The 18 year cycle fits well with the narrative of the US and UK. Is this the case with HK? Or is it on a shorter cycle. In the current cycle the bottom was in 2003, when was the previous bottom? Was the low after the "Tiananmen incident", the mini-recession in the previous cycle?
I dont have the HK property index data before these charts:
What I do have is Stock price data.
Here is the Main bellwether : Henderson Land (HK:12) ... update
Same chart (HK:12), on a log scale ... update
And here's another:
Cheung Kong (HK:1), on a logarhymic scale ... update
: 1 year
== ==HONG KONG's 18 YEAR CYCLE
I had to do a bit of digging to find this - but I finally found it!
It is very clear, here on this chart, which is Cheung Kong's stock price, expressed in US$- traded in the US.
Cheung Kong in US$ (CHEUY) ... update / compare: US-CTX
Here's what I see:
+ An important low in 1983 (US$0.16 in Oct.1983)
+ 4 years up to a mid-cycle peak ($1.75 in Sept. 1987) - that's over 10x !
+ A quick mid-cycle correction ($0.75 in Dec.1987, that's only 3 months down)
.. This quick cycle was driven by the 1987 crash. An alternative low, my preferred one,
.. after an A-B-C move might be July 1989 at $0.87.
+ 8 years up to a Cycle peak (US$12.60 in Aug.1997 - that's 79x up in 14 years
+ 13 months down to a A-low* at $3.73 on 1 Sept.1998 : -70% from 1997's peak
+ A B-wave rally to $15.42, 14 Feb. 2000 (CHEUY high, but not in some other builders, like HK:12)
+ A minor low in 2001 at $8.20 on 19 Oct. (when the 18 year cycle "wanted" a low) : -46.8%
+ A lower low - C-wave - at $5.20 on 24 April 2003
, thanks to SARS : -66.3% down from 1997's peak
*Note: the correction from the 1997 peak is much clearer in the chart of Henderson (HK:12)
Henderson /HK:12 chart for 1996-2004
: update 2001-2008
The next mid-cycle peak was due in 2007/8, counting 7 years up from the 'expected' 2001 low.
And I reckon that we have seen it.