I am glad that you figured out how to evaluate your own edge that helped you to make a number of good calls and boosted your trading confidence. Surely, this gives you a great advantage. I remember a number of your posts related to K-wave theory and I will revisit and try to reanalyse them for myself.
Your right, it has boosted my confidence especially to go against what others are saying - I am contrarian in many respects anyway.
I think the K-wave theory will be pretty good for the long term trend and although it's as yet unproven if it works or not, it does kind of fit in with what Harry Dent predicts and says, namely:
'Humans do predictable things' - they work, get married, have children, buy houses, reach peak spending and retire at certain points in their life. I believe that the stockmarket action is understandable when you look at it through the 4 different seasons and see the points at which the baby boomers are at.
I understand and am trying to follow a similar path. I am not too keen on fractals as they do fail very often, so do patterns and the lagging indicators of course. I have to admit that I don't have much experience yet. However, I do have scientific and engineering background and, at present, I am trying to evaluate individual probabilities of various patterns and indicators in the markets that I am trading. The aim is to do a simple statistical analysis to evaluate an overall probability. Once a good pool of data has been sampled I will code it in to give a semi-automatic signal for placing the trade. This can be easily done for indicators and even candlestics. The problem with the fractals especially the 18-year cycle ones is in the accuracy of the data and the insufficient sampling.
As I mentioned before, I need to review your work posted on GEI before, in order to see how you've overcome the above limitation with the K-waves. I will probably ask a few more questions very soon, if you don't mind.
I think anyone from an engineering background has an advantage with solving puzzles - I studied mechanical engineering and believe there is logic to what happens in the markets. I've read Fred Harrison's books and articles and know there is an 18-year cycle in 'human activity' so when it reaches a peak in property speculation like in 1973, 1989 and 2007 then a recession follows. This produces stress in the financial system which causes currencies to become volatile as investors seek out the safest place for their money - this activity in my opinion is not random.
Because the dollar is the reserve currency there is first a flight to safety and then a flight back out as recovery looms and the recession eventually ends as growth goes positive again. This action IMO is what produces the fractal pattern, so it has to complete in the same way as the other two as people look to make money again and take on risk in the months ahead.
That's why I don't think you need lots of samples to prove that it works - human behaviour is predictable.
I'll be happy to try and answer other questions on my fractal theories.