Regarding the Nasdaq lows - on Stockcharts it does look like November 2008 were the absolute lows but on Yahoo it does show the March lows as being lower
November 20, 2008 = 1316.12
March 9, 2009 = 1268.64http://uk.finance.ya...=0;logscale=off
Quite right! Strange, I was sure the Nasdaq bottomed out in 2008. But that would suggest the market could drag on a bit further into Q3 as you suggest. Hmm. Interesting. The March low (vs the October/November low that "should" have happened) has certainly thrown a spanner in the works
For what its worth, I am still keeping an eye on the alternative overlay that suggests we might see a top in 4 or 5 weeks, given the recent peak in RSI above 90 (highest reading since 2000).
Good work - that second chart fits the timeline better/exactly with an end of August peak date and a Bradley turn date on June 26, which is also my 'rally from a 4th full moon'
March 11, 2009
July 7, 2009
November 2, 2009
February 28, 2010
June 26, 2010
Could you clarify exactly what you mean by 'non-adjusted' and explain what you've done - I'm intrigued, but don't fully understand!. I think you were also saying about the Nasdaq being a better graph to use for the long wave on the other thread - absolutely. It's amazing how the it compares from 2000 to the 1929 to 1949 Dow and the size of the crash compared to the Dow from 2000.
As for the Nasdaq 2000 vs Nasdaq 2010 comparison, I'm not sure how "valid" this is. What prompted me to look was the recent peak in RSI, the highest since 2000.
On the non-adjusted graph, the time scale is the same on both graphs. On the adjusted graph, I compressed the time scale on the Nasdaq 2000 to match the March low with the recent peak in RSI. This is with the idea that cycles exhibit similar structural characteristics, but can stretch in time?
However, I still think the Nikkei / Nasdaq comparison is the more useful one
"Have these genealogists of morals had even the remotest suspicion that, for example, the major moral concept Schuld [guilt] has its origin in the very material concept Schulden [debts]?" - Nietzsche, On the Genealogy of Morals