part of the world would you want to live in and why? Regards ML. |
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Mar 10 2010, 04:47 PM
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 Millennium man Group: Members Posts: 1,884 Joined: 8-May 08 Member No.: 1,809 |
QUOTE (Manual labourer @ Mar 10 2010, 08:16 AM)  Back in the eighties Maggie started a buy british slogan. If the worlds free trade stopped, which part of the world would you want to live in and why? Regards ML. Wherever there was plenty of work and little corruption or crime in both the public and private sectors. I am not sure that this place actually exists though 
-------------------- The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. - John Maynard Keynes
I must remember that investing is a marathon and not a sprint! |
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Mar 11 2010, 12:10 AM
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 Third Wave Hunter Group: Members Posts: 1,428 Joined: 15-January 08 From: EW Harmonic Fibland Member No.: 1,496 |
If you're talking about self sufficiency Brazil has got to be at or near the top of the list?
-------------------- Not everyone's a genius in a bear market.
It's all in the waves, the problem is, interpreting them correctly! Third Waves - "Third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable. Increasing favourable fundamentals enter the picture as confidence returns. Third waves usually generate the the greatest volume and price movement and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows of course, that the third wave of a third wave and so on will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence". Please note: Improvisation has been necessary as my charting package does not accommodate for the characters required to show the exact degrees of the wave structures. Any complaints should be emailed to: sodoffyoubarsteward@gotakeahike.com The ultimate ignorance is the rejection of something you know little or nothing about and refuse to investigate. The entire modern financial system is based on a very small group of people having the power to create money out of thin air. |
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Mar 11 2010, 01:43 AM
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#5
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Member Group: Members Posts: 86 Joined: 6-March 10 From: 20,000 leagues under the sea Member No.: 3,738 |
As of 5-10 years ago trade as a percent of US GDP was only 12% - America was largely self-sufficient. I think the US is still the best positioned country to pursue autarky.
America imports $1.5 trillion worth of goods. $430 billion in consumer goods, and $160 billion in autos and auto parts - those are both strategically irrelevant, as we also build autos domestically and the imports are of no military value. However, we import $370 billion in capital goods and $460 billion in industrial supplies. This represents part of America's lost industrial base; but we still have the know-how, so this industrial base could be rebuilt in a timely fashion. I pick the USA. http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-...elease/exh8.pdf -------------------- "After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" --Jesse Livermore
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Mar 11 2010, 03:01 AM
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 Tri-Millennium Guru Group: Administrators Posts: 6,583 Joined: 16-June 08 From: The Southern Alps Member No.: 1,944 |
QUOTE (Carlton @ Mar 11 2010, 11:43 AM) As of 5-10 years ago trade as a percent of US GDP was only 12% - America was largely self-sufficient. I think the US is still the best positioned country to pursue autarky. America imports $1.5 trillion worth of goods. $430 billion in consumer goods, and $160 billion in autos and auto parts - those are both strategically irrelevant, as we also build autos domestically and the imports are of no military value. However, we import $370 billion in capital goods and $460 billion in industrial supplies. This represents part of America's lost industrial base; but we still have the know-how, so this industrial base could be rebuilt in a timely fashion. I pick the USA. http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-...elease/exh8.pdf As far as an end game goes, I've been thinking something similiar. You have to ask yourself how stable and solid is the growth in the "emerging" economies. Too many people are thinking of the currencies of the "decadent" west blowing up, but what is more likely to happen, in an era of globalization, is capital will reverse back to the central funding currencies... the currencies which have some history behind them. Decoupling might come at a later date, but for now currencies are all inextricably linked... for better or worse. I doubt the [post] developed economies will suffer some inflationary holocaust, but will most probably find money to be very scarce. People will value it more, and there will be those with it and those without it. Population density might be a crucial factor here; those populations which enjoy a less crowded existence might still maintain a reasonable standard of living by simply growing their own food. Those stuck in the cities might feel the squeeze. -------------------- Modern fiat money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be monetized.
Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold is the king of cash. |
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Mar 11 2010, 09:12 AM
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 Centurion Group: Members Posts: 280 Joined: 6-July 09 Member No.: 3,172 |
Does the US have the know how? Will foreigners with know how want to work in a state which will be close to anarchy? I am not so sure.
-------------------- All I do is take these funny little rectangular pieces of paper or those electronic digits that appear on my computer screen that our zombie banks and governments call money and I turn them into silver and gold. The medieval alchemists never even go close to that miracle! I am turning paper into gold, it's awesome! We should be thanking the collective boneheads who make this magic possible.
Now this is the Law of the Jungle -- as old and as true as the sky; And the Wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the Wolf that shall break it must die. As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk the Law runneth forward and back -- For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack. “Big Brother isn’t watching. He’s singing and dancing. He’s pulling rabbits out of a hat. Big Brother’s busy holding your attention every moment you’re awake. He’s making sure you’re always distracted. He’s making sure you’re fully absorbed.” - Chuck Palahniuk |
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Mar 12 2010, 05:20 PM
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Centurion Group: Members Posts: 206 Joined: 1-November 09 Member No.: 3,452 |
QUOTE (d2thdr @ Mar 11 2010, 09:12 AM) Does the US have the know how? Will foreigners with know how want to work in a state which will be close to anarchy? I am not so sure. Do you think the politicians in the USA, will continue to sit and watch as China steals its jobs, by keeping its currency from rising to the level it should be at? How bad would it have to be for them to close theirs doors to imports or raising huge import tariffs on chinese goods ? Regards ML |
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Mar 12 2010, 05:47 PM
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 TERMINATOR Group: Members Posts: 2,607 Joined: 30-January 08 From: LONDON Member No.: 1,524 |
QUOTE End game. US V EUROPE V ASIA, If trading ceased between who would be the biggest winners In this scenario there would be no winners.... only loosers ? -------------------- Capitalism gives you MORE. More efficient production to put you out of work, more globilisation to mess up the planet, more goods to consume and more debt to buy them with.
DO YOU REALLY WANT MORE? Does capitalism give you a healthy life style, healthcare, a pension, happiness or a loving family? Leave it to the free markets? Socialism doesnt work either.... Whats the middle path? GEI SEARCH PAGE: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ode=adv&f=0 Nb. The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men. Plato, Greek author & philosopher in Athens (427 BC - 347 BC). |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 6th September 2010 - 11:31 PM |