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Catflap's Cycle Views - A Rally into Q3. 2010


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#161 DrBubb

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Posted 13 August 2010 - 01:28 AM

QUOTE (Catflap @ Aug 13 2010, 10:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
BTW - is it possible you can increase the storage for attachments. I have to keep deleting older ones so that I can post new ones since the limit is 500k which in my case equates to a pathetic 11 charts. I've not had to delete any on HPC and must have posted 50 or so - the last time I looked the available space used for attachments was only a fraction of what was still available.


I don't know how to do that.
Why not use: http://Imageshack.us ?

You can do this


... and this: Walker's-PC ratio chart-updated

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#162 DrBubb

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Posted 13 August 2010 - 02:04 AM

CF,
You may like this:

Market Still Following 1937 Pattern

In 1937 All Over Again I laid out the case that we are following the pattern of the original double-dip, the reversal in 1937 that broke the hope of coming out of the Great Depression.

James Shaw at SeekingAlpha had first suggested this pattern back in 2008, and updates his analysis today. The chart is a bit busy, but you can see he overlays a simplified pattern of our market on top of the 1937-42 market. If the pattern continues, here is the roadmap:

flat for the rest of August
bounce in Sept/Oct
sharp drop in Nov/Dec
sickening slide for two more years
new low in 2012


/more: http://yelnick.typep...n.html#comments
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#163 DrBubb

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Posted 13 August 2010 - 04:41 AM

I may move the Blog-Journals to another section.
Please comment / here: http://www.greenener...showtopic=10777

If you don't want the move, and a majority with Blogs also do not want it,
I will very happily leave things as is.

The idea was to make it easier to get to the Blog-Journals, and to increase visibility
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#164 Catflap

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Posted 13 August 2010 - 11:31 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 13 2010, 02:00 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Okay.
Take a look at the PC ratio too. As a Bear, that one worries me a bit. / PC Ratio-chart

It will take time to build interest in your thread.
Maybe we should get you on a future GE Radio Podcast.

BTW, what did you think of Dave Skarica's Bull arguments / http://tinyurl.com/GER-Doldrums ?


You might want to look at Equity Put Call Ratio as well - this one shows relative fear and complacency:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC...amp;a=200440356


I've got used to doing the attachments but can see I'm going to have to use Imageshack or Tinypic so the charts I post don't have to be deleted because I run out of attachment space - just thought there might be a setting on the forum software that might allow users a bigger capacity and that this might just be the limited default one.



#165 Catflap

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Posted 13 August 2010 - 11:44 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 13 2010, 03:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
CF,
You may like this:

Market Still Following 1937 Pattern

In 1937 All Over Again I laid out the case that we are following the pattern of the original double-dip, the reversal in 1937 that broke the hope of coming out of the Great Depression.

James Shaw at SeekingAlpha had first suggested this pattern back in 2008, and updates his analysis today. The chart is a bit busy, but you can see he overlays a simplified pattern of our market on top of the 1937-42 market. If the pattern continues, here is the roadmap:

flat for the rest of August
bounce in Sept/Oct
sharp drop in Nov/Dec
sickening slide for two more years
new low in 2012


/more: http://yelnick.typep...n.html#comments


I was also suggesting this pattern in 2008 during the crash and you might remember me saying that 'I could see the possibility of this 5th wave down another 15% or so that takes us into March 1938' but I knew nothing about EW at the time.

But as I explained on my K-wave thread, the decline was a lot shorter from the 1937 peak (around a year) which only gave a 1 year cyclical bull market advance. Later on the chart pattern is extremely unreliable as Louise Yamada also confirms and I attribute this to the pending WWII and the chart pattern doesn't settle down until some time later. The Japanese K-wave at this point is a better indicator and in terms of time from the October crash lows the time is almost identical to the absolute lows.

#166 Catflap

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Posted 13 August 2010 - 11:51 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 13 2010, 05:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I may move the Blog-Journals to another section.
Please comment / here: http://www.greenener...showtopic=10777

If you don't want the move, and a majority with Blogs also do not want it,
I will very happily leave things as is.

The idea was to make it easier to get to the Blog-Journals, and to increase visibility


I think this thread only has a limited life anyway, because it's about the 18-month cyclical bull market which I've projected to peak in late August/early September, so in time it will just sink to the bottom.


#167 DrBubb

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Posted 14 August 2010 - 10:21 PM

QUOTE (Catflap @ Aug 14 2010, 07:51 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think this thread only has a limited life anyway, because it's about the 18-month cyclical bull market which I've projected to peak in late August/early September, so in time it will just sink to the bottom.

We can change the title - What would you like it to be?

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#168 Catflap

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Posted 15 August 2010 - 11:01 AM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 14 2010, 11:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
We can change the title - What would you like it to be?


Thanks, I'll think of something over the next few weeks but think it's better to change it later once we know the market has topped and a new bear market is underway.

#169 DrBubb

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Posted 15 August 2010 - 02:53 PM

QUOTE (Catflap @ Aug 15 2010, 07:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Thanks, I'll think of something over the next few weeks but think it's better to change it later once we know the market has topped and a new bear market is underway.

Hmm.
For some of us, that has happened already
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#170 Catflap

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Posted 16 August 2010 - 12:58 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 15 2010, 03:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Hmm.
For some of us, that has happened already


Well there's still no Dow Theory primary trend change, despite the sell-off in April, May and June and their hasn't been a MACD crossover on the monthly charts, despite us being almost 4 months past the April 2010 peak.


#171 Catflap

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Posted 22 August 2010 - 06:53 PM

I think it's likely the top will come a little later than I've projected. One method I use based on momentum was predicting a peak around August 27, 2010 (which appears a little too early) whilst the fractal work on my K-wave theory was saying September 3, 2010 after the April peak was in. Adding the same number of calender days from the October 27, 2008 low to the April 23, 2010 peak onto the March 9, 2009 lows gave a predicted peak of September 3, 2010.

Taking the price peak on April 23, 2010 down to the July 2, 2010 bottom gives 49 trading days - add 49 trading days to July 2, 2010 and you get September 13, 2010 when you take into account the US market will be closed on Labour day (first monday in September) so the topping out could occur between September 3, 2010 and September 13, 2010.

The cumulative Advance-Decline line has made new highs above those in April so there's another positive divergence here which says price should go back to the April highs:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA...amp;a=191477003


#172 DrBubb

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 06:31 AM

QUOTE (Catflap @ Aug 23 2010, 02:53 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The cumulative Advance-Decline line has made new highs above those in April so there's another positive divergence here which says price should go back to the April highs:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA...amp;a=191477003

"New highs"?
Anything is possible, I suppose. But I think you should accept : You are running out of time for such a big rally.
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#173 Catflap

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 04:29 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 23 2010, 07:31 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
"New highs"?
Anything is possible, I suppose. But I think you should accept : You are running out of time for such a big rally.


I agree - minimum of two weeks and maximum of 3 weeks to reach the old highs and maybe exceed them a little. Just doesn't seem possible, but a massive amount of shorting is keeping a lid on prices at the moment. A big short squeeze is what will cause prices to quickly reverse back to their old highs and exceed them a little and that could be swift as the tiered level of stops under the old highs get hit in a domino fashion.

QUOTE (Catflap @ Aug 22 2010, 07:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
..... the fractal work on my K-wave theory was saying September 3, 2010 after the April peak was in. Adding the same number of calender days from the October 27, 2008 low to the April 23, 2010 peak onto the March 9, 2009 lows gave a predicted peak of September 3, 2010.


[attachment=1473:18_month...advances.png]

This chart probably explains the 18-month cyclical bull market better - had the March lows not taken out the November 2008 lows then we would have had a final top (maybe double top) in May 2010. But the absolute lows came on March 9, 2009 which gives us an 18-month cyclical advance from there.

Had I thought about this more, then I would have predicted a major low would have come in late June/early July which I've shown on the chart.


#174 DrBubb

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Posted 24 August 2010 - 12:49 AM

QUOTE (Catflap @ Aug 24 2010, 01:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I agree - minimum of two weeks and maximum of 3 weeks to reach the old highs and maybe exceed them a little. Just doesn't seem possible, but a massive amount of shorting is keeping a lid on prices at the moment. A big short squeeze is what will cause prices to quickly reverse back to their old highs and exceed them a little and that could be swift as the tiered level of stops under the old highs get hit in a domino fashion.

imho:
A little pop in the next few days might set up a good drop

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#175 djia977

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Posted 15 September 2010 - 02:56 PM

QUOTE (DrBubb @ Aug 24 2010, 01:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
imho:
A little pop in the next few days might set up a good drop

Or even an 11% surge in the RUT (9% on the SPX)

What's the expert view on this...Catflap?

#176 Catflap

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 09:16 PM

QUOTE (djia977 @ Sep 15 2010, 03:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Or even an 11% surge in the RUT (9% on the SPX)

What's the expert view on this...Catflap?


Just sent you a PM djia - good to see you here.


I don't know if you've seen what I posted on HPC 2 or 3 days ago - basically summerises (my thoughts off here) where I think the market is going now and if you look back on DrBubb's diary you will also see it there. I'm bullish into next week - bullish % index is still too low for a cycle top (low 60's) and much more other stuff. Ultimately we will go back to the old highs and exceed them somewhat as the cumulative A/D has been breaking to new highs.


#177 OneHundred

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Posted 24 October 2010 - 10:09 AM

Where's Catflap?

I wonder how he is getting on with his trading?

#178 GoafClonrYror

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Posted 06 February 2011 - 01:29 AM

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#179 GoafClonrYror

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Posted 06 February 2011 - 01:34 AM

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#180 Wrellulseduro

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Posted 06 February 2011 - 02:19 AM

high fives

Right on with Mary Poppins and the James Bond movies. They suck real much. Also, Thesps list is objective - best movies made. I think that is silly. Mine are just my favorite movies.




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