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Trading Volatility, Ballasted by Gold


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#261 littledavesab

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 06:00 PM

Hang on a sec. Silverfinger well and truly backed up his truck long ago.

Don't you think you are over-stating your case here?? I imagine you are in fact backing up your briefcase in order to convert your monthly wages to metal. :lol:

Me? Just sold goooold in order to put another buy order on a leveraged silver ETF [with silver at around 30]. If it works out, imagine I'll be the first to sell once silver hits 100. There's an exit strategy for you.


Out of interest RH, do you think it is a good idea to be in a leveraged ETF for a prolonged period? Tend to see these as only suitable for shorter term directional moves myself.

Observes that none of us (presumably) know the size of Goldfingers pay packet he might just need a pick up truck for his monthly purchase. :lol:
Inflation / Deflation ?? How about STAGFLATION everyone is right but everyone is wrong!
- (Update) Everyone wrong...... except Goldman Sachs apparently !!!!!!!

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#262 romans holiday

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:08 PM

R.H looking at my LSIL we are holding around the low 50's, the support is 40 and any drop ought to go there, but why should it drop anytime NOW, around 20% ish? Can't quite get my head round the fundamental reason.

Like you I would also load up some more if it did.

No fundamental reason. More just looking at the chart. Silver went very fast from 26 to 34, so you'd expect a pull-back before heading higher. If that pull-back doesn't occur I'd think about buying again at around the current level.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#263 romans holiday

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:11 PM

Out of interest RH, do you think it is a good idea to be in a leveraged ETF for a prolonged period? Tend to see these as only suitable for shorter term directional moves myself.

Risky, yes. Which is why I won't want to be in it too long. Around two years should suffice with the idea of silver going from 26 to 100. 100 is the selling target, and the exit plan.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#264 romans holiday

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:15 PM

R.H looking at my LSIL we are holding around the low 50's, the support is 40 and any drop ought to go there, but why should it drop anytime NOW, around 20% ish? Can't quite get my head round the fundamental reason.

Like you I would also load up some more if it did.

Posted Image

As posted by Warpig on the silver thread.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#265 romans holiday

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 11:48 PM

Posted Image

A higher high looks to confirm the bottom is in.

A retracement to around 30 also looks possible over the next month before heading higher.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#266 romans holiday

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Posted 29 February 2012 - 09:39 PM

Posted Image

Here's the retracement I was looking for. Heavy buy order is still on at 50.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#267 romans holiday

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Posted 03 March 2012 - 08:36 PM

Posted Image


Could be a month of consolidation ahead for silver. Could go as low as 30 odd. 'The' low [26] looks to be in.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#268 romans holiday

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Posted 03 March 2012 - 09:38 PM

Check out the recent correlation between the Euro and silver. They are both moving in tandem against the dollar. If the Euro comes under pressure next week due to a refocussing on Greece then silver should also come off a bit.

http://www.reuters.c...E81Q0E520120302

Euro falls as Greece moves back in spotlight


(Reuters) - The euro ended a roller coaster week sharply lower and may come under further selling pressure as Greece's bailout moves back into focus, and as the European Central Bank chimes in on monetary policy next week.

The euro dropped against the dollar for a third straight day on Friday and was on track for its worst week since mid-December after debt-burdened Spain challenged the European Union's new fiscal pact.

Spain, the euro zone's fourth-largest economy, set a softer 2012 deficit target than originally agreed to under the euro zone's austerity drive.
.....


Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#269 romans holiday

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 05:43 AM

Posted Image

Half way to 50.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#270 DrBubb

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 12:34 PM

What do you think of VIX at this stage, RH?

It looks like it is set to move higher, and the gap up was closed yesterday
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#271 romans holiday

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 02:13 AM

What do you think of VIX at this stage, RH?

It looks like it is set to move higher, and the gap up was closed yesterday

Not following VIX much these days. More focussed on the trade above.

Silver looks due for a bit of consolidation at this level. If silver comes back of to 30 odd over the next month or so, another heavy buy order of AGQ will be hit. Think the low at 26 is in, but silver has run up a bit fast here.


Posted Image
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#272 riggerbeautz

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 07:23 AM

Silver looks due for a bit of consolidation at this level. If silver comes back of to 30 odd over the next month or so, another heavy buy order of AGQ will be hit. Think the low at 26 is in, but silver has run up a bit fast here.



R.H I'd love to see Silver back at 30, it would probably get close to the LSIL 40 support, which would indicate a strong bounce for me, or massive fail. For now I've really gambled and taken small beer profits off the table; only because mine is a ISA paper trade.

Still buying by other means ;)
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#273 romans holiday

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 08:05 PM

R.H I'd love to see Silver back at 30, it would probably get close to the LSIL 40 support, which would indicate a strong bounce for me, or massive fail. For now I've really gambled and taken small beer profits off the table; only because mine is a ISA paper trade.

Still buying by other means ;)

We've seen a two month run-up so a month of consolidation is a fair bet. I'm thinking a brief dip to 30 odd then a year of slow re-building in the high 30s and 40s. The model I have in mind is the long consolidation after the 50% correction in '08.

I can't see myself taking any profits on this trade for a couple of years. But an advantage of this trade [a heavy trade] is that when I do sell it will serve as an exit plan of sorts.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#274 romans holiday

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 02:19 AM

Posted Image

Here's the retracement I was looking for. Heavy buy order is still on at 50.



Posted Image


Retracement in silver continuing.

Buy order at 50 [2nd buy order, got the first at 40... both are heavy buys], but will be getting itchy fingers at 55 no doubt.




Posted Image

A longer term view. Looks like a solid bottoming pattern to me, with a higher high.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#275 romans holiday

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 07:45 PM

Why AGQ over SLV? Just wondering

Because I'm looking to trade the volatility in silver. I only buy and hold gold.

The idea with silver is to use the volatility of silver to increase my holding of US dollars. This also acts as a hedge against an equally heavy holding in gold.

I don't consider it a complete hedge though and see gold and dollars as complementary forms of liquidity. Gold should still outperform dollars, but by trading those dollars against silver the dollar position may well outperform the B&H in gold... as gold is only rising 20 odd % yearly against the dollar.

This heavy and leveraged trade also provides an exit plan. There's a good chance that buying double silver at 26 and again around 30 will give over a 1000% return if silver spikes through 100 in the next 2 or 3 years. Best to sell on this spike when it comes because every chance that silver will then correct to 50.

I don't think silver leverages gold, all it leverages is the volatility to both sides. In the aggregate it should appreciate at a similiar rate to gold... 20 odd % a year.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#276 romans holiday

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 08:29 PM

It was certainly an excellent entry point.

And where do you reckon the Dollar Index / Gold would be trading at with Silver at $100?

Gold? It's on the base-line now [1600] so in 2 years the base-line should be around 2300/ 2400 [20 odd % yearly appreciation]. From there it should go on a wild spike at some point. Assuming the spike is similiar to the recent one which saw gold go from 1500 to 1900, gold could predictably spike from say 2300 to 3000.

So silver spiking to 100 could see gold spike to 3000.



Dollar index? Haven't the foggiest. Only doubt it will collapse. :rolleyes:
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#277 romans holiday

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Posted 15 March 2012 - 08:19 PM

Posted Image


50 day MA moving up with silver still coming off a bit here.

Looks like a good buying opportunity is shaping up.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#278 romans holiday

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Posted 20 March 2012 - 08:52 PM

Posted Image


With AGQ close to a heavy buy order placed at 50, have bought it here with half the funds. Rest of funds still placed for 50.



Bubb, if you read this can you move this thread back over to the Open Blogs section as do not post on this thread often and can therefore be difficult to find. Cheers.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#279 romans holiday

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 03:52 AM

Posted Image


With AGQ close to a heavy buy order placed at 50, have bought it here with half the funds. Rest of funds still placed for 50.


Posted Image


Close enough to 50, so have bought with the last of my earmarked funds.


I've now pretty much exposed to precious metals with all my liquid worth, with this trade balanced against core gold. Will be keen to reduce a lot of that exposure on the next silver spike. Target of 600 odd in two years or so.
Modern money "shorts" the currency, and is backed by debt. The debt is real. A debt deflation will lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging, where the short-covering of currencies will strengthen currencies relative to asset prices. At the global level, in the FX market, central currencies will benefit from deleveraging at the expense of peripheral currencies. Due to instability and uncertainty, gold will benefit against all currencies as it continues to be re-monetized.

Hold on to your hats for hyper-deflation, where cash is king, and gold the King of cash.
[Silver? A Volatile Queen].

#280 DrBubb

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 08:04 PM

bump
The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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