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#21 Wanderer

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Posted 17 February 2010 - 05:59 PM

Well, lots of mistakes including letting my shorts run. Ho hum.

I did add to my gold, silver and silver wheaton (NYSE: SLW) two days ago and have enjoyed a little pop.

That said, I'm going through one of my nervous investment phases. If I wasn't worried about a substantial drop in the value of the pound, I'd be tempted to go for cash now until all is clearer.

#22 romans holiday

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Posted 18 February 2010 - 01:46 AM

QUOTE (Wanderer @ Feb 18 2010, 02:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Well, lots of mistakes including letting my shorts run. Ho hum.

I did add to my gold, silver and silver wheaton (NYSE: SLW) two days ago and have enjoyed a little pop.

That said, I'm going through one of my nervous investment phases. If I wasn't worried about a substantial drop in the value of the pound, I'd be tempted to go for cash now until all is clearer.


Why not put a chunk of your reserves into the US dollar if you're worried about the pound? That way if assets do decline, you will be in a position to take advantage to buy when they are cheaper.... as the dollar may be one of the few currencies to hold its value, or even strengthen, at a time of deleveraging.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#23 DrBubb

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Posted 18 February 2010 - 01:53 AM

Good luck with this, W.

QUOTE (Wanderer @ Jan 30 2010, 10:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My unusual situation means that I do 'sweat it' a bit on trades due to the fact that, in a bad month, I can lose almost a year's post-tax salary. In a good month, the reverse can happen. In many ways I'm more dependent on my trading for my future lifestyle than on my job (although my job pays my day to day needs overseas). In this sense I've become more of a 'full-time' trader than I ever anticipated. And I'm not sure I'm very good at the psychology of it.

It is probably wise to have a laser focus on "what you can lose", since you can control the amount you have at risk.

Cutting the losers (somehow), and letting winners run is good, old advice.

Also, I think that 2010 will be a very tough year to make money on the long side.
I am building a position in long-dated, Jan.2011 Calls on SDS (a 2x Bear instrument)
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#24 Wanderer

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 04:15 PM

Evening all,

Been away for a few days. Now up to record levels in Sterling, but largely due to sterling's fall against the dollar and recent bullishness in Silver and Gold.

Since last I wrote I've added shares in SLW and RGLD and also upped my quantity of silver. I've also bought in some inverse GBP/USD etfs that have done nicely. I'm now down to about 30% cash, but with most of it still in sterling - bits in Euro and Dollars. Seeing that our house offers didn't come through I'm now considering leaving the sterling building altogether - although am nervous of exiting at a temporary low.

Recent gains mean I'm almost tempted to cash in most of my shares and some of my gold, but the question is then 'where to put it'? I can't easily shift money into dollars although I could buy proxies through the sort of ETFs described above. It is difficult for me to access more 'exotic' currencies like Canadian Dollars - but if people can suggest how, glad to learn. I'm also tempted to start re-shorting the indexes, as they look high again, but my previous losses at this game are holding me back...

#25 littledavesab

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 06:22 PM

QUOTE (Wanderer @ Mar 2 2010, 04:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I can't easily shift money into dollars although I could buy proxies through the sort of ETFs described above. It is difficult for me to access more 'exotic' currencies like Canadian Dollars - but if people can suggest how, glad to learn.


Barclays have a foreign currency account - must have a std bank account with them first, sign up in store - or HSBC have similar

http://www.bank.barc.../P1242557963858

There is also an ETF for the Chinese currency

I need to give all this a bit more thought/action. Trouble is timing is not the best with Sterling the way it is.


Inflation / Deflation ?? How about STAGFLATION everyone is right but everyone is wrong!
- (Update) Everyone wrong...... except Goldman Sachs apparently !!!!!!!

If you have an idea for podcast of the week post it here: http://www.greenener...pic=10990&st=40

#26 Wanderer

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Posted 03 March 2010 - 06:00 PM

Well, my itchy profit-taking fingers couldn't resist selling my riskiest small junior mining stocks.

Best of all was LUNA GOLD, returning 600% since this time last year.
SAN GOLD RESOURCES yielded 350%
and ENDEAVOUR MINING yielded a paltry 60% return over the year ;-)

I know these could continue rising, but I've earned indecent sums from them and feel that I shouldn't try my luck any further (they are - for me with my broker - difficult stocks to sell, you need to phone and they get a price from Canada with a horrendous spread: and so I wanted to get out while the going was good).

I may recycle some into SLW or RGLD if I feel bullish in a day or two: I can trade these two online.

I note the pound is bouncing a bit and wonder whether to use the moment to short it again by using the Short GBP:Long USD ETF. Thoughts?

#27 riggerbeautz

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Posted 03 March 2010 - 11:05 PM

QUOTE (Wanderer @ Mar 3 2010, 06:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
SAN GOLD RESOURCES yielded 350%

I know these could continue rising, but I've earned indecent sums from them and feel that I shouldn't try my luck any further (they are - for me with my broker - difficult stocks to sell, you need to phone and they get a price from Canada with a horrendous spread: and so I wanted to get out while the going was good).

Nothing specific to say other than thats the 2nd time i've seen that stock mentioned today, someone said what a good stock it was.

Just rang a bell, after a 350% rise think i'll watch with interest where it goes, but not for buying.

b.t.w if you are picking these sort of winners, I think you're modestly down playing your talent smile.gif
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#28 romans holiday

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Posted 03 March 2010 - 11:12 PM

QUOTE (Wanderer @ Mar 4 2010, 03:00 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I note the pound is bouncing a bit and wonder whether to use the moment to short it again by using the Short GBP:Long USD ETF. Thoughts?

What's the ticker symbol for that?

Looks like you made some good trades there. What currency do you take profits in [wnat's your core currency]?
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#29 GTG

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Posted 04 March 2010 - 12:01 AM

QUOTE (romans holiday @ Mar 3 2010, 11:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
What's the ticker symbol for that?


LSE:SGBP

Collateral is held by Bank of New York Mellon as is the collateral for some of their ETC's as a result of the AIG meltdown scare. Don't know what would happen if BNY bit the dust, perhaps collateral is segregated? As with all ETFs best to check out how well they track what they are supposed too.
The entire modern financial system is based upon a very small group of people having the power to create money out of thin air.

#30 Wanderer

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Posted 10 March 2010 - 12:51 PM

Did a lot of selling yesterday. Sold all my gold at BV and all my PHAG silver. I did this to realise all my capital gains before I return to the UK and also because I've done well recently and don't want to see everything 'slip back' by waiting too long to sell - as has happened previously.

I've now gone and bought a proxy for 2/3 of the gold as a way of staying in the game and reducing sterling exposure, but I've stopped it (don't usually do this) to limit losses.

Upshot: my upside is now limited (although I'm short sterling and the US markets) but my downside is pretty secure too, so I know I can go back to the UK and buy a house if I want to do so without worrying about Mr Bank. Thank you GEI!

#31 DrBubb

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Posted 10 March 2010 - 02:33 PM

"Did a lot of selling yesterday."
Your timing could prove good.

..double post. I hope you dont mind, W.

FTSE's rally could stop here - near 5,600



In edit:
Late in Wednesday's trading FTSE did pop up over the Orange line ... update

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#32 Wanderer

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Posted 12 March 2010 - 05:34 AM

Well, my proxy gold was stopped out and so I'm sitting with virtually no shares and all cash (sterling). I've a short position on the indices equivalent to about 10% of this pile plus a short position on sterling equivalent to a further 10%. Otherwise I'm pretty much all cash. I feel (please please!) that the market MUST turn soon. And I know I'll never get the timing right, but every day the markets continue up hurts! There was another merit to cashing in - ie settling all my gains overseas before I return to the UK so that I don't pay CGT. That is worth 18%!

I guess I'm now going to sit and probably I'll continue to build my short positions gradually, although I don't want to overdo it. - I'm taking Catflap et al's cautions with seriousness (PS - Thank you Catflap for being here and adding to the variety of views: we are a better forum for your civilised bullishness here!).

Must keep reminding self: have far more cash in sterling now than I ever anticipated 3 or 4 or even 1 year ago; can buy much nicer house than ever before. All good! Don't worry about chasing every last cent....

#33 Wanderer

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Posted 15 March 2010 - 06:34 PM

I've now completed my re-jigging and have realised all my capital gains. I only carry capital losses now. I can thus begin re-investing as and where I want and am open to hearing the views of any readers out there (Hello!! Is there anybody out there??? :-) )

My portfolio stands at:

Cash (Mostly sterling, but some Dollars and Euros - perhaps 10% of each) - 84%
Short Sterling ETF - 2%
Gold shares - 2%
Short Equities - 12%.

My current thought is that my first priority may be to diversify away from pounds - either through a gold proxy or a short-pound ETF.
I might also consider re-establishing a gold position.

I'm up about 4.5% since I started the diary, so am reasonably pleased, especially as I've realised all these gains and so eliminated my tax exposure prior to return to the UK.

All the above is subject to whether we can find a rental house in our target village in Kent/West Sussex or whether we end up buying (in which case a whole chunk will go into property).

Wanderer

#34 romans holiday

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Posted 15 March 2010 - 11:30 PM

Just a suggestion, why not think about staying long on a certain percentage of gold. I think it makes sense to think of it as a currency and that way any currency concerns you have about the pound will be covered. Of course, if you are looking to buy property in Britland then it makes sense to be in pounds.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#35 Wanderer

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Posted 27 March 2010 - 03:44 PM

Thanks RH. I do still have a few month's salary tucked away in physical but have sold out my BV etc for the time being.

I've taken steps to close my CFD account. This thread is partly about psychology and the way trading affects you. I've decided that I'm happier without the CFD account. It takes up most of my thinking even though the amounts involved are small (before leverage). I've not been very successful on it and so I've decided to avoid leverage and stick with investing only what I have so that I can never have a position liquidated under my nose due to margin issues.

I remain much as last week but have increased my sterling short to good effect. I've also slightly increased my FTSE short, but less successfully...

My next purchase is likely to be VXX.

I'm ready to get back into gold if we definitively decide not to buy a house for a couple of years - I want to be able to sit out a dive in gold prices.

#36 romans holiday

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Posted 28 March 2010 - 04:34 AM

QUOTE (Wanderer @ Mar 28 2010, 12:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm ready to get back into gold if we definitively decide not to buy a house for a couple of years - I want to be able to sit out a dive in gold prices.

Check out the charts for the last dips in gold. In 2008, when gold dipped [in dollars] the Sterling price just kept going up [Sterling weakened also]. The same happened recently when gold came off $1200. Consider that IF you were waiting to buy a sizeable gold position on a decent dip, you may have to be waiitng in dollars.

Or, perhaps you're expecting the pound to strengthen shortly. smile.gif


But then VXX is a dollar denominated instrument which should move contrary to gold.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#37 Wanderer

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Posted 26 April 2010 - 05:24 PM

Hi All,

A month away on holidays and other stuff.

My portfolio is currently:

80% cash (of which 80% sterling)
7% pound short/dollar long ETF
12% S&P and FTSE short ETFs
1% a duff 'minor miner' that might one day explode...
And a little 'rainy day' physical G+S 'under the mattress'

I've put my CFD account to sleep. I'm now holding only capital losses (all the ETFs above are in the red and so I'm down a bit from my late Feb peak) and no capital gains. My previous liquidations have taken all my profits off the table.

I'm about to start re-investing, conscious that the best time to do this might be ahead of the UK election/final resolution of the Greek Bond crisis, but also wary of the uncertainty involved.

Distilled thoughts on a post-card welcome. I'm quite tempted to increase my (in-loss) ETFs shorting the GBP and the major stock markets. I have no faith in the rally of the GBP over the last few days or the continued gravity-defying rise of the stock markets. I've mixed views on gold - it could shoot up, but a Greek crisis might prompt another round of deleveraging and profit taking before this happens.

More widely, I'm returning to the UK soon and will probably rent a house. IF (and only if - no need to warn me it isn't a good time to buy), would people advise me to:

- buy a house cash and live in it - with no mortgage but no savings either;
- take a mortgage (fixed rate - 10 or 25 years) based on my salary and invest the mortgage into stocks/gold etc., paying the mortgage from my (safe) salary; or
- a new idea: go to a private bank and get them to lend me money to buy a house based on the collateral of my cash/investments. The logic being I'd use the growth of these investments (including no doubt some UK or other bonds to provide some 'risk free' undergirding) to pay the interest on the house loan, thus getting on the housing ladder (OK, I take the point about timing) whilst keeping my capital intact for the future.

A good and sensible friend (in many ways) was advocating the 3rd option to me on holiday. He has done it and it has worked well for him. What do folk think? It strikes me as the potentially best and worst option...

Wanderer


#38 riggerbeautz

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Posted 28 April 2010 - 08:06 PM

QUOTE (Wanderer @ Apr 26 2010, 06:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Hi All,

A month away on holidays and other stuff.

My portfolio is currently:

80% cash (of which 80% sterling)
7% pound short/dollar long ETF
12% S&P and FTSE short ETFs
1% a duff 'minor miner' that might one day explode...
And a little 'rainy day' physical G+S 'under the mattress'

I've put my CFD account to sleep. I'm now holding only capital losses (all the ETFs above are in the red and so I'm down a bit from my late Feb peak) and no capital gains. My previous liquidations have taken all my profits off the table.

I'm about to start re-investing, conscious that the best time to do this might be ahead of the UK election/final resolution of the Greek Bond crisis, but also wary of the uncertainty involved.

Distilled thoughts on a post-card welcome. I'm quite tempted to increase my (in-loss) ETFs shorting the GBP and the major stock markets. I have no faith in the rally of the GBP over the last few days or the continued gravity-defying rise of the stock markets. I've mixed views on gold - it could shoot up, but a Greek crisis might prompt another round of deleveraging and profit taking before this happens.

More widely, I'm returning to the UK soon and will probably rent a house. IF (and only if - no need to warn me it isn't a good time to buy), would people advise me to:

- buy a house cash and live in it - with no mortgage but no savings either;
- take a mortgage (fixed rate - 10 or 25 years) based on my salary and invest the mortgage into stocks/gold etc., paying the mortgage from my (safe) salary; or
- a new idea: go to a private bank and get them to lend me money to buy a house based on the collateral of my cash/investments. The logic being I'd use the growth of these investments (including no doubt some UK or other bonds to provide some 'risk free' undergirding) to pay the interest on the house loan, thus getting on the housing ladder (OK, I take the point about timing) whilst keeping my capital intact for the future.

A good and sensible friend (in many ways) was advocating the 3rd option to me on holiday. He has done it and it has worked well for him. What do folk think? It strikes me as the potentially best and worst option...

Wanderer


Now that should be a bit better?

As for your 3rd option, do you really feel that confident of trading success? Think about that my only advice. Whats that old maxim, never invest/gamble more than you can afford to lose?
Never stop questioning - Einstein

When you blame others you give up your power to change - Douglas Noel Adams

Beware of MOOD HOOVERS they have a mission.

#39 huntergatherer

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Posted 28 April 2010 - 08:53 PM

QUOTE (riggerbeautz @ Apr 28 2010, 09:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Now that should be a bit better?

As for your 3rd option, do you really feel that confident of trading success? Think about that my only advice. Whats that old maxim, never invest/gamble more than you can afford to lose?


Reminds me of the 'Names' who lost 'everything'-house and home-when Lloyds Insurance went under in the 1980s.

#40 littledavesab

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Posted 29 April 2010 - 02:02 PM

QUOTE (huntergatherer @ Apr 28 2010, 09:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
[/b]

Reminds me of the 'Names' who lost 'everything'-house and home-when Lloyds Insurance went under in the 1980s.


Ah but they were sold a supposedly safe investment as a tax dodge that turned out to be a bit of a ponzi

Inflation / Deflation ?? How about STAGFLATION everyone is right but everyone is wrong!
- (Update) Everyone wrong...... except Goldman Sachs apparently !!!!!!!

If you have an idea for podcast of the week post it here: http://www.greenener...pic=10990&st=40




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